tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-57688875277125547812024-02-07T23:12:15.655-05:00NJ HORSEPLAYERRamblings of a weekend handicapper's bid to qualify annually for the $3 million NHC in Las Vegas. Three-time qualifier with an eye toward playable long-shots and beating myself up.Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.comBlogger341125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-89741021318571465582023-05-19T22:59:00.002-04:002023-05-19T22:59:18.748-04:00Preakness Stakes: It's Time To Perform<p>I'll be quick. There's nothing incredibly appealing about the 2023 Preakness other than Kentucky Derby champion Mage has as good a chance as any to run for the Triple Crown in three weeks in the Belmont.</p><p>This year's Preakness field scratched down to 7 (from 8) and Mage goes off as the 8/5 morning line favorite. No argument when considering the field includes a 50-1 shipper with a low-level stakes win in California and a Maryland bred that's 20-1 and boasts a few non-graded stakes wins at Laurel Park.</p><p>No excuses if Mage can't beat this field, which doesn't really feature anyone particularly fast.</p><p>I'll take a shot on a horse that Mage beat in a maiden race in Florida in February.</p><p><b>Perform</b>, breaking from post 6, is 15-1 and may not trade at such high odds considering the short field, but I think he could hold in the double digits and provide value.</p><p>The call here is that Perform is a later-blooming three year old who has much upside. The horse easily broke his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs in March, then rose in class to a non-graded stakes win at Laurel Park on April 15 where he was compromised several times in the stretch, shifted in and out throughout the stretch and exploded late for a narrow victory. I played him in handicapping contests on both occasions and believe he's at least the second-best Preakness prospect. </p><p>No crazy Preakness plays. I'll likely keep it simple and wager $50 to win. Not going to overthink it.</p><p>Otherwise, here's a few other horses I like in the Pick 5 sequence. No pound-the-table calls, though I'll play a straight daily double into the Preakness, using 5-1 third choice <b>#8 Wonderful Justice</b> in Race 11 (J.W. Murphy Stakes) with Perform. It'll be a $5 wager. </p><p><b>50c Pick 5 (Races 9-13):</b> 1, 3, 8 with 3, 5, 6, 11, 12 with 4, 10 with 8 with 6 = $15</p>Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-26206006409974776182023-05-06T09:16:00.004-04:002023-05-06T10:05:50.267-04:00Derby Day Wagers (Updated With Forte Scratch)It's Derby Day and time to put all of that race replay watching and analysis to work!<div><br /></div><div>Scroll down to the May 2 post for my full rundown of the field for today's Kentucky Derby. Above that you'll find a few horses I like in the Derby undercard starting with race 8, which starts the "Pick 5" wager where bettors can pick multiple horses but need winners of races 8-12 for a huge score. Ticket cost is a multiplier effect; so my combination of horses cost me $36. The nice part about Pick 5 is it can be played for a 50-cent denomination. I'm probably better of putting that $36 elsewhere but can't dismiss the allure of a big payout and being right once in my life on these wagers.</div><div><br /></div><div>I've allotted a $150 bankroll but maybe you can cherrypick some for yourself and scale back the base wagers, skip the Pick 5, etc. Top 3 selections in the sequence (a decent score if even only one wins):</div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Race 8 (2:46 p.m. ET, Pat Day Mile): #13, Damon's Mound (20-1)</li><li>Race 9 (3:40 p.m. ET, Great American Turf): #5, Johannes (15-1)</li><li>Race 11 (5:27 p.m. ET, Turf Classic): #3, Wolfie's Dynaghost (10-1)</li></ul><div>Otherwise, I've settled on #14, Angel of Empire (8-1), as my Kentucky Derby winner. I'll sprinkle in a few other horses into my trifecta ticket. Here's all my bets:</div></div><div><br /></div><div><b>Race 8:</b> $5 win-place #13, Damon's Mound ($10); $1 daily double 9-13 with 4, 5 ($10); 50-cent Pick 5: 9, 12, 13 with 4, 5 with 6, 7 with 3, 5, 8 with 14 ($18)</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Race 9:</b> $10 win #5, Johannes; $5 exacta box 4-5 ($10), 50-cent trifecta 2, 11 with 2, 4, 5, 11 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 11 ($9); $1 Pick 3: 4, 5 with 6 with 3, 5, 8 ($6); $2 daily double 4, 5 with 6, 7 ($8)</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Race 10:</b> $1 trifecta 6-7-ALL ($7); $3 daily double 7-3 ($6); $1 daily double 6 with 3, 5, 8 ($3)</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Race 11:</b> $5 win-place #3, Wolfie's Dynaghost ($10); $1 exacta key box 3 with 5, 8, 10 ($6); $1 trifecta box 3-5-8 ($6)</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Race 12 (Derby):</b> $10 win #14, Angel of Empire; $1 exacta key box 14 with 5, 13, 17, 22 ($8); $1 trifecta 14 with 5, 17, 22 with 5, 13, 17, 22 ($9)</div>Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-36112059008816479292023-05-04T22:24:00.001-04:002023-05-04T22:29:28.522-04:00Horses to Watch in Derby Pick 5 SequenceIn addition to the Kentucky Derby analysis provided below, here are a few horses I like in the Pick 5 sequence ending with the Run for the Roses.<div><br /></div><div><b>Race 8, Pat Day Mile</b></div><div><ul><li><b>Top Selection: #13, Damon's Mound (20-1): </b>The 14-horse field is fairly unimpressive. After watching all career race replays for each horse, this guy's first two stood out, to me, as potentially tops in the group. Boasts debut win last July at Churchill Downs that was eye-popping. Followed that by winning Grade 3 Saratoga Special in August, but after that is what's suspect. Trainer put Damon's Mound in two-turn race where he competed but tired. Then a 7-month layoff to 2023 debut in a turf sprint in mid-April at Keeneland. Can only assume goal was to discover what the horse likes, and to me it's sprinting at one turn. Will either sparkle or finish last. High reward vs. risk. Using with horses 9 thru 12 in exotics. Winner comes from the outside.</li></ul><div><b>Race 9, American Turf Stakes</b></div></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Top Selection: #5, Johannes (15-1): </b>Normally not a fan of turf horses from California, but this one has taken extremely well to the lawn after three dirt tries and scored dominant and visually captivating wins at three distances. Jockey Umberto Rispoli ships east with the horse and didn't have to ask one bit for effort. Maybe most impressive was win on quirky downhill turf course where Johannes was jostled, checked and surged with ease thru traffic to win going away. Just looks like an intelligent horse who gets a great stalking post just outside my close second selection, #4, Talk of the Nation (10-1). There's no chance the latter goes off more than 5-1 IMHO but there's still value. The favorite, #11, Carl Spackler (3-1) may be overbet based on his wins and by Caddyshack fans. But if you look at horses he beat last out, only one of the next six finishers broke his maiden and the others remain winless. Talented, but got a soft field that day. May do $10-type 4-5 exacta box. </li></ul><div><b>Race 10, Churchill Downs Stakes</b></div></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Top Selection: #7, Cody's Wish (4-5):</b> Not a particularly compelling betting race. Only concern here is horse making his first start of 2023 after winning the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile in early November. Enters winning 7 of last 8 and the only loss was second by a neck. The last four were <i>without </i>lasix, which is why I give the edge here over #6, Tejano Twist, who's clearly on the rise and I consider a win contender. Nothing creative; using these two and maybe #10, Endorsed, in Pick 5 ticket. </li></ul><div><b>Race 11, Turf Classic Stakes</b></div></div><div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><b>Top Selection: #3, Wolfie's Dynaghost (10-1):</b> Fun betting race since there's no standout. Speculating that jockey John Velazquez sets this runner for the lead and think he's got the stamina for the 9-furlong distance. Runner up of Wolfie's win on March 25 scored at big odds next out in the Elkhorn at Keeneland, which signals this guy beat a credible runner that day. Will use in exotics with #5, Up the Mark (4-1), and #8, Santin (9-2); the latter ran against Wolfie's in March and faceplanted out of the gate before finishing a game fourth. Is 2-for-2 at Churchill and can certainly beat this field. </li></ul><div><b>Main 50-cent Pick 5 ticket (Races 8-12): </b>9, 12, 13 with 4, 5 with 6, 7 with 3, 5, 8 with 14, 15: <b>$36</b></div></div>Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-49454050225905814292023-05-02T14:21:00.004-04:002023-05-06T09:29:09.320-04:00An Angelic 2023 Kentucky Derby?<p><span style="background-color: #fcff01;">(<i>Updated 5/6/23, 930a ET for scratches of Practical Move, Lord Miles, Continuar, Skinner and now Forte)</i></span></p><p>Kentucky Derby analysis is as much a crapshoot as predicting the NFL draft. </p><p>Much as the Houston Texans destroyed months or even a year of "experts" 2023 NFL mocks by first drafting a QB and then trading up to the No. 3 pick, a lot can happen once those Churchill Downs gates just before 7 p.m. ET this Saturday to destroy overprognostication. </p><div>It's best to take each of those distinct events for the entertainment value...and with a grain of salt. The same goes for consuming my analysis, though to me this feels a lot like 2007, one of my more successful Derby forays. </div><p>Toss reason out the window and recognize the <i>Run for the Roses</i> is a one-off crapshoot of up to 20 starters, many with no shot and merely vehicles to fulfill some thoroughbred owners' dreams to say they had a Derby starter. Sure, 80-1 Rich Strike got extremely lucky last year, but he went 0-5 in subsequent stakes starts and his jockey is back to riding the lesser racing circuits. </p><p>There are a lot of similar types entered this Saturday, but I suppose that's what makes it fun.</p><p>Now, I'm still a little bitter about Rich Strike running down my horse (Epicenter) in the stretch last year AND about top selection Maximum Security's DQ from first in 2019 but will give it another try in picking a winner. </p><p>This year I give the slight edge to <b>Angel of Empire </b>over <b>Forte</b>. Both will be prominent on my tickets and likely paired with <b>Tapit Trice</b><i> </i>and a few long-shots "underneath" as part of the trifecta box.</p><p>I'm not saying those horses will amount to 2007's top three -- Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin; all legends -- but much as two-year-old champ Street Sense was let go 16 years ago at almost 5-1, there are similarities to Forte, who is the 3-1 favorite but has more than his fair share of doubters. I speculate you could see 4-1 or 9-2, which is worthwhile as a win-bet proposition.</p><p>Here's how I rank the field, with thoughts on each horse. The pace may not be as testy as in years past, considering there doesn't seem to be need-the-lead types who'll set blistering fractions or elite speed runners like Justify. I see this as a more grind-it-out where my top three could outlast the field. </p><p><b>Winner</b></p><p><b>#14, Angel of Empire (8-1):</b> Trainer Brad Cox bring a runner with humble beginnings (maiden debut win at Indiana Grand last August, followed by two allowance races) but which has greatly matured with impressive back-to-back wins in the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby. Flavien Prat was his 5th jockey in six starts for the last victory and rides again. Gets decent enough post, has won on dry and wet surfaces and has been dismissed in his last three races (18-1, 13-1 and 9-2). Don't sleep on this one.</p><p><b>Trifecta Prospects</b></p><p><b>#5, Tapit Trice (5-1): </b>This is the consummate Todd Pletcher horse -- get easy wins under a horse's belt at Aqueduct, Gulfstream (optional claimer on Feb. 4) and Tampa Bay Downs (Grade 3 on March 11) to build confidence ahead of running for the roses. Can run all day, but more of a "B" selection considering recent competition. Really had to grind out Toyota Bluegrass win at Keeneland in April vs. Verifying, who's in the Derby but is <i>way </i>too short at 15-1 for a runner whose ceiling is an optional claiming win. I wouldn't be shocked if Tapit Trice wins, but this $1.3 million buy may go off as the favorite with top rider Luis Saez. Using in trifecta box for sure but not as a top-choice winner.</p><p><b>#22, Mandarin Hero (20-1): </b>Well, got second horse (Lord Miles) to scratch in order to reach the starting gate. I'll sprinkle into trifecta and superfecta wagers as, to me, it takes a lot to ship from Japan to the U.S. in a five-week stretch and be as game as he was finishing second by a nose in the Santa Anita Derby to Practical Move. Might be the best Japanese horse of the bunch, despite Derma Sotogake's gaudy UAE victory.</p><p><b>#17, Derma Sotogake (10-1):</b> Begrudging underneath play on tris and supers, but won't back Japanese horses winning the Derby until I see it. Always a lot of hype that day will come, yet winning preps like the UAE Derby don't mean much for my money. Being a pacesetter could help chances.</p><p><b>Egregious Longshot to Use Underneath</b></p><p><b>#13, Sun Thunder (50-1): </b>A horse with blinkers the first time in a Kentucky Derby seems strange, but not an act of desperation if you watch replays (my primary source of handicapping the Derby) and notice that no horse has been ridden worse than this guy. Closer types don't often suit the Derby and help to explain this one's trouble lines the past three ; but to me there's enough to go on here to at least use this bomber in my trifecta and superfecta plays. Finished 2nd to Angel of Empire in the Risen Star, where he got stuck behind foes before making a nice move in the stretch before getting passed late. The Louisiana Derby a month later saw similar as jockey Brian Hernandez again ran the horse into traffic before finishing fifth. Just sense Hernandez <i>has </i>to get lucky at some point, just not enough to win. </p><p><b>Mudder Prospects to Consider If Track's Sloppy</b></p><p><b>#3, Two Phil's (12-1):</b> Won the Street Sense Stakes stylishly (say that 3x fast) as two-year-old on sloppy going at Churchill Downs late last October. Failed to progress much first two tries in three-year-old campaign but ran Jeff Ruby Steaks field off its toes at Turfway Park on March 25 and should be near the early pace. Might have seen the best of him that day, but the combination of synthetic and wet surface wins makes him a consideration if Churchill's a messy surface on Saturday.</p><p><b>#16, Raise Cain (50-1): </b>Dusted the field in the Gotham on March 4 at Aqueduct on a sealed muddy track against weak competition but clearly loved the wet going. Pass if Churchill is fast.</p><p><b>#4, Confidence Game (20-1):</b> Seems like a one-turn (mile distance or less) horse to me but relished the slop in winning the Rebel. Yet hasn't seen the track since that Feb. 25 victory and he's a cut below.</p><p><b>Taking a Pass</b></p><p><b>#1, Hit Show (30-1): </b>Draws dreaded rail. Stalker and second-tier Brad Cox horse who needed to show something in the Wood Memorial on April 8 and got outgamed by a 59-1 shot to the finish line.</p><p><b>#2, Verifying (15-1):</b> Morning line is way too low. See notation above. Yet to win stakes race.</p><p><b>#6, Kingsbarns (12-1):</b> Later-starting 3-year-old for Todd Pletcher. Is 3-for-3 lifetime including Grade 2 Louisiana Derby win but, again, another you might want to bet this summer rather than now.</p><p><b>#7, Reincarnate (50-1):</b> Needed 4 races to break maiden at Del Mar in late November under trainer Bob Baffert. This guy hasn't done much for new trainer Tim Yakteem. Looks like one-pace filler.</p><p><b>#8, Mage (15-1):</b> Will be wiseguy horse on the TV broadcasts for good second vs. Forte in Florida Derby, but loses top current jockey and I think was ridden hard that race and still couldn't prevail. Sense you're getting underlay (between 9-1 and 12-1), which isn't worth it in 20-horse field.</p><p><b>#11, Disarm (30-1):</b> Nothing stands out. Alarmingly needed six months off after two-year-old win at Saratoga. One-paced runner. Of course I've been beaten a bunch by Winchell Thoroughbreds-owned runners from the sire Gun Runner, but I'll stand against.</p><p><b>#12, Jace's Road (50-1):</b> A very hard-ridden third in the Louisiana Derby to secure this entry. Not a sharp gate-breaker. Can see getting beat to the punch by Practical Move among early pace then quitting.</p><p><b>#18, Rocket Can (30-1):</b> Little to suggest more than a midpack finish. Confidence Game showed more guts when head-to-head in stretch of late-November race, and I thnk the Holy Bull win that followed in early February was a bit of smoke and mirrors, struggling to hold off second- and third-place finishers that went off at 34-1 and 58-1. Looked standing still vs. Forte in Fountain of Youth. Love trainer Bill Mott but not here.</p><p><b>#21, Cyclone Mischief (30-1):</b> Earns spot in starting gate by virtue of Practical Move's scratch due to minor illness. Ceiling is optional claiming win in early January, the one time he got Lasix. Some early lick, but not much else.</p><p><b>#23, King Russell (50-1):</b> Third alternate enters after Continuar's trainer scratched his horse, citing dissatisfaction with fitness. Not using.</p><p><b>Scratches </b>(as of 5/5/23, 10a ET)</p><p><b>#9, Skinner (SCR):</b> <strike>Is 1-for-6 lifetime and grinding out enough points for connections to say they attended the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Lost to Practical Move twice when looked in the eye. Why would Saturday be any different?</strike></p><div><b>#10, Practical Move (SCR):</b> <strike>Not enamored with some of the tin cans he beat in California, but advantage here is his ability to break sharply. Knock is inexperienced Derby rider Ramon Vasquez, yet if he gets out of the starting gate clean and works toward the lead, I've seen enough to suggest Practical Move is a determined sort who won't quit. Held off Japanese shipper and Derby second alternate Mandarin Hero, who I think is sneaky good and a play underneath if drawn into the field. Love the determination from Practical Move, but more of a "B" or "C" type pick in my plays.</strike></div><p><b>#15, Forte (SCR):</b> <strike>Five-race win streak started with the Hopeful last Labor Day weekend at Saratoga and included the Breeders Cup Juvenile championship in November, then he started the 3-year-old campaign by romping in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on March 4. Analysts shouldn't dismiss his next-out win in the Florida Derby, which many criticized as not the most stylish. Yet the horse didn't need to win that race to enter the Derby starting gate and still won with a wide late run and not tons of prompting. Edge vs. Angel of Empire to his inside from the starting gate, but I sense you'll see Prat track jockey Irad Ortiz's flank on Saturday and have a bit more late. Expect 1-2 finish.</strike></p><p><b>#19, Lord Miles (SCR):</b> <strike>Excited for Monmouth Park's top jockey Paco Lopez and hope he doesn't ride reckless. Should be in the mix early from wide post but seems a cut below. </strike></p><p><b>#20, Continuar (SCR):</b> <strike>Japanese import who finished far behind Derma Sotogake in UAE Derby. </strike></p>Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-77376510335899629592022-06-11T08:32:00.005-04:002022-06-11T08:32:48.412-04:00Skippylongstocking?<p>So it's my maiden voyage to the Belmont Stakes in person, as my good friend Peter Rogers is playing in the high-stakes handicapping challenge and invited me as his guest, presumably for great karma. </p><p>This year's edition of the Belmont has eight entrants slated to enter the gate for today's 6:44 p.m. post time.</p><p>I sense all the win bets will go toward #1 We the People (2-1) and #6 Mo Donegal (5-2). The latter's likely to be post-time favorite after sitting out the Preakness following his fifth-place Kentucky Derby finish from the no-chance-to-win rail position. The horse will be fresh and showed a good late turn of foot in winning both the Grade 2 Wood Memorial and Remsen at Aqueduct. NYC bettors will hammer him at the betting windows but the win odds should be propped up a bit but the big pool size. </p><p>We the People is a toss, for me, at least as a win proposition. I think his win in the Grade 3 Peter Pan on May 14 was in much shallower water than here, though the field isn't great. </p><p>I'm taking a flier on #2 Skippylongstocking. He's 20-1 but I don't think should be. I love the jockey change to Manny Franco from Junior Alvarado, who in my opinion did nothing but get this horse in trouble in his last two starts. A clean break and position off the primary and lone "speed" horse in the race -- We the People -- <i>should </i>put him in the mix; and past history has shown it's difficult to come from the clouds to win the Belmont in the fashion that #4 Rich Strike used to win the Derby at 80-1. </p><p>My betting will be largely around #2 Skippylongstocking and the Ortiz brothers Jose and Irad, as Belmont's sweeping turns and 12-furlong distance are unique, so home field advantage helps. The other New York-based riders have lesser mounts and so I'm excluding them from win and exacta wagers.