Bosun Win on Sunday Lifts Bad-Trip ROI...and Additions

Of the five "bad-trip" horses I had identified as playable next out at Sarataga this past week, two (Bosun and Bottas) were winners, two finished a close third (All Star Leigh and Sky Low Low), and one never lifted his feet in his second lifetime start (Ed Charles). 

The net result on the five notional $2 win-place bets ($20 total) recommended here is a 31% ROI.  

Bosun won the finale (replay) on Sunday (SAR 11) from slightly off the pace and Bottas (replay) did the same on Friday in similar fashion. Both went off as underlays.

The Week Ahead for Bad Trippers

Mr. and Mrs. NJ Horseplayer are making the trip to Saratoga and will be on track Thursday and for much of Friday. Please drop a line if in the neighborhood.

A few of the horses I identified in Maybe I'm Trippin' are entered during the August 12-16 week, including Gum (9-2) and a horse that I accidently left off the initial list (Grace of Monaco, 20-1) in Wednesday's finale (SAR 9). At the time of writing, I'm inclined to side with the latter, but in the spirit of this exercise may notionally play both $2 win-place.  

On Friday, Ratu Jawa is entered in a $200,000 stake (SAR 9) - an enormous jump from allowance for a runner with one lifetime victory. 

I'll update the page if others are entered.

Additions to the Bad Trippers List

Again, with rudimentary notes from my Equibase stable.

Grace of Monaco: July 12, SAR6, 3rd LT start, 1x turf; deep field, was cut off then boxed in from gate, and then ran next 4 furlongs under complete hammer lock, was hemmed in on rail, never found opening, checked a few times, but made a nice shift out 1f from finish and passed a few; sense there's talent and may like turf, willing to give a shot next out. 

Market Timing: Stuck on rail SAR7 on August 6, under relative hammer lock most of SAR7 August 6, lightly raced (3x), looks good enough to step forward w/better luck.

Mo Misery: Chart understates trouble of hitting gate, moving 2-3x into first turn and seemingly almost tossing Junior Alvarado, who going into the first turn was bounced around by his horse, even having to sit on the saddle at one point, and sizeable check plus second smaller one in stretch but ran gangbusters late for third once free; two prior were dirt sprint so maybe turf rout is this one's strength.

Motorcycle Cop: Missed break SAR2 on August 6 from post 11 in a two-turn debut race, spotted field 15 lengths; sat patiently second-to-last thru backstretch then nice move second turn, way wide stretch but game 6th (just 1.5 lengths off fourth place), nice gallop out; perhaps a great learning experience; may be playable second start.

Nordic Fyre: Stumbled start SAR4 on August 9 and was cut off badly by horse that went nose to ground, spotted sprint field a ton but regained composure and grabbed third at 21-1 passing tired foes; think he could win at right price in soft spot, will be dismissed again.

Rufus the Red: Awful break August 7, SAR6, debut; checked a little bit but got into stride into turn and in stretch before flattening; could step forward with better start

Sunday Trip Horses

It's early stages, but my "bad trip" horses (see August 3 post) at Saratoga are 1-for-3 thus far in their next-out race, producing an 18.7% return on investment on a notional $2 win-place bet.

• Sky Low Low, race 10, August 6: 3rd of 12, beaten three-quarters of a length (see Saving Ground Matters). Will keep on my list and potentially elevate next time with jockey upgrade. (-$4)
• Ed Charles, race 6, August 7: 10th of 12, some early interest but looked gassed. Will keep tabs as it was only his second lifetime race as a two-year-old. (-$4)
• Bottas, race 9, August 7: 1st of 7, perfect stalking trip and won a Grade 2 by almost two lengths. Will continue to monitor. (+$14.44)
• (Alakan shipped to Virginia for race 6 at Colonial Downs on Saturday, August 8, and finished second. I didn't play as this exercise is intended to focus solely on horses running at Saratoga.)

Three bad-trip horses are entered Sunday's and we'll continue with notional $2 win-place. 

The first is unlikely to run as he'll only get into the race if it's scratched off turf and shifted to the dirt track (MTO). The latter two are unsurprising favorites after their prior races.

