Taking Stock of 2026 Saratoga Bad-Trippers

There's no better impetus than functional electricity during a 3-day Nor'easter, cancellation of Belmont's second-weekend card, and muted NFL interest as a lifelong NY Jets sufferer to recap my performance in this summer's exercise of first identifying, then playing back, horses subject to observable misfortune during the 2026 Saratoga meeting.

I scratched out a positive 1.4% ROI from August 5 through Travers weekend, as noted on August 31, based on mythical $2 win-place wagers on 20 runners that produced $1.08 of profit on $80 bet. 

Nothing to write home about, but still a positive return, which I'll take.

For the 7 of 20 bad-trippers that hit the board, off odds averaged 11.5% below their morning lines, signaling sharp handicappers also are doing their homework on bad trips, and finding value is difficult at Saratoga.

Another theory I wrote about which proved accurate, based on the data, was a sort of "randomness" to closing week outcomes...or verification that my handicapping during that week is typically bad. Just 1 of 10 bad-trippers (Market Timing) won their race that week, while one finished second with, you guessed it, another suspect trip wide on the track (Sky Low Low; see Saving Ground Matters).

Including bad-trippers during closing week would have turned my ROI to -20%. 

It was a fun exercise, and my Saratoga work proved productive in registering a Top 20 finish and $2,500 score in the Horse Tourneys Surf and Spa tournement. So, in sum, a profitable summer!

I'll use this exercise in future Saratoga meets as I believe it's a useful tool.

Bad-Trip ROI Barely Positive Into Closing Week

Just 1 of my 6 bad-trip horses prevailed at Saratoga from August 26-30, with Kipros salvaging the week with a win in the third on Sunday to keep my ROI positive (+1.4%) for this particular exercise. 

At least it's positive ground, and playing Kipros helped me secure 18th-place (of 245) and $2,500 in this weekend's Spa & Surf Showdown on HorseTourneys.com! More on that in a future post.

(I also used Queen of Hawaii, but she wasn't quite ready for such a big jump in competition and didn't hit the board.)

Entries, Closing Week

Here's what we've got so far and early thoughts. I'll update as fresh information becomes available.

• Motorcycle Cop (12-1): Wednesday, September 2, Race 6
• Rufus the Red (9-2): Thursday, September 3, Race 2
• Ratu Jawa (12-1): Thursday, September 3, Race 6
• Odds fair considering stiff competition in Annascaul if the race stays on turf (midweek rain in the forecast) but don't love quick turnaround after finishing second in August 21 race; connections must really want a win at Saratoga
• Mo Misery (4-1)*: Thursday, September 3, Race 4 at Kentucky Downs
• Will not use for our exercise but worth watching, $100k MSW
• Bosun (TBD): Friday, September 4, Race 8
• Love the post position (#2) outside of speedball What's Up Bro
• Gum (TBD): Friday, Sepember 4, Race 11
• Claimed for $85k but not a fan of the connections; tall order versus stiff competition

 

Saratoga Bad-Trip Horses ROI: 20.9%

A 21% return isn't half bad through my three-week (of five) test of notional $2 win-place bets on horses making starts following races where they had a legitimate excuse for losing (e.g., jockey error, interference, bumping). 

Thus far, 4 of 14 won, two finished second, and two finished third. As posted previously, Sky Low Low's ground wasting at almost 14-1 cost my ROI substantially on a three-quarter length loss, but we move forward.

I've reviewed the past two weeks' races for more bad-trip horses to add; there are two new ones below.

Otherwise, a few are entered during the August 26-30 week at Saratoga Race Course.

Here's what's ahead thru Travers Day:

• Madagascar (5-1): Thursday, August 27, Race 6
• Coach Case (8-5): Thursday, August 27, Race 9
• Ah Ca Ira (3-1): Friday, August 28, Race 2
• Ed Charles (15-1): Friday, August 28, Race 6
• Will give another shot after his follow-up clunker a few weeks ago; still young horse
• Whitethorn (10-1): Friday, August 28, Race 8
• Queen of Hawaii (2-1): Saturday, August 29, Race 10

Two Bad Trip Additions from August 12-16 

It's late in the meet and I'm not certain how many of the horses that ran last week will be entered before Labor Day closing, but here's two that experienced what'd I'd consider to be notable issues costing them placement and that are worth a look next out.

• Miel Et Citron: Sent off at 63-1 for very low-percentage connections but checked a few times in race 3 on August 12, then bottled up but ran late with interest; useful sprinter potentially in final week(s) but Douglas Seyler (trainer) is caveat emptor -- 4-for-59 in 2026 with 4 seconds and 4 thirds and never won more than 8% since 2009, and is winless in 10 starts this meet. Yet he also trains Ratu Jawa, another bad tripper and a longshot that ran well last week. Miel ET Citron is 0-for-5 but speed figures have improved incrementally and a game sixth in SAR3 on August 12 in a 5.5-furlong turf sprint. Will be boxcar odds again but I'd be willing to use if entered. (Click horse's name above for head-on replay; watch #6 wearing neon pink cap and dotted silks.)

