tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post5474551724372690825..comments2023-06-19T09:26:26.664-04:00Comments on NJ HORSEPLAYER: Not Yet Ready for PrimetimeBill Holobowskihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-56452519955192716122011-10-08T09:48:41.590-04:002011-10-08T09:48:41.590-04:00Paul, I'm not sure you're reading today, b...Paul, I'm not sure you're reading today, but I'm going with Dance & Dance today in the Shadwell Turf Mile. Looks like a nice M/L @ 8-1.Bill Holobowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-39797564264192867232011-09-29T13:03:41.709-04:002011-09-29T13:03:41.709-04:00Paul, excellent call on Dance and Dance in the Woo...Paul, excellent call on Dance and Dance in the Woodbine Mile. Certainly worth watching if indeed the horse stays here for the BC Mile. I attempted unsuccessfully to download of few of his UK races but may try again later on if the BC scenario works out.Bill Holobowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-40493914297523769292011-09-23T15:41:44.614-04:002011-09-23T15:41:44.614-04:00To relive my agony, I just watched the replay and ...To relive my agony, I just watched the replay and I change my mind on who the best horse was in that race. Take a look at the trip of the #11 Dance and Dance. Perfect example of a horrendous trip: broke slowly (spotted the field 2 lengths), moved into contention turning for home behind a wall of horses and never was allowed to run. He appeared to be full of run and was constrained the whole length of the stretch while only being beaten a couple of lengths. <br /><br />Who knows where he'll reappear next, but in my opinion he should have won that race. I hope he stays in this country and runs in a prep for the BC Mile because I surely will take notice.Paul K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/17272364236562881119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-24681975803312580562011-09-23T15:30:27.949-04:002011-09-23T15:30:27.949-04:00Bill, yeah I know hindsight is 20-20 but still.. ...Bill, yeah I know hindsight is 20-20 but still.. <br /><br />Good picks with both Right One and Riding the River as they both looked like winners in deep stretch (at least it was an exciting finish from your perspective). I on the other hand, had to watch in horror as Turallure flew by them all late to win, meanwhile, I was secretly hoping Courageous Cat would win (so I wouldn't feel so bad). I was intially hopeful as Kara's Orientation took an easy lead in the opening quarter but then knew my chances were slim when P. Val and CC made an early challenge for the lead (which in retrospect probably cost him the race). <br /><br />I actually think CC ran the best race as he put away the early speed horse and then held off all challengers in the stretch except for Turallure who he didn't see on the far outside, and all this off a couple month layoff. I hope he gets one more prep before the BC Mile as I think he has a huge shot in that race, plus I love horses making their 3rd start off a layoff (favorite betting angle).<br /><br />Nope, no more live money contests in our area. There use to be several (Delaware, Laurel, and Philly), but I think they aren't associated with the NTRA anymore. I hope that changes in the future as I agree that live money is much more fun!<br /><br />Take care,<br /><br />PaulPaul K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/17272364236562881119noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-56075974061989719342011-09-23T11:56:19.678-04:002011-09-23T11:56:19.678-04:00Paul, glad to hear you've been to NHC; good lu...Paul, glad to hear you've been to NHC; good luck trying to earn a spot in '12, and I do hope to see you there! <br /><br />Tough call, switching on Turallure, but it's always easy to second-guess after the fact. I had Right One before switching to Riding the River, so I'm glad that change didn't cost me in the end. Still, I agree w/your assessment about having to get 10x the starting bankroll. <br /><br />If you know of any live-money contests in the NJ-NY-PA area, keep me posted. I wish Monmouth hosted more contests, but the ownership scenario constrains the seats they can buy to NHC. Maybe in '12 they'll offer more, because the live events are way more fun than online.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />BillBill Holobowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06267163445590752501noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5768887527712554781.post-22386704943049899212011-09-22T16:26:53.335-04:002011-09-22T16:26:53.335-04:00This is a humbling game! I too am trying to quali...This is a humbling game! I too am trying to qualify for NHC 2012 and was there at Monmouth last Sunday. I made it in '08 & '09 and am desperately trying not to strike out for the 3rd year in a row.<br /><br />I prefer the live-money contests at the track over the now more popular and proliferating internet tourneys. My strategy with live money contests is too always bet to Win and not be afraid to pull the trigger on a horse you love (essentially treat your real money bankroll as fake money). It typically takes about 10x the starting bankroll to win or at least qualify in these live money events. So the $830 or so it took to win the MTH-WO tourney was a bit of an anomaly.<br /><br />I was down to my last $90 going into the Woodbine Mile race and had selected Turallure as the winner at home, but unfortunately changed my mind to the #10 at last minute because of his "juicy" odds. My initial plan was to go all in with Turallure, but chickened out and bet $50 to win on the #10. Ouch!! I'm still kicking myself over it.<br /><br />Good luck and hope to see you at the NHC in January!Paul K.https://www.blogger.com/profile/17272364236562881119noreply@blogger.com