• Race 2: #9, Commitment Fund (MTO), 8/5: Not the least bit surprised he'd be favorite after July 5 debut and also that he's being stretched out from sprint debut.
• Race 5: #8, All Star Leigh, 5/2: Another two-year old race so hopefully horse doesn't bounce vs July 16 debut.
• Race 11: #9, Bosun, 7/2: My "more confident" play relative to All Star Leigh, especially if the rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz is confirmed. Hopeful the price drifts up a bit in a competitive 10-horse field.

Good luck if playing along!

Saving Ground Matters

Close but no cigar with my first "bad-trip horse" result yesterday as Sky Low Low was game in defeat, finishing third by three-quarters of a length in the finale at Saratoga. 

Especially in such a low-level race ($50k maiden claiming), if ever there was a case to be made that (a) getting an early lead or, mostly pertinently in the case of Sky Low Low, (b) saving ground is critical, yesterday's race 10 is proof. Check the chart.

A bit of rudimentary photographic evidence before I log into my real work...and proof why winner Intothewilderness' jockey Jose Ortiz wins 20%+ of his races whereas Sky Low Low's Katie Davis wins at 5%. (BTW, runner-up Italianne, put in a great spot throughout - forwardly place, saved ground along the rail - was ridden by Irad Ortiz, another 20%+ winner.)

Sky Low Low got a cleaner trip yesterday in terms of avoiding trouble found in her race prior, but the difference between third and winning, and less than one length, was Davis going wide and Ortiz saving ground for a late rail burst. 

Here are four screenshots at various parts of the race. 

The first is in the backstretch with Sky Low Low (#10) already at least six wide and Intothewilderness dead last but within striking distance, avoiding issues, and closer to the rail.

The second is going into the second turn. Again, #10 widest and #8 about the skim the rail.

Below, they're turning for home. Sky Low Low made a huge rush (could classify as a "huge middle move") yet still outside while Intothewilderness seizes the rail and rushes by three tired foes; best setup imaginable for a turf closer.

The finish line. Self explanatory.

The moral is that, especially at the lowest levels on turf where fractions matter, Sky Low Low wasted so much ground relative to the top two finishers that it cost the horse a win in its 11th start. 

As a handicapper, you can only put in the work. I had identified a troubled-trip horse capable of winning next out, which was the case here at almost 14-1. 

The horse ran a "winning race" but still finished third. 

Bettors were astute. The horse went off more than 2x its morning line.

Hence, zero return on a notional $2 win-place wager + a cash wager. 

This afternoon we'll see how things go for Ed Charles (race 6) and Bottas (race 9) - two horses (see prior post) I'm more bullish about than Sky Low Low and where my real wagers will be higher. 

Best of luck to anyone playing!

Maybe I'm Trippin'

Just like that, there's only 5 weeks left in the Saratoga 2026 meet!

Last year I learned a good lesson that resulted in a profitable season -- sit chillier the first 3-4 weeks, watch a ton of replays throughout the meet, identify troubled trips, and capitalize when said horses return to the track and have a good shot to win. 

It's neither scientific nor involves AI nor a fakakta subscription service. Solely my laptop, NJ Horseplayer elbow grease, patience, a cheap pair of readers, and a spreadsheet or online stable (I use Equibase). So caveat emptor.

For the benefit of my audience of six, through Travers Day I'll track how these "troubled trip" contenders fare and the resultant ROI on a notional $2 win-place bet. (I'd extend notional wagers to meet's end but last year found the quality of races dipped post-Travers and that winners seemed more random than normal; that said, I'll keep track of troubled trips the next 2-3 weeks). 

Generally speaking, I'll consider heavier win-place wagers on these runners at longer odds and use "short-price" types (e.g., Commitment Fund, Correlation Trade) for multirace exotics and exacta-trifecta. This list includes a few that weren't subject to bad trips (a few were stellar), but won as noted below.

From July 3 through August 2, I've identified about 20 horses that could have benefited from better luck or jockey decision-making, or both. Below are the runners' names, my rudimentary notes/opinions (from my Equibase stable and edited some for broader consumption), and links to video replays of the race in which each horse found trouble. 

I hope these help in your preparations and will start with four listed as entries from August 5-8, including one shipping south to Colonial Downs for an allowance. Not sure I'll play as it's not a normal track for me, but may make a small wager if odds are favorable.

