|Mmm...Nothing like the |
smell of recycled material
in the morning
See, without any studying, I was already an idiot en route to missing the winner in the 2012 Run for the Roses, also considering my hair-brained logic that a back-to-back win would be impossible for just about anyone. Oh, wait, there's that Calvin Borel guy...oops.
Instead, over lunch, NJ Horseplayer did some unscientific research on synthetic form translating to the Kentucky Derby, only to find that since Turfway Park became the first U.S. thoroughbred track to install a synthetic surface in 2005, five horses coming out of preps run on synthetic just before the Derby have finished in the top three (year, name, Kentucky Derby finish and site of prior prep race).
- 2011: Animal Kingdom (1st, Turfway Park)
- 2010: Paddy O'Prado (3rd, Keeneland)
- 2009: Pioneer of the Nile (2nd, Santa Anita; synthetic until 2010, if memory serves)
- 2008: No top-three synthetic finishers
- 2007: Street Sense (1st, Keeneland), Hard Spun (2nd, Turfway)
- The last year NJ Horseplayer hit a Derby Wager...win, exacta and trifecta
Perhaps some other more-credible, or accurate, source out there -- i.e. DRF, Equibase -- has already written about synthetic data, but in simple terms, a 33% in-the-money clip on horses coming off of preps on synthetic (with two Derby champions) is noteworthy in considering Kentucky Derby wagers.
So, before making bold predictions, and guiding the NJ Horseplayer community on shoe-in bests against (i.e. pick against anything we recommend), we're going to take another look at the likes of Went the Day Well and Daddy Nose Best (another at 15-to-1), which have lines across their numbers (i.e. throwaways) on our Derby past performances at present.
(Note to self: scribble in the margins of the PP in pencil, not pen.)