Friday, May 20, 2016

Mom's On Strike in the Black-Eyed Susan, Nyquist in Preakness

"Value" is a term revered by many horseplayers and public handicappers, but even as a fan of long-shots sometimes the "free square" is the best value in multirace wagers.

Such was the case two weeks ago, where I keyed long-shot Shagaf in my Derby wagers but still came out ahead in hitting back-up Oaks-Derby double and Derby trifecta bets by using Nyquist as well.

The Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness double poses a similar scenario, where Nyquist appears to be a shoe-in to go for the Triple Crown in three weeks in the Belmont Stakes.

Save for Cherry Wine, the "new shooters" (non-Derby horses) are unappealing, and with Exaggerator 0-for-4 against Nyquist, he's an underneath horse on my tickets until proving otherwise.

Regardless of conditions, Nyquist is the classiest 3-year-old of the bunch and both can handle a wet track (Saturday's forecast for Pimlico is grim) and either win on or just off the pace.

Drawn inside the "need-the-lead" types, I sense Mario Gutierrez can use Nyquist's tactical speed to either place forwardly or force the outer flow even wider out on the track, similar to Victor Espinoza's astute ride in California Chrome's 2014 Preakness victory, and make it to the finish line first.

Nyquist will be a "single" for me in allocating a small bankroll to the Friday-Saturday card.

Photo courtesy of
Track Philosopher
In terms of playing the Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness double, I will make a $10 straight double, identifying Mom's On Strike (#14) as a very playable long-shot in the Black-Eyed Susan and pairing her with Nyquist (#3).

Contrary to my view that the Derby runners in Saturday's Preakness will maintain their form against middling rivals, I have doubts about the two Black-Eyed Susan favorites (based on first odds) winning -- Land Over Sea (#3, 2-to-1) and Go Maggie Go (#5, 5-to-2).

Cathryn Sophia exposed these horses in the Kentucky Oaks as a lesser cut, in my opinion, and the short turnaround (two weeks) between Grade 1 stakes races poses the potential that the odds maker's choices could fall flat on Friday afternoon (4:50 p.m. ET post time; NBCSN coverage starts 3 p.m.).

In a 14-horse (scheduled) field where two runners have yet to win a race and a third won twice exclusively by disqualification, the Black-Eyed Susan screams long-shot.

Mom's On Strike makes sense at 15-to-1


The primary concern is that Friday represents Mom's first race against winners -- the equivalent of winning your club pro championship in golf or tennis and next finding yourself in match play versus Jordan Spieth or Roger Federer.  The jump from "maiden" victory to Grade 2 stakes is huge, but video replays suggest this horse has a world of hope to pick up the pieces late on Friday.

And none of the opponents are of the caliber of Messrs. Spieth or Federer.

A lightly-raced filly, Mom's On Strike got her first victory in her second lifetime race at Oaklawn Park on April 16 and stalked a slow pace before wearing down the leader.  The speed figures were nothing to write home about, but her prior effort on debut at Fairgrounds on March 17 was far more impressive and telling, in my opinion.

Mom's On Strike ran third that afternoon against eight other non-winners in a six-furlong sprint, but she was bumped very hard a half-dozen times out of the gate and settled so far back before missing a second-place finish by a neck.

The winner of that race came back with a decent effort against a good allowance field at Keeneland, beaten by a horse from trainer Joe Sharp's barn; Sharp is the trainer of Mom's On Strike.

Generally I am not a big "gallop out" proponent, but the race replay gives a clear indication that the horse wanted to continue running, as evidenced on April 16, and could prove a late factor in a Black-Eyed Susan where I sense the pace will be modest and no one else jumps off the racing form.

To recap, here's where I'm likely to wager on the Black-Eyed Susan:

  • $10 Black-Eyed Susan-Preakness double: Mom's on Strike (14) with Nyquist (3)
  • Black-Eyed Susan exacta and trifecta box key: Mom's on Strike (14) with Dothraki Queen (2), Land Over Sea (3) and Go Maggie Go (5)
Consistent with my Derby handicapping, here's a list of positions where I think certain horses could finish first through fourth, but anticipate maybe just a small trifecta or superfecta wager and reserve judgement on Saturday's forecast before determining bankroll; my range is $50-$100 in total.
  • 1 -- Nyquist (3)
  • 2 -- Cherry Wine (1), Exaggerator (5)
  • 3 -- Cherry Wine (1), Exaggerator (5), Fellowship (10)
  • 4 -- Cherry Wine (1), Exaggerator (5), Lani (6), Collected (7), Fellowship (10)

Friday, May 6, 2016

Cathryn Sophia in the Oaks, Shagaf in the Derby

I know everyone has been waiting for the obscure blogger from Central New Jersey to post selections for the two big races this weekend.

Cathryn Sophia is a steal at a 9-2 morning line in the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, to be run at a mile-and-an-eighth Friday at Churchill Downs at 5:49 p.m. 

Just about every "expert" that I follow and respect has panned Cathryn Sophia, saying she was exposed as a "one-turn" (sprint type) horse in the Ashland Stakes on April 9 at Keeneland, where she finished third by half a length.  

I, on the other hand, recognize that the Ashland was her first try in a race involving two turns (her first one-mile race was just one turn), and think she benefitted from the experience, both in terms of a slight check into turn one and that maybe she's averse to the whip; she seemed to shy a bit after jock Javier Castellano tapped her in the stretch as she appeared to flatten just a bit.   Her hand-ride and stalking tactics in previous starts suggests, in my view, that post 12 today is a benefit and she's simply the most talented filly in the field.