Thursday, August 6

Race 10, Sky Low Low (6-1): 4yo filly, 0-10 lifetime but could have won without trouble in SAR9 on July 16 (#2 horse); Katie Davis nice job avoiding trouble (watch #5, who caused it clubhouse turn), but lost position on rail, had to shift out to wider path; got jump on Valiant Diva (see below) to the spot and ran 3-4 wide whereas VD went 5-6 wide; but SLL rallied late, lost by <1 length, might be playable.

Friday, August 7

Race 6, Ed Charles (8-1): 2yo colt. Granted, rail draw, but Junior Alvarado rode awfully in July 19, SAR6, debut; shied at the break, spotted field 8 lengths in 5.5f dirt, then takes horse three wide in turn, 8-10 wide in stretch but made up lots of ground; 4th of 10 is freaking amazing, would play back.

Race 9, Bottas (6-1): 3yo colt. Understated how bottled up he was entire G1 Belmont Derby at 16-1; brushed rail 1st turn, hemmed in 7th (of 10) thru backstretch + into turn, then responded but Manny (Franco) could never use crop as every hole closed; very game 6th and good use later in meet.

Saturday, August 8

Race 6 ALW at Colonial Downs, Alakan (odds TBD): Not a pound-the-table play but a game 20-1 (2x overlay) 1x trying turf marathon July 5, SAR9; handled distance well but fought restraint by Jorge Ruiz for much of opening mile, then made move but shut off, flattened to midpack finish; expect better outcome, good price in right condition.

Troubled-Trip Horses to Watch Next Out (Alphabetically w/Replay)

Ah Ca Ira: Amateur-hour ride July 10, SAR8 by Christopher Elliott; clean start, sat third, then CE too oblivious to take two-path gap (Red Sea-sized) between top two, checks, tries to get rail, fails, THEN shoots the gap but by then another horse had all momentum; finished 2nd, cost her a win.

All Star Leigh: July 16 debut, SAR5, slight hop at break, lost all chance, settled last; but Jose Ortiz rode patiently along rail albeit with two checks that cost some ground; exploded once she got a seam and ran straight; was 7-2, not sure of value second start but watch.

Bosun: July 11, race 8 - In short, TGaf did save ground midpack 5.5f T sprint but cut off a bit in stretch/too fearful to try and split gap between tiring leaders; checked, then shifted out with late burst to finish 2nd to #9 who simply got cleaner trip; should have won, watch next entry.

Commitment Fund: Almost 6-1 in July 5, SAR4 debut; complete hardluck loser, bottled up, cut off final 2-3 furlongs then bolted through for close second; would be surprised if not fave next out...but talented; could handle stretch-out from sprint debut IMHO.

Correlation Trade: Will undoubtedly be favorite 2x out; SAR1 debut on August 1 showed massive late kick; horse fought restraint much of the way, didn't handle turns well (especially second) but raw talent; would be good multirace single, figuring no win value after 2-1 on debut.

Gilded Bandit: Notes from G2 Amsterdam SAR9, July 31 totally understate how cut off he was one furlong out of the gate by Obliteration (ironically); completely lost all action, never had chance; would consider using again as Amsterdam trip was so bad, not in notes.

Gum: 0-7 lifetime 4yo, so maybe bettors will run out of patience, but Tyler Gaffalione ran into trouble July 10, SAR6, maybe cost Mcl win; sense she's decent enough at Mcl level to win with right trip, was under hold for much of July 10 race but had good burst when asked.

Hong Kong Phooey: Lower-level sort but trip notes COMPLETELY understated being cut off from gate, checking badly and falling 15 lengths behind in 5.5f off-turf sprint in mud; but horse continued to work and responded to Flavian (Prat) well, miraculous 4th. Is potentially useful as turf or off-turf play.

Irish Goodbye: Maybe bettors are fed up; in 4th LT start, July 16, SAR2, got crunched at start one-mile chute, gave up at least six lengths; still battled hard, ran on for distant third but after 5-2 and favoritism  the race prior, maybe folks give up and we find value next out.

Juliet On Approach: July 25, SAR11, 6th-place finish at 53-1 (20-1 ML) from rail in 12-horse turf sprint; broke alertly, midpack; saved ground but then Zayas took wide into turn, so lost ground then ran behind foes in stretch including second-place finisher; Begg horse that can absolutely factor at price next asking for a trainer that hit with long-shots in the 2025 meet.

Kipros: SAR1, July 26, rail draw, brutally cut off from starting gate, almost run into rail by #2 and spotted field 10 lengths; but Dylan (Davis) settled him nicely in backstretch before nice move in stretch for miraculous 4th; really good debut, bet back.

