2019 Preakness Stakes Pick: Laughing Fox

After the Kentucky Derby stewards disqualified me out of cashing about a $1,300 profit two weeks ago, I'm hoping that my handicapping will be as strong and my fate much better for Preakness Day, where below I offer guidance on the late-Pick 4 sequence that culminates in Laughing Fox winning the second leg of the Triple Crown.

May the horse laugh like a fox while passing
all others in the Preakness, while I laugh passing
all others to cash big tickets at the windows.

The full horse-by-horse analysis is available in Wednesday's post, though my confidence in this 20-to-1 shot vs. two days ago is on the rise, after reconsidering my initial assessment that I'd have rather had an inside draw rather than post 11. 

In rewatching the horse's effort in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes in mid-March, it was clear to me that being squeezed at the start, having to check in the final turn and looking somewhat uncomfortable on the rail suggests he'd rather sit wider off the fast early pace on Saturday, and jockey Ricardo Santana can let him relax before a big mid-race move before hopefully lumbering home at a big price.

My selections below key him in the first and second spots of the exacta and trifecta, and on the back end of daily double and Pick 4 selections. I'm also alive to a $142 payout on the Blackeyed Susan and Preakness double; so if Laughing Fox pulls it off, it should be a highly profitable day. 

The bankroll here is slightly less than $100 that I typically assign for the Triple Crown races, but if you're attending Monmouth Park or betting off track and have 20 bucks to burn, I'd say make a $2 win-place-show wager on #11 and consider the $1 "exacta-key box" -- ticket below (a $14 play). Regarding the latter, Laughing Fox would have to finish 1st or 2nd with any of 7 horses.

My play of the day is #4, Mitchell Road, in Race 10, the Gallorette Stakes. I think he'll take the field wire-to-wire, and am also bullish on #6 Gladiator King in Race 11, the Grade 3 Chick Lang, also in front-running fashion. Without further adieu, my Preakness Day late-Pick 4 sequence plays...

Race 10 (Gallorette Stakes): $25 Total

• 50-cent Pick 4: 4 with 6, 7, 8 with 3, 5, 11, 12 with 1, 11 = $12
• $5 daily double: 4 with 6 = $5
• $2 daily double: 4 with 7, 8 = $4
• $1 daily double: 4 with 3 = $1
• $1 daily double: 2, 3, 9 with 6 = $3

Race 11 (Chick Lang Stakes): $13 Total

• $1 trifecta key: 6 over 7, 8 over 1, 3, 5, 7, 8 = $8
• $3 daily double: 6 with 3 = $3
• $1 daily double 7,8 with 3 = $2

Race 12 (Dixie Stakes): $14 Total

• $3 daily double: 3 with 11 = $3
• $2 daily double: 3 with 1 = $2
• $1 daily double: 3 with 1, 4, 5, 7, 12, 13 = $6
• $1 daily double: 5, 11, 12 with 11 = $3

Race 13 (Preakness Stakes): $44 Total

• $1 exacta key box: 11 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 12, 13 = $14
• 50-cent trifecta: 1, 11 over 1, 4, 7, 11 over 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13 = $18
• 50-cent trifecta: 4, 7 over 1, 11 over 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13 = $12