Saving Ground Matters

Close but no cigar with my first "bad-trip horse" result yesterday as Sky Low Low was game in defeat, finishing third by three-quarters of a length in the finale at Saratoga. 

Especially in such a low-level race ($50k maiden claiming), if ever there was a case to be made that (a) getting an early lead or, mostly pertinently in the case of Sky Low Low, (b) saving ground is critical, yesterday's race 10 is proof. Check the chart.

A bit of rudimentary photographic evidence before I log into my real work...and proof why winner Intothewilderness' jockey Jose Ortiz wins 20%+ of his races whereas Sky Low Low's Katie Davis wins at 5%. (BTW, runner-up Italianne, put in a great spot throughout - forwardly place, saved ground along the rail - was ridden by Irad Ortiz, another 20%+ winner.)

Sky Low Low got a cleaner trip yesterday in terms of avoiding trouble found in her race prior, but the difference between third and winning, and less than one length, was Davis going wide and Ortiz saving ground for a late rail burst. 

Here are four screenshots at various parts of the race. 

The first is in the backstretch with Sky Low Low (#10) already at least six wide and Intothewilderness dead last but within striking distance, avoiding issues, and closer to the rail.

The second is going into the second turn. Again, #10 widest and #8 about the skim the rail.

Below, they're turning for home. Sky Low Low made a huge rush (could classify as a "huge middle move") yet still outside while Intothewilderness seizes the rail and rushes by three tired foes; best setup imaginable for a turf closer.

The finish line. Self explanatory.

The moral is that, especially at the lowest levels on turf where fractions matter, Sky Low Low wasted so much ground relative to the top two finishers that it cost the horse a win in its 11th start. 

As a handicapper, you can only put in the work. I had identified a troubled-trip horse capable of winning next out, which was the case here at almost 14-1. 

The horse ran a "winning race" but still finished third. 

Bettors were astute. The horse went off more than 2x its morning line.

Hence, zero return on a notional $2 win-place wager + a cash wager. 

This afternoon we'll see how things go for Ed Charles (race 6) and Bottas (race 9) - two horses (see prior post) I'm more bullish about than Sky Low Low and where my real wagers will be higher. 

Best of luck to anyone playing!