Madagascar: Christopher Elliott special in SAR2, July 23; ridden into trouble and series of checks last 4 furlongs-plus including into turn and 2x in stretch where bottled up but gained belatedly; has been 10-1 and 14-1 last two, so probably dismissed by bettors in next yet playable.

Queen of Hawaii: NOT A BAD-TRIP horse, but...really impressive AOC win SAR6, July 9 with Jose Ortiz; 1x start 3yo off Breeders Cup 2yo try. Patient horse, burst thru tight opening in stretch to win. Figures to jump in class next out, serious player.

Ratu Jawa (scratched as AE Aug. 2): July 3, SAR5, cut off badly from post 4, carried 4-5 wide but made nice sweeping move into stretch before leveling off for decent fourth; perhaps watch for better rider on turf other than Cesar Gonzalez and also if she gets inside draw as last four trips were all 4-5 wide; ground save may help with late closing kick in weaker company.

River Tay: August 2, SAR4, Dylan Davis had rail throughout, kept the horse inside, and made bad move trying to pass leader in stretch on rail instead of going to open 2-3 path; cost the horse the race + place where the winner came from the back and easily won; keen horse who is capable, always tries; play back later in meet. Subject to a back trip, jockey's decision.

Romala: Possible class drop/distance cutback play? Chad (Brown) turf second lifetime on July 4, SAR3, fought Manny Franco for 3f, hated restraint + flattened late on two-turn turf. Willing to give another shot as at least looked engaged second turn. Just lost so much energy early being an a-hole to Manny.

Valiant Diva: (see Sky Low Low above). 0-for-6 but deserves a look after worst-trip third in SAR9, July 16 after cut off at start, checked, and reined in after troubled horse eased out first turn. Once lane opened, horse ran well but way too wide (6-7 paths); jockey upgrade from Ruben Silvera would help.

White Smoke Rising: Maybe punched above weight trying the G2 Amsterdam, July 31; brushed gate, was dead last; (Ricardo) Santana saved ground but instead of holding the inside while gaining, tips six wide into far turn; ran gamely, but flattened; better trip and he at least finishes 3rd, worth playing especially with class drop. 

Whitethorn: (Not a bad-trip horse). Took 7x to win debut but explosive late kick in 11f finale SAR10, July 26; could be useful 1x vs winners, keep an eye.

Some Vino With My Haskell

I feel obligated to post thoughts on the Haskell since, you know, I go by "NJ Horseplayer." 

It doesn't mean that I go to Monmouth Park (15 minutes away) more than to Saratoga Race Course (three-plus hours) in the summer (completely true), but still, this year's edition seems more wide open than in recent past and so I'll h allocate a few shekels on our local Grade 1.

Let's assume fast conditions for the Haskell, which is race 12 of 14 and slated to run at 5:45 p.m.

Going with a big long-shot in the Haskell normally isn't a great idea or my cup of tea since the field is usually one or two real horses and otherwise filler, but there's enough to like about #3, Baby Vino (15-1), in a 7-horse field to make him my choice as upset winner. 

Here's my thought on each runner, in order of preference.

#3, Baby Vino (15-1): Trained by Lindsay Schultz, Baby Vino enters the Haskell after a dominant win in the Pegasus at Monmouth on June 13 and maiden victory on May 1 at Oaklawn and is improving -- a good sign for any three-year-old. The negative is that top Monmouth jockey and Pegasus-winning rider Paco Lopez jumps off Baby Vino and back to Preakness winner Napoleon Solo, but Jorge Vargas is a credible enough replacement who knows the course and whose task should be to save ground and pounce late. Stamina shouldn't be an issue (4-for-4 in the money in two-turn races), though replays suggest BV's not the best gate-breaker; so the key will be to not fall early to last. He's dealt with adversity in prior races, including a bad cutoff and check in the maiden win but shook that off for an impressive first win. At double-digit odds in a field I don't love, Baby Vino's my top selection.

#4, The Puma (7-2): Next best option and a great win proposition if 7-2. Last effort was a nose beat to Commandment in the Florida Derby in March. A leg infection kept him off the Kentucky Derby trail but, if healthy, he's got tremendous upside. First ever win was in the Grade 3 Tampa Derby and Puma's run against stiff competition including Chief Wallabee. Seems versatile tactically and jockey Luis Saez has become a big-time rider. Use on all tickets.

