Departing Words

It's obvious that Orb will go off as odds-on favorite in the 2013 Preakness Stakes, but I am not entirely certain that's the smart money, even if on paper the Kentucky Derby champ appears best in a 9-horse field.

There are two new shooters in the mix -- Departing and Governor Charlie - that drew my attention, even though both come out of less-than-spectacular fields in their prior races.

Departing is my top choice and, in my opinion, will be grossly overlooked on Saturday.

As of late Friday, Departing was getting little respect as well on Public Handicapper's odds board at 11-to-1, nearly double his 6-to-1 morning line and third-highest on the board, just ahead of Oxbow and well ahead of Titletown Five, whom Bart Starr and Vince Lombardi could not even save in this spot.

Banking on Brian Hernandez

In my opinion, Departing has done nothing wrong, having won 4 of 5 career starts, including the Grade 3 Illinois Derby in convincing 6-wide fashion, and was full of run but compromised late in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby when rider Brian J. Hernandez rode up eventual winner Revolutionary's tail in the stretch and had to shift sharply twice but finished an engaged third.

I simply think Departing's style fits Pimlico.  The horse seems comfortable from a stalking position and seems easily capable of gaining ground late, as evidenced by as 12.3 final eighth mile in the Illinois Derby and outdistancing the competition by 3+ lengths even after running 6-7 wide.  Whether Hernandez can steer his mount away from trouble is my primary concern, but I think Departing could loom large on Saturday.

Governor Charlie drew my attention as well, and clearly trainer Bob Baffert owns this race, as evidenced by five Preakness titles, but the Sunland Derby was bereft of talent.  The place and show runners in that field did little in their ensuing races.

Still, this horse can easily get the distance while forwardly placed, and so I will use him and Orb under Departing in very small Preakness (Race 12) bets.

See Tobe Score

The handicapping that I put into the Preakness revolved around this week's Public Handicapper all-stakes Pick 4 from Pimlico.  Whether I'm alive to my egregious long-shot of the day is another question, but I really like the chances of 20-to-1 morning line shot See Tobe in the Grade 2 Dixie (Race 11).

The Dixie has some big names - Willcox Inn, Optimizer and Swift Warrior -- to name a few, but in my opinion a lot of the 13-horse field is either somewhat off form (i.e. Grade 3 winners Doubles Partner and Humble and Hungry) or on the downside.

As I see it, 7-to-2 morning line favorite Optimizer will get a ton of respect off his second-place finish in the Turf Classic at Churchill two weeks back, and 4-to-1 Swift Warrior will take money as well off two straight Grade 3 wins, even though those races were at Tampa and Sam Houston - not world-beaters.

If the Public Handicapper odds board is any indication, horseplayers will dismiss See Tobe, the second-longest shot as of Friday evening at 57-to-1.  I would take those odds any day.

See Tobe's running line will reflect primarily a local Maryland-New York type runner with lots of runner-ups against perceived lesser company.  Five races back, however, See Tobe showed good late kick to finish second to Boisterous, a multiple graded stakes winner with $800k+ of earnings, in the Grade 3 Knickerbocker.  Toss his 2013 debut and note the decent late-running fifth to some good horses like Bad Debt and Sleepless Knight eight days later and I think you've got a bomber with a serious shot to upset.

Banking on Rudy

The first two legs of Saturday's all-stakes Pick 4 are far less exciting, in my view, but I'm sure I'll be kicking myself for leaning toward back-to-back Rudy Rodriguez runners in the Grade 3 Gallorette Handicap (Race 9) and Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap.

In the Gallorette, Silver Screamer gets the nod for me at 8-to-1.  Perhaps the "No Rider" notation for Silver Screamer's jockey explains why he's 18-to-1 on Public Handicapper, but I'm willing to roll the dice on a horse who fired very well off his last two layoffs and I anticipate will benefit from drawing outside.  This horse, assuming he's still in on Saturday and finds a rider, seems capable of stalking early pace, as evidenced in the 2012 Eatontown at Monmouth Park.

Rudy's next runner, Sage Valley, may be a single for me in the Pick 4.  After spending too much time assessing this field, I simply think Sage Valley is the best horse, and I'll be glad to take the 9-to-2 odds offered on Public Handicapper.  I continue to waver on this one, but Laurie's Rocket looms the primary danger, in my view, and I may leave him off my tickets.

All-Stakes Pick 4

Good luck to those of you playing on Saturday, and if you want to burn your money, there's no better way than following the sage advice of NJ Horseplayer.

