It's been some time since I've shared thoughts on horse racing.
Yet with a challenge from a few friends on the National Handicapping Championship circuit to re-engage with my enormous audience, now's as good a time as any to shake off the rust.
I'm starting with my annual analysis of the Kentucky Derby field.
I watched just about every prep race replay on each of the 20 (+1) runners expected to break from the starting gate when the spring latches just before 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 3, and have analyzed PPs in unison. Please enjoy what's to follow and feel free to use if playing, or to poke fun at me.
I'll update the blog later this week once settled on my selections and handicapped the Pick 5 sequence + Friday's Kentucky Oaks (for Oaks-Derby doubles), but as of 1:40 a.m. ET on the final day of April lean toward Luxor Cafe over Journalism as my win selection. Perhaps it's the late hour, but something tells me the annual hype for Japanese shippers is real in 2025. We'll see.
Top four
7. Luxor Cafe (15-1): Serious win contender. This horse is based in Japan but is a 3-year-old son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and was bred in Kentucky. I don't follow Japanese racing but Luxor Cafe's 5-length win in the Fukuryu Stakes in March was as stylish as any you'll see, stalking from midpack and pouncing on the competition with little prompting. Brazilian jockey Joao Moreira makes his maiden Derby start but gets a favorable post for midpack start and strong finish if the horse is good enough.
8. Journalism (3-1): Deserving favorite and ships from California after winning three straight stakes, but has he been tested? Needed to beat only four foes in each of those races and has gaudy Brisnet speed figures, but visually seems to need more constant reminders to get going than Luxor Cafe and perhaps finds himself having too much to do late in a 20-horse Derby field. I think he hits the board and is a win contender, but morning line is too short for my liking; even 7-2 would be more enticing. Using, though.
16. Coal Battle (30-1): Perhaps the feel-good story of the 2025 Derby. Obscure connections, $70,000 horse out of a sire with a mere $2,000 stud fee, and has looked completely classy in his preps, with five wins including the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes and stylish stakes victories in the Smarty Jones, Springboard Mile, and Jean Lafitte (the latter two at casino tracks). Ran the final sixteenth of a mile in the Rebel in a rapid 6.1 seconds and showed another gear. Tactical (has won wire-to-wire and off the pace) and is regularly ridden by little-known Juan Vargas. Should get a clean break with horses of zero gate speed in posts 13-15 and 17-18 and I think will be fun to watch. Not sure he wins but will hit the board and spice up the exacta thru superfecta. Keen to watch this guy the rest of this season. Hard knocker.
17. Sandman (6-1): Juxtapose this $1.2 million OBS purchase with Coal Battle and it's what makes thoroughbred racing so great. Everyone has a chance. After eating Coal Battle's dust with a late third-place run in the Rebel, Sandman got revenge and the jump on his nemesis in the March 29 Arkansas Derby to win by 2+ lengths. The pace was hot in both but I'm not sure will be blistering in the Derby, and Sandman has zero speed from the gate, which is why I put him (tactically) beneath basement bargain Coal Battle. Sandman's in my top four. Can win, but closers tend not to win the Derby.
Useful in exacta, trifecta, and superfecta
18. Sovereignty (5-1): Yet another closer type with limited early speed and that does his best running late. Have to respect this Bill Mott trainee and the return of regular rider Junior Alvarado. Truth be told, however, I've never had success betting these connections and so I'll keep among the options to round out the exacta. Most stylish win was as a two-year-old in the Street Sense in late October; blew by the competition, including Sandman, who finished third. Yet I think Sovereignty's two preps in Florida had subpar competition, which is why I downgrade a touch in my Derby preferences.
3. Final Gambit (30-1): Deep closer that merits a look. May be last from the gate, but that's OK in light of the inner post and considering he got bumped hard at the start of his last race (Grade 3 Ruby), settled, and started gaining steam late before running away by three-plus lengths. Brad Cox trainee and is probably meant for grass based on his debut in November at Churchill Downs. Trying dirt for the first time is a concern, but I'm inclined to use underneath at big odds.
21. Baeza (AE; 12-1): Enters the starting gate after Rodriguez was scratched on Thursday and is worth a look as an early pacesetter. Almost beat morning line favorite Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and was a super-game second. Odds reflect he's better than many runners that earned enough points to make the field. Serious pedigree and listed jockey is Flavien Prat, who's a significant get for Baeza. Prat departs Neoequos for this mount.