#6, Napoleon Solo (5-2): Won the Preakness at almost 8-1, should benefit a while from Monmouth's typical early-speed bias, and gets Paco, but candidly I hated his Wood and Fountain of Youth preps, where he got early leads before dropping anchor (finished fifth in both). IMHO, the Preakness was leaps below Derby quality, and in the Haskell be prepared to take 2-1 or 9-5, which is a "pass" for me. To win he'll need to go unchallenged on the lead and temper the pace, though I don't see that happening on Saturday. Back up the Brink's truck only with caution.

#2, Further Ado (2-1): A Spendthrift-owned $550k purchase who has banked $1.5 million already, but his four wins were all in Kentucky and a few against so-so fields. The knock for me is finishing behind two runners in the Haskell field -- The Puma and still-winless Ocelli -- in head-to-head races. Trainer Brad Cox is to be feared and great at placing his horses in winnable spots like this one, but like Napoleon Solo (with one of the leading national riders, Irad Ortiz), you're looking at 9-5. Too short.

#5, Iron Honor (3-1): Chad Brown trainee who won a bad Gotham in late February and finished a flat second to Napoleon Solo in the Preakness, but to me he's a one-paced sort and I'm not sure he's talented enough to gun it and stay in first for a mile and an eighth. I could see him finished third at best and sense Brown will use this to see if he's got a Travers horse for owners St. Elias or lesser fodder.

#7, Ocelli (6-1): Is 0-for-9 lifetime including a surprising third in the Derby and couldn't win the freaking Grade 3 Ohio Derby last month, and is a closer. Stacks up for a rough day in Oceanport.

#1, Star Sweeper (30-1): Participating.

Good luck to all Haskell connections and to everyone going to Monmouth Park and have a great day!

As a bonus "Best Bet"...#1, Money Game (5-2) in race 4, Grade 3 Monmouth Cup. 

Brad Cox has been training this 4-year-old in Saratoga but ships to Monmouth Park to face nearly $6 million winner Skippylongstocking (3-2) and multiple graded stakes winner Knightsbridge (7-5), along with three fillers. Money Game is 4-for-4 lifetime and has yet to run at the stakes level but this is a good stepping stone and he enters off a win versus $1.1 million winner Bendoog, who won a stake at Horseshoe Indianapolis last Saturday. 

This feels to me like a race where Skippylongstocking and Knightsbridge (1x trying this long a distance) draw all the money and perhaps Money Game drifts up toward 3-1, we'll see. Irad Ortiz gets the mount, which I also view as a positive and adds to Money Game's value in a short field.

I'm a Renegade at Heart

This is the third and final Belmont Stakes at Saratoga and my views are anything but magical, projecting 2-1 morning line favorite and Kentucky Derby runner-up Renegade as my winner.

The race shapes up as somewhat paceless, which could compromise the chances for Derby winner Golden Tempo (9-2), though his Run for the Roses was similar to Renegade's, except for a significantly easier post position. My thesis hinges on Renegade getting post relief this Saturday and, similar to Golden Tempo, five full weeks of rest and recovery. 

Here's my take on each runner in order of preference.

#4, Renegade (2-1): By far the best of trainer Todd Pletcher's two entries and a neck shy of winning the Derby from the absolute worst post (rail draw). Broke cleanly before getting pinballed along the rail and settling toward the rear. His late move was eye-catching but I sense he had to work harder than Golden Tempo to procure a potential winning position. In the Belmont, I anticipate he'll get a more favorable tracking trip near stablemate Powershift. Unless he hates the Saratoga surface (debut was a decent third as a two-year-old late last summer there but at a sprint distance), he's the winner.

#7, Commandment (6-1): I liked him going into the Kentucky Derby and remain a fan. I was tempted to make him top selection at the generous morning line and as he was jostled quite a bit in the Derby, but upon watching the replay a 50th time liked Renegade's finish from the dreaded rail a lot more. I wouldn't be surprised if Commandment wins but am sticking with Renegade.

#9, Golden Ticket (9-2): The morning line is generous but fair consider his deep closer style on a difficult track to execute such strategy. I'm not sure we'll see a minute and 10-second (or faster) three-quarter mile time like in most of his five lifetime races and so I'm calling him third-best. If the internal race fraction is that fast again, look out; could be your winner. Otherwise, something in the more reasonable 1:11-1:12 range make his prospects more challenging. Can win, just unsure he can repeat the late kick again on this particular track. 

