So Happy About the 2026 Kentucky Derby

The last Kentucky Derby winner I picked was Maximum Security in 2019.

Alright, he was disqualified after crossing the wire first after a suspect stewards decision, but the moral of the story is to take mine and most peoples' picks with a grain of salt. It's a grueling race to handicap and a one-off with as many as 20 entrants.

Anything can happen in an enormous field, and this year I've avoided going down the rabbit hole of excessive handicapping beyond watching select Kentucky Derby prep replays and narrowing down to some horses capable of finishing in the top three in Saturday's Run for the Roses and reasons why you should consider them in your wagers, ranked in order of preference.

Two potential winners ("A" horses)

#8, So Happy (15-1): Versatility will do this Mark Glatt trainee well. Wins at three distances in four lifetime starts and in different pace scenarios, from blazing to dawdling. Mike Smith has been aboard all four starts and his only loss was his first try at two turns, yielding late but finishing third. I sense he'll be near the pace and view two-time Derby winner "Money Mike" as an asset. If nothing else, I'll be rooting hard for Glatt, whose wife died abruptly in February at 57 due to heart failure. In this environment, we could all use a feel-good story.

 #6, Commandment (6-1): "Experts" are high on Bill Mott trainee Chief Wallabee (see below) but that's recency bias after the Mott-Junior Alvarado 2025 Derby victory. Commandment is better and beat Wallabee head-to-head 2x, including in the Fountain of Youth (FOY) and Florida Derby. Commandment looks like the perfect stalker who can grind out a win and not have to be right on the pace. Lots of fight in this one. Sense he'll hold his 6-1 morning line, which is great value. The knock is that jockey Luis Saez has yet to ride Commandment, as previous winning jockeys Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat went to other horses. No matter. Saez is world-class and this is a gutsy runner. The knock may be that you have to go back to 2013 to find the last FOY-Florida Derby winner dressed in roses (Orb).

Second Tier ("B" horses - some things need to go their way)

#11, Incredibolt (20-1): Very hit or miss. Two stylish come-from-behind stakes wins in the Street Sense and Virginia Derby in mid-March. Granted, fields were soft, but his late kick is eye-catching. Riley Mott may have the horse on the rise here for his Derby training debut whereas pops, Bill, has a game horse (Chief Wallabee) that only boasts a maiden victory but will draw a lot of wagering. 

#15, Emerging Market (15-1): I'll hate myself, again, after the race ends in giving another promising Chad Brown horse a serious Derby look, but this one can hit the board. Only his third lifetime start after debut maiden win in Tampa, followed by Grade 2 Louisiana Derby win in mid-March. The downside is he outlasted a competitor there that's 30-1 on Saturday and may be closer to 40-1, but Prat stays aboard and appeared to be restraining EM in the early stages before letting lose late to prevail by a head. It's also hard to discount using America's best jockey somewhere on the ticket.

Third Tier ("C" horses - a lot of things need to go their way)

#1, Renegade (4-1): Morning line favorite, which is insane no matter the quality. Rail horses do not and will not win the Derby in the existing 20-horse configuration. Rail horses get a little more relief than in the past, but Renegade will have a lot to contend with to make the first turn in one piece. That said, the Irad Ortiz-Todd Pletcher jockey-trainer combo is nothing to sneeze at and they've demolished good fields in prepping for the Derby. I'd like him more with a better draw, and were the speed figures better. So you can have him at 4-1, or 5-1, or 10-1. Not my cup of tea on the win end. Maybe underneath.

#12, Chief Wallabee (8-1): I'm using him at the bottom of my trifecta and see third as ceiling. Maybe adding blinkers on Saturday is the winning recipe, but I'm not a huge fan of horses unable (to this point) to outduel foes in the stretch. It happened twice here, which is cause for concern, though like others I respect the connections. Think Alydar. 

NJ Horseplayer's Ill-Fated Trifecta Ticket

Perhaps I'd serve society better making a $12 donation to charity but here's my structure, consistent with the above ABC analysis: 6, 8 with 6, 8, 11, 15 with 1, 6, 8, 11, 12, 15.

Caveat emptor as the legendary Mike Brady once advised his son Greg.

[#20, Fulleffort, removed from Third Tier after scratch on Thursday afternoon and #5, Right to Party, removed after scratch on Friday.]

