It's time to turn the page after an uncompetitive set of Kentucky Derby selections and turn attention to the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Of course it won't be captured in 2025 with Derby winner Sovereignty passing on the Preakness.
Yet it gives nine other horses the opportunity for a significant resume-builder.
Clever Again gets the nod over Derby runner-up Journalism and Sandman on Saturday, and I'll use all three in the Black-Eyed Susan-Preakness daily doubles with 15-1 Princess Aliyah in Friday's feature.
[Updated on Thursday night with thoughts on Saturday's Pick 6 sequence finishing with the Preakness.]
Preakness Stakes
8. Clever Again (5-1): Connections were patient after 2nd-place debut at Keeneland last April. Stayed off the track for 10 months before maiden-breaker in late February at Oaklawn, then followed that up with another front-running win in the $200k non-graded Hot Springs Stakes. Yet that race was fairly productive, with the second and third finishers finishing third and fifth, respectively, in the Pat Day Mile on Derby day and fourth-place Max Got Excited winning a stake at Oaklawn on May 2. Advantageous post outside of slow-starting Sandman is a plus. It's a clear hike facing three Derby finishers but I sense this son of American Pharoah can step forward and trainer Steve Asmussen has a live long-shot with speed and stamina.
2. Journalism (8-5): Similar to the Kentucky Derby where he finished second, the deserving favorite. Jockey Umberto Rispoli rode a great Derby. Guiding Journalism toward the rail into the first turn after some early jostling. Journalism looked far more comfortable in the backstretch. Slingshot move into the far turn and passed everyone but simply got beat late by Sovereignty. Third-place finisher Baeza's effort flatters Journalism more in this field. Question is whether that effort took too much out of Journalism; two-week turnaround is difficult but we'll assume he's sound.
7. Sandman (4-1): Deep closer who finished seventh in the Derby after no early running. I thought his late-race effort was enough to merit Preakness winner consideration and that he shied some when between foes in the stretch, potentially costing him 1-2 placements. Preakness pace needs to be testy, so the question becomes whether it will be hot enough to benefit Sandman as it did in winning the Arkansas Derby as that field fell apart after a 45.2-second first half mile. That's the hope here. There's quick starters signed on but I'm not sure the early pace is guns ablaze.
6. River Thames (9-2): He'll be a popular pick because, on paper, he lost to Derby champ Sovereignty by just a neck in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth (FoY). Yet peel the onion and it looks like he's not particularly fast, nor does he seem to like kickback. In the FoY and subsequent Grade 1 Bluegrass in April, both jockeys gave up their rail spots and moved River Thames a few paths wide of the frontrunner, losing valuable ground. I'm not sure River Thames so much passed Neoequos (13th in the Derby) in the FoY as that foe faded. From there it looked like smooth sailing to victory before Sovereignty gunned him down to the short first-wire finish. Had Gulfstream used the usual finish line further down the track, it's a 4-5 length loss. Then when asked in the Bluegrass to move from a stalking third, River Thames ran evenly and never looked the winner. Oddsmaker clearly giving a Preakness nod to trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz , but to me minor awards the ceiling.
9. Gosger (20-1): Almost looked more professional in his second-place debut at Gulfstream in mid-December coming off the pace than he did in breaking his maiden in February, where he seemed to be tiring late. Stepped forward from that to win a soft Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in April (the second-place finisher, Bracket Buster, finished 7th in his next out vs allowance company) but it's notable achievement in his third start. Still looks green to me from replay watching but may hit the board. Expect midpack start and maybe passes the faders.
1. Goal Oriented (6-1): There's no other reason this horse is as low as 6-1 beyond trainer Bob Baffert. It's a short price for a runner making his third lifetime start and comes out of an allowance win (the race including the aforementioned Bracket Buster). Baffert jumping 4-5 classes is a bullish signal that Goal Oriented can step forward, but I'm inclined to put him a few pegs below Gosger. Great trainer-jockey (Flavian Prat) combo isn't enough for me to bite on this big a class hike.
5. Pay Billy (20-1): Maryland-based runner who got into the Preakness by virtue of a semi-controversial and not-so-impressive win in the Tesio at Laurel Park in April. He and another foe almost took out a horse going into the first turn yet wasn't DQ'd and had to hang on for dear life to beat a 22-1 shot to the finish. This is the equivalent of Monmouth Park giving local horses entry to the Haskell by winning smaller stakes. Nice raffle ticket for sure. Maybe an early factor but not a Grade 1 win contender.
3. American Promise (15-1): Lower-echelon distance horse who got a good ride in the Derby and was overbet down to 12-1 but finished 16th of 19. Zero excuse that day as jockey Nik Juarez saved ground and got his horse toward the lead in the backstretch before AP dropped anchor and showed he isn't Triple Crown quality. Virginia Derby prep in March was over-flattering (beat 17th-place Kentucky Derby finisher Render Judgement that day). Figure they'll wing it toward the front end again at Pimlico and cross fingers the horse gets brave and no one matches. Not my type.