</p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Win Contenders</h3><p><b>#2 Skippylongstocking (20-1): </b>The horse has yet to win a stakes race in 10 lifetime tries but I felt ran credible efforts in the Wood Memorial (3rd) and Preakness (5th) to merit consideration. In both efforts Alvarado carried Skippylongstocking wide onto the track and lost valuable ground. That played into him getting cut off a few times in the stretch of the Preakness by a tiring horse and maybe cost him third. I'd be all over this one were it a rainy day based on pedigree but will take a stab here as I think Franco will attend to the pace earlier and the horse hasn't done anything really wrong in stretching out to longer distances from the one-turn affairs he won. </p><p><b>#6 Mo Donegal (5-2):</b> There'll be no value as a win bet unless the horse stays at 5-2, which I don't see happening. Plus, outside of a bad Derby draw, he <i>did </i>get beaten and outridden by a $160+ horse from the "also eligible" list. That's concerning to me for a prospective favorite. Beyond the rail draw, Mo Donegal had no real trouble in the Derby. Maybe home court advantage helps this time, and I'll use in exotics wagering, but for me he's no shoe-in.</p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Hits the Exacta-Trifecta</h3><p><b>#3 Nest (8-1): </b>The lone filly in the field. I don't think we're looking at a Rachel Alexandra here, but Nest acquitted herself well in the Kentucky Oaks, finishing second to Secret Oath. She got 5 weeks rest for this and I think can get the distance. I just wonder if she's good enough to win.</p><p><b>#5 Creative Minister (6-1):</b> This will be the wise guy horse, going off 4-1/5-1. I picked him in the Preakness and am not bitter in any way about the outcome. I just feel he got a clean look at winning the race and just was a cut below. I'm not sure what changes in 3 weeks since the Preakness, where he got a dream trip and just couldn't close the deal. Will use underneath.</p><p><b>#1 We the People (5-2):</b> I'll use him defensively on my tickets. Everyone's fired up about a 1-turn win in the slop in the Peter Pan, but really who did he beat that day? I sense he'll lope along on the lead for some time and begin to fade in the stretch, maybe good enough to hang on for a minor award. Watch the first half-mile time for clues. If it's 49 seconds-plus, he'll have a shot to lull the rest to sleep. Anything below that I think there's a danger he's out of the money.</p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Pass</h3><p><b>#4 Rich Strike (7-2):</b> I'll tip my cap when he wins. I just don't see it. Dream trip in the Derby and a rider not particularly familiar with the track configuration. And for a dead closer the Belmont can be tough, and his two lifetime wins were both at Churchill Downs, so we'll see if he's a horse for course.</p><p><b>#7 Golden Glider (20-1):</b> Maybe wins a minor award considering the Ghostzapper pedigree. Can probably run all day, but how fast? Looks like a midpack runner and maybe a carousel horse type. </p><p><b>#8 Barber Road (10-1):</b> My ax to grind here is his speed figures look a cut below most and he's 0-5 as a 3-year-old. Plus removing the blinkers on a horse with no speed entering a Grade 1 is curious. Perceived rider upgrade to Joel Rosario but I'm not sure the horse's regular rider did anything wrong to merit losing the mount. To me this is a Grade 3-type horse. </p><p><b>Horse to Watch on Undercard</b></p><p><b>Race 8, Jaipur Stake, #13 Gregorian Chant: </b>Most of his success has been at Santa Anita but I love the outside draw and how he performed in the Eddie D last October from a difficult rail post on the downhill turf at SA. Lost to some tough customers there and I think could pop third start off a layoff.</p><p><br /></p>Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-43611526450571830632022-05-20T22:09:00.002-04:002022-05-22T07:49:39.355-04:00Getting Creative in the Preakness<p>As bullish as I was about Epicenter two weeks ago, I'm equally skeptical since the majority of Kentucky Derby horses in the starting gate for the 2022 Preakness Stakes could bounce after running fast fractions in the first leg of the Triple Crown. It's the reason I'll target two "new shooters."</p><p>We'll have no Triple Crown winner with Rich Strike taking a pass on Leg 2, making Derby runner-up Epicenter an obvious and deserving favorite at 6/5. Two graded stakes wins ties for most in the field with 9/2 Secret Oath, winner of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks for fillies on Derby weekend. I expect them to be well bet and the top two choices.</p><p>For me the betting value lies in #2 Creative Minister (10-1) and #5 Early Voting (7/2). I'll use both extensively in exacta and trifecta wagers, likely with fourth-place Derby finisher Simplification (6-1) getting a share. Full pick 5 sequence plays will be posted on Saturday, so for now here's my assessment of the field. May it help your betting decisions or simple interest in watching the race.</p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">Here's my analysis. </p><p style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">(<i>Notations next to morning-line odds: EE = Early or else; E = Early/pacesetter; E/S = likes to run from the lead but can also stalk/sit behind others and pass; S = stalker that wants to sit midpack, make later run; C = slow starter, inclined to close from the back of the pack; NM = not material</i>).</p><p><u><b>Win Candidates</b></u></p><p><b>2. Creative Minister (10-1; S/C):</b> A birdie at Monmouth Park last weekend informed a close friend and respected horseplayer that Ken McPeek, trainer, was unusually praising of this late-blooming three-year-old with only 3 races under his belt and no stakes tries. Grade 1 is top-class and so Creative Minister's entry and midpack morning line signal confidence in this runner's prospects to win. After watching his three race replays, I tend to agree. Beating non-winners and optional claiming horses is nothing stellar, but Creative Minister improved with each race, including an eye-popping finish in his win on the Derby undercard. Look for this horse to break toward the back and pick off tiring horses midway through. I think he could also sit closer and stalk. Serious win candidate and prominent on my tickets, including a live daily double ticket with Friday's winner of the Black Eyed Susan.</p><p><b>5. Early Voting (7/2; E): </b>A near miss in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in early April was as impressive as any Triple Crown prep race, and the freshening for this is a strong advantage. Early Voting was super game before relenting to Mo Donegal in the Wood in the final stretches, but <i>man</i> was he determined. I sense he's the fastest in the field and better quality than most of the front runners. The concern is there are 2-3 horses that will contest the pace since they have no chance to win otherwise. Will mix with Creative Minister in exacta and trifecta bets and use in multirace exotics. </p><p><b><u>Second Flight (Exacta, Trifecta)</u></b></p><p><b>1. Simplification (6/1; S):</b> Ran a sneaky awesome Kentucky Derby, finishing fourth after navigating early trouble from the gate, then flattening in the late stages. Where I'm most hesitant is that this horse has had a rigorous campaign to start his three-year-old season. The Preakness will already be his sixth start of the year, and I almost would rather have seen Simplication's connections sit this one out and attempt the Belmont Stakes in two weeks. Maybe he enters there too; but to me it's a negative sign when the primary jockey (Jose Ortiz) opts for a perceived better horse (Early Voting). That's not a knock on Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez. But it's a significant shift in the 11th hour; enough to turn me off as a win candidate. </p><p><b>8. Epicenter (6/5; E/SE): </b>Will get a great position stalking Early Voting, but I wonder if he'll be a bit gassed after an all-out effort to win the Derby. Even so, I think he's third or fourth best in a field where some don't have a legitimate chance to win. </p><p><b>4. Secret Oath (9/2; S/C):</b> The gal's awesome, winning the Kentucky Oaks in stylish fashion for 86-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas. So what's not to like. Well, the two-week turnaround and a third-place Arkansas Derby finish versus the boys on April 2 tells me she could use some rest, akin to Simplification and Epicenter. But I get that connections want to say they won a Triple Crown race. I just think three Grade 1 stakes races in six weeks is a ton to ask. Will use in the third and fourth spots on my tickets.</p><p><b><u>Leaving Off My Tickets</u></b></p><p><b>3. Fenwick (50-1; EE):</b> Who knows? Maybe we get another boxcar-odds winner in the Triple Crown. I just don't see it. Expect he'll dash from the gate, have his name announced 2-3 times early then fade.</p><p><b>6. Happy Jack (30-1; S/C): </b>No change from Derby opinion. Belongs back in California against non-winners of two races lifetime before stepping back into graded stakes competition. Blinkers on for a horse with no gate or mid-race speed is no help. Save your money.</p><p><b>7. Armagnac (12-1; EE):</b> This guy did worse than Happy Jack in the Santa Anita Derby and San Felipe Stakes in April and March, then won two weeks ago against five foes in an optional claiming race in California. I just don't see how that equates to this horse trading at a third of the price of Happy Jack. No matter as both are off my tickets.</p><p><b>9. Skippylongstocking (20-1; S/E):</b> Posted a speed figure exceedingly higher than his prior 8 starts in the Wood, finishing third behind Mo Donegal and Early Voting, but it was a non-threatening effort and he's otherwise 0-for-2 and nowhere close in two non-graded stakes. Early to midpack runner lacking stamina.</p><p><b><u>$50-cent Pick 5 Wagers Starting, Races 9-13</u></b></p><p>1, 5-7, 9 with 1 with 1, 2 with 2, 6 with 1, 2, 5 = $30</p><p>1 with 5, 10 with 2 with 6, 7 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8 = $10</p><p>5 with 1, 5, 10 with 1, 8 with 6 with 2, 8 with 5 = $9</p><p><b><u>Preakness Stakes Wagers (Race 13)</u></b></p><p>$10 Win-Place 2 = $20</p><p>$10 Exacta 2-5 = $10</p><p>$1 Trifecta Box 1-2-5 = $6</p><p>20-cent Superfecta 2 with 4, 5, 8 with 1, 4, 5, 8 with ALL = $10.80</p>Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-85029145992187583162022-05-07T11:40:00.002-04:002022-05-07T11:40:54.803-04:002022 Derby Day Selections<p>Top Picks in Race 8-12 Pick 5 Sequence: Race 8: #2 Just In Time (3-1); Race 9: #3 Red Run (15-1); Race 10: #3 Jackie's Warrior (5/2); Race 11: #4 Tribhuvan (5-1); Race 12, Kentucky Derby: #3 Epicenter (3-1)</p><p>Bets:</p><p>R8: $2 daily double 2 with 3, 9</p><p>Pick 5: 2, 6 with 3, 7, 9 with 1, 3 with 3, 4, 8 with 3, 12, 19 = $54</p><p>Pick 5: 2, 4, 5 with 5, 6 with 3 with 4, 6, 10 with 8, 10, 15 = $27</p><p>R9: $5 exacta 3-9; 50-cent trifecta key box 3 with 5-7, 9; $1 exacta 5-7, 9 with 3</p><p>R10: PASS</p><p>R11: $5 daily double 4 with 3; $1 daily double 4 with 8, 10, 12, 15, 19</p><p>Kentucky Derby: 50-cent trifecta 3, 12, 19 with 3, 8, 10, 12, 19 with 1, 3, 8, 10, 12, 15, 19 = $30; $1 exacta box 3, 12, 19</p><p>Good luck!</p>Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-69888652743697858152022-05-03T22:53:00.002-04:002022-05-07T11:10:57.047-04:002022 Kentucky Derby Field Analysis<p>It's been a <b>LONG TIME</b> since I've used this space, so welcome back!</p><p>A handful of friends have texted for thoughts on the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and on top of that I'll participate as usual with roughly a $150 budget, so watching a few hours of replays on the entire field saves me time in the long run. Feel free to spread the word.</p><p>I'll post selections later in the week on both the Derby and the Pick 5 sequence, but am inclined to call Epicenter this year's winner, with Taiba perhaps the only other contender I'll use on the win end. </p><p>Thereafter I see a mix of five horses capable of finishing in the trifecta, and a few others that could complete the superfecta by finishing fourth.</p><p>Here's my analysis. </p><p>(<i>Notations next to morning-line odds: EE = Early or else; E = Early/pacesetter; E/S = likes to run from the lead but can also stalk/sit behind others and pass; S = stalker that wants to sit midpack, make later run; C = slow starter, inclined to close from the back of the pack; NM = not material</i>). </p><p><b><u>Win Candidates</u></b></p><p><b>3. Epicenter (3-1; E/SE):</b> Best in the field. Smooth from the gate, can secure a ground-saving position into the backstretch and be on or near the lead, and seems to have another gear when asked in the stretch. Tactical. Geared down late in decisive Risen Star and Louisiana Derby wins at Fairgrounds and has enough stamina and heart to get the blanket of roses on Saturday. Experience edge vs. Taiba. </p><p><b>12. Taiba (12-1; E/SE):</b> As little stock as I put in fellow Californian Messier's (see below) win prospects, I'd consider going all in at 12-1 on this ex-Bob Baffart horse now in replacement trainer Tim Yakteen's barn. The Derby will be only this horse's third lifetime race; he obliterated maidens wire-to-wire on debut in early March at a sprint distance, then looked professional in winning the 9-furlong Santa Anita Derby, cruising past Messier in the stretch with relative ease. I'll speculate this guy goes off closer to 6-1 or 7-1 as he seems to be a serious contender. Owners paid $1.7 million for this one, and with "Money Mike" (Smith) in the saddle, Taiba's in a position to win. </p><div><b>19. Zosos (20-1; E/S): </b>Elevating to potential win ranks upon reconsideration of huge jump into Arkansas Derby on March 26 from $100,000 optional claiming romp. Making only his fourth lifetime start and has acquitted himself well to this point, including very game second-place finish on the lead in the Arkansas Derby. Kept working hard after Epicenter passed him in the stretch, which to me is a good sign. Seemed to be running straighter lines and like a more experienced horse in the Arkansas Derby. Intriguing. </div><div><b><u><br /></u></b></div><div><b><u>Second Flight (Exacta, Trifecta)</u></b></div><p><b>10. Zandon (3-1; C/S):</b> I think the odds would flip-flop if you swapped post positions with Mo Donegal on Saturday; that's how bad the rail draw is for the Derby. To me, there are so many similarities between Zandon and Mo. Both will have to fire from the back, which is why I think a 3-1 morning line is too short for Zandon. I like trainer Chad Brown a ton and the course he has charted after a nose beat late in the 2-year-old season at Aqueduct in December. The 3-year-old debut in the Risen Star, finishing third, was decent enough; then he exploded late in the Toyota Bluegrass, though I think the track announcer's call about all sorts of traffic was overdone. Zandon ran in company but was never bumped or harmed, then got a clear lane through tiring horses to draw away for the win. I'll use 2nd through 4th on my tickets. Wish he had a little more early speed to contest the pace, but I'm not so sure. </p><p><b>8. Charge It (20-1; E/SE): </b>A <i>really </i>intriguing longshot making only his fourth start and that didn't run as a 2-year-old for trainer Todd Pletcher. My gut tells me to be patient and keep an eye on this son of Tapit in the late summer, perhaps at Saratoga or maybe the Haskell. Looked green in the stretch of his second-place Florida Derby effort but has talent and ran strong once straight. Visually, just feel he's not mature enough yet. I could see him pressing the pace and wilting, but will use defensively underneath. Good learning experience for later in 3-year-old campaign.</p><div><b>1. Mo Donegal (10-1; C/S):</b> Such a cool horse with tremendous late kick. Figure he'd be closer to 5-1 if not for the rail draw. Learned time and time again this is the absolute worst starting position with almost zero shot at winning unless the next coming of Secretariat. Lacks gate speed, so hope he gets a clean, unimpeded break and somehow runs late. Would use bottom of superfecta at most, as even the great Lookin' at Lucky could do no better than 5th place from the rail draw. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>15. White Abarrio (10-1; E/S): </b>Horses to inside in the starting gate isn't particularly fast, so I think jockey Tyler Gaffalione puts this one in the early mix and can gravitate toward the rail. Showed tactical ability in Grade 1 and 3 Derby preps at Gulfstream Park, where he's 4-for-4. The one knock is his one try at Churchill Downs. Now, granted, it was as a 2-year-old, but there was nothing distinguishing. Suspect we'll hear his name a bunch in the Run for the Roses but he'll flatten late at 10 furlongs. Could hit the board. </div><div><br /></div><div><b><u>Superfecta the Ceiling</u></b></div><p><b>6. Messier (8-1; E/SE):</b> Perhaps at my own risk, but I can't take this Californian too seriously as a win contender in this spot, considering the lack of depth in Santa Anita's 3-year-olds this season outside of Taiba. I've got nothing against this ex-Bob Baffert trainee or replacement Tim Yakteen, but there's no way I'd play an Ontario bred to win the Kentucky Derby who beat some Cali tin cans in 4- to 5-horse fields. <i>Could </i>see being coaxed from the gate to keep up but to me distance a concern. May use in the bottom of trifectas and superfectas but nothing beyond. </p><p><b>4. Summer Is Tomorrow (30-1; EE): </b>Interesting early foot; <i>might </i>be the pacesetter and a potential rabbit for Epicenter. I generally toss UAE shippers and horses trying something for the first time (like shipping to the U.S.). Yet Summer handled two turns and almost a mile and a quarter as well as could be expected his first time in the UAE Derby in late March, wilting late in the stretch but holding on for second. If Churchill's a carousel on Saturday, this one might hang on for minor awards. </p><p><b>11. Pioneer of Medina (30-1; S):</b> Get the sense he's either a 7-furlong or marathon-type horse. I <i>hated</i> how his two non-stakes victories looked; seemed to hang on by a thread and run in place. But the more I watched his two stakes efforts, it's clear this guy tries hard and is the consummate plugger. I doubt he's talented enough to win, but he has <i>just </i>enough gate speed to attend to the pace, and there's no quit. Could see him finishing in the top 10; may play defensively in the fourth spot of superfecta.</p><p><b><u>Leaving Off My Tickets</u></b></p><p><b>13. Simplification (20-1; S): </b>The bullish case for this one is a game, trouble-ridden win in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. I'm concerned, however, that the field was soft. This Florida-bred hit the board in the Florida Derby but to me he looked wilted, particularly with the aforementioned Charge It rolling by in the stretch. Just don't see the upside here and am inclined to pass. </p><p><b>16. Cyberknife (20-1; S/E):</b> Get the same vibe as Simplification but will be more forwardly placed. Weaved in and out during the stretch drive of his Grade 1 Arkansas Derby win, and time not particularly electric. Seems like he might have beaten softer to get here. Probable pass. </p><p><b>5. Smile Happy (20-1; S):</b> Not the sort of Derby horse I love. Won his debut at Churchill around two turns, a clear feather in his cap. Since then, however, a so-so second where he wasn't close vs. a geared-down Epicenter in the Risen Star, then had a perfect trip in the Toyota Bluegrass at Keeneland but finished second after Derby co-favorite Zandon blew past after fighting thru traffic. <i>Maybe </i>hits the ticket underneath but I'm inclined to pass. </p><p><b>9. Tiz the Bomb (30-1; C/S):</b> You <i>may </i>remember this one as the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf runner up in November that was named winner for bettors after Modern Games was inexplicably a gate scratch but ended up running and winning the race for purse money only. Looked atrocious on 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes and, to me, doesn't like dirt. Recovered to win two straight on the Turfway Park synthetic track to get to the Derby, but would rather play this one on grass down the road. Passing.</p><p><b>14. Barber Road (30-1; S/C):</b> A plugger who does some late running and continually hits the board but hasn't won a stakes and seemed a bit outclassed in those. Looks like a useful Grade 3 horse who'll run evenly here but probably won't hit the board. Big moment for young jockey too. Pass.</p><p><b>7. Crown Pride (20-1; NM):</b> Rolled past Summer Is Tomorrow to win the UAE Derby, but I summarily toss shippers from Japan in the Derby. Seen too many come with promise/hype and flop; and this is his third country and track since late February, which is a lot to ask of a young 3-year-old. So be it if he wins. Not buying here.