NHC 26: A Few Lengths from the Money

There's no glory in finishing 461st of 828 in NHC26, but several positive takeaways from my fifth NHC effort. 

The trip started horribly, with a TSA sick-out prompting jetBlue flight cancellation from Newark six hours before takeoff, a miraculous shift to JFK, delays, and 3:30 a.m. hotel arrival. 

I barely slept, considering the travel after-effects, contest anticipation, and 9 a.m. start to NHC26, and it showed on Day 1. 

I banked a mere $23.80 on a chalky Friday where half of winners in my 16 races (6 mandatory, 10 optional) were post-time favorites at average odds of 1.6-to-1, but wasn't dejected only $55 off the 83rd-place goal for Sunday-championship qualification and as I somehow maintained strategic focus of targeting vulnerable favorites while avoiding action-oriented impulse plays. 

* Denotes mandatory; first 6 races

Saturday was far better, with 8.2-to-1 and 10.7-to-1 winners in two of the eight mandatories, a 9-1 place, and five near-miss thirds including three cap types that simply didn't go my way. I might have been a Sunday qualifier with a bit more luck in two of these. Here's the replay evidence.

Aqueduct, Race 3, #6 Unbridled Bomber (18.06-to-1): The two longest shots in a sketchy 6-horse field made sense; just went the wrong way as Centavo was closer to the pace to score at 17.75-to-1 and my pick missed second by a neck, costing at least $10 of place money.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 5, #10 Radar Loop (19.5-to-1): A gut punch. Great stalking trip and had enough to win but squeezed badly in the stretch by the top two and lost all action before edged for third. There was a lengthy inquiry (stewards' notes lend little to this) and I believe grounds from the head-on of a double DQ had Radar Loop held for third. I was disappointed but not waylaid.  

Aqueduct, Race 7, #5 Blue Forty Two (21.25-to-1): No qualms, just too belated an effort and the favorite won at 0.67-to-1. Contest players love big fields, but I cite this and AQ3 above as opportunities to beat short-priced favorites in small fields, which should lend well to cleaner trips in optional races where the majority of contestants may be inclined to take a pass.   

Santa Anita Park, Race 3, #2 Quereme Pass (9-to-1): Not much to say. Second best. Great trip, nose beat. Missed opportunity for $20+ of win money.

Colonial Downs, Race 10, #5 Sharp Tones (28.3-to-1): On the flipside of the above "clean trips in short fields" logic, Joe Rocco's ride was abysmal. This one still gets under my skin. A YouTube replay wasn't available, but here's one from Bloodhorse. Rocco easily cost the three lengths needed to win by inexplicably running up on heels in the first furlong then completely losing patience top of the stretch with an erratic wide move. A sound optional play but a clearly unfavorable trip.

Gulfstream Park, Race 12, #10 Coco Abarrio (15.1-to-1): The top two finishers of 10 were 18-to-1 and 33-to-1, so my logic was correct. No qualms with performance but missed decent place money in this wide-option optional contest race. (Spanish-language replay.)

Santa Anita Park, Race 7, #10 Centrodelantero (4.4-to-1): One of the later races and a 9-horse field but sitting on a few late bullets, I made this more logical play in the seventh of eight Day 2 mandatories. Great trip, got the lead 2x in stretch but a nose-beat third in a 3-horse photo. The potential $16-$18 of bankroll would have positioned me to play less of a reach in my final two picks instead of 38-to-1 and 46-to-1.

The outcomes stunk, but on a patient handicapping front, I was satisfied with my Saturday effort, identifying several opportunities to strike with less popular selections. I believe it's key to contest success, no matter the format.

The table below shows the average odds of my Saturday selections was far higher than Friday's, yet several were in contention, and surely enough where my outcome could have been different with some racing luck. Only 25% of winners in my 20 Saturday races were favorites vs. 50% on Friday, so I mapped out appropriate opportunities.

* Denotes mandatory; first 8 races

NHC26 proved to be my best finish, sadly, but continued progress from NHC25. I'll continue to consider live-money tournaments at Monmouth Park and maybe Laurel Park, but target the bigger Horse Tourneys tournaments before online NHC events despite their slightly lower-cost entry points. 

The NHC is always a great time and it's gratifying to qualify for such a tremendous test, but with the prize pool flattening and players' gifts deteriorating (e.g., from a $100 casino chip per qualifier and open bar to a cheapo backpack) by the year, I envision no change in my bankroll to make it to NHC27.