Saratoga Bad-Trip Horses ROI: 20.9%

A 21% return isn't half bad through my three-week (of five) test of notional $2 win-place bets on horses making starts following races where they had a legitimate excuse for losing (e.g., jockey error). 

As you can see, 4 of 14 were winners, two more finished second, and two finished third. As posted previously, Sky Low Low's bad trip at almost 14-1 cost my ROI substantially, but we move forward.

I plan on reviewing the past two weeks' races for more bad-trip horses to add but have a few entered during the August 26-30 week at Saratoga Race Course.

Here's what's ahead thru Travers Day:

• Madagascar (5-1): Thursday, August 27, Race 6
• Coach Case (8-5): Thursday, August 27, Race 9
• Ah Ca Ira (3-1): Friday, August 28, Race 2
• Ed Charles (15-1): Friday, August 28, Race 6
• Will give another shot after his follow-up clunker a few weeks ago; still young horse
• Whitethorn (10-1): Friday, August 28, Race 8
• Queen of Hawaii (2-1): Saturday, August 29, Race 10

Two Bad Trip Additions from August 12-16 Week

It's getting late in the meet and I'm not certain how many of the horses that ran the week prior will be entered for races before closing day on Monday, September 7, but here's two that experienced what'd I'd consider to be notable issues costing them placement and worth a look next out.

• Miel Et Citron: Sent off at 63-1 for very low-percentage connections but checked a few times during race 3 on August 12, then bottled up but ran late with interest; useful 5.5f sprinter potentially in final week(s) but Douglas Seyler (trainer) is caveat emptor -- 4-for-59 in 2026 with 4 seconds and 4 thirds and has never won more than 8% of races since 2009, and is winless in 10 starts during the current meet. Yet he also trains Ratu Jawa, another bad tripper and longshot who ran a game second last week. Miel ET Citron is 0-for-5 lifetime but speed figures have improved incrementally and was a game sixth in SAR3 on August 12 in a 5.5-furlong turf sprint. Will be boxcar odds again but I'd be willing to use if entered before meet's end. Click horse's name above for the head-on replay; watch #6 wearing the neon pink cap and dotted silks.

• Whatever It Takes: Professional 2YO debut August 14, SAR6, maiden special weight. Watch #2 on the replay link. Bumped a bit before first turn, then slight check/bobble early backstretch, bottled in, made mild 3-wide move into stretch then ran well for third; greener in early stages but improved late race, wheel back during the final week(s).

Big Week Ahead

Last week was fairly quiet on the Saratoga bad-trip circuit, with Gum (+9.08) winning stylishly over Grace of Monaco (-$4) in Wednesday's finale. 

Mrs. NJ Horseplayer and I were in Saratoga but couldn't make it to the track on time to witness in person. Instead, we attended on Thursday (hit the early Pick 4 -- paid a measly $21 on a $4.50 ticket and still couldn't scratch out a profit for the day but had fun dressed up in the BEST Backstretch box) -- and the first half of Friday before heading with friends to Vermont for the rest of the weekend. 

A notional $2 win-place bet on Gum and GoM rendered a $1.08 profit on $8 wagered -- nothing to write home about but still a positive ROI (+26%) and 3-for-7 record during this exercise.

Ratu Jawa wisely scratched at 50-1 from Friday's feature and is among, count 'em, five from my bad trip list that are entered this Thursday and Friday, when I'll be back on track (this time with The Saratogian's Wise Owl and RedRockorBust), and these will be key to my (mis)fortunes this week. I'll use them as keys in multirace wagers and in higher-denomination win-place wagers.

As a reminder (some notes copied from prior posts and observations)...

Thursday, August 20

• Race 2: Hong Kong Phooey (8-1) - "Lower-level sort but trip notes COMPLETELY understated being cut off from gate, checking badly and falling 15 lengths behind in 5.5f off-turf sprint in mud; but horse continued to work and responded to Flavian (Prat) well, miraculous 4th. Is potentially useful as turf or off-turf play." A bit of postscript:
  
  
• Prat rides again for trainer Rudy Rodriguez, 5.5 furlongs on turf, post 7 of 8 
• HKP draws post 7 of 8 and is trying the "non-winners of two lifetime" condition a fifth time but at least fits this group, which includes 3 facing winners a first time and 3 facing winners only a second time. Thursday's start will be HKP's 10th and most were against stiffer competition where the connections overshot the horse's potential. 

