Alright, he was disqualified after crossing the wire first after a suspect decision, but the moral of the story is to take mine and most peoples' selections with a grain of salt. It's a grueling race to handicap.
Anything can happen in a 20-horse field, and this year I've avoided going down the rabbit hole of excessive handicapping beyond watching select Kentucky Derby prep replays and narrowing down to eight horses capable of finishing in the top three in Saturday's Run for the Roses and reasons why you should consider them in your wagers, ranked in order of preference.
Two potential winners ("A" horses)
#8, So Happy (15-1): Versatility will do this Mark Glatt trainee well. Wins at three distances in four lifetime starts and in different pace scenarios, from blazing to dawdling. Mike Smith has been aboard all four starts and his only loss was in his first race a two turns, yielding late but finishing third. I sense he'll be near the pace and view two-time Derby winner "Money Mike" as an asset. If nothing else, I'll be rooting hard for Glatt, whose wife died abruptly in February at 57 due to heart failure. In this environment, we could all use a feel-good story.
#6, Commandment (6-1): A lot of "experts" are high on Bill Mott trainee Chief Wallabee (see below) but that's recency bias after the Mott-Junior Alvarado 2025 Derby victory. Commandment is better and beat Chief Wallabee head-to-head 2x, including this year's Grade 2 Fountain of Youth (FOY) and Grade 1 Florida Derby. To me, Commandment looks like the perfect stalker who can grind out a win and not have to be right on the pace. Lots of fight in this one. Sense he'll hold his 6-1 morning line, which is great value. The knock is that jockey Luis Saez has yet to ride, as previous winning riders Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat went to other horses. No matter. Saez is a world-class rider and this is a gutsy runner. The knock may be that people tend to be high on Gulfstream Park prep winners annually, but you have to go back to 2013 to find the last FOY-Florida Derby winner dressed in roses (Orb).
Second Tier ("B" horses - some things need to go their way)
#11, Incredibolt (20-1): Very hit-or-miss sort. Two stylish come-from-behind stakes wins in the Street Sense in late October and the Virginia Derby in mid-March. Granted, fields were nothing to write home about, but his late kick in the aforementioned were eye-catching. Riley Mott may have the horse on the rise here for his Derby training debut whereas pops, Bill, has a game horse (Chief Wallabee) that only boasts a maiden victory but will draw a lot of wagering.
#15, Emerging Market (15-1): I'll hate myself, again, after the race ends in giving another promising Chad Brown horse a serious Derby look, but this one can hit the board. Only his third lifetime start after debut maiden win in Tampa, followed by Grade 2 Louisiana Derby win in mid-March. The downside is he outlasted a competitor there that's 30-1 on Saturday and may be closer to 40-1, but Prat stays aboard and appeared to be restraining EM in the early stages before letting lose late to prevail by a head. It's also hard to discount using America's best jockey somewhere on the ticket.
Third Tier ("C" horses - a lot of things need to go their way)
#1, Renegade (4-1): Morning line favorite, which is insane no matter the quality. Rail horses do not and will not win the Derby in the existing 20-horse configuration (see Lookin at Lucky). Rail horses get a little more relief than in the past, but Renegade will have a lot to contend with to make the first turn in one piece. That said, the Irad Ortiz-Todd Pletcher jockey-trainer combo is nothing to sneeze at and they've demolished good fields in prepping for the Derby. I'd like him more with a better draw, and were the speed figures better. So you can have him at 4-1, or 5-1, or 10-1. Not my cup of tea on the win end.
#20, Fulleffort (20-1): Saturday will be this Brad Cox trainee's first race on dirt, but he's continually improved and is a mere four lengths from having a perfect 7-for-7 record on turf and synthetic. I sense people may fall asleep on this one from the wide post but here's another stalker/closer type who might be heard from late for minor awards and could spice up payouts as an overlay.
#5, Right to Party (30-1): I typically hate Aqueduct horses in the Derby but hear me out on why he can hit the board. After being squeezed badly from the gate in February's one-turn Gotham, the horse made up much ground to finish a determined third. Next out, he got going a little too late but ran like gangbusters to finish second in the Wood Memorial on April 4 and would have won were the race two furlongs longer. Again, not normally my cup of tea and with a relatively inexperienced rider vs. the rest of the jockeys on Saturday but believe the Derby distance is conducive to his running style.
#12, Chief Wallabee (8-1): I'm using him at the bottom of my trifecta and see third as ceiling. Maybe adding blinkers on Saturday is the winning recipe, but I'm not a huge fan of horses unable (to this point) to outduel foes in the stretch. It happened twice here, which is cause for concern, though like others I respect the connections. Think Alydar.
NJ Horseplayer's Ill-Fated Trifecta Ticket
Perhaps I'd serve society better making an $18 donation to charity but here's my structure, consistent with the above ABC analysis: 6, 8 with 6, 8, 11, 15 with 1, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 15, 20.
Caveat emptor as the legendary Mike Brady once advised his son Greg.
No comments:
Post a Comment