Its Satisfactual

The monkey's off my back as far as Monmouth Park live bankroll tournaments go, having finished second in Saturday's $300 handicapping contest to punch my ticket to NHC26 in Las Vegas in March 2026, along with a nice cash haul that helps to make up for years of futility in these events. 

The key was four-year-old filly Its Satisfactual in the Tampa Bay Downs finale. More on that later.

My last top five result in a Monmouth contest was almost five years ago to the day, a fifth-place finish with an even higher final bankroll than Saturday's $1,185.80. (Players' starting bankroll is $150 in these $300 buy-ins, and the 109 participants had to make at least 10 win, place, and/or show wagers of $15 or more (no cap) on races from Aqueduct, Tampa, and Gulfstream Park).

Something I've written about but have had difficulty practicing, I played with patience, sitting (and starting, success-wise) relatively chilly through the first half of the card and awaiting value as the day progressed. It helped, as 9 of the 15 winners of races 1-5 were favorites. Just two ended off the board. 

I squandered $65 of my bankroll (0-for-4, with one small show-bet score) before hitting the first of three prize-winning wagers. If I recall, the contest leader at that time was barely above $300 -- fairly low when considering it's common to find at least one player closer to four figures on a big early wager. 

Irish Fortune was an incredibly playable first-timer at 19-to-1 in the sixth at Aqueduct, an $80k NY-bred maiden for two year olds. Post 7 wasn't an issue, and I also thought the son of Central Banker's work tab suggested early speed. Jaime Rodriguez quickly seized the lead and never looked back versus the field of 12, pulling away in the stretch for a nearly four-length win to pay $40.02 for a $2 win mutuel. With a $15 minimum win wager, my bankroll improved to $370.30 and into the top five.

I missed on my next four plays, giving back $70 but meeting the contest's 10-bet requirement and still with no one on the leaderboard pulling away. The next three plays were in fairly rapid succession as post positions at the three tracks got tight, with the first in race 8 from Tampa a successful $15 win wager on 8.9-to-1 Litigant from gate 13 in a 12-horse field to run my total to $433.50. 

The next, $100 win on 9.4-to-1 Sunshine Lily in Aqueduct's finale, went kaput though the horse ran decently and finished fourth behind the two favorites. 

With three contest races remaining, a $333.80 bankroll, and a top-two finish still within reach, I bet $60 to win and $40 to show on 16.2-to-1 Its Satisfactual in Tampa's ninth. The field of nine featured a lot of need-the-lead types, which I speculated might favor closers, even though it's hard to be too confident in such types in low-level claimers. 

Something told me, however, that an inside draw (post 2), familial connections (jockey Skyler and trainer Kelly Spanabel), and competent efforts vs. tougher in 2025 at Gulfstream, Colonial Downs, and the Maryland tracks gave Its Satisfactual a shot. Skyler got the four-year-old filly off to a clean start and saved some ground before making an eye-opening wide (e.g., lost ground) move into the homestretch before beating bet-against favorite Life Advice to the finish line by a neck. The win inflated my bankroll to $1,385.80, good for second place with two races left at Gulfstream.

I chickened out by not betting $40 more to win on Its Satisfactual just before the gate opened as contemplated, which cost me a potential first-place finish as my bankroll would have been over $2,000, though that's crying over spilled milk. 

That said, going into the contest finale (Gulfstream, race 11), I sat about $450 each below first and above third place, and decided to bet enough to produce enough bankroll to win yet not fall from second and my fifth lifetime NHC berth. My $100 win-show bet on 7-to-1 Souper Forces lost, but in hindsight it was a seemingly good defensive play on a bet for folks lower on the leaderboard to make hay. The second choice edging out a 9-to-2 also probably helped as I finished $270 above third place.

In the end, it was my best performance ever in a Monmouth Park live-money contest, and I'll be greedy and try again on January 3. 

I went 4-for-14 on wagers, including two significant long-shot overlays, which I've long considered the key to winning in these types of events. I'm more comfortable in mythical $2 win-place formats that align with the NHC but use this post as a reminder that biding time in handicapping contests no matter the format can prove valuable, as also evidenced at NHC25 with high prices winning late at less-played tracks like Turfway Park.

Stay tuned to this space in the months ahead as I turn attention to Vegas in March
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