</p><p><b>17. Classic Causeway (30-1; E):</b> Been there, done that trying to buy into Tampa Bay Downs stakes winners. It's a second-tier Derby prep track. CC should be in the early mix but can see fading closer to home. Regular rider Irad Ortiz goes to Mo Donegal; signal he knows that horse is way better. </p><p><b>18. Tawny Port (30-1; NM):</b> Peachtree Stable can say it had a 2022 Kentucky Derby runner. Congrats. </p><p><b>2. Happy Jack (30-1; NM): </b>Would be better served staying in California against lesser competition. Lucked into a dream trip debut win at 24-1 when the seas parted near the rail and the horse was ridden hard in the stretch. Then tried stakes 3x and couldn't stay within 10 lengths of the winner. Pass.</p><p><b>2<strike>0. Ethereal Road (30-1; NM): </strike></b><strike>Takes a special horse to win from the widest post. Needed four tries to break maiden, and is 0-3 since and was never a factor. Pass.</strike> SCRATCHED</p><p><b>21. Rich Strike (30-1; NM): </b>Complete reach for a horse that was claimed for $30,000 in September and is 0-5 in a few miinor stakes races. Pass.</p><p><br /></p>Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-70622082215069137192021-05-12T18:51:00.001-04:002021-05-12T18:51:23.975-04:00Hoping the Preakness Brings Honor to Racing for Once<p>First a short rant.<br /><br />It's hard to get excited anymore about horse racing and is impossible to defend a dying industry that's so disjointed, mismanaged and in desperate need of a national governing/oversight body and legitimacy. <br /><br />It's an embarassment, magnified by trainer Bob Baffert's reported <a href="https://apnews.com/article/ky-state-wire-bob-baffert-sports-360b419b7f6fde781c78899976e2be7c#:~:text=The%20list%20of%20failed%20tests,spanning%20more%20than%20four%20decades." target="_blank">30th medication violation</a> -- the latest surrounding Kentucky Derby winner Medicina, er, Medina Spirit. <br /><br />I'm not an industry insider, nor gullible enough to buy Bob's "the world's after me" narrative. The excuses, damage control and broader indifference to cheating and deceit are an insult to mine and other racing enthusiasts' collective intelligence and denigrate the integrity of this gambling venue. <br /></p><p>I won't call it a sport. It's gambling and exists <i>solely </i>because of bettors who like the action and merely want a fair shake -- or the appearance of one -- when putting their cash to work. <br /><br />For me it's minor disposable income and hobby. Fun money. For others it's more serious. So to come up with excuse after excuse after excuse at increasingly more-regular rates is a disgrace. <br /><br />Bob Baffert should be ashamed.<br /><br />Churchill Downs should be ashamed. </p><p>Pimlico Race Course, owned by the same group with a history of chemist enablers in California, should be ashamed.<br /></p><p>The <a href="https://www.ntra.com/" target="_blank">NTRA</a> should be ashamed, with its homepage completely devoid of anything matching its listed tenets. Advocacy, integrity and leadership. Yeah, OK.</p><p>Racing should be <i>shamed</i> in front of a national audience this Saturday in Baltimore, but it won't. </p><p>So enjoy the hours of coverage, most of which I'm sure NBC will gloss over and give no thorough examination or criticism as an enabler while we get Steve Kornacki and his khakis giving some fakakta "analysis" because we so miss all of the nightly vitriol from the 2020 election coverage and can't live without all his fabulous charts. </p><p>In the meantime, here's my take on the field for the 2021 Preakness Stakes. <br /></p><p>I'm unsure if and how I'm going to participate wagering-wise, but begrudgingly think the race runs through the "other" Baffert horse, 2-1 favorite Concert Tour, and whether others from a mostly B and C team field of 10 can pick up the pieces late after the Bafferts run ablaze and/or conspire to finish 1-2 before the Triple Crown circus heads north to Belmont Park in three weeks.</p><h3 style="text-align: left;">2021 Preakness Horses (Order of Preference)</h3><p>Consistent with the Derby, I've graded horses A (potential winner), B (can win, needs some breaks), C (needs more than some breaks to win; can hit the top 3-4) and PASS. </p><p><b>#8, Unbridled Honor (15-1):</b> Putting jockey Luis Saez in the saddle is a significant upgrade in a dirt race from the turf-savvier Julien Leparoux, who gave this horse "curious" rides in the Tampa Derby in March and Lexington Stakes in April. The horse's speed figures are a cut below the two favorites, but he ran well enough to win the Lexington, had Leparoux not been a) asleep the first 48-49 seconds and b) followed eventual race winner King Fury along the rail instead of tipping 4-5 paths in the stretch. To me it was a poor decision that cost Unbridled Honor the 2.75 margin of defeat. I also believe trainer Todd Pletcher is adept at finding winning spots for his lesser stakes horses. This is such a case. Grade: A </p><p><b>#10, Concert Tour (2-1):</b> The rider switch to Mike Smith from Joel Rosario is curious, and a negative, as strange as it sounds. "Big Money Mike" is aboard Concert Tour for the first time, and all he has to do is gun to the lead from the widest stall and hope the speed carries. I think Concert Tour is <i>way </i>more alert from the gate then Medicina Spirit, and showed in the April 10 Arkansas Derby that he's not cool sitting off another runner and wants to head the pack. It's possible he does it on Saturday. Grade: A</p><p><b>#4, Crowded Trade (10-1): </b>People will draw comparisons to 2017 champ Cloud Computing, who won at double-digit odds for the same connections and took a similar route to Pimlico. It's another horse with a beneficial jockey switch (to Javier Castellano from Eric Cancel). Trade doesn't appear to have much giddyup from the starting gate, however, and with sharp breakers to either side, I wonder if Castellano will be equally aggressive and try to sit just off the front-runners or settle midpack, as the horse did in both the Gotham Stakes and Wood Memorial. Castellano's a two-time Preakness winner, including on Cloud Computing. I'd be worried about this one going off as the third choice and think bettors will have to settle for 6-1/7-1, which still isn't bad but short for my liking. Grade: A-</p><p><b>#5, Midnight Bourbon (5-1): </b>Smith rode this horse to a trouble-free sixth in the Derby, but I believe he ran worse than another Preakness entrant and 7th-place finisher Keepmeinmind. Bourbon looks like a potential speed factor on paper, and very well may be put early into the race by jockey Irad Ortiz, another notable upgrade. World-class rider and trainer, but to me Bourbon's not particularly fast nor does anything that stands out as special. He'll be near the front and could get a share, but I just don't think he's a classic-distance winning horse. Grade: B</p><p><b>#3, Medicina Spirit (9-5):</b> If betting against, it's because he'll be uncomfortable chasing Concert Tour, assuming the latter gets the quicker jump. If he <i>does </i>beat Concert Tour to the first turn, it'll be interesting to see if the rash cream, pee-infused oats and/or Baffert's elixir du jour kicks in for the second time in 14 days. I believe he'll instruct both riders to seize the front, slow the pace in the backstretch with the slower starter carring the field wide to prevent others from passing, then see which one hangs on late for the victory and a spot in the Belmont as the other settles for second and heads back to California. Grade: C</p><p><b>#2, Keepmeinmind (15-1):</b> Good Derby effort and one I wanted to translate into a Preakness win, but he's got zero gate speed and it'd be a lot to ask him to close with the same passion as in the Derby to almost finish 6th after being 20 lengths behind. Keepmeinmind competes. I'll give him that. He disproved my Derby thesis just a bit that he didn't belong. But a nonthreatening effort there doesn't turn this one into a contender on Saturday, and after watching several of his replays, <i>Belatedly</i>inmind might be a more appropriate name. Grade: C</p><p><b>#9, Risk Taking (15-1): </b>The lesser Chad Brown trainee to Crowded Trade, IMHO. A no excuses 7th-place finisher in the April 3 Wood Memorial doesn't inspire here, nor do pedestrian race times. Probably sits midpack as he's another with scant early foot. I'm eager to see him on turf, though, considering the sire (Medaglia d'Oro: El Prado). Irad's brother Jose gets the mount, so at least he likely won't be ridden out of contention. Grade: C/C-</p><p><b>#1, Ram (30-1):</b> The Preakness as a first stakes race is ballsy, but that's veteran trainer D. Wayne Lucas for you. It's hard to put much stock in coming out of an allowance race (several notches below stakes grade), but someone thought enough to pay $375,000 for the horse, and with nothing to lose and the rail draw, an early bid is possible before a lack of class catches up with him. Grade: Pass</p><p><b>#6, Rombauer (12-1): </b>The three or four of you that read this blog can ridicule me after he wins, but the odds are <i>way </i>too short for my taste. Rombauer finished third behind two good runners (Derby contenders Essentially Quality and Highly Motivated) in the Bluegrass on April 3, but the track notes citing he was "bumped" and "in tight" seemed drastic after replays. Rombauer sat third and rode the rail the entire circuit, mostly unbothered and leaking ground toward the finish line. His one stakes win was at California's lesser track, ungraded and on a synthetic surface. Grade: Pass</p><p><b>#7, France Go de Ina (20-1): </b>Gets a great rider in Joel Rosario, but little to get excited about in this horse's 6th-place finish in the UAE Derby in late March. Nothing stood out there. We've been down this road before with the feel-good foreign shipper (connections are from Japan). If nothing else, they'll bring more integrity and class to the race than some of their key U.S. counterparts combined. Grade: Pass (but will be rooting)</p>Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-53113531570507104802021-04-30T19:35:00.006-04:002021-05-01T10:03:53.175-04:00Will Rock Your World With Kentucky Derby Pick<p>Yes, I'm still breathing.</p><p>The feather duster came in handy for yours truly, with my maiden NJ Horseplayer blog post of 2021!</p><p>In keeping with tradition, and despite still feeling the scars of the Maximum Security disqualification two renditions ago that cost me a handsome Pick 5 payout and cashing other wagers, here's my 2021 Kentucky Derby analysis. <br /><br />Traditionally I keep to a $100-$150 bankroll and key most of my wagers around two horses, including <b>my selection to win -- #15, Rock Your World (5-1)</b>. It was a coin flip between him and #14, Essential Quality, the probable favorite at a 2-1 morning line, which is saying something in a 20-horse field. <br /><br />As I see it, Rock Your World may <i>both </i>be the fastest horse in the field <i>and </i>the most versatile, and with the best jockey in the race at rationing speed. Being on or near the lead is typically critical in the Derby, so as long as Joel Rosario breaks cleanly and can track the "cheap speed" horses -- particularly #8, Medina Spirit (15-1), I believe Rock Your World has the stamina to outlast Essential Quality. <br /><br />Those two horses are my only "win" options. I've otherwise broken the field down into horses that can "hit the board" -- run second, third or fourth. I'll probably allocate 20-30% of my bankroll to a straight exacta (e.g., $20 exacta 15-14, $10 exacta 14-15) and some keys with the "underneath" horses I like.<br /><br />I'll put another 30-40% toward trifectas, which tend to pay handsomely if you catch a price.<br /><br />One bomber I believe can finish as high as second is #12, Helium (50-1). It's a horse I think also has some early kick and maybe had one of the "worst trip" wins in the field of 20. <br /><br />Enough babbling. A little on each of the runners, grading them "A" (can win), "B" (could win if everything goes right), "C" (ceiling of third or fourth) and "PASS" (aka No Shirt, No Shoes, No Dice). In order of preference...<span style="background-color: #f4cccc;">(<i>UPDATED SATURDAY MORNING FOR KING FURY SCRATCH</i>)</span><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">The Contenders</h3><div><br /></div><b>#15, Rock Your World (5-1):</b> Potential late bloomer who didn't make his debut until Jan. 1, no less in a turf sprint at Santa Anita. Contrary to the trackman's notes in the past performances, he <i>wasn't </i>"ridden out" late but rather eased in the last few hundred yards having dominated the field of 12. Trainer John Sadler then tried him at a mile on grass in a $100,000 stake, which he easily won. Next was the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on April 3, trying dirt for the first time and stretch out to a mile and an eighth. His 4.5-length win made clear the horse <i>loves </i>to run; wasn't ridden at all in crushing the aforementioned Medina Spirit. In a year where some top horses had to drop off the Derby trail due to injury, 5-1 is solid value on a horse with tons of upside and shipping from California, a state that has produced recent Derby winners. Grade: A<p></p><p><b>#14, Essential Quality (2-1): </b>This guy's 5-for-5 including two Grade 1 wins as a two-year-old. He's equally if not more versatile tactically (at least proven to be), having won from just off the front-runners and as far back as 8-9 lengths. There's nothing to dislike, other than (at least to me), Rock Your World looks <i>a little </i>faster from the gate based on race replay video. They call it gambling for a reason, and I anticipate a ding-dong battle in the stretch. Grade: A</p><p><b>#12, Helium (50-1):</b> Hear me out. A lot of horseplayers will knock Tampa Bay Downs, the track where Helium scored at 15-1 to get into the entry gate on Saturday. It's the second-fiddle Florida facility to Gulfstream Park, but I scored with Helium in the Grade 2 Tampa Derby on March 6 and was subjected to an awful five-wide trip throughout before a bold move into the stretch, then rallying back to hold off a late comer to score a narrow victory. My two beefs are the jockey switch (connections ditched the winning rider Jose Ferrer in favor of Julien Leparoux) and lack of prep in between. Yet the two-month layoff shouldn't affect this horse's "form cycle," as he scored in the Tampa Derby after four-plus months of rest. I think Leparoux is one of the more patient jockeys in the race. Just hoping he doesn't get swallowed up in the vanguard into the first turn. I'll feel more confident about Helium hitting the board if he's sitting no worse than 10th into the backstretch. Grade: B</p><p><b>#1, Known Agenda (6-1):</b> I've been beaten many times using horses from the dreaded rail draw, but I'm not sold there's a ton of speed inside of post 8 and think the best jockey in America (Irad Ortiz) will get this guy safely to a forward position and save ground along the rail. The latter's a tough proposition with <i>so much </i>outer flow from the other 19 post positions. The 6-1 morning line shows the respect this horse deserves, having won two straight impressively for top trainer Todd Pletcher since putting on the blinkers. Maybe that improves the horse's comfort with what he'll face in the cattle charge to the first turn. Grade: B</p><p><b>#3, Brooklyn Strong (50-1):</b> This guy beat Known Agenda two back in the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct in the slop on December 5. Granted, one could argue he got lucky or loved the off going, but his April 3 performance in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial after a four-month layoff was <i>infinitely </i>better than the racing program suggests. Frankly, jockey Manny Franco rose Brooklyn Strong <i>horribly </i>in that race, checking several times along the rail with a horse who was semi-keen but could never find an opening. Once he found a small seam in the stretch, Brooklyn Strong started to rally before again getting cut off and shifting several paths out into the track. <i>Still </i>almost rallied for second in a race won by a 73-1 shot. A cleaner trip that day and he'd have had a shot. Grade: C+<br /></p><p><b>#19, Soup and Sandwich (30-1):</b> I had this one on my "watch list" before his impressive second-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, a race where he carried the field from the front and semi-wide before relenting to Known Agenda in the stretch. I'm not sure he'll get the distance as sire Into Mischief was more of a sprint-type one-turn horse. But I'm fairly confident the second of trainer Mark Casse's runners (the first being Helium; see above) will be one of the pace-setters; maybe the track bias carries him to a third- or fourth-place finish as the others languish. Grace: C</p><p><b>#9, Hot Rod Charlie (8-1):</b> This is another one I think may be distance-constrained and needs the best of trips. HRC's win in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby was on the lead, but it looked to me he inherited it and no one else wanted the front; sorta lulled his foes to sleep. The race I <i>didn't </i>like on replay was his one before that, in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita in January, where he was one of the top choices but outgutted for second place by an 11-1 shot and between foes. Grade: C</p><p><b>#17, Highly Motivated (10-1):</b> Same deal as S&S and HRC. Think he's ultimately going to be great as a miler. Gave in to Essential Quality in the Grade 2 Bluegrass Stakes last month and am concerned he was a bit used up there. I can see jockey Javier Castellano having to use the horse hard to gain a forward position into the first turn -- a tough task from post 17. Grade: C</p><h3 style="text-align: left;">No Shirt, No Shoes, No Dice<br /></h3><div>In number order:</div><p><b>#2, Like the King (50-1):</b> Know the expression about having nothing good to say? Yeah...</p><p><b>#4, Keepmeinmind (50-1): </b>Perfect example of why a 20-horse field is completely silly. Doesn't have a credit 3-year-old race to fit here.</p><p><b>#5, Sainthood (50-1):</b> Cheap speed. <i>Maybe </i>you'll hear his name early. Could be the primary impediment to Known Agenda getting a safe position into the first turn along the rail.</p><p><b>#6, O Besos (20-1): </b>Ran late for minor awards in two Derby preps at Churchill-owned Fairgrounds in New Orleans. Slow gate-breaker who may be last into the first turn. Can't see him factoring.</p><p><b>#7, Mandaloun (15-1):</b> I don't think distance is an issue for this guy, and will keep my eye if he's entered in the Belmont Stakes in June, as in the Risen Star Stakes in February he won impressively at 9 furlongs and I thought was wrapped up late by his jockey. But the start wasn't particularly fast, and so I view him as a "grinder" more than a tactical horse with a quick burst of foot. Just not my cup of tea in a chaotic race where he may get crunched early. Respect, but adding to watch list for future races.</p><p><b>#8, Medina Spirit (15-1):</b> Bob Baffert B-teamer after his top horse Life Is Good scratched. To me this guy's going to be forwardly placed, but not Derby caliber and one that can't rate. A need-the-lead type who'll probably wilt a mile and back up in the stretch.</p><p><b>#10, Midnight Bourbon (20-1):</b> Had the lead in the aforementioned race won by Mandaloun and wonder if he's cut out for the dirt. Not a big fan in this spot despite world-class trainer and rider. </p><p><b>#11, Dynamic One (20-1):</b> Really hated how he finished in the Wood, losing second to Bourbonic after putting away his other foes. Another Pletcher trainee, so he deserves respect. Just not sure he's meant for the distance.</p><p><b>#13, Hidden Stash (50-1):</b> <i>See write-up on Like the King</i></p><p><b>#18, Super Stock (30-1):</b> Somehow won the Arkansas Derby on April 10 after two speed horses tired each other out, but that was a dream scenario in a short field of six where the other three contenders probably didn't have a winning chance. Writing that off as soft field. Tries, but not your winner.</p><p><b>#20, Bourbonic (30-1):</b> If nothing else, I'm rooting for Kendrick Carmouche, a local jockey and class act who's living the dream here. It's <i>really </i>hard winning from post 20, but as he showed in the Wood, Bourbonic's a patient horse who'll probably duck pretty quickly to the rail, sit back and maybe hope tempo's extremely fast and conducive to closers. Another Pletcher trainee, so respect is deserved, but I'm passing for the Derby.