• Race 8: River Tay (10-1) - "Dylan Davis had rail throughout on August 2, race 4, kept inside and made bad move trying to pass leader in stretch on rail instead of going to open 2-3 path; cost the horse the race + place where the winner came from the back and easily won; keen horse who is capable, always tries; play back later in meet. Subject to a back trip, jockey's decision."
  
  
• Davis rides again on Thursday for trainer Bruce Brown, 5.5 furlongs on turf, post 4 of 9
• Cutback from 9 furlongs to 5.5 furlongs may confuse, but River Tay is 1-for-2 at this distance and is 5-for-21 lifetime on turf. It's a 9-horse field where none jump out. 
• River Tay also hasn't had a published work since the August 2 race, but I suspect that amount of distance provided enough foundation for Thursday's sprint.
• RT is a closer in a field with enough pace to chase; 10-1 is well worth the gamble.

Friday, August 21

(Will update once odds posted and entries final)

• Race 3: Romala
• Race 8: Ratu Jawa
• Race 10: Coach of the Year

Bosun Win on Sunday Lifts Bad-Trip ROI...and Additions

Of the five "bad-trip" horses I had identified as playable next out at Sarataga this past week, two (Bosun and Bottas) won, two finished a close third (All Star Leigh and Sky Low Low), and one never lifted his feet in his second lifetime start (Ed Charles). 

The net result on the five notional $2 win-place bets ($20 total) recommended here is a 31% ROI.  

Bosun won the finale (replay) Sunday (SAR 11) from slightly off the pace and Bottas (replay) did the same on Friday in similar fashion. Both went off as underlays.

The Week Ahead for Bad Trippers

Mr. and Mrs. NJ Horseplayer are making the trip to Saratoga with friends and to hang with the Wise Owl, and will be on track Thursday and much of Friday. Please drop a line if in the neighborhood.

A few horses that I identified in Maybe I'm Trippin' are entered this week, including Gum (9-2) and a horse I accidently left off the initial list (Grace of Monaco, 20-1) in Wednesday's finale (SAR 9). At the time of writing, I'm inclined to side with the latter second time trying turf and stretching out to a longer distance, but in the spirit of this exercise may notionally play both $2 win-place.  

On Friday, Ratu Jawa is entered in a $200,000 stake (SAR 9) - an enormous jump from allowance for a runner with one lifetime victory. 

I'll update the page if others are entered on Sunday (not yet available).

Additions to the Bad Trippers List

Again, with rudimentary notes from my Equibase stable.

Grace of Monaco: July 12, SAR5, 3rd LT start, 1x turf; deep field, was cut off then boxed in from gate, and then ran next 4 furlongs under complete hammer lock, was hemmed in on rail, never found opening, checked a few times, but made a nice shift out 1f from finish and passed a few; sense there's talent and may like turf, willing to give a shot next out. 

Market Timing: Stuck on rail SAR7 on August 6, under relative hammer lock most of SAR7 August 6, lightly raced (3x), looks good enough to step forward w/better luck.

Mo Misery: Chart understates trouble of hitting gate, moving 2-3x into first turn and seemingly almost tossing Junior Alvarado, who going into the first turn was bounced around by his horse, even having to sit on the saddle at one point, and sizeable check plus second smaller one in stretch but ran gangbusters late for third once free; two prior were dirt sprint so maybe turf rout is this one's strength.

Motorcycle Cop: Missed break SAR2 on August 6 from post 11 in a two-turn debut race, spotted field 15 lengths; sat patiently second-to-last thru backstretch then nice move second turn, way wide stretch but game 6th (just 1.5 lengths off fourth place), nice gallop out; perhaps a great learning experience; may be playable second start.

Nordic Fyre: Stumbled start SAR4 on August 9 and was cut off badly by horse that went nose to ground, spotted sprint field a ton but regained composure and grabbed third at 21-1 passing tired foes; think he could win at right price in soft spot, will be dismissed again.

Rufus the Red: Awful break August 7, SAR6, debut; checked a little bit but got into stride into turn and in stretch before flattening; could step forward with better start

Sunday Trip Horses

It's early stages, but my "bad trip" horses (see August 3 post) at Saratoga are 1-for-3 thus far in their next-out race, producing an 18.7% return on investment on a notional $2 win-place bet.

