Alright, he was disqualified after crossing the wire first after a suspect stewards decision, but the moral of the story is to take mine and most peoples' picks with a grain of salt. It's a grueling race to handicap and a one-off with as many as 20 entrants.
Anything can happen in an enormous field, and this year I've avoided going down the rabbit hole of excessive handicapping beyond watching select Kentucky Derby prep replays and narrowing down to some horses capable of finishing in the top three in Saturday's Run for the Roses and reasons why you should consider them in your wagers, ranked in order of preference.
Two potential winners ("A" horses)
#8, So Happy (15-1): Versatility will do this Mark Glatt trainee well. Wins at three distances in four lifetime starts and in different pace scenarios, from blazing to dawdling. Mike Smith has been aboard all four starts and his only loss was his first try at two turns, yielding late but finishing third. I sense he'll be near the pace and view two-time Derby winner "Money Mike" as an asset. If nothing else, I'll be rooting hard for Glatt, whose wife died abruptly in February at 57 due to heart failure. In this environment, we could all use a feel-good story.
#6, Commandment (6-1): "Experts" are high on Bill Mott trainee Chief Wallabee (see below) but that's recency bias after the Mott-Junior Alvarado 2025 Derby victory. Commandment is better and beat Wallabee head-to-head 2x, including in the Fountain of Youth (FOY) and Florida Derby. Commandment looks like the perfect stalker who can grind out a win and not have to be right on the pace. Lots of fight in this one. Sense he'll hold his 6-1 morning line, which is great value. The knock is that jockey Luis Saez has yet to ride Commandment, as previous winning jockeys Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat went to other horses. No matter. Saez is world-class and this is a gutsy runner. The knock may be that you have to go back to 2013 to find the last FOY-Florida Derby winner dressed in roses (Orb).
Second Tier ("B" horses - some things need to go their way)
#11, Incredibolt (20-1): Very hit or miss. Two stylish come-from-behind stakes wins in the Street Sense and Virginia Derby in mid-March. Granted, fields were soft, but his late kick is eye-catching. Riley Mott may have the horse on the rise here for his Derby training debut whereas pops, Bill, has a game horse (Chief Wallabee) that only boasts a maiden victory but will draw a lot of wagering.
#15, Emerging Market (15-1): I'll hate myself, again, after the race ends in giving another promising Chad Brown horse a serious Derby look, but this one can hit the board. Only his third lifetime start after debut maiden win in Tampa, followed by Grade 2 Louisiana Derby win in mid-March. The downside is he outlasted a competitor there that's 30-1 on Saturday and may be closer to 40-1, but Prat stays aboard and appeared to be restraining EM in the early stages before letting lose late to prevail by a head. It's also hard to discount using America's best jockey somewhere on the ticket.
Third Tier ("C" horses - a lot of things need to go their way)
#1, Renegade (4-1): Morning line favorite, which is insane no matter the quality. Rail horses do not and will not win the Derby in the existing 20-horse configuration. Rail horses get a little more relief than in the past, but Renegade will have a lot to contend with to make the first turn in one piece. That said, the Irad Ortiz-Todd Pletcher jockey-trainer combo is nothing to sneeze at and they've demolished good fields in prepping for the Derby. I'd like him more with a better draw, and were the speed figures better. So you can have him at 4-1, or 5-1, or 10-1. Not my cup of tea on the win end. Maybe underneath.
#12, Chief Wallabee (8-1): I'm using him at the bottom of my trifecta and see third as ceiling. Maybe adding blinkers on Saturday is the winning recipe, but I'm not a huge fan of horses unable (to this point) to outduel foes in the stretch. It happened twice here, which is cause for concern, though like others I respect the connections. Think Alydar.
NJ Horseplayer's Ill-Fated Trifecta Ticket
Perhaps I'd serve society better making a $12 donation to charity but here's my structure, consistent with the above ABC analysis: 6, 8 with 6, 8, 11, 15 with 1, 6, 8, 11, 12, 15.
Caveat emptor as the legendary Mike Brady once advised his son Greg.
[#20, Fulleffort, removed from Third Tier after scratch on Thursday afternoon and #5, Right to Party, removed after scratch on Friday.]
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