• $1 Pick 4, Race 9: 1, 4, 6, 9 with 10 with 4, 8, 10 with 1, 4, 8 = $36
• I would substitute 8 as my single in Race 10 if the 10 horse scratches
• $2 Double, Race 11: 8 with 1, 4, 8 = $6
• $10 Exacta, Race 12: 4 with 1, 8 = $20
• $20 Win, Race 12 (Preakness): 4, Departing = $20

A Potential Mother Lode of a Contest

(Edited May 10 to amend some egregious flaws in my interpretation of NHC points awards and fresh guidance about Sunday's tournament being in the "pick-and-pray" format)

There's no way in hell I'd get to play live in any handicapping contest this Sunday (ugh, Mother's Day), but as an NHC Tour player and writer, I registered for an intriguing new handicapping contest series offered by HorseTourneys.com.

HorseTourneys.com is running a 3-contest feeder series that will award two berths to the Del Mar Handicapping Challenge (DMHC) on Saturday, July 27 and Sunday, July 28, where five (5) spots will be awarded to the National Handicapping Championship (NHC XV) next January in Las Vegas.

The entry fee to HorseTourneys.com's Del Mar feeder is only $29.  The format will be "pick and pray" (i.e. enter selections for the full contest card before post time of the first contest race).

Not the kind of Mother Lode
NJ Horseplayer has in mind...
but one worth watching
(cover your ears)

Two more feeders are scheduled -- Saturday, May 18 (Preakness Day) and Sunday, May 26.

Feeders are capped at 200 players and 1 entry per player, with the top two finishers from each feeder squaring off in a 6-player championship on Sunday, June 2, for two berths to Del Mar and the others receiving $250-$500 of site credit.

The NHC Tour Point Dynamic

As an NHC Tour player with at least some leaderboard points (989 from the Monmouth Park SSC Invitational, good for a temporary spot among the Top 200), I have begun to ponder the need to accumulate more points in hopes of cracking the Top 150 -- good enough for a back door to NHC XV (assuming I do not win an NHC qualifier outright).

The way I see it, HorseTourneys is offering not only unique access to the NHC through the Del Mar Handicapping Challenge, but also potential entry to an elite live-money, on-track tournament limited to 60 contestants, where the buy-in is $6,000 and players like me are priced out of the market.

Here's the Del Mar prize structure (all with an NHC berth and $700 travel stipend):

• 1st place -- NHC, paid $10,000 Breeders Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) buy-in, $25,000 cash
• 2nd -- NHC, $2,500 toward BCBC, $10,000 cash
• 3rd -- NHC, $2,500 toward BCBC, $5,000 cash
• 4th -- NHC, $2,500 toward BCBC, $3,000 cash
• 5th -- NHC, $2,500 toward BCBC, $2,000 cash

NHC berths alone are worth their weight in gold, but the other rewards are clearly enticing as well.

From an NHC Tour points perspective, the two players who come out of HorseTourneys.com's Del Mar feeder series and finish in the top 10% of the DMHC would come away with at least 1,000 Tour points (roughly 3,800 for first, down to 1,250 for sixth for an "on-site" tourney with buy-ins).

Not bad for $29!

Consistent with the format for the 6-player HorseTourneys.com final on Sunday, June 2, I'm guessing the Mother's Day feeder will consist of 10 mandatory races, with notional $2 win-place wagering and a 22-to-1 cap on win and 10-to-1 cap on place.

HorseTourneys.com has rolled out a "challenge wagering" format for some contests, where players make selections on, say, 8 of 15 possible races, but the Mother's Day feeder will feature the "pick-and-pray" format, giving those of us who can, say, handicap the card on Saturday but cannot play on Sunday an opportunity to participate.

Credit once again to HorseTourneys.com tournament director McKay Smith for adding an interesting new wrinkle to the handicapping contest circuit and creating a unique opportunity for NHC Tour players, namely those in states with fewer on-track tournaments.  Anyone with questions should contact support@horsetourneys.com.

Already 40 of 200 spots for Sunday have been claimed, and I anticipate a sellout at the $29 price point.

Happy Mother's Day!

I would say "see you online" this Sunday, but chance are I'll (like many other NHC Tour players with the non-horseplayer wives and moms) be catering to my lovely wife and mother-in-law this Mother's Day, as they surely deserve it.

Meanwhile, my mom's en route to Boston to work the 7th Annual Alstrom Syndrome International Family & Medical Conference, so she gets an rain check.

But, as a casual horseplayer herself, I'm sure she'll be amenable to a long-distance Mother's Day blessing...and an IOU on a non-contest day.

The Case for Revolutionary

The luxury of having one Kentucky Derby entry is something most of us can only dream, but trainer Todd Pletcher is in the catbird's set tomorrow with five very formidable contenders.

Revolutionary gets the nod from NJ Horseplayer, despite 5-to-1 co-favoritism on Public Handicapper's odds board as of mid-afternoon Friday.  Here's to hoping the bettors tomorrow are not as optimistic as on this horse, listed at 10-to-1 on the morning line.