</p><h3 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: red;">Out of the Race</span></h3><p><b>#16, King Fury (<strike>20-1</strike>):<span style="color: red;"> SCRATCHED; spiked a fever</span></b>: <i><strike>A $950,000 purchase with three lifetime wins in six tries, including two at Churchill Downs. Connections haven't backed down from putting him in tough fields, including the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity and Breeders Cup Classic in a month's span last autumn, with an overnight stakes win sandwiched between. His 3-year-old debut on April 10 in the Grade 3 Lexington was a win, but a part-the-seas type of clean trip a jockey can only dream about. He'll have to work a lot harder today, but I think can run late for a minor award. Grade: C-</strike></i>/<span style="color: red;"><b>SCRATCHED</b></span><br /><br /></p>Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-43805851905213720462020-12-12T11:12:00.001-05:002020-12-12T11:12:17.976-05:00No Guts, No "Glory" in Monmouth Tourney? It Depends...<p>Wagering "only" $100 instead of $200 on True Timber to win the Cigar Mile cost me a Top 2 finish and probably a $4,000+ cash profit and NHC qualification at Monmouth Park's Dec. 5 handicapping contest. <br /><br />Am I broken up? Absolutely not. It was still an awesome outcome and a great -- and rare -- pandemic-era day out of the house with a good friend, as Monmouth provide a safe venue and an <i>egregiously </i>distanced event in a surreal year.<br /><br />Finishing 5th and turning a $300 entry into $1,400 was surely a solid outcome, but I've grappled a bit with how to frame missing an opportunity for 3x that profit and an NHC berth. </p><p>A typical horseplayer's lament, I suppose. <br /><br />If nothing else, I've come to the stark realization that, to make a big splash in these tournaments, my live-bankroll mindset needs to deviate more from the risk tolerance in my investment and retirement accounts, which is more moderate and research-based than overaggressive.</p><p>It's an honest personality self-assessment for why I've only hit the board every so often in Monmouth's unique live-bankroll slate, and why I probably am better suited to the notional $2 win-place format of online events.</p><p>Granted, many buy 2 entries to my 1, but the winners of the Monmouth tournaments don't hesitate to go guns ablaze for the win, and if they lose so be it. They go home and try again next time. </p><p>I've seen it first hand through friends Peter Rogers, <a href="https://twitter.com/TM_Flanagan" target="_blank">Terry Flanagan</a>, Jennifer Prince, Damian Sasso and <a href="https://twitter.com/GryboskiJr" target="_blank">Frank Grybowski</a>, to name a few. Each at times has found success not so much my nailing 50% of their wagers, but knowing when to go "all in" on a particular horse, and not always on the contest finale.<br /><br />I had that opportunity with 7-1 True Timber last weekend and didn't take it. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BjGY74ihjRw" width="320" youtube-src-id="BjGY74ihjRw"></iframe></div><p>I had built a $257 bankroll halfway through the tournament, grinding out a few show wagers and a wire-to-wire 4-1 winner in <a href="https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=TAM&raceDate=12/05/20&cy=USA&rn=4" target="_blank">race 4 at Tampa Bay Downs</a> before burning $50 win-place ($100) on Dovey Lovey in Race 7 at Aqueduct, my first of my three strong opinions on the card. That and another semi-big wager and up-the-track finish from my second bullish opinion of the day (Race 8) dented my confidence and bankroll to $57.<br /><br />As so many live-bankroll players are prone to do, I blew $20 chasing an ill-advised horse who flopped in race 7 at Tampa, leaving me with $37.<br /><br />On my heels, I regrouped, sitting out the next few races and contemplated how to parlay my final 37 bucks into something productive. </p><p>Race 8 at Tampa provided such an opportunity, with a notable jockey change to Antonio Gallardo on <a href="https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=TAM&raceDate=12/05/20&cy=USA&rn=8" target="_blank">Night Things</a>, a 2-year-old from the "also eligible" list making his second start vs. protected maidens. The horse won at almost 10-1, turning my $20 win-$17 place wager into $276.<br /><br />Back in business!</p><p>Before the Cigar Mile, I liked another horse -- at Tampa again -- who cost me $20, finishing second at 7-2 instead of winning as I'd bet, putting me at $256, enough for an asertive bet on my final "strong opinion."</p><p>In hindsight, I'm confident my aforementioned friends might have gone all in on such a bullish call, but the conservative side of me thought "<i>well, my last two top bets stunk, so what'll be different here?</i>" <br /><br />I'm not the only horseplayer with such self-doubt, but it cost me. </p><p>I should have let the risk-taker in my mental struggle win out and wagered $200 to win on <a href="https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=AQU&raceDate=12/05/2020&cy=USA&rn=10" target="_blank">True Timber</a> as contemplated. </p><p>Instead, "moderate-risk" Bill bet $100 and cashed, but another $830 of winnings would have run my bankroll to $1,816 and been game, set and match. </p><p>Fast forward to the contest finale -- Race 11 from Gulfstream Park -- I sat in third, $50 behind second and about $120 out of first. With no strong conviction in that 12-horse race, I set a simple goal to leave the track with at least $900 in my pocket, and play a logical horse and hopefully run my bankroll above $1,100 and toward where the tournament leader sat pre-race. </p><p>It worked out, as 3-1 <a href="https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=GP&raceDate=12/05/2020&cy=USA&rn=11" target="_blank">Frost Or Frippery</a> survived a horrendous trip and a photo finish for the win; my $50 win-$20 place bet vaulted me to a $1,153 final tally, but only <a href="https://www.monmouthpark.com/news-notes/filoso-lam-headed-back-to-vegas-for-2021-nhc-after-contest-1-2/" target="_blank">good enough for 5th place</a>, surpassed by two other contestants. </p><p>A <i>true</i> "gambler" might have turned such strong handicapping into a monster day. Yet that's not where I am at this point, nor will I ever be. I'm not a gambler. </p><p>I'm a contest-focused player, and after several bad performances in past Monmouth tournaments, there's an element of satisfaction turning a good profit on strong handicapping and enjoying the action. <br /><br />On top of that, I've mostly avoided trying to qualify for the <a href="https://www.ntra.com/nhc/" target="_blank">2020 NHC</a>. I lost interest once the NTRA, intent on an in-person Las Vegas event, shifted the national championship to late August 2021.<br /><br />That's about the time I <i>hope -- </i>fingers crossed for a widely available Covid-19 vaccine and a return to normal life -- to be moving my two kids into college. </p><p>I realize now that I can live more with missing out on NHC qualification than letting a major cash score slip thru my fingers. It was there for the taking.<br /><br /><i>Not enough</i> guts, <i>not enough</i> glory.</p><p>Live and learn.</p>Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-5339891992965995262020-08-08T14:47:00.001-04:002020-08-08T14:47:36.171-04:00Thoughts on Travers Day Pick 5Five days into a power outage, you find creative ways to stay entertained. I'm fortunate (or not, depending on how I do) to have downloaded Saturday's mandatory payout Pick 5 past performances at Saratoga, and have thoughts on playing what looks like a chalky sequence but see some plausible outsiders to spice things up. Hopefully this comes across eloquently, writing by phone.<div><br></div><div>I'm only putting $50 into four tickets, singling 2-3 where I perceive a lock, and mostly buying the middle race -- turf marathon -- with just 6 runners. Those, to me, are equivalent to claiming races but with horses of fancier pedigree. </div><div><br></div><div>Here's my take on each race.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Race 7, Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes:</b> #6 <i>Pink</i> <i>Sands</i> (10-1). A trainer-intent angle. Part of me thinks Shug McGaughey used the June 13 Ogden Phipps as a prep for today's at the horse's preferred distance. I think she's a middle distance sprinter and notice Irad Ortiz taking the mount. She'll be off the heels of my second choice, #1 <i>Serengeti</i> <i>Empress</i> (5-2), who's a speed ball but may wilt late. Using 1 and 6 prominently on 3 of 4 tickets, and the other 5 runners on one "saver" ticket.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Race 8, Grade 3 Troy Stakes:</b> I relish 5.5 furlong turf sprints but the field looks like dressed up claimers. I'll take favorite <i>Imprimis</i> (8-5), even off a 9-month rest. Just the classiest IMHO. Training progression seems positive and saving ground along the rail should help. I just think the others are blazing 5 furlong types and Imprimis picks up the pieces as the early pace tires. Using #7 <i>Chewing Gum </i>(9-2), #5 <i>Pure Sensation </i>and #3 <i>Lonhtwist </i>(20-1) as outsiders.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Race 9, Grade 3 Waya Stakes: </b>I'm buying the race. Only 6 runners, and these turf marathons are so unpredictable. If ready, #1 <i>Mrs. Sippy (6-5) </i>is best, but another off since November's Breeders Cup isn't an angle I love. Using ALL on one ticket and think #2 <i>Beau Belle </i>(10-1, only 2 lifetime wins, both at Saratoga), #4 <i>My Sister Nat </i>(2-1) and #7 <i>Fools Gold </i>(5-1) have a shot.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Race 10, Grade 1 Test Stakes: </b>Almost impossible to look past 3-5 favorite <i>Gamine</i>. Crushed in the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont last month and I'm not super high on second-choice #6 <i>Venetian Harbor </i>(8-5) to beat her. Just doesn't seem as fast but will use on one of my tickets. Used #1 <i>Up in Smoke </i>(12-1) on another ticket in case the top two melt down, but I don't see it.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Race 11, Grade 1 Travers Stakes: </b>#3 <i>Uncle Chuck </i>is my top choice, and I think the 5-2 morning line is generous and worth a stand against vs. sentimental favorite and Saratoga local #6 <i>Tiz the Law</i>. Even-money is too short on the Belmont Stakes champion, and though I'm sure the local connections would LOVE to sweep the Travers and Belmont, they're not going to risk it to miss out on a Triple Crown try next month for <i>Tiz</i>. It should be a fantastic head-to-head race, but I give the nod to Chuck. Don't dismiss his last win at the little-known Los Alamitos either. The configurations aren't much different there than here (long straightaways). Chuck is versatile and I think benefits from an otherwise pretty soft field. I'm using #7<i> Caracaro </i>(10-1) on a saver ticket, impressed with his bad-trip runner up in the Grade 3 Peter Pan last month.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Probable Pick 5 Tickets (50-cent base)</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div>1,6 with 1 with ALL with 1,5 with 3 ($12)</div><div><br></div><div>1,6 with 3,7 with 1,2 with 5,6 with 3,6 ($16)</div><div><br></div><div>1,6 with 1,5 with 1,2,7 with 5 with 7 ($12)</div><div><br></div><div>2,3,4,5,7 with 1 with 1,4 with 5 with 3,6 ($10)</div><div><br></div><div>Mighr play a Pink Sands-Serengeti Empress exacta in Race 7 and possible win on PS if she holds around 10-1. I'm otherwise chilly on win wagers today.</div>Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-125425849626064752020-07-17T22:26:00.003-04:002020-07-17T22:26:57.029-04:00Haskell Stakes Selection: Dr PostSeven horses will compete Saturday in Oceanport for the $600,000 winner's share in the most expensive allowance race ever carded, a.k.a. the 2020 Haskell (nee Invitational) Stakes.<br /><br />Sarcasm about the 7-horse field competing in a $1 million Grade 1 race aside, you can't knock Monmouth Park <i>at all</i> for much else from a wagering proposition, having put together an <i>outstanding </i>14-race card in the face of Covid-19 restrictions, including an apparent quarantine of jockey Mike Smith, coming from California to ride 4-5 favorite Authentic for trainer Bob Baffert.<br /><br />Management's been criticized by many on social media for selling a select number of $100-$150 tickets for parking, admission and a baseball cap, but candidly, the Haskell field isn't worth seeing in person, and that money can be better spent watching the action on TV and betting online. Plus as a capitalist I can see why Monmouth would use its capacity allowance (about 2,000) to offset its expenses and a completely rich purse.<br /><br />As usual, I'll provide unsolicited thoughts on each Haskell horse -- in order of preference -- and share some other wagering ideas for the late Pick 5 sequence (Races 10-14).<br />
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<h3>
Paging Dr Post! </h3>
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<b>#1, Dr Post (5-2):</b> <b>Top selection</b> and probably one of two horses that can win. This isn't a pound-the-table win bet for me, unless he overlays to 7-2, but Dr Post is a completely logical second fiddle to Authentic after a runner-up to Tiz the Law in the Belmont on June 20. If Dr Post loses, it won't be for a lack of trying. Even if you're not betting the Haskell, watch how this guy runs. In each of his past three starts, he broke from the gate decently but looked lazy at times, prompting his jockey to remind him with the whip about two-thirds of the way through the race. And each time he responded slowly but surely, with a going-away victory in a $75,000 stake at Gulfstream Park in late April and stretching out another sixteenth of a mile and running faster in the Belmont. Trainer Todd Pletcher is as exciting to listen to as watching paint dry, but is simply one of the best at placing his horses in winnable spots. In the traditional Derby chase, Dr Post wouldn't have been ready for top competition. Nor rushed. But from what I've seen so far, Dr Post has gradually matured and I think gets a perfect ground-saving trip along the rail and catches Authentic from off the pace. Pass as a win bet at 5-2 or 2-1 odds, but I'll suggest for the top spot of trifecta and superfecta tickets, as well as the Pick 5.<br />
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<b>#2, Authentic (4-5): </b>Bob Baffert knows a few things about Max's Hot Dogs...and, oh, winning the Haskell. He's dominated this race, winning a record eight times, and Authentic is in the mold of many other Baffert runners. Speed. Speed. More Speed. There's no mystery about Authentic's tactic. He'll jump to the front and look to make his six foes eat dust. I have a few concerns, however, beyond Baffert's injury-plagued Derby hopefuls and medications violations at Oaklawn Park. After gaudy wins in short-sized fields in the Grade 3 Sham and Grade 2 San Felipe -- before Covid-19 ended <i>a lot</i> of things, including the traditional Triple Crown trail via the Kentucky Derby (now Sept. 5) -- Authentic finished a fading second to Honor A.P. in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on June 6. He started oddly, almost a step slow, and never got to dictate terms. Authentic lost by almost three lengths, and though the speed figure he earned is best of the Haskell bunch, visually there was something amiss. I'm also mildly concerned about shipping the horse east for his first race outside of California. Granted, Saturday's field is <i>bad</i>, but my call is that a few of the egregious long-shots will gun for the lead with Authentic, so any early stumble or need to carve out ridiculous fractions puts him at a disadvantage and benefits Dr Post. I'll use Authentic on one "defensive" trifecta ticket, but discourage win-place-show bets for lack of value. Watch to see if "bridge-jumpers" overload the show pool here, and whether you can capitalize on another horse you like for a sizable show wager.<br />
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<b>#3, Jesus' Team (15-1):</b> Pronounced "Hey Zeus's" Team. I mean, who <i>wouldn't</i> want to align with Jesus, right?! But from a racing sense, he's my third choice. Now, I think he's got <i>maybe</i> a 0.05% chance of winning, but for my money is absolutely worth using "underneath" in wagers. I wanted to give NY Traffic the nod as third-best, but sorta feel like that guy's hit his ceiling and is more of a miler, so the extra one-eighth of a mile is a detriment to him. Jesus' Team, on the other hand, has matured since shifting to trainer Jose D'Angelo's barn. Certainly not a household-name conditioner, but in Jesus' past two starts -- a win and a second -- he's shown both quickness from the starting gate and, vs. half-decent $100,000 optional claiming company on June 10, the ability to settle and stalk the front-runners. Candidly I think he's got one of my least preferred riders, but I believe this horse is game enough to keep running late, probably maxing out in second place if something goes amiss with Authentic, and third or fourth otherwise, but probably way behind the winner.<br />
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<b>#7, NY Traffic (7-2):</b> Because the next three horses I'm about to discuss are God awful, I think NY Traffic may be 2-1 or 5-2 when all's said and done, which to me is too short for a win bet for a hanger. My <i>hope </i>as a Dr Post backer is that NY Traffic goes off as second choice after two seconds and a third in three Grade 2-3 races and bettors go gaga over local jockey Paco Lopez, a speed connoisseur getting his second-straight turn with a speed horse. What you want to see if backing NY Traffic is a duel with Authentic where the latter throws in the towel, and the others sorta run in place. As a Dr Post backer that's <i>also </i>what I want to see, save for the part about NY Traffic making it to the finish line first. I just think Dr Post has more will than NY Traffic, who to me looks more like a 7-furlong to 1-mile horse. In each of his past three races -- granted, vs. stout competition -- he languished late. Strictly an underneath horse on my tickets, save for one small-money, defensive Pick 5 "backup" ticket. Will be bet like a win contender, but I don't think is good enough.<br />
<br /><b>#6, Lebda (20-1): <i><span style="color: #990000;">The first of three runners I believe will be more than 30-1 once the starting gate opens. </span></i></b>One game try as a two-year old, finishing third in the Grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs last September, and two minor stakes wins at winter track Laurel Park, but not fast enough. May be in the mix for 50-60% of the race before fading, much as he was gassed in three attempts vs. Grade 3 company (two levels below Saturday's classification). Pass.<br />
<br />
<b>#4, Ancient Warrior (20-1): </b>A three-quarter mile sprinter, not a classic-distance horse. Summoning the spirit of every ancient warrior <i>ever </i>is needed for this guy to have a chance. What I'm hoping for as a Dr Post backer is Ancient Warrior guns for the front, presses Authentic, Lebda and NY Traffic to complete the first half-mile in ~45 seconds and carries the latter two wide into the backstretch. Optimally, Jesus' Team will sit just behind them, and Dr Post in sixth, riding the rail unencumbered until the far turn. If that happens, it'll be a job well done for a horse who'll be 50-1, helping to burn out the front-runners so Dr Post can gun 'em all down late. Pass.<br />
<br />
<b>#5 Fame to Famous (30-1): </b>A turf horse with one lifetime win in eight tries for an 0-for-29 trainer in 2020, and whose claim to fame to this point is finishing fourth to a 73-1 shot on July 4 on the grass at Monmouth Park. A $12,500 check and participation medal awaits this poor guy, who may go off more than 100-1. Just don't see it.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Probable Haskell-Specific Wagers</h3>
<div>
I'll allocate about $30 to this race, with Dr Post at the front of most and with Authentic as a hedge in the event my top choice gets rolling too late. If using these as a template, reduce or raise the amount depending upon your budget. Base trifecta and superfecta amounts are 50 and 10 cents.</div>
<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>$5 trifecta 1 with 2, 3 with 2, 3 = $10</li>
<li>$2 trifecta 2 with 3 with 1, 6 7 = $6</li>
<li>$1 trifecta 1 with ALL with 3 = $5</li>
<li>$3 superfecta 1-2-3-7</li>
<li>$2 superfecta 1-2-7-3</li>
</ul>
<div>
<h3>
<b><br /></b></h3>
<h3>
<b>Late Pick 5 Sequence Ideas</b></h3>