• Whatever It Takes: Professional 2YO debut August 14, SAR6, maiden special weight. Watch #2 on the replay link. Bumped before first turn, then slight check/bobble early backstretch, bottled in, mild 3-wide move into stretch, then ran well for third; greener in early stages but improved late race, wheel back during the final week(s).

There was nothing notable to add from August 19-23 and so it's unlikely I'll add new horses to the list.

Big Week Ahead

Last week was fairly quiet on the Saratoga bad-trip circuit, with Gum (+9.08) winning stylishly over Grace of Monaco (-$4) in Wednesday's finale. 

Mrs. NJ Horseplayer and I were in Saratoga but couldn't make it to the track on time to witness in person. Instead, we attended on Thursday (hit the early Pick 4 -- paid a measly $21 on a $4.50 ticket and still couldn't scratch out a profit for the day but had fun dressed up in the BEST Backstretch box) -- and the first half of Friday before heading with friends to Vermont for the rest of the weekend. 

A notional $2 win-place bet on Gum and GoM rendered a $1.08 profit on $8 wagered -- nothing to write home about but still a positive ROI (+26%) and 3-for-7 record during this exercise.

Ratu Jawa wisely scratched at 50-1 from Friday's feature and is among, count 'em, five from my bad trip list that are entered this Thursday and Friday, when I'll be back on track (this time with The Saratogian's Wise Owl and RedRockorBust), and these will be key to my (mis)fortunes this week. I'll use them as keys in multirace wagers and in higher-denomination win-place wagers.

As a reminder (some notes copied from prior posts and observations)...

Thursday, August 20

• Race 2: Hong Kong Phooey (8-1) - "Lower-level sort but trip notes COMPLETELY understated being cut off from gate, checking badly and falling 15 lengths behind in 5.5f off-turf sprint in mud; but horse continued to work and responded to Flavian (Prat) well, miraculous 4th. Is potentially useful as turf or off-turf play." A bit of postscript:
  
  
• Prat rides again for trainer Rudy Rodriguez, 5.5 furlongs on turf, post 7 of 8 
• HKP draws post 7 of 8 and is trying the "non-winners of two lifetime" condition a fifth time but at least fits this group, which includes 3 facing winners a first time and 3 facing winners only a second time. Thursday's start will be HKP's 10th and most were against stiffer competition where the connections overshot the horse's potential. 

• Race 8: River Tay (10-1) - "Dylan Davis had rail throughout on August 2, race 4, kept inside and made bad move trying to pass leader in stretch on rail instead of going to open 2-3 path; cost the horse the race + place where the winner came from the back and easily won; keen horse who is capable, always tries; play back later in meet. Subject to a back trip, jockey's decision."
  
  
• Davis rides again on Thursday for trainer Bruce Brown, 5.5 furlongs on turf, post 4 of 9
• Cutback from 9 furlongs to 5.5 furlongs may confuse, but River Tay is 1-for-2 at this distance and is 5-for-21 lifetime on turf. It's a 9-horse field where none jump out. 
• River Tay also hasn't had a published work since the August 2 race, but I suspect that amount of distance provided enough foundation for Thursday's sprint.
• RT is a closer in a field with enough pace to chase; 10-1 is well worth the gamble.

Friday, August 21

(Will update once odds posted and entries final)

• Race 3: Romala
• Race 8: Ratu Jawa
• Race 10: Coach of the Year

Bosun Win on Sunday Lifts Bad-Trip ROI...and Additions

Of the five "bad-trip" horses I had identified as playable next out at Sarataga this past week, two (Bosun and Bottas) won, two finished a close third (All Star Leigh and Sky Low Low), and one never lifted his feet in his second lifetime start (Ed Charles). 

The net result on the five notional $2 win-place bets ($20 total) recommended here is a 31% ROI.  

Bosun won the finale (replay) Sunday (SAR 11) from slightly off the pace and Bottas (replay) did the same on Friday in similar fashion. Both went off as underlays.

The Week Ahead for Bad Trippers

Mr. and Mrs. NJ Horseplayer are making the trip to Saratoga with friends and to hang with the Wise Owl, and will be on track Thursday and much of Friday. Please drop a line if in the neighborhood.

A few horses that I identified in Maybe I'm Trippin' are entered this week, including Gum (9-2) and a horse I accidently left off the initial list (Grace of Monaco, 20-1) in Wednesday's finale (SAR 9). At the time of writing, I'm inclined to side with the latter second time trying turf and stretching out to a longer distance, but in the spirit of this exercise may notionally play both $2 win-place.  

On Friday, Ratu Jawa is entered in a $200,000 stake (SAR 9) - an enormous jump from allowance for a runner with one lifetime victory. 

I'll update the page if others are entered on Sunday (not yet available).

Additions to the Bad Trippers List

Again, with rudimentary notes from my Equibase stable.

Grace of Monaco: July 12, SAR5, 3rd LT start, 1x turf; deep field, was cut off then boxed in from gate, and then ran next 4 furlongs under complete hammer lock, was hemmed in on rail, never found opening, checked a few times, but made a nice shift out 1f from finish and passed a few; sense there's talent and may like turf, willing to give a shot next out. 