Without belaboring what I would consider a 19-horse prop bet (the field is too enormous to devote extraordinary time to handicapping), I landed on Revolutionary for a few reasons, namely (in no order) the most prolific jockey in recent Kentucky Derby history, decent prospects for a ground-saving trip and ability to close in the end, the scratch of the rail horse Black Onyx (i.e. one less horse in the gate to Revolutionary's inside), and the horse's gutsy persona.

The Withers Stakes was not a drop-dead gorgeous field or race, but what I saw in early February from Revolutionary told me this horse can handle the stress of a major race like the Derby and not get discouraged in traffic -- a key component of my handicapping for this race.

I gave serious consideration to Pletcher's morning-line favorite Verrazano, but I find 4-to-1 short for a horse who, despite rolling over the competition in four straight races as a 3-year-old, has never really run into trouble and has more or less had his way with the opposition.  Similar to the Tampa Bay Derby, Verrazano will have to deal with the quick-from-the-gate Falling Sky, not to mention other need-the-lead types like Giant Finish -- another 50-to-1 shot who will need a miracle to wire the field.  A stumble at the gate or settling back into a stalking position is an area where I question Verrazano's ability, but will still use him underneath in my (mostly) exotic tickets.

One horse that scares me is Vyjack, at 15-to-1 on the morning line but 47-to-1 on Public Handicapper, which is egregiously high, in my view, and too dismissive of a gutsy third-place run at Verrazano in the Wood Memorial on April 6.  It comes as no surprise, too, that people have fallen in love with Normandy Invasion off a fast-closing second-place in the Wood, but I'm the type that thinks some horses just...do not win.  I'll use Normandy Invasion underneath, but think 6-to-1 (again, PH.com) is too short for a horse whose only victory came in the maiden special weight ranks.

I gave Java's War a long look too (perhaps longer than all others), but think he's a grass-poly horse who'll have too much ground to make up late in the stretch.  I'll use him underneath, but put his second to Verrazano in the Tampa Derby a wrung below, considering the weak field and that Java never made up ground on a lightly ridden Verrazano toward the wire.

So, without further adieu, and learning toward horses that have either shown an ability to stalk or close or survive a bad trip prior, here are the official NJ Horseplayer wagers for the 2013 Kentucky Derby:

• $20 win 3 (Revolutionary)
• $5 exacta wheel 3, 20 over 3, 5, 14, 20 (Revolutionary-Vyjack over Revolutionary-Vjack-Normandy Invasion-Verrazano) -- $30 total
• $1 trifecta wheel (same as the first two exacta legs) 3, 20 over 3, 5, 14, 20 over 3, 5, 6, 14, 16, 19, 20 (throwing Mylute and Orb into the mix) -- $30 total
• $1 superfecta (for giggles) 3, 20 over 3, 20 over 5, 14, 19 over 5, 14, 19  -- $12 total
• $4 win-place 20 (Vyjack) -- backup bet -- $8 total

Total bankroll: $100.

Good luck to everyone in the Kentucky Derby!

Vegas Plans On Hold

If one thing's for certain after Saturday's Simulcast Series Challenge Invitational at Monmouth Park, it's that I'm becoming a credible handicapping contest player, but have a long way to go before reaching the upper echelon and a National Handicapping Championship (NHC) seat.

Pending Monmouth Park's audit, Joseph Perry and Mary Wilmes earned berths to NHC XV in Las Vegas next January, turning their $200 live bankrolls into $1,419 and $1,099.90 respective finishes by the close of Saturday's Keeneland finale.

(Contest parameters were at least 10 win, place or show wagers of at least $20 each on Keeneland, Aqueduct and Tampa -- Top 2 finishers to Vegas).

In the end, I'm estimating I picked up 900-950 NHC Tour points for at least having some bankroll in the end (a meager $6.25, to be exact...more on this later), which is mere consolation in a tournament where I had a hard time managing one of my two entries I earned but at one point was in the Top 10 with my second.

There were three turning points that help explain my outcome.

Thor's Mjolnor

Juggling a 30-race handicapping contest card is difficult enough, but I knew it would be even tougher with two contest entries, so I studied Aqueduct and Tampa on Thursday and Friday nights but found just seven races I considered playable, and only 3-4 horses where I had real conviction.

One of those was in Race 6 from Aqueduct, a $25,000 New York-bred optional claimer at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on turf.  East of Danzig, coming off a 4-month layoff and shipping in from Gulfstream Park, looked vulnerable to me as 5-to-2 morning line choice, and I thought 12-to-1 Thor's Mjolnor was logical, and yet another indication of where Beyer speed figures are somewhat useless.