In my Oaks-Derby wagers, I will use Cathryn Sophia and Rachel's Valentina (#11, 7-to-2 morning line and the only other horse I think can win the Oaks), with three horses -- Shagaf, Nyquist and Gun Runner.

Shagaf (#16, 20-to-1 morning line) remains my top selection and betting key.  

Contrary to popular opinion about Shagaf as too slow (based on past "speed" figures) or inferior based on his Wood Memorial effort on April 9, my view is that trainer Chad Brown knew the horse had a Derby spot locked up after winning the Gotham Stakes in March and used the Wood to experiment with tactics.  


The replay validates this logic.  After a suspect start and getting hemmed in on the rail, jockey Irad Ortiz settled Shagaf about 10 lengths off the speedy front-runners in the backstretch, but it's easy to see the horse was moving easily, even in the face of kickback of mud, before Ortiz rode Shagaf up on the heels of others and had to put on the brakes,  Simply, the horse was asked to do too much throughout the race and simply wilted in the homestretch.

Any person who has competed in a road race knows, too, that it's hard to stop from a full head of steam and restart again on a dime. especially three-quarters of the way through the race.  My call is that Shagaf simply lost all momentum.  I am more confident in the horse, too, with jockey Joel Rosario aboard and am just as bullish on trainer Chad Brown as I was back in January when submitting my Derby futures wager on Shagaf.

In the Kentucky Derby, I love his draw; post #16 is to the inside of the auxiliary gate and finally provides Shagaf with a good stalking position off the early speed.  

Ignore the speed figures; this one has faced just about every scenario, even modest trouble in the Gotham, and so I think he is simply battle tested and has experienced adversity already, which is optimal in a 20-horse stampede.

I'm bullish on Shagaf and will use him with 3-to-1 favorite Nyquist, who also gets an advantageous post and is perceived as a need-the-lead type but showed in the Breeders Cup Juvenile he can stalk.  

I also like 10-to-1 Gun Runner a bit, if for no other reason than he's a proven stalker who should get a rail trip and run the least amount of ground, breaking from post #5 with zero speed to his inside and the "speed" horses flanked to his outside.

Rather than a "here's how I bet," here's a list of the positions where I think certain horses who could finish first through fourth.  I'll key Shagaf and use Nyquist as a backup and assume he finishes in the top two or well out of the money, then include closer types to round out the top four.
  • 1 -- Nyquist (13), Shagaf (16)
  • 2 -- Gun Runner (5), Nyquist (13), Shagaf (16) 
  • 3 -- Creator (3), Gun Runner (5), Exaggerator (11), Shagaf (16)
  • 4 -- Suddenbreakingnews (2), Creator (3), Mo Tom (4), Gun Runner (5), Exaggerator (11), Shagaf (16)

Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Churchill Being Churchill

The casino operator that, on the side, also happens to run thoroughbred racetracks and hosts the industry's most coveted stakes race, and whose stock has more than tripled in value since late 2011, apparently has nothing better to do than foster ill will during Kentucky Derby week.

Churchill Downs, fresh off record-high quarterly revenue and reversal to a $2.8 million profit, and about to unveil to customers on Derby weekend $18 million of renovations to its private suites, has prevented my ADW (TVG/4NJBets) from carrying the Churchill feed thus far this week.

In trying to watch replays on Tuesday night of that afternoon's card to observe potential track bias ahead of Saturday's Run for the Roses, I noticed race replays were unavailable on 4NJBets.

Apparently, the live feed from Churchill, as well as 4NJBets' use of the TVG2 live stream, also were blocked on Tuesday (and appear to be on Wednesday).

Upon contacting 4NJBets customer service, I received a vague "Churchill Downs has suspended our permission to live stream or provide race replays."

...or the Horseplayers
(campgroundsigns.com)
Strictly a guess, since Churchill's corporate news page is devoid of an announcement and I could not find media confirmation elsewhere, but it appears that racing fans, yet again with Churchill Downs, may be at the short end of a simulcast feed dispute.

Recall that, last summer, New York's OTBs dropped the Churchill simulcast feeds (covering other CDI-owned properties such as Arlington Park).  The Mid-Atlantic Cooperative has been at the center of similar disputes.  A few years back, I encouraged (successfully) Monmouth Park to ditch Churchill Downs from one of its spring handicapping contests as a result of a simulcast feud, arguing that MP should not support money going into Churchill's parimutuel pool.

Churchill Downs in its latest 10-Q filing with the SEC did not break out first-quarter revenue or profitability derived from its simulcast signal; and although I recognize the inherent leverage of that feed as a revenue source, it is increasingly obnoxious to cut off the signal to handicappers, especially during the week of its single biggest event.  (The company's 2015 annual report -- in a year where revenue surged 49% to $1.21 billion and net income approached $4 per share -- merely lists "simulcast and ADW receivables" of $14.8 million on its financial statements.) 

The assumption, then, is that simulcast revenue is chicken feed and a loss leader in the big picture.

Blocking the simulcast and replay feed to ADW customers is just another example of why, for the second straight year, I will exclusively wager on Saturday's Derby and no other race at Churchill Downs properties the other 364 days of the year.

The company can afford grandiose expansion of its flagship track for high-end Derby clientele and, most recently, $25 million expansion of a casino in Maine, but otherwise seems to care less about daily simulcast users, similar to its treatment of a Hall of Fame star at the 2014 Derby.