A win by Hog Creek Hustle and I may not care much who wins the Belmont.
About two-thirds of my bets are connected to Race 8, a 7-furlong sprint featuring 11 runners in what, to me, looks like a wide open race. Hog Creek Hustle plays prominently, as I think his runner-up finish in the Pat Day Mile -- a race where I made Mr. Money my pick of Kentucky Derby day -- exemplified this horse relishes one-turn races, and I think Mr. Money's going to prove better than today's runners.
Hog Creek Hustle's connections took a shot at the Kentucky Derby trail, finishing a game and late-running second to Preakness Stakes winner War of Will in the Grade 3 LeComte in mid-January before another similar fourth-place run in the Grade 2 Risen Star. His jockey in those two races (Florent Geroux) is more of a sit-and-pounce type, whereas today the horse reunites with southeastern-based rider Corey Lanerie, who rode him to a pair of two-year-old victories and more forwardly so in last month's second-place Pat Day Mile. To me, the cutback to seven furlongs is perfect, and I'm willing to stake my success this afternoon to #8 Hog Creek Hustle. I'll use him prominently, with #1 Honest Mischief and #11 Wendell Fog in small "saver" tickets.
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| When talking Hogs on Belmont Day, it starts and ends with our most beloved Hogg |
Race 9, the Metropolitan Handicap, is the real feature today -- best race on the card, though I'm not as enamored with some of the runners. I think the winner comes from the inside three posts, and I landed on 6-to-1 Coal Front (#1), who isn't the sturdiest horse (been sidelined several times, including a 14-month layoff from Sept. 2017-Nov. 2018), but he's 3-of-3 since, including wins at three distinct distances (7 furlongs, 1 mile and a mile-and-a-sixteenth). I think he's going to hold his morning-line odds, and if he wins he'll spice up multi-race-wager payouts. I'm exclusively playing two Pick 3's starting with this race, one with my stronger picks and the other spreading out a bit more for coverage.
I'm going back to the well as I did on Derby Day with #8 Bricks and Mortar in the turf feature -- Race 10, the Manhattan. He'll be a single on most of my tickets, with #1 Raging Bull in my savers. The scratch of front-runner Epical is significant, in my opinion, and could entice second-choice, #10 Channel Marker (9-2), to forge to the front and try to win it on the lead and set slow fractions, in essence trying to lull Bricks and Mortar to sleep. Yet that strategy didn't work in the Turf Classic on Derby Day, and I think it won't here on a turf course that should play a bit firm. Bricks and Mortar is a bit of a "free square" in my Pick 3 and 4 tickets, so if he doesn't win many of my bets will be shot.
Unless I score something nice with my Race 8 daily doubles and trifecta wagers, I'm going light on the Belmont, since Tax is a tepid win selection for me -- the opposite of my bullish sentiment toward Maximum Security in the Kentucky Derby, and my analysis as War of Will as best in the Preakness. I will only play a small exacta and trifecta, and will mainly increase the increment a bit if I score decently on Race 8-10 wagers.
Good luck to everyone playing this afternoon on what's a gorgeous day for the Belmont Stakes!
2019 Belmont Stakes Day Wagers ($97 Bankroll)
Race 8, Woody Stephens Stakes, 7 furlongs on dirt (4:04 p.m. ET post) = $66 Total
[Wager with dollar value, selection = total out-of-pocket cost]
$4 daily double: 8 with 1 = $4
$1 daily double: 8 with ALL = $9
$1 daily double: 1 with 1, 2, 3, 9 = $4 (saver ticket)
$1 daily double: 11 with 1, 2, 3 = $3 (saver ticket)
50-cent trifecta: 8 with 1, 11 with 1, 4, 6, 9, 11 = $4
50-cent trifecta: 1, 11 with 8 with 1, 4, 6, 9, 11 = $4
50-cent trifecta: 1, 4, 6, 9, 11 with 1, 4, 6, 9, 11 with 8 = $10
50-cent Pick 4 (my "Hog" single): 8 with 1, 2, 3, 7, 9 with 1, 8 with 4, 6, 9, 10 = $20
50-cent Pick 4 (first saver ticket): 1, 4, 6, 9, 11 with 1 with 8 with 4, 6 = $5
50-cent Pick 4 (second saver): 1 with 1, 2, 3 with 8 with 4, 6 = $3
Race 9, Metropolitan Handicap, 1 mile on dirt (4:46 p.m. ET post) = $14 Total
$3 Pick 3: 1 with 8 with 4, 6 = $6
$1 Pick 3: 1 with 1, 8 with 4, 6, 9, 10 = $8
Race 10, Manhattan Stakes, 1.25 mile on turf (5:36 p.m. ET post) = $8 Total
$3 daily double: 8 with 4 = $6
$1 daily double: 8 with 6 = $1
$1 daily double: 1 with 4, 6, 9, 10 = $4
Race 11, Belmont Stakes, 1.5 mile on dirt (6:37 p.m. ET post) = $9 Total
$1 exacta key box: 4 with 6, 9, 10 = $6
50-cent trifecta: 4 with 6, 9, 10 with 6, 9, 10 = $3
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