• Sky Low Low, race 10, August 6: 3rd of 12, beaten three-quarters of a length (see Saving Ground Matters). Will keep on my list and potentially elevate next time with jockey upgrade. (-$4)
• Ed Charles, race 6, August 7: 10th of 12, some early interest but looked gassed. Will keep tabs as it was only his second lifetime race as a two-year-old. (-$4)
• Bottas, race 9, August 7: 1st of 7, perfect stalking trip and won a Grade 2 by almost two lengths. Will continue to monitor. (+$14.44)
• (Alakan shipped to Virginia for race 6 at Colonial Downs on Saturday, August 8, and finished second. I didn't play as this exercise is intended to focus solely on horses running at Saratoga.)

Three bad-trip horses are entered Sunday's and we'll continue with notional $2 win-place. 

The first is unlikely to run as he'll only get into the race if it's scratched off turf and shifted to the dirt track (MTO). The latter two are unsurprising favorites after their prior races.

• Race 2: #9, Commitment Fund (MTO), 8/5: Not the least bit surprised he'd be favorite after July 5 debut and also that he's being stretched out from sprint debut.
• Race 5: #8, All Star Leigh, 5/2: Another two-year old race so hopefully horse doesn't bounce vs July 16 debut.
• Race 11: #9, Bosun, 7/2: My "more confident" play relative to All Star Leigh, especially if the rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz is confirmed. Hopeful the price drifts up a bit in a competitive 10-horse field.

Good luck if playing along!

Saving Ground Matters

Close but no cigar with my first "bad-trip horse" result yesterday as Sky Low Low was game in defeat, finishing third by three-quarters of a length in the finale at Saratoga. 

Especially in such a low-level race ($50k maiden claiming), if ever there was a case to be made that (a) getting an early lead or, mostly pertinently in the case of Sky Low Low, (b) saving ground is critical, yesterday's race 10 is proof. Check the chart.

A bit of rudimentary photographic evidence before I log into my real work...and proof why winner Intothewilderness' jockey Jose Ortiz wins 20%+ of his races whereas Sky Low Low's Katie Davis wins at 5%. (BTW, runner-up Italianne, put in a great spot throughout - forwardly place, saved ground along the rail - was ridden by Irad Ortiz, another 20%+ winner.)

Sky Low Low got a cleaner trip yesterday in terms of avoiding trouble found in her race prior, but the difference between third and winning, and less than one length, was Davis going wide and Ortiz saving ground for a late rail burst. 

Here are four screenshots at various parts of the race. 

The first is in the backstretch with Sky Low Low (#10) already at least six wide and Intothewilderness dead last but within striking distance, avoiding issues, and closer to the rail.

The second is going into the second turn. Again, #10 widest and #8 about the skim the rail.

Below, they're turning for home. Sky Low Low made a huge rush (could classify as a "huge middle move") yet still outside while Intothewilderness seizes the rail and rushes by three tired foes; best setup imaginable for a turf closer.

The finish line. Self explanatory.

The moral is that, especially at the lowest levels on turf where fractions matter, Sky Low Low wasted so much ground relative to the top two finishers that it cost the horse a win in its 11th start. 

As a handicapper, you can only put in the work. I had identified a troubled-trip horse capable of winning next out, which was the case here at almost 14-1. 

The horse ran a "winning race" but still finished third. 

Bettors were astute. The horse went off more than 2x its morning line.

Hence, zero return on a notional $2 win-place wager + a cash wager. 

This afternoon we'll see how things go for Ed Charles (race 6) and Bottas (race 9) - two horses (see prior post) I'm more bullish about than Sky Low Low and where my real wagers will be higher. 

Best of luck to anyone playing!

Maybe I'm Trippin'

Just like that, there's only 5 weeks left in the Saratoga 2026 meet!

Last year I learned a good lesson that resulted in a profitable season -- sit chillier the first 3-4 weeks, watch a ton of replays throughout the meet, identify troubled trips, and capitalize when said horses return to the track and have a good shot to win. 