4. Heart of Honor (12-1): New shooter who enters off a second-place finish in the UAE Derby to Admire Daytona, who finished dead last in the Kentucky Derby. Not touching this one with your money as Dubai shippers continue to disappoint in Triple Crowns and will be off the board here.
Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
The race, set to go off at 5:44 p.m. ET on Friday, has no one that belongs in the same conversation as Kentucky Oaks winner Good Cheer.
That's why it's worth taking a chance on long-shots Princess Aliyah and Reply.
One boasts a notable stakes win and the other seems like an up-and-comer.
We'll try to beat the morning-line favorites.
2. Princess Aliyah (15-1): Consider upset prospect. Real grinder that should benefit from a return to two turns. Two races back on April 19, she sat just off the pace and wore them down in the stretch to win the Valley of the Vapors Stakes at Oaklawn at 8-1. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas tried her two weeks later in the 8 Belles (Grade 2) on Kentucky Oaks day but the cutback to seven-eighths of a mile and one turn was a detriment. Fractions were blistering and Princess Aliyah kept up a bit but faded about halfway. It looks like a toss, and a possible drop in class versus this field. Career-best speed figure is also tops. If Nik Juarez works out a clean break and engages her early, bombs away!
7. Reply (8-1): Local horse with only two lifetime starts including a game second in the Weber City Miss at Laurel Park in mid-April. It's hard to see a horse this inexperienced winning but trainer Brittany Russell has 9 wins, 1 second, and 1 third with 15 starters in the past 14 days per Equibase, and Irad Ortiz rides for Repole Stables. Upside potential is there.
4. Runnin N Gunnin (5-2): Vulnerable favorite. Outperformed Princess Aliyah by 3.5 lengths in the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn in March but never competed with the top two, finishing third by almost 10 lengths. Wins in New Mexico, Texas, and Indiana flatter but those were against soft competition. In her other four races, losses were between 6-19 lengths. Not buying at this price, especially with zero apparent early speed and having to rely on a contested pace where foes melt down. Probably hits the board and will use underneath Princess Aliyah and Reply.
5. Kinzie Queen (10-1): Also-ran in the Fantasy, finishing fifth in her only graded stake. She's 2-for-12 lifetime, mostly against optional-claimers. Rider change to Derby winning jockey Junior Alvarado could be a plus considering Kinzie Queen's closing style, though I sense we're looking at minor-awards ceiling. Not sure how she does, too, off of Lasix medication.
8. Amarth (4-1): Faded late at 23-1 in the Busher Stakes after a big sweeping move into the stretch, where it looked like she was a shoe-in winner before dropping anchor. Is 0-for-3 as a three-year old. Two sharp workouts, but seems to lack stamina, and adding distance in the Black-Eyed Susan raises doubt.
6. Paris Lily (8-1): Held sway over Liam in the Dust in an optional claimer at Keeneland in April, gunning to the lead and going wire-to-wire for a win in the slop. This is another one with two low-rung wins. If anything, front-running tactic could prove beneficial. Interestingly, her best race may have been on debut in late September, where she finished a game fourth after a brutally troubled trip into the far turn; fell back over a dozen lengths, settled, and rallied. May need more experience.
3. Margie's Intention (3-1): Beyond the trainer change to Brad Cox, why is she the second choice? Louisiana-bred who hasn't faced open company in five starts, boasts maiden and allowance wins, and ran one-paced seconds in two state-bred stakes. Not a great field here, nor resume, so a Grade 2 win is a lot to ask. I'll gladly fund the post-race blood test if she wins dominantly.
9. Moon Cache (20-1): Ran with late interest to finish third behind Reply in the Weber City Miss, but her two wins in eight starts were against claimers. Not a factor.
1. Liam in the Dust (6-1): Something's amiss. In this gal's 3-year-old debut (Busher) at Aqueduct in March, it looked like she was standing still when passed by Amarth nearing the stretch, then ran a one-paced second to Paris Lily in the optional claimer noted above. A potentially talented horse in need of a long breather. Not touching.
Thoughts on the Preakness Pick 6 Sequence
Race 8 - $150,000 Chick Lange Stakes, 6 furlongs on dirt, 2:48 p.m. ET: The race goes through #8 One Nine Hundred (7-2), who has yet to face winners in his fourth lifetime start but on debut came close to beating stakes winner T Kraft and in his second start finished second to Lafayette Stakes winner Colloquial, who looks like a rising star. The question, like with a lot of these, is whether he can run without Lasix for the first time. I'll take my chances and use him with #7 Faster Gator (6-1), who battled multiple stakes winner Mo Plex hard in the Bayshore in mid-April, sharp-looking two-time winner #3 Ancient World (6-1), and #4 Normandy Coast (12-1). If playing the Pick 6, consider all four.