<br />The all-stakes Race 10-14 Pick 5 is <i>stellar</i>, and I have <b>two stronger opinions</b> beyond the Haskell, and both horses are 9-2 on the morning line, so there's value -- <b>Global Campaign (#1, Race 10) and Dubini (#5, Race 13)</b>. A little on each race, with my probably Pick 5 tickets.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Race 10 -- Grade 3 Monmouth Cup:</b> <b><span style="color: #990000;">#1, Global Campaign</span></b> is a four-time winner in seven starts. The key race for me, albeit last summer, was his third-place finish in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga. The runner up that day -- Tacitus -- is an absolute beast, better than anyone in this field. An easy 2020 debut win in late April vs. softer foes and a so-so mile sprint effort in late May inspires enough confidence that bettors may dismiss the best horse in the field. May get 5-1 or 6-1, IMHO.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Race 11 -- Grade 1 United Nations:</b> In handicapping contest formats I'm using <b><span style="color: #990000;">#2, Standard Deviation (7-2)</span></b> over #1, Arkow (5-2 favorite), but for multi-race wagers I'm spreading to also include #5, Aquaphobia (9-2) and #9, Paret (6-1). Arklow has already banked almost $2 million of winnings, but I think trainer Graham Motion has Standard Deviation finely tuned in his second start since returning to the U.S. after running in a $10 million stakes race in Qatar in February. The horse is also 2-for-2 on the turf at Monmouth, albeit vs. lesser company.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Race 12 -- Grade 1 Haskell</b> (see above). </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Race 13 -- Wolf Hill Stakes:</b> <b><span style="color: #990000;">#5, Dubini </span></b>has been game vs. several more-superior horses to what he'll face in this 5.5 turf sprint on Saturday. Also 3-for-4 on the Monmouth turf and should get plenty of pace to close into, as is his preference. It's a deep field, but to me there's a lot of window-dressing. Dubini's prominent on all of my exotic tickets, and I'll mix in three others as safety valves: #9, Shekky Shebaz (5-2 favorite), #10, Regally Irish (20-1) and #11, American Sailor (5-1). </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Race 14 -- Grade 3 Molly Pitcher: <span style="color: #990000;">#11, Horologist (5-1) is my top selection</span></b>, as I think this New Jersey-bred is simply the classiest in this 11-horse field and maybe bettors look away after she pulled and didn't complete her last race on May 31 (Grade 2 at Santa Anita). She shifts to the barn of noted trainer Bill Mott and sports four seemingly OK works since. She was absolutely good enough to win the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn in mid-April but got stuck behind a wall of horses, and to me this field pales in comparison to that one. I'll use 4 others as it's a deep field: #1, She's a Julie (5-2), #2, Royal Flag (3-1), #5, Vault (9-2) and #8, Cloud Charmer (30-1). </div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>50-cent Pick 5: 1 with 1, 2, 5, 9 with 1 with 5 with 1, 2, 5, 8, 11 = $10</li>
<li>50-cent Pick 5: 4, 8 with 2 with 1 with 5, 9, 10, 11 with 11 = $4</li>
<li>50-cent Pick 5: 1 with 1, 2, 9 with 2, 7 with 5 with 1, 2, 5, 11 = $12</li>
<li>50-cent Pick 5: 8 with 1, 2, 9 with 2 with 5, 9, 10, 11 with 11 = $6</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
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Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-23071563046482313762020-06-20T12:09:00.002-04:002020-06-20T12:09:26.265-04:00Belmont Stakes Pick: Tap It to Win Over PneumaticA bit pressed for time ahead of a graduation-birthday-Father's Day cookout at home, and after spending a few hours with my Pick 5 consigliere Coach Dan mapping out our group ticket for races 6-10, here's a few thoughts on playing today's Belmont Stakes.<br />
<br />
A little on each horse, ranked in my order of preference and with morning lines and betting advice:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><b>#1, Tap It to Win</b> (6-1): Simply the fastest horse in the field and benefits from the cutback in the today's race distance to 10 from 9 furlongs. I believe his speed carries. Unless he rears up at the gate, this one <i>should </i>easily find the lead. The naysayer will knock the caliber of talent he's beaten to start 2020, but I think those were merely foundation races, and trainer Mark Casse recognizes this horse just wants to go from the gate. Tap It to Win has the pedigree, and has already proven proficient in 1-turn races. Toss the 2 stakes flops last fall, where the jockey clearly couldn't get the horse to settle. To me it's gun for the front and make others eat dust.</li>
<li><b>#10, Pneumatic</b> (8-1): This horse has a Mr. Money feel -- probably a 1-turn horse who's starting to show maturity after just 3 lifetime races. Didn't run as a 2-year-old but proved to be tactical in his first two races (both wins), and ran really game in his first stakes try in the Matt Winn at Churchill Downs on May 23, losing to the best 3-year-old in training (Maxfield). Pneumatic is prominent in all of my wagers and a win candidate, especially if he's within 1-2 lengths of the leaders coming into the stretch. Real grinder-type that I like at Belmont.</li>
<li><b>#8, Tiz the Law</b> (6-5): Deserving favorite and an obvious win candidate. Horse is 4-for-5 lifetime with two Grade 1 wins (one at Belmont at age 2) and quite the resume. Candidly, my concerns are with the connections (trainer Barclay Tagg just a 7% win rate in graded stakes), and I can see jockey Manuel Franco getting outdone by the better riders. Wouldn't be the least bit surprised, but I'm also not taking short odds on a New York-bred. The last time one of them won the Belmont...1882, 118 years ago. Using on all tickets but wouldn't bet win, place or show at all. </li>
<li><b>#9, Dr. Post</b> (5-1): Intriguing but second tier here. Hard to argue betting against trainer Todd Pletcher and top rider Irad Ortiz, but I think he beat some cupcakes, including a horse who was a distant 4th to Pneumatic in the aforementioned Matt Winn Stakes. Among the opponents he beat in his maiden-breaking win on March 29 were a Pletcher stablemate who hasn't raced since, and the third-place finisher there's 0-for-8 lifetime. "B"-type use for me, underneath in exotic wagers and in some backup Pick 5 tickets.</li>
<li><b>#4, Modernist</b> (15-1): I was sorta talked into this one but see some merit as an underneath horse, as the replays I reviewed show a 1-paced horse with stamina questions and no real late kick that could, say, keep him with a runaway speed type like Tap It to Win. I sense he's going to get used up early, so his ceiling seems to be 3rd or 4th best.</li>
<li><b>#2, Sole Volante</b> (9/2): Dead closer who's going to be 15 lengths off the pace a half-mile in and will need to ride the rail and hope for a seem, blazing early fractions and for those speedsters to completely fall apart. Stakes win at Tampa Bay Downs in February was like that, though the horse he beat (Independence Hall) was really poorly ridden by jockey Jose Ortiz, and to me there's a scent of luckiness in that win. Plus Luca Panici is a Florida-based rider who isn't at all familiar with Belmont's sandy and long oval, so he's <i>maybe </i>a horse to use 3rd in trifectas.</li>
<li><b>#5, Farmington Road</b> (15-1): Been here, done that. A plodder with zero gate speed and who, aside from 2 races vs. much softer fields, isn't a great-looking closer type. Pass.</li>
<li><b>#3, Max Player</b> (15-1): Won the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct in February, but that was a so-so race where he sat off the pace and watched the others wilt. May be better than Sole Volante and Farmington Road, but to me he hasn't faced real horses like the ones above.</li>
<li><b>#6, Fore Left</b> (30-1): Chases the pace for about 5-6 furlongs before wilting. Only hits the board if the dirt track proves to be a carousel today and no closer types can factor. Pass.</li>
<li><b>#7, Jungle Runner</b> (50-1): Just happy to be here. </li>
</ul>
<div>
Most of my wagers are as part of Pick 5 tickets with the Coach Dan team, and I'm setting aside only about $60-$80 for my own wagers. For straight Belmont Stakes bets, I'll gauge the odds on Tap It to Win before committing to a win bet, as I think he's less compelling at 3-1 or 7-2 odds than, say, Pneumatic. I also wouldn't talk bettors of Dr. Post at a decent price and with the top jockey. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Below are a few tickets I've already punched, keying my top selections in the Pick 5 sequence:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Race 6, #5 Selflessly (5-2): Grade 3 Wonder Again, 1 mile on turf</li>
<li>Race 7, #8 My Sassy Sarah (5-2): Allowance for non-winners of 2 lifetime races, 6 furlong turf</li>
<ul>
<li>$1 Pick 3: 4, 8, 12, 14 with 4 with 2, 5 = $8</li>
</ul>
<li>Race 8, #4 Casual (3-1): Grade 1 Acorn for 3-year-old fillies, 1 mile on dirt</li>
<ul>
<li>Singling in a $1 Pick 3 ticket thru race 10: 4 with 2, 5 with 1, 4, 8, 9, 10 = $10</li>
</ul>
<li>Race 9, #2 Oleksandra (7-2): Grade 1 Juiper, 6 furlongs on turf</li>
<ul>
<li>Prominent on all of my tickets and one of my top selections in the sequence; there's plenty of speed for this closer to chase, so unless the track bias is for front-runner types, she's got an enormous shot vs. what's otherwise an all-male field</li>
<li>Certainly playable as a win wager at 7-2, and #5 Stubbins (3-1) is also going to be prominent; will consider exactas and trifectas with these two up top</li>
<li>Playing $5 daily double 5 with 1, 10 = $10</li>
<ul>
<li><i>I think his odds will be better, hence the higher-priced ticket than w/my top pick</i></li>
</ul>
<li>Playing $2 daily double 2 with 1, 8, 9, 10 = $8</li>
</ul>
</ul>
<div>
My own Pick 5 tickets for Races 6-10, the first three as a 50-cent base wager and the fourth at $1:<br /><ul>
<li>1, 5 with 8 with 2, 4 with 2, 5 with 1, 8, 10 = $12</li>
<li>5 with 4, 12, 14 with 4 with 2, 5 with 1, 10 =$6</li>
<li>5 with 8 with ALL with 2, 5 with 1 = $7</li>
<li>1, 2, 5 with 8 with 4 with 2, 5 with 10 = $6</li>
</ul>
</div>
<br /></div>
Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-36785452432631908912020-03-29T11:22:00.001-04:002020-03-29T11:22:20.129-04:00Horse Racing Contest Perspective in Virus ScareSo I've been too busy to write thoughtful blogs the past 6 months, but with far more time at home responsibly playing my role in "physical (not social) distancing," it's time to dust off this hobby and get busy with self-effacing handicapping-contest blunders and unwanted horse racing advice in these scary days of a global health pandemic.<br />
<br />
The point is to lighten the mood at a time when COVID-19 has disrupted our daily routines and will reshape our interactions and lifestyles in the days and months ahead. Probably forever. But, hey, if eliminating strange bro-hugs is the worst byproduct, we can all live with that.<br />
<br />
On a personal level, I'm thankful as hell that my family has stayed healthy throughout this episode and I hope this post finds you well.<br />
<br />
On a professional level, there's been no change to my 50+ hour workweeks other than they're now entirely from home.<br />
<br />The coronavirus crisis hasn't tested my sanity too much, probably because it satisfies my introverted side, home life has been good, and more time with my aging teens will quickly dry up as they prepare for college and life beyond. <br /><br />And whereas other sports are on hiatus, the horse racing industry has <i>shockingly</i> been functional in several jurisdictions and the only live sport going for about the past month. So I've been able to play the occasional small-dollar after-work games hosted by online-contest sites and dipped my toe into an <a href="https://horsetourneys.com/leaderboard/contest/611987" target="_blank">NHC qualifier on Saturday</a>.<br /><br />The end result was a 21st-place finish vs. 220 contestants and $165 refund, where in the current global health scare I'll highlight the bright side instead of the negative and provide this bit of tournament-specific advice: <b>don't let early race "bad beats" or wrong sides of the coin-flip derail the rest of your contest. </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Saturday's 12-race contest got off to an awful start, as at the last second I switched off the winner in the opener (Highland Glory, <a href="http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=GP&raceDate=03/28/2020&cy=USA&rn=7" target="_blank">Gulfstream Park race 7</a>) and pissed away $15.60 of win-place points in favor of the "hot jockey" who, of course, put my horse in awful position and ran last of 11.<br /><br />Two races later I was torn between two horses and picked the wrong one, losing out on an 11-1 winner with a better jockey than the low-percentage guy who rode my selection into traffic and <a href="http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=TAM&raceDate=03/28/2020&cy=USA&rn=7" target="_blank">fifth-place</a> in race 7 at Tampa. Ultimately, the $36.20 of winnings from Native Hawk <i>would have been </i>good enough to help me finish second and qualify for <a href="https://www.ntra.com/nhc2021/" target="_blank">NHC 2021</a>, but that's spilled milk.<br />
<br />
After cursing at myself for the next 5-10 minutes I regained perspective:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Only three races into the contest, I wasn't dead in the water</li>
<ul>
<li>I <i>did </i>have (<a href="http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=GP&raceDate=03/28/2020&cy=USA&rn=8" target="_blank">Vekomo in the Sir Shackleton</a>) in the sandwich race to build upon</li>
</ul>
<li>Deep fields on Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream provided opportunities for playable long-shots later in the contest card</li>
<li>The grim realities of a global contagion make fretting over a loss in a fantasy contest a complete lack of perspective, so stay grounded</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
From there I reached with Jimmy D in race 8 at Tampa in a garbage field, but then hit the board in four straight (3 winners, 1 place), including $30 and $27 scores with <a href="http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=GP&raceDate=03/28/2020&cy=USA&rn=11" target="_blank">Swiss Skydiver</a> and <a href="http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=GP&raceDate=03/28/2020&cy=USA&rn=12" target="_blank">Bemma's Boy</a> and $8 from an <a href="http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=GG&raceDate=03/28/2020&cy=USA&rn=4" target="_blank">obvious 9-5 shot at Golden Gate</a>, vaulting me into 11th and within reach of a Top 3.<br /><br />From there I <i>could </i>have played the 10th contest race a bit smarter, picking up $4.80 of place money on the preferred <a href="http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=GG&raceDate=03/28/2020&cy=USA&rn=5" target="_blank">La Waun</a> at Golden Gate instead of Bullet Drill. But that and taking heavily favored Tiz the Law -- a shoe-in winner of the Florida Derby -- would, in hindsight, have moved me up maybe 5-6 places in the final standings, not good enough for the NHC.<br /><br />The differences for me were passing on Native Hawk earlier on, and then <a href="http://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=GP&raceDate=03/28/2020&cy=USA&rn=13" target="_blank">Ballagh Rocks</a> getting caught in traffic in the 11th contest race and finishing off the board. I was the highest player on the leaderboard to have that horse, so success there would have been fruitful.<br /><br />Yet I can live with the outcomes:<div>
<ul>
<li>Top 10% finish (though I don't give a hoot about NHC Tour points; a scam to encourage high-volume tournament play and that doesn't gauge handicapping-contest efficiency)</li>
<li>Stuck to principals of prior blog posts:</li>
<ul>
<li>patience</li>
<li>no overthinking</li>
<li>keep to more-logical long-shots and don't reach too often</li>
</ul>
<li>Appreciate the equine athletes, their jockeys and trainers and a seemingly safe day on the track</li>
<li>A relaxing, enjoyable and frivolous way to spend a rainy and cool afternoon on a great hobby.</li>
</ul>
<br /><br /></div>
Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-22223518706708315112019-10-31T22:54:00.001-04:002019-10-31T22:54:37.568-04:00Saturday Breeders Cup AnalysisIt's been some time that I've posted, but got a head start on Breeders Cup handicapping and so am posting thoughts about each of the 9 races carded for Santa Anita on Saturday. <div>
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<a href="about:invalid#zClosurez" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="Image result for 2019 breeders cup" border="0" height="148" 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" width="200" /></a>I'll circle back Saturday morning with my full list of proposed wagers for the card, once I've decided how to allocate my budget (probably $100-$150), but in the meantime offer my top 3 in each race.<br /><br /><h3>
<b>Race 4, Filly and Mare Sprint (2:55 p.m. ET)</b></h3>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>#4, Come Dancing (5-2)</b></li>
<li><b>#1, Covfefe (2-1)</b></li>
<li><b>#9, Spiced Perfection (4-1)</b></li>
<li>Long Shot Who Can Hit the Board: #7, Selcourt (10-1)</li>
</ul>
<div>
A great way to kick off the card, albeit chalky. I'm sure of my ticket structures, but view Come Dancing as a "strong single" in the first leg of the Pick 4, allowing me to go as far as 6 deep in Race 5 and be alive to prices that I like in Races 6 and 7. In the F&M Sprint, trainer Carlos Martin has a sprint beast in Come Dancing. Finishing second to Midnight Bisou, probably winner of the Distaff (Race 10) and in a June Grade 1 at Belmont, and losing to the likes of Wow Cat showed she can't go beyond a mile, but she was really game in those efforts. And she showed maturity in her last two, proving the ability to sit a bit off the pace and chase down the leaders. </div>
</div>
<div>
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<h3>
<b>Race 5, Turf Sprint (3:33 p.m.)</b></h3>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>#4, Shekky Shebaz (15-1)</b></li>
<li><b>#11, Om (15-1)</b></li>
<li><b>#5, Stubbins (12-1)</b></li>
</ul>
<div>
Dismiss painfully slow workout times at your own risk. Trainer Jason Service has <i>the </i>fastest horse from the gate here, and I think Shekky Shebaz is simply the fastest sprinter and can last the 5-furlong distance. If he stumbles I'm cooked, in which case I think Om is second best and will absolutely hit the board, spicing up the exacta, trifecta and superfecta combos, though his long layoff coming into this race was the primary deterrent from making him my win selection.</div>
<div>
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<h3>
Race 6, Dirt Mile (4:10 p.m.)</h3>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b style="background-color: yellow;">#4, Mr. Money (6-1) ** BEST BET **</b></li>
<li><b>#5, Omaha Beach (8-5)</b></li>
<li><b>#1, Giant Expectations (12-1)</b></li>
<li><i>Also using #3, Spun to Run (6-1) and #8, Blue Chipper (20-1)</i></li>
</ul>
This race has always been my favorite and is quintessential U.S. racing -- a fast-flying mile at two turns on the dirt. I think bettors may dismiss Mr. Money off a Grade 1 loss to a 30-1 shot in the Pennsylvania Derby, but don't dismiss the chances of the best miler in the field. His sire Goldencents won this race twice, and I think Mr. Money's extremely tactical. <i>If </i>jockey Gabriel Saez breaks clean and can give Mr. Money the same kind of trip he gave By My Standards in winning the Louisiana Derby earlier this year, it'll be a profitable day for yours truly. I believe he's got enough gate speed to make Omaha Beach, Coal Front and Blue Chipper have to gun wide to pass him into the first turn. If that happens, I think Money can settle into a mid-pack rail position just off the leaders and hopefully find a seam late to roll home victorious.<br /></div>
<div>
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<h3>
Race 7, Filly and Mare Turf (4:54 p.m.)</h3>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>#8, Castle Lady (15-1)</b></li>
<li><b>#2, Sistercharlie (8-5)</b></li>
<li><b>#9, Villa Marina (8-1)</b></li>
</ul>
<div>
I will use these on all tickets and probably in small exacta and trifecta box plays. It's <i>really tough </i>to gauge the European shippers, but I liked what I saw enough from Castle Lady on her race replays to think she's got a shot here. There's no questioning the class of Sistercharlie, a 10-time winner in just 14 starts and with $3.5 million of winnings at age 5. Yet she's an <i>extremely deep </i>closer -- a style I'm unsure will work well at Santa Anita. As you're watching this race, prepare for #5 Mirth and #6 Thais to set a swift early pace. I expect Castle Lady to sit third or fourth as the pace-setters duke it out, as her effort at Keeneland in October (and prior races) showed she's keen from the starting gate but willing to settle down to conserve energy. That's what I expect here -- sit third off the pace, find a seam and hope to hold off a host of late runners. Jockey Mickael Barzalona has tasted success at the Breeders Cup before, which means he's done this. In 2017 it was piloting Talismanic to a 14-1 win in the 2017 edition of the BC Turf. A ha!</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Race 8, Breeders Cup Sprint (5:36 p.m.)</h3>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b style="background-color: yellow;">#2, Hog Creek Hustle (20-1) ** TOP 3 PICK **</b></li>
<li><b>#9, Imperial Hint (4-1)</b></li>
<li><b>#4, Mitole (9-5)</b></li>
</ul>
<div>