Market Timing: Stuck on rail SAR7 on August 6, under relative hammer lock most of SAR7 August 6, lightly raced (3x), looks good enough to step forward w/better luck.

Mo Misery: Chart understates trouble of hitting gate, moving 2-3x into first turn and seemingly almost tossing Junior Alvarado, who going into the first turn was bounced around by his horse, even having to sit on the saddle at one point, and sizeable check plus second smaller one in stretch but ran gangbusters late for third once free; two prior were dirt sprint so maybe turf rout is this one's strength.

Motorcycle Cop: Missed break SAR2 on August 6 from post 11 in a two-turn debut race, spotted field 15 lengths; sat patiently second-to-last thru backstretch then nice move second turn, way wide stretch but game 6th (just 1.5 lengths off fourth place), nice gallop out; perhaps a great learning experience; may be playable second start.

Nordic Fyre: Stumbled start SAR4 on August 9 and was cut off badly by horse that went nose to ground, spotted sprint field a ton but regained composure and grabbed third at 21-1 passing tired foes; think he could win at right price in soft spot, will be dismissed again.

Rufus the Red: Awful break August 7, SAR6, debut; checked a little bit but got into stride into turn and in stretch before flattening; could step forward with better start

Sunday Trip Horses

It's early stages, but my "bad trip" horses (see August 3 post) at Saratoga are 1-for-3 thus far in their next-out race, producing an 18.7% return on investment on a notional $2 win-place bet.

• Sky Low Low, race 10, August 6: 3rd of 12, beaten three-quarters of a length (see Saving Ground Matters). Will keep on my list and potentially elevate next time with jockey upgrade. (-$4)
• Ed Charles, race 6, August 7: 10th of 12, some early interest but looked gassed. Will keep tabs as it was only his second lifetime race as a two-year-old. (-$4)
• Bottas, race 9, August 7: 1st of 7, perfect stalking trip and won a Grade 2 by almost two lengths. Will continue to monitor. (+$14.44)
• (Alakan shipped to Virginia for race 6 at Colonial Downs on Saturday, August 8, and finished second. I didn't play as this exercise is intended to focus solely on horses running at Saratoga.)

Three bad-trip horses are entered Sunday's and we'll continue with notional $2 win-place. 

The first is unlikely to run as he'll only get into the race if it's scratched off turf and shifted to the dirt track (MTO). The latter two are unsurprising favorites after their prior races.

• Race 2: #9, Commitment Fund (MTO), 8/5: Not the least bit surprised he'd be favorite after July 5 debut and also that he's being stretched out from sprint debut.
• Race 5: #8, All Star Leigh, 5/2: Another two-year old race so hopefully horse doesn't bounce vs July 16 debut.
• Race 11: #9, Bosun, 7/2: My "more confident" play relative to All Star Leigh, especially if the rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz is confirmed. Hopeful the price drifts up a bit in a competitive 10-horse field.

Good luck if playing along!

Saving Ground Matters

Close but no cigar with my first "bad-trip horse" result yesterday as Sky Low Low was game in defeat, finishing third by three-quarters of a length in the finale at Saratoga. 

Especially in such a low-level race ($50k maiden claiming), if ever there was a case to be made that (a) getting an early lead or, mostly pertinently in the case of Sky Low Low, (b) saving ground is critical, yesterday's race 10 is proof. Check the chart.

A bit of rudimentary photographic evidence before I log into my real work...and proof why winner Intothewilderness' jockey Jose Ortiz wins 20%+ of his races whereas Sky Low Low's Katie Davis wins at 5%. (BTW, runner-up Italianne, put in a great spot throughout - forwardly place, saved ground along the rail - was ridden by Irad Ortiz, another 20%+ winner.)

Sky Low Low got a cleaner trip yesterday in terms of avoiding trouble found in her race prior, but the difference between third and winning, and less than one length, was Davis going wide and Ortiz saving ground for a late rail burst. 

Here are four screenshots at various parts of the race. 

The first is in the backstretch with Sky Low Low (#10) already at least six wide and Intothewilderness dead last but within striking distance, avoiding issues, and closer to the rail.

The second is going into the second turn. Again, #10 widest and #8 about the skim the rail.

Below, they're turning for home. Sky Low Low made a huge rush (could classify as a "huge middle move") yet still outside while Intothewilderness seizes the rail and rushes by three tired foes; best setup imaginable for a turf closer.

The finish line. Self explanatory.

The moral is that, especially at the lowest levels on turf where fractions matter, Sky Low Low wasted so much ground relative to the top two finishers that it cost the horse a win in its 11th start. 

As a handicapper, you can only put in the work. I had identified a troubled-trip horse capable of winning next out, which was the case here at almost 14-1. 

The horse ran a "winning race" but still finished third. 

Bettors were astute. The horse went off more than 2x its morning line.

Hence, zero return on a notional $2 win-place wager + a cash wager. 

This afternoon we'll see how things go for Ed Charles (race 6) and Bottas (race 9) - two horses (see prior post) I'm more bullish about than Sky Low Low and where my real wagers will be higher. 

Best of luck to anyone playing!