Saturday Derby Wagers, Final Thoughts

If you've yet to tune into Derby Day coverage, Churchill Downs is listed as sloppy (dirt) and good (turf), and with more rain in the forecast, the maintenance team will do its best to keep the 2025 Kentucky Derby from quagmire conditions by sealing the track.

Due to wet surfaces and also with a $335 payout on my $10 Oaks-Derby daily double wager to Luxor Cafe if he wins, I've altered my bankroll allocation toward more bullish thoughts on the undercard and am unlikely to bet Luxor Cafe to win but endorse him as my top pick.  

You'll notice a few exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers specific to the Derby and I'll try to score on two key opinions (#7 Mindframe at 3-1 in race 8 and #8 Cameo Performance at 20-1 in race 11). If playing the earlier races, I'd endorse win-place-show wagers on these, especially Cameo.

Here's what I remain alive to from yesterday:

• $10 Oaks-Derby daily double 11 with 7 (will pay $334.90) = $10
• $1 Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby pick 3: 11 with 8 10 with 7 8 = $4 (will pay TBD)
• Will be out of Oaks-Derby pick 6 unless it pays 5 out of 6: 2 with 11 with 7 with 3 5 with 8 10 with 7 8 = $8

Saturday wagers totaling $107:

• Race 8: $5 exacta - 7 with 6, 8 = $10
• Race 8: $1 pick 3 - 7 with 2 3 5 7 13 with 11 = $5
• Race 8: $0.50 pick 5 - 6 7 8 with 3 5 with 7 8 11 with 8 10 with 7 8 = $36
• Added #8 Hoist the Gold (20-1) in race 8 considering wet track and early pace
• Bummed that #8 Charlie's to Blame scratched from race 9; using #3 New Century (3-1) in that leg as a substitute
• Swapped #8 as third horse for #2 Kopion in race 10, hopefully doesn't bite me later
• Race 9: pass
• Race 10: $2 exacta key box 11 with 7 8 = $8
• Race 11: $1 daily double 8 with ALL = $19
• Bullish on Cameo Performance as big longshot but with scratches in that race speculate I'll get better value if he wins and I catch a big price in the Derby
• Race 12: $0.50 trifecta - 7 8 with 7 8 16 with 3 7 8 9 13 16 17 18 21 = $14
• Race 12: $1 exacta - 3 8 16 17 21 with 7 = $5
• Backup play of ones I like and could beat Luxor Cafe, with my preferred horse finishing second; alive to a nice score in the payout leg of Oaks-Derby double, there's no point in me betting Luxor Cafe to win, especially with odds down to 9-1 at this point
• Race 12: $1 superfecta - 8 with 7 16 with 7 16 17 with 3 13 17 = $10
• Lottery-type wager using Journalism first; another backup type flyer with Luxor Cafe second and third