Make no mistake. I <i>will </i>be playing 2-9-ALL and 9-2-ALL combinations for the trifecta and potentially superfecta. I love Hog Creek Hustle. The caveat is that 6 furlongs may not be allow this guy enough time to get into his late burst. I'd back up the Brink's truck were this a 7-furlong race (his preferred distance, IMO), but view the shorter distance more tepidly. I'll still support him and think it's a two-horse race with Imperial Hint. There's a TON of early pace in this race that I think can burn out, setting up Hog Creek Hustle to mow 'em all down late at a big price. <i>If </i>the quarter- and half-mile times are 21 second and 43 seconds as I anticipate, it's game, set and match. Hog Creek Hustle wins.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Race 9, TVG Mile (6:20 p.m.)</h3>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>#13, Hey Gaman (12-1)</b></li>
<li><b>#12, Lord Glitters (12-1)</b></li>
<li><b>#9, Circus Maximus (3-1)</b></li>
</ul>
<div>
Let's be honest. How many U.S. handicappers watch enough European racing to figure this one out? Half of 14 horses are Euro shippers. I'm just not enamored with the U.S.-based entrants, and watched a ton of replays to get a sense of our visitors from across the pond. Betting-wise, I think most will default to the top 3 morning-line choices, but none of them catch my fancy. That brings me to jockey Frankie Dettori on Hey Gaman, a turf sprinter who has shown little in his past 2 but with different riders. Dettori gets back aboard a horse who, from replays, seems to do his best when on or just a shade off the lead. I'm looking for Hey Gaman to attend the pace and hopefully steal this one, held together with bubble gum or Flex Seal. It's a bit of a risk, but aren't <i>all </i>wagers?!</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Race 10, Distaff (7 p.m.)</h3>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b style="background-color: yellow;">#4, Midnight Bisou (6-5) ** TOP 3 PICK **</b></li>
<li><b>#3, Street Band (10-1)</b></li>
<li><b>#5, Dunbar Road (6-1)</b></li>
<li>Long Shot Who Can Hit the Board: #7, Secret Spice (10-1)</li>
</ul>
<div>
I won't belabor this one. I wanted to pick Street Band, but Midnight Bisou is just the class of the entire Saturday card. Her last two losses (in late 2018; she's 7-for-7 in 2019) were to Monomoy Girl, who readers know I put on a pedestal. And those losses were close. In Saturday's race I think she can do what she wants and can deal with any sort of pace. I sense 3-4 horses will set a blistering early pace, but Midnight Bisou keeps her powder dry, lets them wilt, then holds off a maturing Street Band in what, for me, is a strong straight exacta play and single in late Pick 3 and 4 tickets.</div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Race 11, Longines Turf (7:40 p.m.)</h3>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>#10, Old Persian (4-1)</b></li>
<li><b>#9, Bricks and Mortar (9-5)</b></li>
<li><b>#7, Alounak (20-1)</b></li>
</ul>
<div>
These are the only 3 horses I'll use. I give Old Persian a slight edge vs. Bricks and Mortar, only for facing seemingly tougher competition in Europe. But I wouldn't be surprised if the latter won -- a stellar horse. I watched many replays on Old Persian, who to me needs to be a bit forwardly placed (preferably third for much of the race) and is a grinder, exactly what's needed at 12 furlongs. A key race for me is the Sheema Classic in Dubai in late March, where Old Persian beat a quality runner named Desert Encounter, who last month was infinitely the best in winning the Grade 1 Canadian International at Woodbine in Toronto, a race where my third choice Alounak was runner-up. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Race 12, Breeders Cup Classic (8:44 p.m.)</h3>
<div>
<ul>
<li><b>#7, Higher Power (6-1)</b></li>
<li><b>#11, Code of Honor (4-1)</b></li>
<li><b>#5, Yoshida (8-1)</b></li>
</ul>
<div>
I'm not as jazzed up about this race as many of the earlier ones but am siding with Higher Power, a 4-year-old who did little in 2018 but has taken several steps forward in his last four races, including a dominant win in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in August. A month later he came back with a decent third-place in the Awesome Again after almost face-planting and tossing jockey Flavien Prat out of the starting gate, but to me he showed guts that afternoon and still battled in a race he didn't need to win. If he gets the jump on #6 Elate from the gate and gets the second spot behind presumed pacesetter War of Wills, Higher Power will have an excellent shot to outlast the rest. And there was no better rider in California this year than Prat -- a big tactical advantage. </div>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-57279777172017810492019-07-20T16:01:00.002-04:002019-07-20T16:02:27.247-04:00Haskell Pick (If It Ever Runs): EverfastI waited to post thoughts until after Monmouth Park management made a not-to-surprising debacle out of its biggest and most profitable racing day. <br />
<br />
Saturday's turn of events doesn't surprise me one bit, in that Monmouth had a few days to follow the lead of Saratoga and three other Mid-Atlantic peers and reschedule and/or run an abbreviated morning or twilight program, and instead doubled-down on an awful hand, insistent on running a 14-race card in a 110-degree-plus heat index.<br />
<br />
The error wasn't so much because of the heat itself, but because selling out to NBC to broadcast on a Saturday instead of the usual Sunday was not only going to hurt attendance and handle. It also put it into an enormous safety spotlight in the wake of 30 racing fatalities at Santa Anita Park during the spring meet. Others that I respect also tweeted for days that Monmouth should have postponed.<br />
<br />
Rather, it only drew more negative attention and turned off paying customers after events in California sullied the sport. Santa Anita's ownership group has basically done everything in its power to sabotage the racing product to be able to cash in on the extremely valuable land. It's my opinion their concern about safety is halfhearted at best.<br />
<br />
So in that context, a venue like Monmouth Park had decisions to make, and made the wrong ones and further dented its credibility by insisting on full steam ahead. Now, you've got annoyed patrons, unwanted attention and tons of questions about what the heck's going on there.<br />
<br />
Anyway, enough of that. With the adjusted 8:05 p.m. scheduled post time for the Haskell, I had a little more time to dig into handicapping the race, assuming it still goes off as planned. If you're still planning on playing the race, or can use the delay as an opportunity to catch out what could be a decent twilight all-stakes card of 5 races, here's a little info on the 7-horse Haskell.<br />
<br />
I'll rate them in my order of preference, from best to worst.<br />
<br />
<b>#6, Everfast (10-1):</b> I get that this guy's 1-for-12 lifetime, and this isn't a pound-the-table call, but a repeat of his Preakness runner-up finish will be good enough to beat a blazing field where you can poke holes in each of the front-runners. The Pat Day Mile on May 4 will prove to be a key 3-year-old race. Winner Mr. Money <i>would have</i> been my bet-the-house pick if entered in the Haskell, but instead he went and romped in the Grade 3 Indiana Derby last Saturday <i>night </i>(hint to Monmouth Park and the Oceanport town council). Runner-up Hog Creek Hustle impressed in winning the Woody Stephens on June 8 at 18-to-1. Everfast finished fifth in the Pat Day, but I sense was more forwardly-placed than preferred in a one-turn race that's shorter than the Haskell, and should relish both the added distance and fast fractions. I like the rider switch to the patient Julien Leparoux. <b>Everfast will be prominent on my tickets and is my selection to win the 2019 Haskell Invitational, rolling late.</b><br />
<br />
<b>#7, Maximum Security (8-5): </b>I <i>really </i>wanted to back this guy as my top choice, and he could very well be the best in the field and win, but I'm worried that he could struggle if he doesn't get the lead position through the first turn. Max has a win from off the pace, but that was in a sprint on the mud in his second lifetime start against way softer company. Like most of the other fast starters today, it's unclear whether he'd take to sitting mid-pack, say, and getting dirt kicked in his face. I'm more inclined to think he's got to be able to withstand 22, 45 and 1:09-type fractions through the first three quarters of the race <i>plus </i>outlast everyone to the wire. Trip-wise I think he'll be right there to see who's first to the finish line, but he'll fade a bit late and get passed by a closing Everfast. I'll use him in the win spot on some tickets, but otherwise underneath in the second and third spots at worst.<br />
<br />
<b>#1, King for a Day (5-2):</b> The slipper's on the other foot for the King this time, breaking from the rail draw that's unfavorable today with so many front-runners in the race. His win in the Pegasus vs. Maximum Security was legit, though he caught a horse who almost tossed the jockey at the start, and <i>still </i>had to gut it out to win. It'll be interesting to see whether jockey John Velazquez sits chilly from the gate and reserves energy for a later, closing-type run or engages the early speed. I'm not worried about him getting the jump on #2 Joevia early on, but rather getting pinned in by two horses with no chance of winning -- #3 Spun to Run and #4 Bethlehem Road. Switch posts with Max and I <i>may </i>give the nod here, but drawn inside, I sense it's either speed-and-fade and hold on for a minor award, or a mid-pack effort where he passes the faders. Using second through fourth, just not in the win spot.<br />
<br />
<b>#5, Mucho Gusto (2-1):</b> Alright, he's going to be the post-time favorite, and I get that Bob Baffert has won more Haskell titles and eaten more at Max's Hot Dogs than me, but I went back and watched the Sunland Derby as it was the one two-turn race where Mucho Gusto faced fast fractions. In that prep for the Kentucky Derby, he broke sharply and cleanly from the inside post, rode the rail around and started to wilt after putting up a 1:09.3 for three-quarters. In my opinion, his two wins coming into the Haskell (both Grade 3 races in California) look stylish on paper, but were in comfortable fractions that he won't see here. Tactically I see him trying to get the jump on Maximum Security, which <i>could </i>happen. I just have questions about stamina as two of his two losses were both at a mile-plus. I'm not as high as a win prospect here, but will use defensively in the exacta, trifecta and multi-race exotics.<br />
<br />
<b>#3, Spun to Run (15-1): </b>There's a lot to dislike, including a 4-month layoff, first-time blinkers and climbing a half-dozen rungs up the class later into Grade 1 stakes competition. Yet local jockey Paco Lopez can be an asset, knowing how to ride this course. Fourth-place ceiling.<br />
<br />
<b>#1, Joevia (10-1):</b> Alright, alright. I shouldn't knock the third-place finisher from the Belmont Stakes, but he got the <i>easiest </i>of trips -- slow fractions, unchallenged, rode the rail all the way around -- and still couldn't close the deal. Past performances reflect he's generally always near the lead, but in my opinion those were underwhelming slow races, and I could see him bouncing badly off the Belmont and therefore will leave him off my tickets.<br />
<br />
<b>#4, Bethlehem Road (20-1): </b>Sorry, can't consider a credible play off a 23-length loss in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby in a six-horse field. We'll hear his name for about half the race before he fades into obscurity and returns to races at Parx where he belongs. Pass.<br />
<h3>
Probable Wagers</h3>
<div>
I don't intend to put much money into this race, as I don't think it's that good a bet. That said, here's a few ideas I'm considering -- all trifectas. I'll likely use Everfast and Maximum Security in the Pick 5.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
$10 trifecta 6 with 7 with 1, 5 = $20</div>
<div>
$3 trifecta 1, 7 with 6 with 1, 5, 7 = $12</div>
<div>
$2 trifecta 1, 7 with 1, 5, 7 with 6 = $8 (<i>the latter two to maybe break even on three trifecta plays</i>)</div>
Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-78404250370232912772019-07-13T15:32:00.000-04:002019-07-13T15:32:11.538-04:00Grade 1 Diana Tops PH Contest CardAfter taking a collar last weekend in three races, I'm eager to get back in the win column on a 4-race <a href="http://www.publichandicapper.com/odds.cfm" target="_blank">Public Handicapper</a> slate that's highlighted by the shortest yet most intriguing race -- the Grade 1 Diana Stakes on the first weekend at Saratoga Race Course.<br /><br />There are some <i>serious </i>champions in the field, though my <a href="http://www.njhorseplayer.com/" target="_blank">Preakness Stakes pick of the day</a> -- Mitchell Road -- returns to the track and I think has a strong chance for an upset win.<br /><br />There's also a pair of races at Arlington, outside of Chicago, with Race 7 -- the Arlington Handicap -- looking a lot tougher to handicap than the Hatoof Stakes (Race 5). The fourth is a so-so field of Grade 3 talent at Woodbine in Toronto.<br /><br />After surviving <a href="https://www.belmar5.com/Race/Results/9379/IndividualResult/CJqS?#U37183245" target="_blank">the Belmar 5</a> this morning, I'm hoping a day of some ocean and beach put me in the zone for picking some winners. Let's find out.<br /><br />
<h3>
Arlington Park, Race 5: Hatoof Stakes, 4:38 p.m. ET</h3>
<br />
<b>Selection: #2, Delta's Kingdom (5-1)</b><br />
Alternates: #4, Indigo Gin (8-1); #6, Princess Carolina (5-2)<br />
<br />
Two scratches reduce this to only a mildly interesting 7-horse field. There's nothing majorly scientific about my choice of Delta's Kingdom. She faced tougher on June 15 in the Grade 3 Regret at Churchill Downs and ran a decent 5th vs. 10 others and outran today's favorite, Princess Carolina. It was her first try vs. stakes competition, and this looks like a softer spot facing other horses who mostly beat older, softer fields. Delta Kingdom may be late early on, but should be strong late.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Woodbine, Race 8: Ontario Matron Stakes, 4:50 p.m.</h3>
<br />
<b>Selection: #4, Giovanna Blues (20-1)</b><br />
Alternates: #7, Niigon's Bay (6-1); #8, Katie Baby (5-2)<br />
<br />
I liked the alternates above enough to use in a small exacta box with Giovanna Blues, a long-shot on paper. Yet if you dig a little you'll find that she's a decent horse on synthetic tracks (2-for-4) and had a good 2019 debut vs. similar-level stakes competition, finishing 6th only beaten about 2 lengths. Two really aggressive workouts since tell me she's perhaps in good form for her second start with a trainer I admittedly don't know. I generally don't like closer types at the mile-and-a-sixteenth distance on this track, but believe Giovanna's a major upset prospect. She has also gotten support on the PH.com odds, listed at 13-to-1 as of 3 p.m. ET.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Arlington Park, Race 7: Arlington Handicap, 5:46 p.m.</h3>
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<b>Selection: #5, El Picaro (9-2)</b><br />
Alternates: #7, The Great Day (6-1); #9, Callum Road (9-2)<br />
<br />
I think this'll be one of the more-formful races of the four this afternoon, but didn't like 7-2 favorite Bandua's post position, as he's going to have to work to clear some front-runners to establish a decent position. I think he runs the risk of getting hemmed in, and instead landed on Chilean shipper El Picaro. He ran a decent sixth in both his U.S. and 2019 debut at Churchill on June 15. The competition that day in the Grade 2 Wise Dan was more serious than this, and a sharp June 29 workout suggests jockey Jose Valdivia Jr. has a live mount who <i>may </i>be comfortable on the lead if needed. I'd prefer him to be on the front end, as I think Arlington's turf is more challenging for closer types. We'll see, but either way I think he could go higher than his 9-to-2 morning line.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Saratoga, Race 9: Diana Stakes, 5:46 p.m.</h3>
<br />
<b>Selection: #3, Mitchell Road (8-1)</b><br />
Alternates: #4, Sistercharlie (8-5); #6, Homerique (5-2)<br />
<br />
The intrigue in a field of six that includes four trained by Chad Brown is who takes the lead. I love these tactical types of races. The three inside horses all seem to want the lead, and I sorta think Brown entered 15-to-1 rail horse Thais as a rabbit for his other runners, namely #2 Rushing Fall, who's on the verge of breaking $2 million in winnings and has lost just once (by a neck) in nine lifetime races. She's serious for sure, though I think we may see jockey Javier Castellano sit patiently and stalk the stablemate. Mitchell Road is the X factor. Though she won the Gallorette wire-to-wire on May 18, the race prior at Fairgrounds showed Mitchell Road can rate a bit. I <i>think </i>jockey Jose Lezcano will try and beat Castellano to the punch for the position just off Thais' flank. If he's able to do that, I think we've got a shot at an upset vs. some very prominent turf runners.Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-64766155845997694842019-07-06T11:47:00.005-04:002019-07-06T11:47:51.033-04:00Stars and Stripes Selections in Public Handicapper ContestHopefully everyone had a safe and enjoyable July 4 celebration!<br /><br />This week the Public Handicapper editors give us a challenging Pick 4 sequence at Belmont Park, capped off by a Grade 2 Suburban that's stacked for the Stars and Stripes Festival.<br /><br />I'm skipping the first one -- Race 7, the Belmont Oaks Invitational -- as I've got no feel for a 9-horse field with three European shippers and one from Japan, and where one of trainer Chad Brown's trio (5-to-2 favorite and speed ball Newspaperofrecord) is vulnerable and may be a setup scenario for his other two runners, neither of which I love. I'll skip on making a selection there.<br /><br />Otherwise here's my thoughts on Races 8-10, including <b>my pick of the day -- #10, Cordmaker, in the Suburban </b>-- who has a chance to blow up the tote vs. a prohibitive 9-to-5 favorite.<br />
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<h3>
Belmont, Race 8: Nerud Stakes, 5:05 p.m.</h3>
<br />
<b>Selection: #3, Warrior's Club (10-1)</b><br />
Alternates: #4, Nicodemus (6-1); #8, Pat On the Back (4-1)<br />
<br />
My half-dozen readers will know I've got a thing for Warrior's Club, who got me to February's National Horseplayer Championship (NHC) with a 23-1 win last April at Keeneland. Yet this guy is 0-for-10 since -- somewhat alarming, though I like his post position and that I think he's freshened (2-month layoff) and could secure the rail pretty easily. If he's <i>not </i>within two lengths of the lead coming into the stretch, he's cooked and we'll know early whether he's got a chance to win. Outside of #9 Promises Fulfilled (the 2-to-1 morning line favorite), I think there's not much legitimate early speed in this 9-horse field. The widest draw hurts his chances, as he'll <i>really </i>have to gun for the lead. Lower-caliber horses like #5 Killybegs Captain and #6 Bon Raison (both 15-to-1) may gun it too, setting up a scenario where whichever of the four horses closest to the rail gets an opportunity for a golden, ground-saving trip and wins. Tactically, Warrior's Club is best-suited, with rail horse Majestic Dunhill a dead closer, #2 New York Central more of a stalker type, and #4 Nicodemus somewhere in between. Public Handicapper players have Warrior's Club at half his morning line, but I think real-money bettors will toss this D. Wayne Lucas trainee and we could get 10-to-1. Warrior's Club is an honest runner that's 5-for-32 lifetime, including 2 wins at today's distance. A modest early tempo that makes it harder for the closers to make up late ground puts Warrior's Club right in the mix.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Belmont, Race 9: Belmont Derby, 5:44 p.m.</h3>
<br />
<b>Selection: #5, Plus Que Parfait (15-1)</b><br />
Alternates: #13, Digital Age (9-2); #12, Demarchelier (6-1)<br />
<br />
I'm not going to overthink this one -- a 14-horse field with several <i>serious </i>turf runners at a mile-and-a-quarter. As much as I panned this guy in my Kentucky Derby analysis, I'm going with long-shot Plus Que Parfait this afternoon, trying turf a second time after his third-place debut on the grass last July at little-known Ellis Park in Kentucky. From there it took two more tries to get his debut win on dirt, followed by the usual silliness of anyone with a half-decent horse campaigning their horse for the Kentucky Derby, whether suited for the dirt of not. This guy got into the Run for the Roses by virtue of a win in Dubai in March, then ran a better-than-expected 8th of 19 in the Derby. He got a full four weeks of rest from published works after that and has since posted two on turf that signal he'll eventually be pointed full-time to the grass and will be fresh here. The horse he beat to the wire in the Derby -- Win Win Win -- did similar, impressively winning (albeit at a shorter distance and vs. less-accomplished horses) a black-type stakes on July 4 on the Belmont turf, and at 4-to-1 odds. Based on the Public Handicapper odds (as of 11 a.m. ET) of 16-to-1, I'm pretty confident Plus Que Parfait will at least hold his 15-to-1 morning line, and at that rate I'm willing to take the plunge on a horse who faced much tougher (Maximum Security, War of Will, Country House, Hog Creek Hustle...Win Win Win) than his turf-focused foes, including the Chad Brown runners.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Belmont, Race 10: Suburban Stakes, 6:18 p.m.</h3>