Thor's Mjolnor, a Gary Contessa trainee, was hard used, having run eight times since November 3 -- coincidentally the date of his first and only turf race, a closing 6th-place finish against tougher state-bred allowance company.  Considering jockey David Cohen's aggressive riding style, I thought Thor had a shot, as did others; the horse opened around 5-to-1 and went off just under 8-to-1.

In hindsight, however, my $20 win-$5 show wager was too soft for a horse I absolutely loved, as Thor got the perfect trip and held off a hard-charging East of Danzig, netting me $184.25 and running my bankroll to $314.25 through five bets.

Two races earlier, I missed out on another sizable payout when 11-to-1 Comes the Dream got run down late by even-money favorite Mills in Race 4 from Keeneland, but I should have attacked Thor Mjolnor more aggressively.

Regardless, I found myself in a pretty good stalking position (between 6th-10th to that point) and, at the least, knew I was certainly in the mix for a Top 2 finish.

Tough Tampa Beats

On my 8th and 10th contest bets, I had tough-to-swallow defeats in back-to-back Tampa races with logical horses: Delta Bluesman in Race 8 and (my best bet from Tampa) Iloveyourbutimbored in Race 9.

Two admittedly speculative losses after the Thor's Mjolnor score set me back $40, and with $274.25 remaining (and running out of races to bet as, amazingly, I was extremely patient with my selection) my goal was to try to increase my bankroll to around $400 -- enough for a major late wager on a favorite to steal the contest where it looked, to me, the chalk would win the late races.

Delta Bluesman was a third-time maiden who ran decently against similar Special Weight company and pitted against what I considered a lackluster 8-horse field with only one first-time starter.  Delta's debut on February 17, a 6-furlong sprint, was the key -- a race that included 2013 Colt and Gelding Division OBS Championship winner Michael With Us, owned by local connections at Kenwood Racing.  The barn is rather hot this season, and I regularly keep tabs on H. Robb Levinsky's horses.

The 3-to-1 odds seemed fair, so I bet $20 to win on Delta, who, to quote the Daily Racing Form chart, "showed strong stamina to drive to a clear lead a furlong out only to hang near the wire."  Of course the winner was the first-time starter, Dancin n' Dealin at nearly 13-to-1 (jockey Danny Coa won 3 of the last 4 Tampa races).  That was the only time I punched my table all afternoon in frustration.  

Next race, I loved Iloveyoubutimbored at a 6-to-1 morning line and even stayed on him with a $40 win wager when bet down to 5-to-2 co-favorite, but apropos of my Tampa selections this day, my horse hung in the stretch and finished second.

Had those two horses held on for wins, my bankroll would have been roughly $380 instead of $216 with five races left on the contest card.  To boot, had my bet between those two -- $20 to win and show on 7-to-1 runner-up Spun Cap -- had enough stamina to hold off the impressive Sweet Cassiopeia in the $100,000 Giants Causeway in Race 8 from Keeneland, I'd have had around $520...mission accomplished, right?!

Saddle Literally Shuffled -- Final Turning Point

I was not enamored with any horses in the finales at either of the three tracks, and had merely lukewarm conviction about the Coolmore Lexington Stakes from Keeneland (Race 9).

Scratched from the top of my notes on the race from my pre-contest handicapping Saturday morning was "lukewarm on the No. 1", altered to "prefer 7, but only lukewarm."

For the record, No. 1 was Winning Cause ($15.60 winner) and No. 7 was Examen (9th place).  Ugh!

The more I looked at the Coolmore, I knew the race was prime for a stalker-closer type, and stuck with Examen, based on the connections (34% win rate for Garrett Gomez-Tom Proctor), my usual admiration of Gomez's handling of late runners in turf races and that Keeneland's synthetic surface would suit Examen, and a Giant's Causeway pedigree.  For those reasons, I gave him the edge over Winning Cause, who I knew could close but was not sold could win at two turns (his two wins were at 7 furlongs, but at Keeneland).

Examen looked to be making up ground toward the final turn and was angling toward the rail but ran squarely into traffic, and from that point on his race went downhill, with Gomez tugging Examen up ever so slightly and Gomez appearing uneasy in the saddle.

Net result -- $50 win and $20 place wager out the window, and my bankroll down to $146.25.

After two ill-advised $20 stabs at big prices in chalky-looking Tampa and Aqueduct finales, I bet $60 win and $40 place on 16-to-1 Break of Silence, who was double his morning line odds and won two straight but was up against a clear favorite in Suyeta, who ultimately won by a widening three lengths in the Keeneland finale.  I cannot complain, as my horse ran a game fourth but was a cut below.