9. Burnham Square (12-1): True grinder who has done his best running late. Connections gambled on debut, entering this guy into a $150k maiden claimer in October (you, me, or anyone else could have put up the money to buy this Derby runner), and suspect they'll roll the dice on a pace meltdown early and picking up the pieces late. Inclined to keep below the cut line considering perceived lack of quality fields in Derby preps. See as top half finisher but not a win contender.
1. Citizen Bull (20-1): Peaked at the right time, winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile last November at nearly 16-1 on home surface and won 3-year-old debut in February impressively at a mile, but feels more like a Belmont Stakes horse (in a typical year). Isn't sprinter fast but prefers the lead and seems willing to run all day. Rail is the absolute worst draw in the Derby as reflected in the odds but he's useful at the bottom of tri and super plays if he can break cleanly, ride the rail, and not get jostled.
13. Publisher (30-1): Normally, I'd completely dismiss a horse with zero lifetime victories. Yet this maiden has Derby distance pedigree (son of American Pharoah), improved in his past two (second in the Arkansas Derby, fourth in the Rebel), and great connections between Steve Asmussen (most wins ever by North American trainer) and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. No apparent speed but deep closer who perhaps finds the finish line before the faders to round out a trifecta or superfecta. Passing as a win prospect as the Derby's a lot to ask of an 0-for-7 horse.
Take a pass (or use if your favorite name, number, or saddle color)
6. Admire Daytona (30-1): Courageous win in three-horse stretch battle in Dubai stakes on April 5 to get into the Derby starting gate but I'll write this one off as a win contender. Has lost 2x head-to-head to fellow Japanese entrant Luxor Cafe but I have concerns on pedigree and have never put much credence in Dubai winners. Pass.
14. Tiztastic (20-1): The "other" Asmussen. Louisiana Derby win from far off the pace looks like an outlier. First two wins were as a 2-year-old on grass at the elite Kentucky Downs fall meet, which is how this horse has banked $1.5 million already, most in the field. Put below Publisher, who likely has more upside as a dirt distance runner and beat Tiztastic to the finish by almost 3 lengths in the Rebel.
12. East Avenue (20-1): Precocious sort who crushed the field in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland in October but has regressed speed-wise since a bad stumble in November's Breeders Cup Juvenile. Tough nose loss to Burnham Square after being rushed to the lead in the Bluegrass but sense field was weak and he's exhausted. He'll rush to the lead. Eager to see how long he lasts there.
20. Owen Almighty (30-1): Maybe draws a lot of Sunday collection money from the clergy but true longshot who'll sprint toward the lead and likely get strung wide before fading halfway around. Tampa Bay Derby win was vs. a small field for that particular race (just 7 runners), followed with a weak effort in the Bluegrass. Horses from that prep never really seem to factor from what I recall. Pass.
2. Neoequos (30-1): Florida-bred without a stakes win is a reach. Flavien Prat leaves this one for Baeza and is replaced by Luis Saez, who I assume will rush this sprinter to the lead and hope for a miracle.
5. American Promise (30-1): It would be amazing if 89-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas wins, but I don't see it here off a quirky one-turn Virginia Derby that was a bad field. AP is 0-for-2 at long odds in graded stakes tries (VA wasn't) and shows a preference to be on the lead; so maybe you'll hear his name early mix but doubtful late. Pass.
19. Chunk of Gold (30-1): Gold prices are through the roof on account of our Grifter in Chief but Goldy's 0-for-3 in stakes races and a tough post. Here by virtue of second-place finishes in two Grade 2s (Louisiana Derby and Risen Star at Fairgrounds) but faded late in both. Only win was on synthetic surface. Should be longer than 30-1. Go long white metal gold, short Chunk of Gold on Saturday.
11. Flying Mohawk (30-1): Surprised the oddsmaker didn't make him 50-1. Clearly a turf horse who earned Derby spot via 2nd-place Ruby finish but looked like he was standing still when passed late by Final Gambit. Little to suggest he'll hit the board. Oh, taking blinkers off . Equipment change? Pass.
15. Render Judgment (30-1): Eight lengths off Virginia Derby winner American Promise is the best he has done outside of maiden victory in late 2024. Seems well overmatched.