<br />
<b>Selection: #10, Cordmaker (12-1)</b><br />
Alternates: #4, Marconi (6-1); #3, Rocketry (8-1)<br />
<br />
Catholic Boy is rightfully the clear favorite (9-to-5) -- $2 million winner, top-flight victories on turf and dirt, rail draw today off a relatively easy win on the grass on Preakness Day. Yet the pace is going to be honest at today's mile-and-a-quarter distance, with my alternate selection Marconi on a three-race winning streak and a horse that <i>maybe </i>has finally figured things out after a fruitless three-year-old campaign and will be breathing down Catholic Boy's neck. I <i>really </i>like an outsider here -- 12-to-1 Cordmaker, who's completely dead on the Public Handicapper board at about 30-to-1. I'm shocked that 4x the number of people like #11 Pavel instead. Cordmaker is an off-the-pace invader from Maryland for little-known (to New York players) trainer Rodney Jenkins, who shrewdly picks his spots if based on 6 wins in 14 tries this year when shipping from his Laurel-Pimlico base. Cordmaker comes into today off a 7-furlong win on June 16 at Laurel vs. Race 8 entrant Majestic Dunhill and with a better trip would have won the Grade 3 Pimlico Special on May 17. In that race the horse got <i>completely </i>bottled up and made an eye-catching 8-wide run in the stretch before simply running out of room; he finished third vs. Tenfold. This afternoon he draws wide on Belmont's quirky 1.25-mile configuration but moves with ease, and I think will benefit by following also-ran early pacemaker #9 Realm out of the starting gate. To me, this son of Curlin has a major chance for an upset. Completely surprised the PH editors didn't give this one a closer look, and that contest players have basically dismissed. All the better for me, I suppose. Ideally he's going to sit midpack, get into his stride and come rolling home late.Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-91148103848797873612019-06-29T14:38:00.003-04:002019-07-05T10:42:46.156-04:00Wetting My Whistle on Queen's Plate DayAfter going winless in my <a href="http://www.publichandicapper.com/index.html" target="_blank">Public Handicapper contest</a> plays last Saturday, my attention is turned to Woodbine in Toronto, where the feature is the $1 million Queen's Plate, headlined by a promising three-year-old named Avie's Flatter.<br />
<br />
I'm going elsewhere in that one, landing on a 15-to-1 shot that's got some sneaky good efforts in his past performances, and am making Wet Your Whistle my top play in the race prior. I'm an enormous Caribou Club fan and respect his 7-to-5 odds in the Highlander (Race 9), but think he's not necessarily a 6-furlong horse and will want more distance.<br />
<br />
We'll see. Without further adieu, my four selections this week, along with a Pick 5 ticket for the Race 9-13 sequence, since I spent the time handicapping the contest card.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ-Ue9yj48XfTuolHieJxE_LugWOEi-f1KlCCNCV4sWD4sstlJzw3U1VUBG1uWfdhfZu33bmyC4j-2iuuRCqE_QDNS7Y3nC3j6FvmX9QPnovEeY3M_d2IdU38i2-CGOlSvj237sDnoyg/s1600/whistle.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="343" data-original-width="227" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJ-Ue9yj48XfTuolHieJxE_LugWOEi-f1KlCCNCV4sWD4sstlJzw3U1VUBG1uWfdhfZu33bmyC4j-2iuuRCqE_QDNS7Y3nC3j6FvmX9QPnovEeY3M_d2IdU38i2-CGOlSvj237sDnoyg/s200/whistle.png" width="131" /></a></div>
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<h3>
Woodbine, Race 9: Highlander Stakes, 4:51 p.m.</h3>
<br />
<b>Selection: #<span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">7, Wet Your Whistle (10-1) -- <i><a href="https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=WO&raceDate=06/29/2019&cy=CAN&rn=9" target="_blank">Won</a>, paid $9.60</i></span></b><br />
Alternates: #2, Caribou Club (7-5) -- <i>fifth</i>; #1, Extravagant Kid (6-1) -- <i>second</i><br />
<br />
One of my favorite horses, Caribou Club is every bit of 7-to-5. Seven lifetime victories, including three Grade 2 wins from June to January, but didn't handle the course in Dubai in March while finishing last of 13 in a $2 million stakes vs. top sprinters. That one's a complete toss -- maybe he also didn't like the travel -- but other than this being a soft Grade 1 field, I have doubts whether Club will like this short a distance and if his closing kick will be effective. That's why I'm turning to Wet Your Whistle. <i>Clearly </i>he's making a major perceived jump in class, but in a field this small where I think 4 of the 9 runners don't stand a chance, I'm willing to back a horse who seems to be learning to settle and had great late kick his last two races vs. softer foes. Perhaps the light bulb has finally turned on for this 4-year-old gelding, who is certainly going to get enough early speed to chase and I think will sit midpack before wheeling home at a price. Alex Cintron makes the trip for Maryland-based trainer Mike Trombetta, who is only 1-for-20 winning graded stakes in 2019, but has a live one here coming off two bullet workouts at Fair Hill. Just too many doubts about El Tormenta bouncing off a top effort in a Grade 2 win earlier this month, and am tepid on the rail horse.<br />
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<h3>
Woodbine, Race 10: Queens Plate, 5:36 p.m.</h3>
<br />
<b>Selection: #7, Federal Law (15-1) -- </b><i><a href="https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=WO&raceDate=06/29/2019&cy=CAN&rn=10" target="_blank">7th; tired late</a></i><br />
Alternates: #1, Desert Ride (8-1) -- <i>5th</i>; #14, Avie's Flatter (5-2) -- <i>2nd place</i><br />
<br />
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if one of my alternates wins. Avie's Flatter is a deserving favorite off of two restricted stakes wins in Canada last fall and a Grade 3 victory in the Transylvania at Keeneland in April on turf. Particularly in a mile-and-a-quarter race, the wide draw bothers me a bit, however, for a horse that I anticipate wants to be toward the early mix and may need to go a little faster than normal early to secure a good stalking position. In instead landed on Federal Law, who's 11-to-1 on the PH.com odds board and showed good tactical ability at times, almost beating Avie's Flatter in November in a good optional-claiming race and winning a 7-furlong Ontario-bred race last month at Woodbine. To me the question with him is whether European jockey Jamie Spencer gets Federal Law to settle into a good stride midpack. If he can, then I think we've got a live long-shot. If not, and the horse is all geeked up and headstrong at the start, my chances of a win decrease. Think Desert Ride's a serious contender here too, as she ran a second faster in her Woodbine Oaks win on June 8 than most of the other boys today ran in their prior races.<br />
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<h3>
Woodbine, Race 12: C$67,500 Allowance, 6:54 p.m.</h3>
<br />
<b>Selection: #9, Viewfinder (5-1) -- </b><i><a href="https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=WO&raceDate=06/29/2019&cy=CAN&rn=12" target="_blank">8th; never really involved</a></i><br />
Alternates: #10, Tricky Magician (10-1) -- <i>7th; involved early, swallowed up</i>; <span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">#4, Split My Pants (4-1) -- <b><i>Won, paid $8.20</i></b></span><br />
<br />
I <i>really </i>wanted to make Tricky Magician my top choice, but think the half-year layoff could be a detriment for a three-year-old making is first start of 2019 vs. seasoned foes. I'll use him on my Pick 5 ticket, but not as my top choice. That selection goes to the horse to his inside, Viewfinder. This 4-year-old Michael Keogh trainee makes his second start of the year after a solid off-the-pace third at the same level on June 2. On paper, to me it looks like he made tremendous progress in each race since July 15 and is a horse that's maturing and capable in a deep field. There's a lot of speed in this race, so I'd look for Eurico Da Silva to sit toward the rear, save ground, and make a big late charge.<br />
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<h3>
Woodbine, Race 13: C$62,500 Optional Claimer, 7:23 p.m.</h3>
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<b>Selection: #12, Killag Katie (8-1) -- </b><i><a href="https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=WO&raceDate=06/29/2019&cy=CAN&rn=13" target="_blank">4th after bad start</a></i><br />
Alternates: #2, Silent Respect (8-1) -- <i>7th; also bad start</i>; #3, Sanity (7-2) -- <i>3rd; lost by about 3</i><br />
<br />
Thought hard about using Silent Respect as my top choice, but think Da Silva has another horse here that he can let comfortably get into stride before surging late to win. I think the horses in gates 5-11 are going to gun for the lead; all are front-runners, letting Killag Katie move toward the rail early and draft behind the front-runners. Tactically I think we're in a better position than Silent Respect, whose rail draw I see as that 4-year-old filly's only detriment. Sanity wouldn't surprise me as the favorite, but I didn't like that mare's last two one-paced efforts.<br />
<br />
Pick 5 Play: I'm dabbling in the 20-cent pick 5 that starts with Race 9; believe it'll cost me $19.20<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>2, 7 with 1, 7, 14 with 8, 11 with 4, 8-10 with 2, 12</li>
</ul>
Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-17957774052560224522019-06-21T23:20:00.002-04:002019-06-21T23:20:41.519-04:00Ollie's Candy a Lock in Wilshire: Public Handicapper PicksA week after nailing a $13.80 winner and three of my alternate selections won their races, this weekend's Public Handicapper card isn't nearly as strong as last week's that featured an intriguing Stephen Foster Stakes evening card at Churchill Downs.<br />
<br />The editors had the unenviable task of slim pickings, and nothing looks all that great on the U.S. thoroughbred circuit, eventually settling on the Grade I United Nations from Monmouth Park, a pair of stakes at Santa Anita and our first time this contest seeing Canterbury Park in Minnesota. All four are on turf, and here I'll do my best to give you identifying likely win prospects in the first three.<br />
<br />I'm likely to pass on the Canterbury race, contingent on weather and my completely lack of familiarity with and interest in that track.<br /><br />
On the PH.com season I'm 6 for 27 with a bankroll of +$75.30 on notional $2 win wagers. That's good for 11th nationally of 2,764 players registered and sixth best among NHC Tour players.<br /><br />
<h3>
Monmouth Park, Race 11: United Nations Stakes, 5:28 p.m.</h3>
<br />
<b>Selection: #1, Bigger Picture (3-1)</b><br />
Alternates: #4, Focus Group (2-1); #2, Channel Cat (7-2)<br />
<br />
The deeper I dug, the less I really loved anyone here, though Bigger Picture with Monmouth's top rider Joe Bravo is very playable. I don't expect to get 3-1, but think 2-1 or 5-2 is realistic and am not about to kick a $6-$7 win mutuel to the curb as others lose a mythical $2 stabbing in a field where chalk should prevail. With about 25% of selections made, Todd Pletcher trainee Channel Cat is 2-1, consistent with what PH editors Scott Carson and Chris Larmey have said on their weekly podcast about players loving that trainer's horses. Granted, the four-year-old has room to grow vs. more-seasoned horses here [e.g. Bigger Picture is 8], but his ceiling thus far has been two overnight stakes victories at so-so tracks. Bravo puts BP in a great stalking position and gets his 14th win in 41 starts.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Santa Anita, Race 6: Snow Chief Stakes, 6:33 p.m.</h3>
<br />
<b>Selection: #5, Carnivorous (12-1)</b><br />Alternates: #4, Irish Heatwave (3-1); #3, Prodigal Son (12-1)<br />
<br />
This isn't a very good race either, and I've got somewhat unusual reasons for backing a 12-to-1 shot who has never run more than 6.5 furlongs let alone Saturday's mile-and-an-eighth distance. The favorite, 5-to-2 Our Silver Oak, isn't worth that price with a 1-for-10 lifetime record, so I'm looking elsewhere. Trainer Jonathan Wong is a monster in Northern California at Golden Gate Fields, but here he's going up against the top SoCal trainers, including three Doug O'Neill runners. Carnivorous is one of 'em. He ran just eight days ago, which gives me <i>some </i>pause, but his two turf tries (second- and third-place finishes vs. $80,000 open claimers; <i>most of Saturday's foes ran exclusively vs. state-bred horses</i>) showed a liking of the grass, and I <i>love </i>sprinters going first time two turns who've shown tactical ability. Abel Cedillo rides, coming down from Golden Gate and a really good turf rider there, plus 30% in 57 starts on grass. If Cedillo can get him to settle behind apparent speed-and-fade types, I think Carnivorous -- with a 4 lb. weight break since last time -- can be first one across the finish line as the others gasp for air and flatten out. The 19-to-1 odds on PH.com as of about 11 p.m. ET on Friday are silly. Well worth the shot.<br />
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<h3>
Santa Anita, Race 8: Wilshire Stakes, 7:36 p.m.</h3>
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<b>Selection: #1, Ollie's Candy (5-1)</b><br />
Alternates: #3, Simply Breathless (6-1); #4, Poster Girl (12-1)<br />
<br />
It's quite possible Ollie's Candy routs this crew. This isn't a good field. Most of the horses in posts 6-11 aren't playable for me, including co-third choice #11 Tapped, as 6-to-1 is <i>way </i>too short for a five-year-old with two lifetime wins, both on dirt, and that last won in January 2017. Completely not my cup of tea. On the other hand, Ollie's Candy is a four-year-old making her second start this year after a seventh-place (of eight) finish in the Grade 1 Gamely on May 27, a race where replay confirms the jockey hand-rode the horse about the entire race, let her get into a stride before she made up incremental ground very late in the stretch and galloped out well past the other runners, including the powerful Vasilika, who's the gold standard in California. Two bullet works since that race indicates Ollie's Candy's ready to fire, with rider Kent Desormeaux riding a fresh and talented horse who's cutting back in distance and I sense is completely fit. Amazing she's 5-to-1; would be a <i>steal </i>at that price, akin to free money.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Canterbury Park, Race 6: Mystic Lake Mile, 8:52 p.m</h3>
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As of Friday evening, I'm passing on this race. Too many variables -- a track I never play, 14 horses entered and chance of showers and thunderstorms that could take the race off turf.Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-85616856390158283832019-06-14T15:48:00.001-04:002019-06-16T07:58:43.155-04:00Key Weekend Stakes Picks[<i><b>Updated Sunday morning with results; Green indicates winner on $2 win mutuel payout</b></i>]<br />
<br />
Despite the chance of jinxing myself for the rest of 2019's <a href="http://www.publichandicapper.com/index.html" target="_blank">Public Handicapper contest</a>, <i>and in the event a racetrack's searching for a racing analyst with a self-effacing style</i>, I'm going to make every effort to break down -- for all 8 of my readers -- the top four U.S. races each weekend as determined by the <a href="http://www.publichandicapper.com/editors.cfm" target="_blank">PH editors</a>.<br />
<br />
The format's simple -- a notional $2 win bet, hopefully, to inform your handicapping and also in a bid to advance my current 14th-place standing in a contest with over 2,700 players and the top NHC Tour member gets a free berth to the NHC next February in Las Vegas.<br />
<br />
This weekend's plays include three stakes at Churchill Downs and one at Monmouth Park -- an interesting turf sprint where almost half the runners belong to trainer Jason Servis, who has <i>Maximum Security </i>lined up to run on Sunday in his first race back since the Kentucky Derby DQ.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Monmouth Park, Race 10: Honey Bee Stakes, 5 p.m.</h3>
<br />
<b>Selection: #4, Eyeinthesky (6-1) -- </b><i>Finished 4th; lost irons at start</i><br />
Alternates: <span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">#3, <a href="https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=MTH&raceDate=06/15/2019&cy=USA&rn=10" target="_blank">A Bit of Both (3-1)</a> -- <i>Paid $5.40</i></span>; #2, Golcanda (<span style="background-color: #ea9999;"><i>scratched</i></span>)<br />
<br />
Nothing deep here. I think A Bit of Both is fastest, setting the pace for two other Jason Servis runners and the rest of the field. Yet I'm not willing to give the win nod, trying turf for the first time. Eyeinthesky gets the dream trip just off Bit's flank, and a repeat of the 5-furlong win at Gulfstream in January is good enough vs. these. Eyeinthesky also has a win at Aqueduct in a $100,000 stake at a slightly longer distance, done on the front end. So I think he's among the more tactical here on a track that plays fast.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Churchill Downs, Race 6: Wise Dan Stakes, Grade II, 8:37 p.m.</h3>
<br />
<b>Selection: #9, Inspector Lynley (6-1) -- </b><i style="background-color: #f4cccc;">Scratched</i><br />
Alternates: #15 (AE), Parlor (10-1) -- <i>4th at 33-1</i>; <span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">#11, <a href="https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=06/15/2019&cy=USA&rn=6" target="_blank">March to the Arch (6-1)</a> -- <i>Paid $23</i></span><br />
<br />
The winner's coming from the outer posts. I think #4, Hot Springs (10-1), will be overbet as a horse who's 4-for-5 at Churchill and who's quick enough to secure a spot behind runaway leaders Siem Riep and Itinthepost -- the latter could be favorite, but I think is using this first race since August as a tuneup for longer and bigger races later this year. I think both can wilt, and Inspector Lynley is good enough -- and reunites with jockey Jose Ortiz -- and ran well vs. Bricks and Mortar in the Muniz at Fairgrounds in March before winning small stakes at Aqueduct in April. His effort in the Dixie on Preakness Day was disappointing vs. Admission Office, who finished a close second to Catholic Boy, but I'm speculating AO's effort was a top one that'll be tough to repeat, and he couldn't catch a horse (a great one, though) who hadn't run in a long time. Lynley grinds out a win here.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Churchill Downs, Race 8: Grade 2 Stephen Foster, 9:47 p.m.</h3>
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<b>Selection: #8, King Zachary (12-1) -- </b><i>10th of 12, stunk up the joint</i><br />
Alternates: <span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">#4, <a href="https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=06/15/2019&cy=USA&rn=8" target="_blank">Seeking the Soul (4-1)</a> -- <i>paid $11.20</i></span>; #3, Runaway Ghost (20-1) -- <i>8th of 12</i><br />
<br />
This race isn't my cup of tea but I think an honest early pace sets up for a stalker-closer type at a mile-and-an-eighth. I don't have pound-the-table conviction about King Zachary, but think he's very playable second time off a long layoff that saw him end 2018 with a bad Pennsylvania Derby in September and a decent fourth in the Travers. This one has punched above his weight, but in his second start as a 4-year-old has found a spot where he can track the speed and hope to make it three wins in five tries on the Churchill oval. His 2019 debut in a $100,000 optional-claimer, going a one-turn mile, may be sufficient enough of a warmup for trainer Graham Motion, who has a slightly positive ROI with horses second time in his barn and gets Javier Castellano.<br />
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<h3>
Churchill Downs, Race 9: Grade 3 Regret Stakes, 10:19 p.m.</h3>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div>
<b>Selection: <span style="background-color: #d9ead3;">#5, <a href="https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=CD&raceDate=06/15/2019&cy=USA&rn=9" target="_blank">Hard Legacy (8-1)</a> -- </span></b><i style="background-color: #d9ead3;">paid $13.80</i></div>
<div>
Alternates: #11, Princess Carolina (4-1) -- <i>8th of 11</i>; #10, Gamblin Train (10-1) -- <i>7th of 11</i></div>
<br />
If trainer Norm Casse and jockey Julien Leparoux see what I see, Hard Legacy will be forwardly placed in an 11-horse field that lacks tempo. It's a bit of pace-handicapping for me here, as I'm less inclined to use tepid favorites Winter Sunset and Varenka, who don't seem particularly fast from the gate and will stalk what I'm anticipating as a dawdling pace.<br />
