I've updated the Kentucky Derby blog below to account for the scratches of Rodriguez and Grande and inclusion of Baeza. More on that below, but here I'll touch on the Oaks (Derby equivalent for 3-year-old fillies) and the four races preceding Saturday's Derby and comprising that Pick 5 sequence.
The Derby Pick 5 is generally a money burner for me but you only live once.
Kentucky Oaks (Friday)
Scheduled for 5:51 p.m. ET, there's no looking past 6-5 favorite Good Cheer.
She's 6-for-6 and has won stylishly and without provocation. If she trades at or above the morning line (at print she was a steal at 7-5), back up the Brink's. I'll single her in Oaks-Derby doubles more prominently with Luxor Cafe (15-1) than Journalism (3-1); so if playing at home, wagers for the double will be 11 (Good Cheer) with 7-8. I'll await the will-pays before determining amounts.
Underneath Good Cheer in exactas-tris-supers, Bob Baffert trainee #9 Tenma (12-1) has faced such grim fields in California preps that it scared me off her as a winner, but she looks promising to hit the board, along with #10 Take Charge Milady (12-1) and #3 Fondly (20-1).
Kentucky Derby Pick 5 Sequence
Back to Saturday's action, the Derby undercard from races 8-11 is difficult and clearly I've not learned that nickle-and-dimers can't take down a share of what'll be an enormous pot. Yet like the cabinet in my house that's stocked with fine bourbons (between keystrokes, sipping Eagle Rare in a 1976 Kentucky Derby mint julep glass), it's sometimes hard to resist donating $20-$30 to the pool.
Here's a brief on each Pick 5 race and my picks, which I'll use more in win and exacta wagers.
Race 8, Churchill Downs Stakes, 3:23 p.m.: #7 Mindframe (3-1) looked unchallenged winning the GP Mile in early March off an 8-month hiatus from close seconds in the 2024 Haskell and Belmont, both of which he lost to Dornach. This is a serious horse who is at the right distance on Saturday (seven-eighths of a mile). Looks to me like a one-turn horse and he's tactical enough to win from the front, middle or rear. #6 Extra Anejo (12-1) rounds out my exacta; ran game fourth in the Haskell and in his 5-year-old debut won the 7-furlong Grade 3 Commonwealth, a good prep for Saturday.
Race 9, American Turf, 4:06 p.m.: The field's too deep (14 go to post) for any horse to get 3-1 favoritism as the oddsmaker has set #3 New Century, especially in a race somewhat devoid of early speed. As a result, I'm giving the edge to #8 Charlie's to Blame (8-1) as winner. Last race is a complete toss; connections took a turf specialist into a Derby prep where he didn't belong and on Saturday returns to a more logically and realistic surface and distance. This guy sports a nice wire-to-wire win in the Kitten's Joy in February and I believe can do the same here. I'll put #5 Test Score (10-1) underneath as there's nothing to dislike about his form and connections.
Race 10, Derby City Distaff, 4:50 p.m.: Another deep field of 14. Anticipating a pace meltdown in this seven-eighths affair, #11 Positano Sunset (12-1) has appeal for a prominent win wager. You have to look five races back in her past performances to find a second-place finish to Zeitlos, which provides a great "company line" to back this one. She comes off two come-from-behind wins, including the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland in April, and won that one at 14-1. I anticipate people will dismiss her again, setting up for potentially good value. I'm inclined to play her in an exacta box with #7 Vahva (6-1), who's 4-for-4 on this track and tried the deepest of waters in last year's Breeders Cup (8th in the Filly and Mare Turf Sprint), and #2 Kopion (8-1), a West Coast speedster boasting wins at grades 1-3.
Race 11, Turf Classic, 5:39 p.m.: Tepid on the field in general after my potential best bet of Saturday (#11 Brilliant Berti) opted for (and won, at 9-5) Thursday's $350k Opening Verse Stakes. I'll take a (big) flyer on #8 Cameo Performance (20-1) over #10 Spirit of St Louis (9-2). Now, both of these guys lost on March 22 in the Grade 2 Muniz at Fairgrounds to an 86-1 bomber but Cameo was running for the first time in seven months off a decent 3-year-old campaign and was a beaten third by only three-quarters of a length. I like that he made up ground in a fairly paceless race and feel he can compete on Saturday. Also note that jockey Luis Saez and trainer Brendan Walsh are 4-for-7 in the last 60 days with a +4.11 ROI, so in a field that's middling by Grade 1 standards, it's worth a shot. Spirit of St Louis, for the less informed, is a cool sort as a NY bred that has already banked $1.2 million and is 10-for-15 lifetime.
Race 12, Kentucky Derby, 6:57 p.m.: This one's largely about in-race wagering for me (will share Derby-specific wagers by Saturday morning) and so I'll keep to my top two selections for Pick 5 purposes - #7 Luxor Cafe (15-1) and #8 Journalism (3-1).
NJ Horseplayer's Annual 50-Cent Pick 5 Donation (top picks in bold): 6, 7 with 5, 8 with 2, 7, 11 with 8, 10 with 7, 8 = $24 total.
