I scratched out a positive 1.4% ROI from August 5 through Travers weekend, as noted on August 31, based on mythical $2 win-place wagers on 20 runners that produced $1.08 of profit on $80 bet.
Nothing to write home about, but still a positive return, which I'll take.
For the 7 of 20 bad-trippers that hit the board, off odds averaged 11.5% below their morning lines, signaling sharp handicappers also are doing their homework on bad trips, and finding value is difficult at Saratoga.
Another theory I wrote about which proved accurate, based on the data, was a sort of "randomness" to closing week outcomes...or verification that my handicapping during that week is typically bad. Just 1 of 10 bad-trippers (Market Timing) won their race that week, while one finished second with, you guessed it, another suspect trip wide on the track (Sky Low Low; see Saving Ground Matters).
Including bad-trippers during closing week would have turned my ROI to -20%.
It was a fun exercise, and my Saratoga work proved productive in registering a Top 20 finish and $2,500 score in the Horse Tourneys Surf and Spa tournement. So, in sum, a profitable summer!
I'll use this exercise in future Saratoga meets as I believe it's a useful tool.
