tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post4818909139306443356..comments2023-06-19T09:26:26.664-04:00Comments on NJ HORSEPLAYER: When To Play (Contest) Defense Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-15562371552826365582012-09-04T23:25:12.537-04:002012-09-04T23:25:12.537-04:00Anonymous (please share your ID, to be more person...Anonymous (please share your ID, to be more personal), I can only control my selection. Based on a past contest where I was in a similar situation, I was a spot "out of the money" going into the last race and landed on a second-choice horse (somewhere around 2-1 or 5-2, I don't recall exactly) that seemed to make a ton of sense and ultimately won, and surprised that no one ahead of me went with the same selection. That call moved me up not only 1, but 2 spots. Remember, too, that I was only $6.40 out of second place. Now, granted, Turbulent Descent produced only $5.40. However, it would have taken the two players right above me to pick the same horse, which isn't necessarily a given; and slightly higher odds could have put me as high as second place, depending on how others went. However, in my case here, I only had to worry about the players below me in the standings, since I had a big enough cushion to "go long" with a horse as a defensive measure. Bill Holobowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-5210740927945404092012-09-04T16:44:18.296-04:002012-09-04T16:44:18.296-04:00I don't understand if this had been an NHC qua...I don't understand if this had been an NHC qually and you were sitting 4th, $.80 out of the 3rd and final qualifying spot, why you would play the big fave? End game strategy is always interesting but wouldn't you think that the person in 3rd would play the big fave and you would need to play other than the fave or risk being closed out by their selection?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-38971218048702588982012-08-30T07:17:21.336-04:002012-08-30T07:17:21.336-04:00Bill,
I employ a similar strategy late in handica...Bill,<br /><br />I employ a similar strategy late in handicapping contests. If you are playing in a feeder contest or first round contest and are merely trying to move on there is no point in picking chalk to move up a spot or two.<br /><br />Your final race strategy was the best approach and the point you made about picking the favorite if it had been a NHC qualifying contest was spot on. Had I used that strategy I would have qualified for the NHC in 2008.<br /><br />In the last race of a NHC Qualify contest I passed on class dropper Vacare, who was in questionable form but outclassed the field. I went with second choice America's Friend who faded in the stretch. The person one spot behind me picked Gotta Have Her, who dead heated for second giving the guy $3.40, which put him $1.00 ahead of me for the final NHC spot.<br /><br />http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=9&BorP=P&TID=DMR&CTRY=USA&DT=8/30/2008&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB<br /><br />LennyLennyhttp://www.equinometry.comnoreply@blogger.com