It's neither scientific nor involves AI nor a fakakta subscription service. Solely my laptop, NJ Horseplayer elbow grease, patience, a cheap pair of readers, and a spreadsheet or online stable (I use Equibase). So caveat emptor.

For the benefit of my audience of six, through Travers Day I'll track how these "troubled trip" contenders fare and the resultant ROI on a notional $2 win-place bet. (I'd extend notional wagers to meet's end but last year found the quality of races dipped post-Travers and that winners seemed more random than normal; that said, I'll keep track of troubled trips the next 2-3 weeks). 

Generally speaking, I'll consider heavier win-place wagers on these runners at longer odds and use "short-price" types (e.g., Commitment Fund, Correlation Trade) for multirace exotics and exacta-trifecta. This list includes a few that weren't subject to bad trips (a few were stellar), but won as noted below.

From July 3 through August 2, I've identified about 20 horses that could have benefited from better luck or jockey decision-making, or both. Below are the runners' names, my rudimentary notes/opinions (from my Equibase stable and edited some for broader consumption), and links to video replays of the race in which each horse found trouble. 

I hope these help in your preparations and will start with four listed as entries from August 5-8, including one shipping south to Colonial Downs for an allowance. Not sure I'll play as it's not a normal track for me, but may make a small wager if odds are favorable.

Thursday, August 6

Race 10, Sky Low Low (6-1): 4yo filly, 0-10 lifetime but could have won without trouble in SAR9 on July 16 (#2 horse); Katie Davis nice job avoiding trouble (watch #5, who caused it clubhouse turn), but lost position on rail, had to shift out to wider path; got jump on Valiant Diva (see below) to the spot and ran 3-4 wide whereas VD went 5-6 wide; but SLL rallied late, lost by <1 length, might be playable.

Friday, August 7

Race 6, Ed Charles (8-1): 2yo colt. Granted, rail draw, but Junior Alvarado rode awfully in July 19, SAR6, debut; shied at the break, spotted field 8 lengths in 5.5f dirt, then takes horse three wide in turn, 8-10 wide in stretch but made up lots of ground; 4th of 10 is freaking amazing, would play back.

Race 9, Bottas (6-1): 3yo colt. Understated how bottled up he was entire G1 Belmont Derby at 16-1; brushed rail 1st turn, hemmed in 7th (of 10) thru backstretch + into turn, then responded but Manny (Franco) could never use crop as every hole closed; very game 6th and good use later in meet.

Saturday, August 8

Race 6 ALW at Colonial Downs, Alakan (odds TBD): Not a pound-the-table play but a game 20-1 (2x overlay) 1x trying turf marathon July 5, SAR9; handled distance well but fought restraint by Jorge Ruiz for much of opening mile, then made move but shut off, flattened to midpack finish; expect better outcome, good price in right condition.

Troubled-Trip Horses to Watch Next Out (Alphabetically w/Replay)

Ah Ca Ira: Amateur-hour ride July 10, SAR8 by Christopher Elliott; clean start, sat third, then CE too oblivious to take two-path gap (Red Sea-sized) between top two, checks, tries to get rail, fails, THEN shoots the gap but by then another horse had all momentum; finished 2nd, cost her a win.

All Star Leigh: July 16 debut, SAR5, slight hop at break, lost all chance, settled last; but Jose Ortiz rode patiently along rail albeit with two checks that cost some ground; exploded once she got a seam and ran straight; was 7-2, not sure of value second start but watch.

Bosun: July 11, race 8 - In short, TGaf did save ground midpack 5.5f T sprint but cut off a bit in stretch/too fearful to try and split gap between tiring leaders; checked, then shifted out with late burst to finish 2nd to #9 who simply got cleaner trip; should have won, watch next entry.

Commitment Fund: Almost 6-1 in July 5, SAR4 debut; complete hardluck loser, bottled up, cut off final 2-3 furlongs then bolted through for close second; would be surprised if not fave next out...but talented; could handle stretch-out from sprint debut IMHO.

Correlation Trade: Will undoubtedly be favorite 2x out; SAR1 debut on August 1 showed massive late kick; horse fought restraint much of the way, didn't handle turns well (especially second) but raw talent; would be good multirace single, figuring no win value after 2-1 on debut.

