Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Long Time, No Comment! Some BC Angles

Life's chaos has left me with scant time to write about my mediocre handicapping skills of late, but I'm hoping to "ramp up" (a term all-to-often used in financial research circles, where I work as an editor) my output over the next few weeks of the racing season and, in particular, heading toward Breeders Cup.

From a contest perspective I have participated in the Friday late-afternoon events on Derby (with each winner earning a seat to the 2012 NHC), but generally finished mid- to late-pack, so there's not much to write home about there and chances are fewer now for yours truly to qualify.  I'm hoping to use this weekend's robust cards to restock my bankroll for a '13 NHC qualifying effort.

Nonetheless, I'm turning my attention to the Super Bowl of racing this weekend, and anticipate digging into the past performances tonight, but wanted to share notes that I made right after last year's BC.  Maybe you'll find them useful...or maybe not...but after several near misses in my '11 wagers (Saturday bankroll capped at $100 and mostly $1 Pick 3s and 4s), I wanted to remind myself some angles that, with the event at Churchill again this year, could prove valuable.

Verbatim, and admitting the first angle is entirely irrelevant (but shared for the sake of honesty), here is what I noted to myself, precisely for this weekend on the handicapping calender:
Horses to Watch for 2011 and random notes: 2YO Turf Mile: Pluck (winner; 3rd in Continental Mile), Soldat, Willcox Inn (3rd in BC at 20+ to 1 odds)

Japanese runners not faring well in Breeders Cup races; avoid

Too much made of the Euro horses as race favorites; and do not get caught up in the hype of Arc d’ Triumph winners, who generally tire out. Look, instead, for rested Euro horses with decent pedigrees, along the lines of Dangerous Midge, who wired the field in the 10f BC Turf and came in off a middling $89k win in the G3 Arc Trial.

Play nothing but longer odds in the BC Dirt Mile; Dakota Phone won on the rail as a 37-1 choice in 2010, and a 21-1 winner in Furthest Land in 2009.

Calder horses (i.e. deeper, sandy track) fared much better at Churchill than other dirt players. Could be an angle worth watching if Belmont scores the 2012 BC

Look @ horses that have fared well in the past at the BC host track (i.e. horses that liked Churchill dirt in previous tries excelled in BC races). 
I share these merely to lay the foundation for the handicapping selections I'll be sharing in the run-up to Friday's and Saturday's Breeders Cup races.  I'd be curious to know whether anyone else keeps rolling notes from year to year as reminders of angles worth noting in big events such as Breeders Cup.  Feel free to chime in.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Bill! Yeah, despite your bad habit (that j-o-b), you've done your share of knocking on the NHCTour door plenty of times this year. Even getting a reasonable entry fee in DW on Fridays was cool! I've been playing DW from the beginning, but it's hard to keep my attention focused when just playing for points. LOL! As for the BC Classic, I'm doing my homework tomorrow for that and running down to the Rockingham Track here in Salem NH to pick up my hot tickets and then I'll watch the race from my living room. I seem to find myself second guessing my picks this year because I'm still digesting the Zenyatte/Blame episode. Ugh, you know which one I picked in that race :( LOL! So this year, as I don't have any rolling notes, I will go with what has been working for me all year, just taking in the info and hoping I have my lucky charm with me when I'm up at the betting window. Good Luck to you! I want to hear all about it when it's said and done :)