No Real Regrets

Credit to Nicole Lince for running what was another spectacular Simulcast Series Challenge (SSC) -- my favorite handicapping contest series.  Monmouth Park management could consider catering the affair similar to New York contest venues (i.e. Belmont, Aqueduct) to give the invitational players something more for their accomplishment, but otherwise offers players a tremendous and utterly challenging tournament.

More than 2 NHC seats would be nice too, but that's for another discussion.

I suppose I could benefit from the 900+ NHC Tour points for clinging to around a 15th-place finish just for holding on to a few bucks of bankroll in the end, but realistically I'd need to play in online tournaments more regularly to accrue enough points to sustain a place in the Top 150 of the Tour standings (a backdoor into NHC XV).  There's plenty of tournament season left to pick up some points in other venues, and unlike a lot of other Tour players I suppose I have the benefit of logging requisite points for one on-track tournament; the rest I'll get online.

Saturday's bid to finish first or second, however, was scuttled by several near misses that, again, prove at certain times it's better to be lucky than consistent, and I need to go back to the drawing board in terms of when to really drop the hammer on a top choice like Thor's Mjolnor and eschew conservatism, rather than worrying about knocking myself out of a contest too early.

On the flip side, I did not want to come away from two contest entries totally empty (colleague Steve Fitzpatrick reminded me that the Top 30 finishers would earn NHC Tour points), and playing my way into two entries in the first place is a bullish indicator for my handicapping contest future, so chalk Saturday up to another valuable learning experience on my quest to an NHC berth.

Ayes for Keeneland

This should come as no shock to anyone, but Keeneland Race Course is outstanding!

The NJ Horseplayer caravan -- alright...me and my two kids -- returned last Sunday from a 5-day junket that ultimately I dubbed the 2013 America's Pastime Tour, including baseball day games in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, as well as stops at Keeneland and Old Friends Farm just outside of Lexington, KY.

Feast your eyes on Thurman's
Bacon Cheddar Ranch Burger...
3/4 lbs. of juicy goodness
(and a higher BP for me) 

There's nothing that says Americana more than baseball and horse racing...and burning up lots of gasoline to drive over 1,000 miles round trip while stopping along the way at some of the top local U.S. establishments, including Thurman Cafe in Columbus, OH, Primanti Bros. in Pittsburgh and the Windy Corner Market in Lexington, KY.

Keenelend will be a critical focus in the week ahead, especially ahead of next Saturday's Simulcast Series Challenge Invitational at Monmouth Park (2 NHC seats up for grabs among 60 entries), where as you might have read me boasting about winning two entries.

As Keeneland is one of three contest tracks scheduled (Tampa Bay Downs and Aqueduct the others), I really need to brush up on my Keeneland in advance of the SSC, but come away from my visit last Friday with nothing but visions of grandeur.

If I let my daughter pick for me, I might do even better next week; my brilliant 11-year-old called the winners of last Friday's early Pick 3.  (I did one-up her with a good score on a 3-to-1 shot -- Upgrade, a horse I loved at Gulfstream in SSC#3 that scratched that day -- and a $30 base exacta.)

NJ Horseplayer road-trippers
bracing for a big visit to Keeneland

For anyone who has never been to Keeneland, I would highly recommend spending more time than we did.  One day simply is not enough, especially if you have the time.

We rolled into the parking lot around 11:30 a.m. for the 1:05 p.m. first post on opening day and spent some time feeling our way around the grounds.  Regretfully, I was a day early and had to pass on fellow blogger Derek Brown's (@NJDerek) kind offer to attend his tailgate; tailgating, I learned, is a must, and there's plenty of acreage for it on the expansive Keeneland grounds.

On the way in, I could not avoid how well-dressed everyone was for the occasion (many, especially the younger set, in khakis, sport-jackets and ties), and how young an audience.  The kind folks (Sam and her husband Dave Hendrix...no relation to either NASCAR or the 60s guitar icon) seated next to us deemed this the norm, and that many UK students regularly attend the track, particularly during the spring meeting.  I was impressed, flying in the face of widespread negative commentary I have seen elsewhere that racing cannot attract a younger audience.

Scene from the paddock

Access to everything once inside, from placing wagers to buying food and drinks to gift shopping, was brilliant.  I would estimate the crowd at roughly 25,000-30,000 and I did not wait in a single line, and all of the staff were extremely pleasant, unlike many other sporting venues I have attended.  The food was good; my son and I took Tom S's advice and got the Kentucky Burgoo (stew), which was very tasty, and the "adult" drink selections obviously focused on bourbon but was diverse as well.

The paddock, meanwhile, combined a feel of new-world construction with old world charm.  The facades at Keeneland are impeccably clean and everything else so well manicured, and the crowds around the walking circles are electric and hospitable, even elbow-to-elbow with most patrons.  Keeneland reminded me of Saratoga in many ways in terms of the experience and quality of racing, but is unique.

