Belmont Pick: Sovereignty

After attending the Preakness for the first time to see Old Hilltop before its sorely needed renovation, I'm questioning my sanity a bit going against favored Journalism in the Belmont. 

Preakness view

Journalism's win in the second leg of the 2025 Triple Crown was one of the best individual efforts witnessed in person, and no doubt his runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby was admirable.

Yet with Derby winner Sovereignty trading at 5-1 as of 7:15 p.m. ET in Friday's advanced wagering, he's too intriguing to pass as such an overlay versus his 2-1 morning line and will be my win bet. 

The 8-horse field expected to enter the starting gate for the second Belmont at Saratoga is top heavy, with the winner likely among Journalism and Sovereignty but bettors high also on Baeza (third in the Derby).

Please see my quick thoughts on each below. 

Note, too, that Saratoga took a lot of rain on Friday, producing a muddy main track and yielding turf, so check back in by noon on Saturday for key plays on the undercard once I have a better feel for track conditions and scratches. [SATURDAY UPDATE: Belmont Stakes field intact, but races 9 and 12 have been cancelled, others originally carded for turf are switched to the main track, and Saratoga is listed as sloppy; hence no big undercard suggestions.]

2025 Belmont Stakes Field

2. Sovereignty (2-1): Derby champ passing on the Preakness was a disappointment but trainer Bill Mott protected the horse for this spot and I think capitalizes. Sovereignty's two-year-old debut was at Saratoga last August and a good learning experience, while showing he's not averse to the track. Proven at any distance, the 2-furlong cutback from Belmont's downstate 12-furlong configuration is a plus. Wins on dry or sloppy tracks as seen in the Derby and I expect is fit and will be running late. Your 2025 winner.

7. Journalism (8-5): Again, ran brilliantly in the Preakness; glad I decided the night before to grab a ticket on the apron near where he was jammed between horses before exploding to catch Gosger at the wire. But let's be real, the field was midling at best and he had to grind to beat almost a 20-1 shot. Price will be too short for my liking as a win bet but will hit the board.

4. Uncaged (30-1): One of trainer Todd Pletcher's two entrants and in early betting the longest shot at 25-1 but he's 2-for-2 on muddy surfaces, both from off the pace in blazingly fast races and including his debut win at Saratoga last August 3. Ran an awful sixth of nine in the Peter Pan on May 10 off of Lasix, which he'll run without again on Saturday, but I like the horse-for-course (of sorts) angle to spice up prospective payouts if one of the top two wins. Using in the trifecta and maybe exacta if one of the favorites has an off performance. 

6. Baeza (4-1): Early action signals he'll be too overbet for me as a win prop, nor am I enamored that he's 0-for-4 outside the maiden ranks. Uncaged at least has a $100,000 allowance win. I won't dismiss Baeza's Derby effort but sense bettor overenthusiam that hurts his betting odds. Too short if 3-1.

5. Crudo (15-1): The second Pletcher horse and on paper the more logical. Dominated the Sir Barton at Pimlico on Preakness Day but the upgrade from restricted stakes to Grade 1 is dubious. If speed holds up on a wet track on Saturday, I'd elevate his chances to hit the board yet still not win. John Velazquez has been riding lights out this week though I sense this horse (owned by Bobby Flay) is a cut below.

3. Rodriguez (6-1): Bob Baffert trainee who shipped to New York to win the Wood Memorial in April, which is arguably one of the worst Derby preps on the calendar. Finished a distant third to Journalism in the San Felipe in California on March 1 but beat Baeza head-to-head in early January. You'll hear his name a bit early with Crudo but isn't a player. Speed and fade. Pass.

1. Hill Road (10-1): It's perhaps idiotic to go against hometown trainer Chad Brown yet I wonder if he's fast enough to hit the board. Enters off a come-from-behind Grade 3 win in a sluggish Peter Pan at Aqueduct but to me he faced better in the Tampa Bay Derby in March and ran a flat and distant third. If Brown's horse wins, wouldn't be the first time he beat me as a bettor.

8. Heart of Honor (30-1): Bad fifth in the Preakness and again an also-ran. I hope the connections at least enjoy a great meal at Pennell's.