Friday, March 18, 2011

Ready for Saturday's simulcast contest at Monmouth

The most difficult task in preparing for the Simulcast Series Challenge events at Monmouth Park is deciphering where I can find good prices (at least 4-to-1 or greater, in my opinion) in 10 races of the 33 races from Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Tampa Downs.  I have made some notes on all but the final five races on the Gulfstream card at this point but have yet to find anything that stands out at this point, but here are some of my early considerations:
  • Aqueduct: Wadi Suki @ 6-1 in Race 1, Crepe Au Sucre in Race 5 @ 5-1 and Wild About Sonny @ 12-1 in Race 9
  • Tampa: L.D.'s Galaxy @ 10-1 in Race 5, Natalicat @ 4-1 in Race 7 and Vanquisher @ 12-1 in Race 9; I am almost sure to play L.D., considering the early speed in this $16k claimer going 1-mile on the turf, but the few who visit here can attest that I often change at the window
  • Gulfstream: Broken Sound @ 8-1 in Race 1 and Refugio @ 8-1 in Race 2; otherwise, races 3-6 appear wide open, though I see some nice price plays
Patience is a virtue in any live-money contest where it is up to the handicapper to budget the bankroll. In these events, players start with $100 and are limited to win, place, show or any combination thereof and must wagers on at least 10 races (i.e., think 10 win bets of $10 each, though players can make their first wager the full $100 on a single horse) in order to qualify for prize money and a shot at the NHC; the Top 10 finishers win prize money, while the Top 15 advance to the April 9 play-in for 2 NHC seats. 

Saturday, I expect to have a good idea about how good my homework was, considering I anticipate being active in three races early in the card (before 1:30 p.m.) before keeping my powder dry until the Tampa mid-card.  I need to remember this Saturday as the contest progresses, rather than taking flyers in races where I have less conviction about a particular horse, which cost me in SSC#1 when some of my "accurate" picks later in the card proved their merit and won. 

If anyone participating at Monmouth on Saturday wants to stop by and say "hello," you'll find me in the restaurant near the window facing the track, seated across from Terry from RedRockOrBust, who no doubt will be looking at my selections desperate for a winner and wishes he had my good looks. I hope to blog during Saturday's event, and wish everyone involved the best of luck with their handicapping. 

And I'm hoping that my form from the Santa Anita "for fun" contest will extend to Saturday, after picking 16-1 and 10-1 winners in two of the last three days (Preamble in Sunday's contest race and Major Art in Friday's 1-mile event on the Del Mar turf), which got me closer to break-even after a horrific February. 


  1. "near the window facing the track, seated across from Terry from RedRockOrBust, who no doubt will be looking at my selections desperate for a winner and wishes he had my good looks" ---- You two are the ones I follow for the most betting AND entertainment action......Poor Terry is sitting under a sign that say "0 - 25", I hope he at least hit the board this time at Monmouth!! He's already threatened to quit till summer time......and do your homework and very well and I sure laugh when you get all hyped up over a 43 - 1 horse or higher.......but I've seen you at all the "Night Class" on Mondays via your questions......I think a few little things, in "Night Class", race fans can pick and use their toolbox to make smarter betting decisions. I can only hope to meet both of you at Red Rock ;) Good luck on your upcoming Simo's....

  2. I appreciate your kind words, Donna. It's all about having some fun and busting some chops while at it, and for me it's a great stress relief from a busy life, as I'm sure it is for you. I have learned A LOT from Terry in my short time of participating in contests, and he's a great handicapper notwithstanding the 0-25. Trust me, quitting is not an option. And I hope to see YOU at Red Rock.