Gilded Bandit: Notes from G2 Amsterdam SAR9, July 31 totally understate how cut off he was one furlong out of the gate by Obliteration (ironically); completely lost all action, never had chance; would consider using again as Amsterdam trip was so bad, not in notes.

Gum: 0-7 lifetime 4yo, so maybe bettors will run out of patience, but Tyler Gaffalione ran into trouble July 10, SAR6, maybe cost Mcl win; sense she's decent enough at Mcl level to win with right trip, was under hold for much of July 10 race but had good burst when asked.

Hong Kong Phooey: Lower-level sort but trip notes COMPLETELY understated being cut off from gate, checking badly and falling 15 lengths behind in 5.5f off-turf sprint in mud; but horse continued to work and responded to Flavian (Prat) well, miraculous 4th. Is potentially useful as turf or off-turf play.

Irish Goodbye: Maybe bettors are fed up; in 4th LT start, July 16, SAR2, got crunched at start one-mile chute, gave up at least six lengths; still battled hard, ran on for distant third but after 5-2 and favoritism  the race prior, maybe folks give up and we find value next out.

Juliet On Approach: July 25, SAR11, 6th-place finish at 53-1 (20-1 ML) from rail in 12-horse turf sprint; broke alertly, midpack; saved ground but then Zayas took wide into turn, so lost ground then ran behind foes in stretch including second-place finisher; Begg horse that can absolutely factor at price next asking for a trainer that hit with long-shots in the 2025 meet.

Kipros: SAR1, July 26, rail draw, brutally cut off from starting gate, almost run into rail by #2 and spotted field 10 lengths; but Dylan (Davis) settled him nicely in backstretch before nice move in stretch for miraculous 4th; really good debut, bet back.

Madagascar: Christopher Elliott special in SAR2, July 23; ridden into trouble and series of checks last 4 furlongs-plus including into turn and 2x in stretch where bottled up but gained belatedly; has been 10-1 and 14-1 last two, so probably dismissed by bettors in next yet playable.

Queen of Hawaii: NOT A BAD-TRIP horse, but...really impressive AOC win SAR6, July 9 with Jose Ortiz; 1x start 3yo off Breeders Cup 2yo try. Patient horse, burst thru tight opening in stretch to win. Figures to jump in class next out, serious player.

Ratu Jawa (scratched as AE Aug. 2): July 3, SAR5, cut off badly from post 4, carried 4-5 wide but made nice sweeping move into stretch before leveling off for decent fourth; perhaps watch for better rider on turf other than Cesar Gonzalez and also if she gets inside draw as last four trips were all 4-5 wide; ground save may help with late closing kick in weaker company.

River Tay: August 2, SAR4, Dylan Davis had rail throughout, kept the horse inside, and made bad move trying to pass leader in stretch on rail instead of going to open 2-3 path; cost the horse the race + place where the winner came from the back and easily won; keen horse who is capable, always tries; play back later in meet. Subject to a back trip, jockey's decision.

Romala: Possible class drop/distance cutback play? Chad (Brown) turf second lifetime on July 4, SAR3, fought Manny Franco for 3f, hated restraint + flattened late on two-turn turf. Willing to give another shot as at least looked engaged second turn. Just lost so much energy early being an a-hole to Manny.

Valiant Diva: (see Sky Low Low above). 0-for-6 but deserves a look after worst-trip third in SAR9, July 16 after cut off at start, checked, and reined in after troubled horse eased out first turn. Once lane opened, horse ran well but way too wide (6-7 paths); jockey upgrade from Ruben Silvera would help.

White Smoke Rising: Maybe punched above weight trying the G2 Amsterdam, July 31; brushed gate, was dead last; (Ricardo) Santana saved ground but instead of holding the inside while gaining, tips six wide into far turn; ran gamely, but flattened; better trip and he at least finishes 3rd, worth playing especially with class drop. 

Whitethorn: (Not a bad-trip horse). Took 7x to win debut but explosive late kick in 11f finale SAR10, July 26; could be useful 1x vs winners, keep an eye.

Some Vino With My Haskell

I feel obligated to post thoughts on the Haskell since, you know, I go by "NJ Horseplayer." 

It doesn't mean that I go to Monmouth Park (15 minutes away) more than to Saratoga Race Course (three-plus hours) in the summer (completely true), but still, this year's edition seems more wide open than in recent past and so I'll h allocate a few shekels on our local Grade 1.