Upon our exit, we strolled through the stable area, which interestingly sits to the right front of the main track entrance and is pretty much open access.  We caught stable hands washing down and feeding horses, and I found it a great experience, especially for the kids, to get a backstage pass of sorts into the operation.  Not that patrons cannot access the stable areas at places like Saratoga and nearby Monmouth, but scheduled tours are the norms there, from what I have experienced.

I absolutely cannot wait to return to Keeneland again, maybe next time with my wife and/or friends, to experience more of the outside "adult" activities like the Bourbon Trail...and to see more premier racing.

Catching Up With Old Friends

Outside of Keeneland, one place I will absolutely revisit in Kentucky is Old Friends Farm.

NJ Horseplayer-in-the-making
bonds with Arson Squad

The kids and I hit Old Friends on Saturday morning on our way to Cincinnati to meet a longtime Rutgers friend at the Reds game, and the 90-minute tour was extremely enjoyable and would far prove more nostalgic for fans with deeper historical knowledge of racing.

As a casual thoroughbred racing fan until joining the NHC Tour in 2010 and getting involved in the handicapping contest circuit, I could only lay claim to recognizing some of the name residents at Old Farm -- Gulch, of course...Arson Squad and Seabiscuit impostor Popcorn Deelites, to name a few.

Gulch enjoying a happy retirement

I was hoping to meet Eclipse award winner Rapid Redux, who gained headlines for 22 straight wins in 2011-2012, but he was resting at a satellite farm.

The tour is magnificent!

Visitors benefit from the setup the proprietors afford, walking through a well-designed route that provides hands-on access to the horses, most of whom were happy to take in a few carrots from us and a rub of the neck.

Outside the Windy Corner
Market, hidden away in the
beautiful horse-countryside
of Lexington, KY

I felt particularly connected to Arson Squad -- not sure why. Maybe it had to do with winning a NJ-based Meadowlands Cup in 2008 and sensing that we were Jersey folk, but probably more that he was just a cool and friendly customer.  I really enjoyed being in his presence most.

As the kids and I made a donation to take the tour, and spent a decent amount of cash in the gift shop, I would encourage readers to consider making a donation to this wonderful venue.  Until last week, I heard their advertisements multiple times on At the Races on Sirius and contemplated a donation but lost track.

Now, however, I plan to include Old Friends as part of my family's annual giving, recognizing not only the value that the operators of Old Friends put in to caring for these distinguished horses, but the education and joy they provide to anyone crossing the farm's path.

Easter Blessings

March proved a pretty good month for NJ Horseplayer, garnering not just one, but two berths in the Simulcast Series Challenge Invitational on Saturday, April 20 at Monmouth Park.

Results are pending Monmouth Park's audit, but yesterday I finished 8th out of a record-high 323 contestants in SSC#3, where the top 20 finishers round out a 60-entry field, with the top two players on April 20 advancing to the 2014 National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas next January.

Considering there are few local on-track NHC qualifying events, picking up a pair of spots in the SSC Invitational seems a coveted accomplishment in my third full season of competition, and getting to play two cards gives me a 1-in-30 shot at Vegas -- not bad, considering that over the course of the SSC qualifiers, there were some 900 entrants playing to make the final 60.

Tossing Discipline Out The Window

I spent a good amount of time on Friday handicapping two of Saturday's contest tracks -- Aqueduct and Gulfstream Park; I left Tampa aside, considering the lack of quality (one one allowance race).  I targeted 7 "must-play" races of 23 total, five that I classified as "maybes", and tossed the other dozen or so aside (Gulfstream's was a deep card, with 13 races on Florida Derby Day).

However, three of my seven "best bets" scratched, prompting me to break from my strategy of limiting my number of intended plays to 10-12 bets and delving more deeply into my "maybe" races.  I ended up making 18 overall (of 34 carded races), not sold on anything in particular and dabbling a lot on horses I thought at least had a shot at offering value.

Unfortunately I rushed into Monmouth Park to bet Race 1 at Gulfstream, where a dud named Happy Fella dropped my $100 starting bankroll by $10.  Another "must-bet", Race 1 at Aqueduct, proved a harbinger of my late-contest play, where I switched off a horse I liked a lot, Ambassador Bridge, but not at less than 2-to-1 (off a 9-to-2 morning line) and lost $10 more on a flat Troubleinrivercity.

Deviating from my initial pick proved valuable in my third contest race, where I thought Summer Breezing was too huge an underlay off a 6-to-1 morning line in Race 3 from Gulfstream.  Monument Hill looked like a much better value at 9-to-2, considering his turf record (5 wins and only 3 off-the-board finishes in 19 turf starts) and decent performance in mid-February off a 7-month layoff.  A courageous stretch ride by Paco Lopez proved the difference in Monument Hill winning and padding my bankroll to $125.