#6, Growth Equity (12-1): The distant best of three Chad Brown runners. Unsure he faced anyone credible in two short-field wins downstate leading into the Belmont, though he's got stamina. Distance shouldn't be an issue and I sense we'll hear his name among the leaders into the stretch. The question is whether he's quality enough to win the crown. I'll use underneath Renegade on my tickets and gauge his potential for a win in the Travers at Saratoga in late August. 

#3, Chief Wallabee (3-1): Finished fourth in the Derby and is a hard-knocker. I think he'd benefit more from the traditional 12-furlong Belmont distance than this year's 10 furlongs. I sense he'll sit just off Powershift's flank and hope to outlast the rest if the race is semi-paceless. The knock for me, as noted in my Kentucky Derby analysis, is that he wilted late in two Derby preps, both to Commandment, who I think is better. Ceiling is third or fourth and 3-1 is too short.

#8, Emerging Market (6-1): Another Brown trainee and who gets the top jockey Flavian Prat. I wasn't a huge fan into the Derby, begrudgingly and defensively rating him in my second tear, and have no change of opinion. Simply, nothing caught my eye in the Derby to elevate Emerging Market beyond a midpack finish in Saturday's Belmont. Yes, he beat Golden Ticket in the Louisiana Derby earlier in the Derby prep season, but GT was significantly squeezed from the gate and still almost won. Emerging Markets simply capitalized.

#2, Powershift (12-1): The other Pletcher horse, who needed to face a group of older horses to break his maiden on the Kentucky Derby undercard. That's a significant negative. I sense he'll jump out as the leader and it might be uncontested, but there's not enough here to have confidence beyond the horse leading beyond 6-7 furlongs. Will fade and finish in the bottom half. 

#5, Ottinho (20-1): Second and third in two stakes races but 11 lengths behind the winner in both. I'm figuring this Chad Brown trainee takes a little money, just not mine for a one-paced horse who seems to lack stamina or speed. 

#1, Vitruvian Man (30-1): The connections can say they had a Belmont runner. Good for them.

Identifying the Head Honcho in the Preakness

Two days after I attended the 2025 Preakness Stakes, host track Pimlico started a massive renovation.

As a result, this year's rendition of the second leg of the Triple Crown moves to Laurel Park, a nice yet smaller track about a half hour from Baltimore and where attendance is capped at less than 5,000. It's not designed to host an event this big, but will at least for this season.

I've been there a handful of times but have no inside dirt (nor turf), though Saturday's card is appealing, especially for its depth in the 2026 Preakness Stakes (7 p.m.).

That said, I've narrowed the 14-horse field down to two potential winners - Chip Honcho and Ocelli.

Beyond that, I've given reasons below for tossing most runners from win probability yet identified a number that readers could key to spice up exactas and trifectas.

My goal, outside of enjoying Kane Sneak Box at Boyle's in Monmouth Beach as a watching site and following that with a nice dinner in the area, will be to build on a positive Derby Weekend ROI after nailing Always a Runner in the Oaks.

#6, Chip Honcho (5-1): This Steve Asmussen trainee qualified and was in training for the Kentucky Derby but the connections pointed instead to the Preakness. It makes sense considering a much softer field and about two months of rest and training since a disappointing fifth in the Louisiana Derby; his works have been on a consistent schedule, so health isn't a concern. I like his front-running style and post position outside of early runner Taj Mahal. What tempers my enthusiasm is that he wilted late to finish second in the Risen Star after being uncontested on the lead on a track where no one seemed to gain. So maybe it was a speed-favoring oval that afternoon. If Laurel Park is tricked up and speed holds, Chip Honcho is dangerous, especially with Jose Ortiz riding. Recall that Ortiz won the Kentucky Derby and also spent the winter riding at Fair Grounds for the likes of Asmussen, so I sense he hired the best jockey option. Dangerous win prospect. 

#2, Ocelli (6-1): Closer who finished an impressive third in the Kentucky Derby with a reserved early ride and wide charge into the stretch. Breaking from post 2 instead of post 17 like in the Derby is a benefit as presumably jockey Tyler Gaffalione can sit along the rail and save Ocelli for another late run. It remains a question, however, whether this horse wants to win, considering his 0-6 lifetime record. Hard seeing a maiden winning the Preakness two weeks after a tiring Derby effort, but this field's nothing stellar, so why not.