<br />
Replays of Hard Legacy's last two so-so stakes tries showed a horse wrangled back twice to sit mid-pack, where she looked uncomfortable and was subjected to wide trips, including 5-6 off the rail in the Appalachian at a soft Keeneland in early April. If she inherits the lead and can lope around the backstretch in slow fractions, I think she'll have enough in the tank to hold off the closers. Otherwise, #11, Princesa Carolina, gets a dream stalking trip and scores.<br />
<br />Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-37927944712360542942019-06-08T12:20:00.001-04:002019-06-08T12:20:13.316-04:00Wagers for Belmont Stakes Pick 4 SequenceAllocating a $97 bankroll to the Pick 4 races ending with the 2019 Belmont Stakes, my fortune hinges on three horses <i>not </i>in the third leg of the Triple Crown -- Hog Creek Hustle in the Woody Stephens (Race 8), Coal Front in the Met Mile (Race 9) and Bricks and Mortar in the Manhattan (Race 10).<br /><br />A win by Hog Creek Hustle and I may not care much who wins the Belmont.<br /><br />About two-thirds of my bets are connected to Race 8, a 7-furlong sprint featuring 11 runners in what, to me, looks like a wide open race. Hog Creek Hustle plays prominently, as I think his runner-up finish in the Pat Day Mile -- a race where I made Mr. Money my pick of Kentucky Derby day -- exemplified this horse relishes one-turn races, and I think Mr. Money's going to prove better than today's runners.<br />
<br />
Hog Creek Hustle's connections took a shot at the Kentucky Derby trail, finishing a game and late-running second to Preakness Stakes winner War of Will in the Grade 3 LeComte in mid-January before another similar fourth-place run in the Grade 2 Risen Star. His jockey in those two races (Florent Geroux) is more of a sit-and-pounce type, whereas today the horse reunites with southeastern-based rider Corey Lanerie, who rode him to a pair of two-year-old victories and more forwardly so in last month's second-place Pat Day Mile. To me, the cutback to seven furlongs is perfect, and I'm willing to stake my success this afternoon to #8 Hog Creek Hustle. I'll use him prominently, with #1 Honest Mischief and #11 Wendell Fog in small "saver" tickets.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><i>When talking Hogs on Belmont<br />Day, it starts and ends with our<br />most beloved Hogg</i></b></td></tr>
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Race 9, the Metropolitan Handicap, is the <i>real </i>feature today -- best race on the card, though I'm not as enamored with some of the runners. I think the winner comes from the inside three posts, and I landed on 6-to-1 Coal Front (#1), who isn't the sturdiest horse (been sidelined several times, including a 14-month layoff from Sept. 2017-Nov. 2018), but he's 3-of-3 since, including wins at three distinct distances (7 furlongs, 1 mile and a mile-and-a-sixteenth). I <i>think </i>he's going to hold his morning-line odds, and if he wins he'll spice up multi-race-wager payouts. I'm exclusively playing two Pick 3's starting with this race, one with my stronger picks and the other spreading out a bit more for coverage.<br />
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I'm going back to the well as I did on Derby Day with #8 Bricks and Mortar in the turf feature -- Race 10, the Manhattan. He'll be a single on most of my tickets, with #1 Raging Bull in my savers. The scratch of front-runner Epical is significant, in my opinion, and <i>could </i>entice second-choice, #10 Channel Marker (9-2), to forge to the front and try to win it on the lead and set slow fractions, in essence trying to lull Bricks and Mortar to sleep. Yet that strategy didn't work in the Turf Classic on Derby Day, and I think it won't here on a turf course that should play a bit firm. Bricks and Mortar is a bit of a "free square" in my Pick 3 and 4 tickets, so if he <i>doesn't </i>win many of my bets will be shot.<br />
<br />
Unless I score something nice with my Race 8 daily doubles and trifecta wagers, I'm going light on the Belmont, since Tax is a tepid win selection for me -- the opposite of my bullish sentiment toward Maximum Security in the Kentucky Derby, and my analysis as War of Will as best in the Preakness. I will only play a small exacta and trifecta, and will mainly increase the increment a bit if I score decently on Race 8-10 wagers.<br />
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Good luck to everyone playing this afternoon on what's a gorgeous day for the Belmont Stakes!<br /><br /><b>2019 Belmont Stakes Day Wagers ($97 Bankroll)</b><br />
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<b>Race 8, Woody Stephens Stakes, 7 furlongs on dirt (4:04 p.m. ET post) = $66 Total</b><br />
<br />[Wager with dollar value, selection = total out-of-pocket cost]<br />
$4 daily double: 8 with 1 = $4<br />
$1 daily double: 8 with ALL = $9<br />
$1 daily double: 1 with 1, 2, 3, 9 = $4 (saver ticket)<br />
$1 daily double: 11 with 1, 2, 3 = $3 (saver ticket)<br />
50-cent trifecta: 8 with 1, 11 with 1, 4, 6, 9, 11 = $4<br />
50-cent trifecta: 1, 11 with 8 with 1, 4, 6, 9, 11 = $4<br />
50-cent trifecta: 1, 4, 6, 9, 11 with 1, 4, 6, 9, 11 with 8 = $10<br />
50-cent Pick 4 (my "Hog" single): 8 with 1, 2, 3, 7, 9 with 1, 8 with 4, 6, 9, 10 = $20<br />
50-cent Pick 4 (first saver ticket): 1, 4, 6, 9, 11 with 1 with 8 with 4, 6 = $5<br />
50-cent Pick 4 (second saver): 1 with 1, 2, 3 with 8 with 4, 6 = $3<br />
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<b>Race 9, Metropolitan Handicap, 1 mile on dirt (4:46 p.m. ET post) = $14 Total</b><br />
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$3 Pick 3: 1 with 8 with 4, 6 = $6<br />
$1 Pick 3: 1 with 1, 8 with 4, 6, 9, 10 = $8<br />
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<b>Race 10, Manhattan Stakes, 1.25 mile on turf (5:36 p.m. ET post) = $8 Total</b><br />
<br />
$3 daily double: 8 with 4 = $6<br />
$1 daily double: 8 with 6 = $1<br />
$1 daily double: 1 with 4, 6, 9, 10 = $4<br />
<br />
<b>Race 11, Belmont Stakes, 1.5 mile on dirt (6:37 p.m. ET post) = $9 Total</b><br />
<br />
$1 exacta key box: 4 with 6, 9, 10 = $6<br />
50-cent trifecta: 4 with 6, 9, 10 with 6, 9, 10 = $3Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-87728216241897930572019-06-07T22:42:00.003-04:002019-06-07T22:42:55.623-04:002019 Belmont Stakes Pick: TaxThe Triple Crown season wraps up with a mile-and-a-half race that none of these three-year-olds has experienced and likely won't again, running on the "Big Sandy" in the 2019 Belmont Stakes.<br /><br />The race is completely wide open, in my opinion, and includes a few long-shots with a viable chance of upsetting Preakness winner War of Will (2-to-1 second choice) and favorite Tacitus (9-to-5) -- both perched outside in a field of 10.<br /><br />In a bit of a coinflip scenario, and in the spirit of our tariff-happy president, <b>Tax is my pick to win the Belmont Stakes</b>.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b>"<i>Tax will make you richer<br />than ever before.</i>"</b></td></tr>
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Local trainer Danny Gargan isn't a household name like three-time Belmont Stakes winner Todd Pletcher, who'll saddle two runners and has a legitimate contender in Spinoff, but gets one of the best jockeys in the nation -- Irad Ortiz -- to ride Tax.<br />
<br />
For my money, it's a significant rider switch and one that could pay dividends at 15-to-1 <i>if </i>Ortiz recognizes the value of securing the third or fourth spot down the backstretch and keeping Tax, a grinder type, close to front-runners who'll fade.<br /><br />Speaking of money, I'll post my race-day wagers on Saturday, keeping to the normal $100 limit, in the event you want to circle back for some suggestions. As you know, the Maximum Security cost me a $1,000+ profit in the Derby, and my published Preakness wagers weren't winners, though my pick of the day at Pimlico won pretty easy and I had a $110 profit that afternoon. So I'm about even in Triple Crown races thus far.<br /><br />In the meantime, here's my ranking of the full field of 10 in the 2019 Belmont Stakes. Feel free to comment below or Tweet me <a href="https://twitter.com/NJHorseplayer" target="_blank">@NJHorseplayer</a>.<br />
<ul>
<li><b>#4, Tax (15-1):</b> Toss the Kentucky Derby effort, where he was post-compromised and didn't show much in the slop. I wasn't a fan of him that afternoon, but think he's a potential win contender in the Belmont. Getting jockey Irad Ortiz is a notable benefit, as is a post with slow gate horses to the stalls on either side and cheap speed at the rail. I think he's going to be forwardly-placed and sit off Joevia, probably second or third unless Ortiz finds trouble, and <i>could </i>find himself on the lead at the mile mark, at which point it'll be a question of stamina. I think he's got enough distance pedigree to make it happen. Tax's win in the Grade 3 Withers, where he easily outran Belmont rival Sir Winston, was credible enough to fit here, as he took to the distance, withstood a slight check in the stretch, and gutted it out to the wire. I like grinder types in this race and am not sure we'll get 15-1, but <b style="background-color: #b6d7a8;">will bet as a win contender. NJ Horseplayer selection to win the 2019 Belmont Stakes.</b></li>
<li><b>#6, Spinoff (15-1):</b> This morning line is completely silly. Alright, as expected, Spinoff wasn't a factor in the Kentucky Derby. He got passed late by a 22-to-1 shot in the stretch of the Louisiana Derby and flopped in the Kentucky Derby with a wide post on a sloppy track that perhaps he didn't enjoy. But trainer Todd Pletcher gets top rider Javier Castellano on a horse who'll be toward the lead -- a tactic that works in the Belmont. The Louisiana Derby race was <i>super </i>productive, with War of Will, Sueno and Mr. Money in that field and all going on to big accomplishments. I <i>may </i>use Spinoff on a small ticket in the win spot but absolutely will have him across my tickets underneath. <b style="background-color: orange;">An upset contender who'll at least hit the board.</b> The <i>only </i>drawback in putting him a peg below Tax is the lack of a stakes win (graded and non-graded).</li>
<li><b>#10, Tacitus (9-5):</b> No doubt he'll go off as the favorite, but a hot early pace was a common thread in all of his races and I'm not sure Tacitus will get that in the Belmont. The widest post isn't much of a concern for a runner who'll likely sit midpack into the backstretch and look to make a mid-race move against the leaders. Another common thread is Jose Ortiz's aggressive rides. In his win in the Wood Memorial, Tacitus came in on runner-up Tax quite a bit in the stretch, though without much contact. It was more of a progressive move into Tax's space, steering his opponent tighter to the rail and holding on late. In the Kentucky Derby, he was jostled a bit early -- who isn't in a 20-horse field -- but settled and made a decent move to finish third by DQ, though <i>I </i>think he potentially fouled Master Fencer down the lane, interfering with his path. I think Tacitus is a must use on tickets, but I'm not picking him to win. Wouldn't shock me if he crossed the line first, but at some point, his good fortune -- like the perfect trip in winning the Tampa Bay Derby -- has got to run out.<b style="background-color: orange;"> Using underneath. </b></li>
<li><b>#9, War of Will (2-1):</b> It's hard to knock the only horse who's running in all three Triple Crown races. Will ran a valiant Kentucky Derby and good enough to hit the board if not win, though we all know what happened. Two weeks later he bounced back to win the Preakness at a dismissive 6-to-1, but in the polar opposite fashion of his race at Churchill, <i>everything</i> went Will's way in Baltimore as he won by a length and a quarter. That said, he beat a 64-to-1 shot who I think got lucky that day (Everfast) and won't be a factor here. This guy has guts and will attend to the pace, though I have doubts about his stamina at this point of the campaign, running his sixth grueling race in since Jan. 19 on a racetrack where experience helps. In that light, rider Tyler Gaffalione doesn't have a ton of experience on the big Belmont oval where timing your one big move is everything. <b style="background-color: orange;">I'll play him second through fourth on my tickets and wouldn't be surprised if he wins, but will keep him strictly underneath.</b> </li>
<li><b>#3, Master Fencer (8-1):</b> I sense he'll go off below his morning line and as the third betting choice for those who dwell on the late run he showed in finishing in the top half of the Kentucky Derby field. One could argue he ran a better race than Belmont favorite Tacitus as it looked to me that he was bumped off stride a little as the latter one bumped him outward mid-stretch. It was a very credible race, so five weeks away from the track should help this Japanese import. The biggest questions for me are whether he'll try coming from the clouds again -- generally not a favorable Belmont proposition -- and if he's classy enough, sinning two races against weaker foes and getting into the Kentucky Derby by default when the winner of the win-and-your-in race in Japan wasn't Triple Crown nominated. <b style="background-color: orange;">I'll consider using him primarily at the bottom of my trifecta, and <i>maybe </i>the second spot of exacta bets.</b></li>
<li><b>#5 Bourbon War (12-1):</b> As predicted, a wise-guy horse in the Preakness who showed little and in somewhat of a sign of desperation was trying blinkers for the first time. Trainer Mark Hennig removes the blinkers for the Belmont and gets Mike Smith, a three-time Belmont winner since 2010, though all those horses were more forwardly placed than what Bourbon War has shown in an unimpressive stakes campaign. Maybe the horse takes to a new jockey, but in my view it's a negative that his rider in the last five (Irad Ortiz) went to Tax.<b style="background-color: red;"> Pass.</b></li>
<li><b>#7 Sir Winston (12-1):</b> At the least this is a similar path for jockey Joel Rosario, who spoiled California Chrome's Triple Crown bid in 2014 aboard Tonalist, who came out of the Peter Pan Stakes much as Sir Winston does this year. The difference is that Winston's tactically disadvantaged as a deep closer, which to me won't work other than potentially hitting the bottom of the board. Winston's three-year-old campaign has been far from impressive, with several off-the-board finishes in three Derby preps before an also-ran second in the Peter Pan, a 5-horse field that wasn't so good. I just don't see it happening for a horse whose two wins were at age two at Woodbine in Toronto. <b style="background-color: red;">Pass.</b></li>
<li><b>#8, Intrepid Heart (10-1):</b> The other Pletcher runner comes in off a so-so third (of just five runners) in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes and is lightly raced. I'm not a fan of trainers making equipment changes in Grade 1 races. The addition of blinkers and addition of rider John Velazquez tells me he's likely to challenge War of Will for a better lead position into the first turn and could serve as a rabbit for Spinoff. If nothing else he'll be in it for a mile before fading. <b style="background-color: red;">Pass.</b></li>
<li><b>#2, Everfast (12-1): </b>I'm still a little sore over the Preakness Stakes outcome, where Joel Rosario settled his horse 18 lengths off winner War of Will in the backstretch before ambling home for a surprise second-place finish at 29-to-1. Yet if you watch the replay, this horse was never catching War of Will and, to me, got lucky. That and the Grade 2 Holy Bull effort are the only races that fit the profile of a horse that can hit the board in the Belmont, and for a horse that has never shown early speed I don't think the rider switch to Luis Saez helps. <b style="background-color: red;">Pass.</b></li>
<li><b>#1, Joevia (30-1):</b> This one's prep was a win in ungraded stakes at Monmouth Park vs. 3 others, including a runner that broke down before the stretch. That and his speed-and-fade in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial in April, won by Tacitus, tells me he'll be the rabbit for about three-quarters of a mile before bringing up the rear. Or, based on two wins on a wet track, connections will be doing a rain dance until the race is run. <b style="background-color: red;">Pass. </b></li>
</ul>
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<br />Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-57755231584373496502019-05-17T20:08:00.001-04:002019-05-17T20:08:38.626-04:002019 Preakness Stakes Pick: Laughing FoxAfter the Kentucky Derby stewards disqualified me out of cashing about a $1,300 profit two weeks ago, I'm hoping that my handicapping will be as strong and my fate much better for Preakness Day, where below I offer guidance on the late-Pick 4 sequence that culminates in <b>Laughing Fox winning the second leg of the Triple Crown</b>.<br /><div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4pNoFl5ZbfTJGP2nG4EWPqagpPmewRoJJW1hVc9xAZ6XVDXbJq2ERWeEHhX9R1uWdCJy6QVaIaCW_caX-zIZUCyO8jHCPObG2QowW_F-BXeiiJez3Nbikxctmbw7WofyLkzIUwUW-Iw/s1600/Fox+Laughing.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4pNoFl5ZbfTJGP2nG4EWPqagpPmewRoJJW1hVc9xAZ6XVDXbJq2ERWeEHhX9R1uWdCJy6QVaIaCW_caX-zIZUCyO8jHCPObG2QowW_F-BXeiiJez3Nbikxctmbw7WofyLkzIUwUW-Iw/s1600/Fox+Laughing.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><i>May the horse laugh like a fox while passing<br />all others in the Preakness, while I laugh passing<br />all others to cash big tickets at the windows.</i></b></td></tr>
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The full horse-by-horse analysis is available in Wednesday's post, though my confidence in this 20-to-1 shot vs. two days ago is on the rise, after reconsidering my initial assessment that I'd have rather had an inside draw rather than post 11. </div>
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In rewatching the horse's effort in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in mid-March, it was clear to me that being squeezed at the start, having to check in the final turn and looking somewhat uncomfortable on the rail suggests he'd rather sit wider off the fast early pace on Saturday, and jockey Ricardo Santana can let him relax before a big mid-race move before <i>hopefully </i>lumbering home at a big price.<br /><br />My selections below key him in the first and second spots of the exacta and trifecta, and on the back end of daily double and Pick 4 selections. I'm also alive to a $142 payout on the Blackeyed Susan and Preakness double; so if Laughing Fox pulls it off, it should be a highly profitable day. </div>
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The bankroll here is slightly less than $100 that I typically assign for the Triple Crown races, but if you're attending Monmouth Park or betting off track and have 20 bucks to burn, I'd say make a $2 win-place-show wager on #11 and consider the $1 "exacta-key box" -- ticket below (a $14 play). Regarding the latter, Laughing Fox would have to finish 1st or 2nd with any of 7 horses.</div>
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<b>My play of the day is #4, Mitchell Road, in Race 10</b>, the Gallorette Stakes. I think he'll take the field wire-to-wire, <b>and am also bullish on #6 Gladiator King in Race 11</b>, the Grade 3 Chick Lang, also in front-running fashion. Without further adieu, my Preakness Day late-Pick 4 sequence plays...<br /><br /><b>Race 10 (Gallorette Stakes): $25 Total</b></div>
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<ul>
<li>50-cent Pick 4: 4 with 6, 7, 8 with 3, 5, 11, 12 with 1, 11 = $12</li>
<li>$5 daily double: 4 with 6 = $5</li>
<li>$2 daily double: 4 with 7, 8 = $4</li>
<li>$1 daily double: 4 with 3 = $1</li>
<li>$1 daily double: 2, 3, 9 with 6 = $3</li>
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<b>Race 11 (Chick Lang Stakes): $13 Total</b></div>
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<li>$1 trifecta key: 6 over 7, 8 over 1, 3, 5, 7, 8 = $8</li>
<li>$3 daily double: 6 with 3 = $3</li>
<li>$1 daily double 7,8 with 3 = $2</li>
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<b>Race 12 (Dixie Stakes): $14 Total</b></div>
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<ul>
<li>$3 daily double: 3 with 11 = $3</li>
<li>$2 daily double: 3 with 1 = $2</li>
<li>$1 daily double: 3 with 1, 4, 5, 7, 12, 13 = $6</li>
<li>$1 daily double: 5, 11, 12 with 11 = $3</li>
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<b>Race 13 (Preakness Stakes): $44 Total</b></div>
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<ul>
<li>$1 exacta key box: 11 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 12, 13 = $14</li>
<li>50-cent trifecta: 1, 11 over 1, 4, 7, 11 over 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13 = $18</li>
<li>50-cent trifecta: 4, 7 over 1, 11 over 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13 = $12</li>
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Bill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.com0