My next 6 plays proved fruitless, including a confident $20 win/$10 show wager on 26-to-1 Alcolite in Race 5 from Aqueduct (finished a game fourth); I stuck to my guns, singling out Alcolite as a horse with a puncher's chance in what I considered a lackluster field of state-bred optional claimers.

Nothing Better Than A Beer

With my bankroll down to $45 a little more than halfway into the contest card, Will Run for Beer seemed like a logical contender in Race 7 from Tampa, the aforementioned allowance race at a mile and a sixteenth on turf.

Perhaps flawed, but I tend to throw class out the window at Tampa most of the time, and I was not turned off by the class jump for Will Run for Beer from the claiming ranks; the horse was fresh off an early-February turf win at Tampa and seemed logical, and jockey David Amiss is lightly-raced but sports a respectable record for 2013.

Amiss guided Will Run for Beer to a nose victory, breathing life into my contest hopes with a $103 score and upping my bankroll to $138 -- not great, but positive territory after 10 wagers.

With no great confidence in anything on the rest of the contest card, however, I dipped down into some "maybe" race plays and went 0-for-5 to drop my bankroll to $78.

My fortunes changed in a major way in Race 10 from Aqueduct.

No Offense, Pierre Tomas...

I think every horseplayer has jockeys that make their skin crawl.

This Pierre knows how to
take it to the house

For me, Joe Bravo never wins when NJ Horseplayer money is on the line, and somehow I have no luck anytime I bet on Joe Talamo.

There a part of me that thinks jockeys like this get extra pleasure in the winner's circle when my money's not on them, knowing that my hard-earned money went out the window with them so often.

Admit it, you've been there too.

Then there's Pierre Tomas, not to be confused with the New Orleans Saints running back, who in some years proved valuable to my fantasy football teams.

Tomas, to me, is an automatic toss in any race.  I have never really seen this jockey squeeze anything extraordinary out of a horse that, granted, probably has little chance of winning a race, but I've seen the likes of Eibar Coa, Maylan Studart and Vinnie Bednar score improbable victories on long-shots.

Pierre Tomas...  not so much, as borne out by Equibase data -- 4 wins in 170 starts.

...Christian Hidalgo Rocks

Precisely why Beyer
Speed Figures mean little
most of the time

Race 10 at Aqueduct, a bottom-level state-bred claimer that drew a whopping 15 entries (four of whom scratched before the card and another that scratched at the gate), looked very playable to me, considering there was no clear favorite in a field better suited for hansom cab duty a few miles west in Central Park.

As seen in the first of two pages of past performances for the race (you can thank me for saving you the anguish of seeing the other entries), I made a notation to myself when handicapping on Friday that the 3 was "maybe worth a look if desperate" -- not the most bullish of indicators, but there were several reasons to consider Trixie Star at a 30-to-1 morning line, in my view:

• Trained by James Ryerson, who scores 12% overall and on dirt, in sprints and with maiden claimers
• Race under her belt, albeit a distant seventh of 11 at the $16k claiming level, signaled some positives:
• "Rank early, greenly" signaled that maybe she simply needed a race just to get acclimated to getting into the starting gate and learning how to race
• March 15 race line suggests she got left at the gate, but actually passed two horses in the stretch and gained 3.5 lengths on the ultimate winner, Rockin Mandy
• March 15 second-place finisher T C Lane was third choice at 5-to-1 in Saturday's morning line but scratched as an "also eligible" after running a close fourth in a race at Aqueduct on Friday
• Three of five relatively speedy works of five: March 4, February 2 and January 29
• and, last but not least...rider switch from Pierre Tomas to...anyone else...

Who Is Christian Hidalgo?

That's a tremendous question, and one I could not come close to answering when my contest compatriot Terry Flanagan posed it to me yesterday afternoon.  

In hindsight, it turns out Christian Hidalgo rode long-shot Tactical Saenz to a runner-up finish in Race 1 from Aqueduct, and Equibase data show 3 wins, 4 seconds and 2 thirds in 55 starts...not awful for a 10-pound bug on a tough circuit. 

In any case, I thought the combination of these factors merited a $5 win-place stab (SSC contests mandate win-place-show wagers of at least $10 total) on Trixie Star, even with the odds escalating above 40-to-1 at the time of wager.

Trixie Star broke very well from post 3, securing a place among the top two through a quarter-mile in 22.40 seconds and then getting into a speed duel with 3-to-1 co-second choice Ferritto; these two clicked off a half mile in 45.74 seconds, egregiously sharp for $16,000 maiden claimers.  

Neck and neck entering Aqueduct's final turn and into the stretch, Trixie Star scored a neck victory...at 76-to-1!!!