#8, Bull by the Horns (30-1): Probably a turf or synthetic horse, and not particularly fast based on speed figures, but he's got decent late kick and could get a minor award. Won the lower-level Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park on March 21 and beat Trendsetter, who easily beat The Hell We Did (see below) from off the pace in the Bluegrass Stakes. Ceiling is third, but that'd be a good result.

#12, Incredibolt (5-1): I just don't trust jockey Jaime Torres. Incredibolt ran sixth and did nothing wrong in the Kentucky Derby and will compete for favoritism with Iron Honor, but looked to be running in place in the stretch and I'm not sure is a Grade 1 horse. Maybe by default. On pace handicapping, I sense he'll be sitting midpack down the backstretch and within 3-4 lengths of the lead but flatten. It's a lot to ask for a two-week turnaround from the Derby and compete. Not sure it was smart to enter the Preakness, but dangerous if he repeats his Virginia Derby effort. Using in exacta.

#9, Iron Honor (9-2): I bet against in the Wood Memorial as 3-1 favorite and was completely right, based on his uninspiring seventh-place finish. Chad Brown takes the blinkers off his horse and upgrades to Flavien Prat in the saddle, but I'm not sure it's enough. Maybe the Preakness company is so weak that Iron Honor can win, but I'm concerned he won't get this distance and looks like a plodder. I sense he'll be 3-1 favorite on Saturday, which lessens Iron Honor's appeal even further. Third at best.

#1, Taj Mahal (5-1): Any trainer that wins 33% of races, ahem Brittany Russell, needs their barn inspected. That said, this locally based horse is 3-for-3 with gaudy wins including the Tesio Stakes on April 18, which got him into the Preakness. Is he legit? Speed figures suggest he'll compete, but I sense the jump from overnight stakes to Grade 1 company will be a bit much for Taj Mahal to win, though 2 bullet workouts since the Tesio perhaps indicate enough sharpness to use in the trifecta. The history of Tesio winners in the Preakness also is a bearish signal.

#5, Talkin (20-1): Sire Good Magic finished fourth in this race, and there's nothing eye-catching in Talkin's performances leading into the Preakness. He was scrubbed on in the Tampa  Derby in March to finish a distant fifth, while his third in the Bluegrass (12 lengths off the winner) in April wasn't impressive either. Punching above his weight class in the Preakness. Pass.

#4, Robusta (30-1): His best to this point was almost stealing the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita in early March at 67-1, but since then he's finished a combined 33 lengths behind the winners of the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby. Early pace factor who'll fade and not hit the board.

#10, Napoleon Solo (8-1): Significant regression since two gaudy wins in New York as a 2-year-old. Finished fifth in both the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial. Will be among the leaders early and fade. Sense he's a sprinter, not a two-turn stakes horse. Unlikely to hit the board unless, as noted for Chip Honcho, the track is tricked up and early speed holds. 

#13, Great White (15-1): I can't see this one rocking us through the night. Was running in quicksand before the stretch of the Bluegrass (fifth place, 22 lengths behind) and I suspect isn't a dirt horse, based on three prior races, all on synthetic, including a win in the Battaglia Memorial at Turfway. Perhaps better suited for turf racing. Not using.

#7, The Hell We Did (15-1): Second in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes in April might explain the seemingly enticing odds for this Todd Fincher trainee, but he's got no stamina and speed that pales in comparison with some others in the Preakness. Best of 2 wins was versus allowance (non-winners of two races) company at Sunland Park. Better suited to the Preakness undercard, or a Thursday race.

#11, Corona de Oro (30-1): Jockey John Velasquez gets the mount, but if I had a nickel for everytime someone told me that trainer Dallas Stewart always has live long-shots...

#3, Crupper (30-1): Winner of two low-level races at Oaklawn Park and at awful speed figures to boot has no chance. Crapper is more like it.

#14, Pretty Boy Miah (15-1): Another that doesn't belong. He's never gone more than a mile nor run outside of Aqueduct and last beat claimers. The widest post at Laurel won't help. It's a massive class jump and the horse will be off Lasix. Just not seeing it despite getting one of my favorite jockeys.