Race 9 - $125,000 Jim McKay Turf Sprint, 5 furlongs on turf, 3:30 p.m. ET: The top two win prospects are #6 Coppola (2-1) and #4 Witty (10-1). They're a contrast in styles, with the former a lightning bolt from the gate and the latter a deep closer. My only hesitation in making Witty the top pick is that he seems to perform better at 5.5 furlongs and may need that extra sixteenth of a mile to be a winner. If Witty holds around his 10-1 morning line, I'll make a sizeable win bet. Else exactas with Coppola, who relishes the distance (six wins and 10-for-21 in the money) including stakes wins at this level. To me, any horse that can finish a game fourth of 12 in a prominent Grade 1 (Jaipur in June 2024) is legit. Might be tough as a win bet, though, if bet down closer to even money. I'll also use #5 Determined Kingdom (4-1) and #9 Fore Harp (5-1) in my Pick 5.
Race 10 - $100,000 Sir Barton Stakes, mile and a sixteenth on dirt, 4:11 p.m. ET: I didn't love anyone in this field, but I'll go with 9-5 favorite #6 Invictus as a multirace-wager single in a field that doesn't knock my socks off. There's a lot to dislike about the favorite, namely that he just broke his maiden on April 8 and had to wait nine months to make that second lifetime start (tried as a 2-year-old at Saratoga last July and finished a well beaten 7th of 10). Winstar Farms thought enough of him to spend $1.2 million at the Keeneland September 2023 yearling sale, so with that sort of investment, patience is understandable in light of a longer-term ownership view. If you watch the replay of his recent win, he broke from the gate in a 7-furlong race like a shot, then settled nicely into a stalking spot before prompting was needed in the stretch to get him to grab the lead and win by 2.5 lengths. Still looked somewhat green in the lane, unsure of which lead to be on, but just before the wire you could see a shift to the proper lead and he exploded a bit. I sense this is a horse on the up, gaining racing intelligence, and will appreciate two turns...and frankly isn't facing the stiffest of competition here. Second choice #1 Crudo (5-2) is another trying winners for the first time, and his debut win (at Keeneland in April, like Invictus') was a lot slower by comparison. Third-choice #7 Hymn (4-1) has a shot, having run competitively 2x at two turns. I'll roll the bones with Invictus.
Race 11 - $100,000 James W. Murray Stakes, 1 mile on turf, 4:53 p.m. ET: This is the second consecutive race where I'm singling a horse in my multirace exotics. #5 End of Romance (9-2) is meant for turf. A game third in the $250,000 Rushaway Stakes on the Turfway Park synthetic in his 3-year-old debut in March, then a late-rushing fifth on turf in a paceless Woodhaven at Aqueduct in April. That closing kick into slow fractions, and a favorable rider change to John Velazquez, should help. I sense the morning line may be too high, with trainer Graham Motion's other horse in the race, #6 Soleil Volant, installed as 7-2 second choice and unable to win in easier spots, so I'm inclined to dismiss. Race favorite (5-2) #7 Reagan's Wit ran second and fourth in his 2025 stakes yet may be overbet. The value is with End of Romance. If for some reason the race is moved to dirt, keep tabs on #4 Barbadian Runner (12-1), who has two overnight stakes wins on the main track; just doesn't look like a turf horse.
Race 12 - $250,000 Grade 3 Dinner Party Stakes, mile and an eighth on turf, 5:52 p.m. ET: This is the most competitive race in the sequence, with six of 13 runners having a shot and #4 Neat (8-1) getting the nod over #6 Balnikhov (9-2) and #13 Trikari (5-2). Pace sets up well for a tactical stalker-closer like Neat to capitalize. He's a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed contestant and is 6-for-12 lifetime on the turf. Trikari gets the outside draw and also gets a great setup, but his last three races give me pause to support with a win bet at short odds. Balnikhov looks to defend his title and is capable of closing fast into slow fractions, which is something I often favor when handicapping turf races. Also keep an eye on #3 Signator (8-1), #8 Crystal Quest (10-1) and #10 Fort Washington (5-1) as contenders.
Race 13 - $2 million Preakness Stakes, mile and three-sixteenths on dirt, 7:01 p.m. ET: As noted exhaustively above, my top three are #8 Clever Again (5-1), #2 Journalism (8-5), and #7 Sandman, so nothing scientific. All three will be in my Pick 5 wagers.
Preakness Pick 5 (50-cent base), races 9-13, total cost $18 (4x1x1x3x3): For me, the sequence isn't ridiculously appealing, so I'll hope to be right consecutively in races 10-11 and spread some elsewhere.
- Race 9: 4, 5, 6, 9
- Race 10: 6
- Race 11: 5 (if switched to dirt, will use 4 and 8)
- Race 12: 4 6 13
- Race 13: 2 7 8
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