Let's assume fast conditions for the Haskell, which is race 12 of 14 and slated to run at 5:45 p.m.

Going with a big long-shot in the Haskell normally isn't a great idea or my cup of tea since the field is usually one or two real horses and otherwise filler, but there's enough to like about #3, Baby Vino (15-1), in a 7-horse field to make him my choice as upset winner. 

Here's my thought on each runner, in order of preference.

#3, Baby Vino (15-1): Trained by Lindsay Schultz, Baby Vino enters the Haskell after a dominant win in the Pegasus at Monmouth on June 13 and maiden victory on May 1 at Oaklawn and is improving -- a good sign for any three-year-old. The negative is that top Monmouth jockey and Pegasus-winning rider Paco Lopez jumps off Baby Vino and back to Preakness winner Napoleon Solo, but Jorge Vargas is a credible enough replacement who knows the course and whose task should be to save ground and pounce late. Stamina shouldn't be an issue (4-for-4 in the money in two-turn races), though replays suggest BV's not the best gate-breaker; so the key will be to not fall early to last. He's dealt with adversity in prior races, including a bad cutoff and check in the maiden win but shook that off for an impressive first win. At double-digit odds in a field I don't love, Baby Vino's my top selection.

#4, The Puma (7-2): Next best option and a great win proposition if 7-2. Last effort was a nose beat to Commandment in the Florida Derby in March. A leg infection kept him off the Kentucky Derby trail but, if healthy, he's got tremendous upside. First ever win was in the Grade 3 Tampa Derby and Puma's run against stiff competition including Chief Wallabee. Seems versatile tactically and jockey Luis Saez has become a big-time rider. Use on all tickets.

#6, Napoleon Solo (5-2): Won the Preakness at almost 8-1, should benefit a while from Monmouth's typical early-speed bias, and gets Paco, but candidly I hated his Wood and Fountain of Youth preps, where he got early leads before dropping anchor (finished fifth in both). IMHO, the Preakness was leaps below Derby quality, and in the Haskell be prepared to take 2-1 or 9-5, which is a "pass" for me. To win he'll need to go unchallenged on the lead and temper the pace, though I don't see that happening on Saturday. Back up the Brink's truck only with caution.

#2, Further Ado (2-1): A Spendthrift-owned $550k purchase who has banked $1.5 million already, but his four wins were all in Kentucky and a few against so-so fields. The knock for me is finishing behind two runners in the Haskell field -- The Puma and still-winless Ocelli -- in head-to-head races. Trainer Brad Cox is to be feared and great at placing his horses in winnable spots like this one, but like Napoleon Solo (with one of the leading national riders, Irad Ortiz), you're looking at 9-5. Too short.

#5, Iron Honor (3-1): Chad Brown trainee who won a bad Gotham in late February and finished a flat second to Napoleon Solo in the Preakness, but to me he's a one-paced sort and I'm not sure he's talented enough to gun it and stay in first for a mile and an eighth. I could see him finished third at best and sense Brown will use this to see if he's got a Travers horse for owners St. Elias or lesser fodder.

#7, Ocelli (6-1): Is 0-for-9 lifetime including a surprising third in the Derby and couldn't win the freaking Grade 3 Ohio Derby last month, and is a closer. Stacks up for a rough day in Oceanport.

#1, Star Sweeper (30-1): Participating.

Good luck to all Haskell connections and to everyone going to Monmouth Park and have a great day!

As a bonus "Best Bet"...#1, Money Game (5-2) in race 4, Grade 3 Monmouth Cup. 

Brad Cox has been training this 4-year-old in Saratoga but ships to Monmouth Park to face nearly $6 million winner Skippylongstocking (3-2) and multiple graded stakes winner Knightsbridge (7-5), along with three fillers. Money Game is 4-for-4 lifetime and has yet to run at the stakes level but this is a good stepping stone and he enters off a win versus $1.1 million winner Bendoog, who won a stake at Horseshoe Indianapolis last Saturday. 

This feels to me like a race where Skippylongstocking and Knightsbridge (1x trying this long a distance) draw all the money and perhaps Money Game drifts up toward 3-1, we'll see. Irad Ortiz gets the mount, which I also view as a positive and adds to Money Game's value in a short field.