Two days after I attended the 2025 Preakness Stakes, host track Pimlico started a massive renovation.
As a result, this year's rendition of the second leg of the Triple Crown moves to Laurel Park, a nice yet smaller track about a half hour from Baltimore and where attendance is capped at less than 5,000. It's not designed to host an event this big, but will at least for this season.
I've been there a handful of times but have no inside dirt (nor turf), though Saturday's card is appealing, especially for its depth in the 2026 Preakness Stakes (7 p.m.).
That said, I've narrowed the 14-horse field down to two potential winners - Chip Honcho and Ocelli.
Beyond that, I've given reasons below for tossing most runners from win probability yet identified a number that readers could key to spice up exactas and trifectas.
My goal, outside of enjoying Kane Sneak Box at Boyle's in Monmouth Beach as a watching site and following that with a nice dinner in the area, will be to build on a positive Derby Weekend ROI after nailing Always a Runner in the Oaks.
#6, Chip Honcho (5-1): This Steve Asmussen trainee qualified and was in training for the Kentucky Derby but the connections pointed instead to the Preakness. It makes sense considering a much softer field and about two months of rest and training since a disappointing fifth in the Louisiana Derby; his works have been on a consistent schedule, so health isn't a concern. I like his front-running style and post position outside of early runner Taj Mahal. What tempers my enthusiasm is that he wilted late to finish second in the Risen Star after being uncontested on the lead on a track where no one seemed to gain. So maybe it was a speed-favoring oval that afternoon. If Laurel Park is tricked up and speed holds, Chip Honcho is dangerous, especially with Jose Ortiz riding. Recall that Ortiz won the Kentucky Derby and also spent the winter riding at Fair Grounds for the likes of Asmussen, so I sense he hired the best jockey option. Dangerous win prospect.
#2, Ocelli (6-1): Closer who finished an impressive third in the Kentucky Derby with a reserved early ride and wide charge into the stretch. Breaking from post 2 instead of post 17 like in the Derby is a benefit as presumably jockey Tyler Gaffalione can sit along the rail and save Ocelli for another late run. It remains a question, however, whether this horse wants to win, considering his 0-6 lifetime record. Hard seeing a maiden winning the Preakness two weeks after a tiring Derby effort, but this field's nothing stellar, so why not.
#8, Bull by the Horns (30-1): Probably a turf or synthetic horse, and not particularly fast based on speed figures, but he's got decent late kick and could get a minor award. Won the lower-level Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park on March 21 and beat Trendsetter, who easily beat The Hell We Did (see below) from off the pace in the Bluegrass Stakes. Ceiling is third, but that'd be a good result.
#12, Incredibolt (5-1): I just don't trust jockey Jaime Torres. Incredibolt ran sixth and did nothing wrong in the Kentucky Derby and will compete for favoritism with Iron Honor, but looked to be running in place in the stretch and I'm not sure is a Grade 1 horse. Maybe by default . On pace handicapping, I sense he'll be sitting midpack down the backstretch and within 3-4 lengths of the lead but flatten. It's a lot to ask for a two-week turnaround from the Derby and compete. Not sure it was smart to enter the Preakness, but dangerous if he repeats his Virginia Derby effort. Using in exacta.
#9, Iron Honor (9-2): I bet against in the Wood Memorial as 3-1 favorite and was completely right, based on his uninspiring seventh-place finish. Chad Brown takes the blinkers off his horse and upgrades to Flavien Prat in the saddle, but I'm not sure it's enough. Maybe the Preakness company is so weak that Iron Honor can win, but I'm concerned he won't get this distance and looks like a plodder. I sense he'll be 3-1 favorite on Saturday, which lessens Iron Honor's appeal even further. Third at best.
#1, Taj Mahal (5-1): Any trainer that wins 33% of races, ahem Brittany Russell, needs their barn inspected. That said, this locally based horse is 3-for-3 with gaudy wins including the Tesio Stakes on April 18, which got him into the Preakness. Is he legit? Speed figures suggest he'll compete, but I sense the jump from overnight stakes to Grade 1 company will be a bit much for Taj Mahal to win, though 2 bullet workouts since the Tesio perhaps indicate enough sharpness to use in the trifecta. The history of Tesio winners in the Preakness also is a bearish signal.
#5, Talkin (20-1): Sire Good Magic finished fourth in this race, and there's nothing eye-catching in Talkin's performances leading into the Preakness. He was scrubbed on in the Tampa Derby in March to finish a distant fifth, while his third in the Bluegrass (12 lengths off the winner) in April wasn't impressive either. Punching above his weight class in the Preakness. Pass.
#4, Robusta (30-1): His best to this point was almost stealing the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita in early March at 67-1, but since then he's finished a combined 33 lengths behind the winners of the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby. Early pace factor who'll fade and not hit the board.
#10, Napoleon Solo (8-1): Significant regression since two gaudy wins in New York as a 2-year-old. Finished fifth in both the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial. Will be among the leaders early and fade. Sense he's a sprinter, not a two-turn stakes horse. Unlikely to hit the board unless, as noted for Chip Honcho, the track is tricked up and early speed holds.
#13, Great White (15-1): I can't see this one rocking us through the night. Was running in quicksand before the stretch of the Bluegrass (fifth place, 22 lengths behind) and I suspect isn't a dirt horse, based on three prior races, all on synthetic, including a win in the Battaglia Memorial at Turfway. Perhaps better suited for turf racing. Not using.
#7, The Hell We Did (15-1): Second in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes in April might explain the seemingly enticing odds for this Todd Fincher trainee, but he's got no stamina and speed that pales in comparison with some others in the Preakness. Best of 2 wins was versus allowance (non-winners of two races) company at Sunland Park. Better suited to the Preakness undercard, or a Thursday race.
#11, Corona de Oro (30-1): Jockey John Velasquez gets the mount, but if I had a nickel for everytime someone told me that trainer Dallas Stewart always has live long-shots...
#3, Crupper (30-1): Winner of two low-level races at Oaklawn Park and at awful speed figures to boot has no chance.
#14, Pretty Boy Miah (15-1): Another that doesn't belong. He's never gone more than a mile nor run outside of Aqueduct and last beat claimers. The widest post at Laurel won't help. It's a massive class jump and the horse will be off Lasix. Just not seeing it despite getting one of my favorite jockeys.
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