The miraculous $513.75 score ran my bankroll to $581.75 at that point, good for a short-lived third-place. 

With only four races on the card, I knew I had a Top 20 finish and second berth in the SSC Invitational, but was insecure about my place in the standings, since several players behind me had $250-$400 bankrolls and could easily knock me down the standings, which happened over the next three races.  

Admittedly paralyzed by the unlikely victory at Aqueduct, I passed on Race 11 from Gulfstream, where on Friday I pegged 8-to-1 Upgrade as my top Gulfstream pick on the day, but he scratched, and I was not in love with any of the other runners in the Grade 3 Appleton.  I then erred in passing on the Florida Derby as well, where I liked Orb but could not pull the trigger hovering around 5-to-2.  

So, heading into the final contest race, an allowance turf race from Gulfstream, I was in 5th or 6th place.  

Where Second Guessing Hurts

On Friday, I circled 6-to-1 Transgression as my top choice in Race 13, a $64,500 allowance.  

With 15 minutes to reconsider that choice, I erred in switching off to 5-to-2 Celestial Kitten, who was breaking from post 9 but, to me, seemed the class of the field.  I figured I did not have a shot at taking down the entire contest (the leader was still over $2,200 at that point), and so I wagered $50 win-place, figuring I had a logical horse who could run my bankroll toward $700+ and perhaps grab a Top 5 placement and heftier prize money (fifth was worth $1,130).  

Celestial Kitten ran decently under Joe Rocco, but too wide into the final turn and flattened out to finish third behind, you guessed it...Transgression.  

Following the race, it was a matter of gauging the leaderboard to see where I finished -- 8th, ultimately, so clearly the final race gamble did not hurt me that much, considering 6th-10th place payouts were the same.  I was $100 lighter, but in the end, satisfied with another Top 20 finish.

Great Day When All Is Said and Done

I have yet to figure out how to handle two entries for the SSC Invitational on April 20, but I'll ponder that in the weeks to come.  There are many players, I'm sure, that would like to have that dilemma, so for that I'm fortunate to have played pretty well in back-to-back contests and topped several classy handicappers.  

Furthermore, I also had another wonderful afternoon catching up with some great people on the contest circuit -- Jersey Capper Ray Wallin, Steve Fitzpatrick (who qualified for the SSC Invitational with a Top 20 finish in SSC#1), Paul Zerbst (NHC qualifier and SSC Invitational runner-up in 2011) and Mr. Flanagan.  The shared passion of fellow handicapping contest players and the ability to tap their opinions and share some laughs and great discussion make SSC one of the best tournaments out there.  

Coming home a little richer as well certainly did not hurt matters either, so now I've got some extra powder to buy my two entries for April 20 and hope that my fortunes improve even more on my quest to qualify for NHC XV next January. 

Maiden Voyage to Keeneland...Need Advice

The NJ Horseplayer is as eager as ever for this Saturday's Simulcast Series Challenge (#3) at Monmouth Park, but perhaps more anxious to hit the road to attend opening day at Keeneland next Friday.

By virtue of my top-20 finish in SSC#2 on March 2, I have already locked up a berth in April's SSC Invitation at Monmouth, where the top two of 60 qualifiers will win berths to the National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas next January.  That gives me the option to play a little more fast and loose in SSC#3, but it's too early to discuss and I'll save writing a preview for later this week, once I've had an opportunity to sift through past performances for Saturday's card (Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Tampa).

NJ Horseplayer to Keeneland for
opening day: Friday, April 5

Considering I have never been to Keeneland Race Course, it's not too early to solicit ideas for what I and my two kids should do during our maiden visit only 10 days away. 

So, what should the NJ Horseplayer contingent do?

The caravan (not the minivan variety -- I'm Volkswagen diesel all the way) makes its first stop at about our halfway point -- Pittsburgh, PA, where we'll devour some Primanti Bros. sandwiches in the original Strip District location, maybe hit Deluca's for its buckwheat pancakes, ride the Duquesne Incline and shiver our way through a Pirates day game vs. the Cubs. 

Then we hit the road for Lexington.  Rain, snow or shine, we've got our grandstand tickets already for fabulous Keeneland and plan on arriving early just to stroll the grounds and take in the beauty.  

From there, it's anyone's guess, and I could really use help for "must visit" eateries and attractions from people who've been before.  Or, if anyone has contacts and can hooks up up with something unique, I'm all ears. 

If the weather allows, we'll head up to Cincinnati for Saturday's Reds game before heading back to NJ, but I'm open to sticking around the Keeneland area if there are things we absolutely should do in our short stay.

This is where you come into play...

Please use the comment field below to offer your suggestions.  Any and all are welcome. 

Thanks in advance!