So Happy About the 2026 Kentucky Derby

The last Kentucky Derby winner I picked was Maximum Security in 2019.

Alright, he was disqualified after crossing the wire first after a suspect decision, but the moral of the story is to take mine and most peoples' selections with a grain of salt. It's a grueling race to handicap.

Anything can happen in a 20-horse field, and this year I've avoided going down the rabbit hole of excessive handicapping beyond watching select Kentucky Derby prep replays and narrowing down to eight horses capable of finishing in the top three in Saturday's Run for the Roses and reasons why you should consider them in your wagers, ranked in order of preference.

Two potential winners ("A" horses)

#8, So Happy (15-1): Versatility will do this Mark Glatt trainee well. Wins at three distances in four lifetime starts and in different pace scenarios, from blazing to dawdling. Mike Smith has been aboard all four starts and his only loss was in his first race a two turns, yielding late but finishing third. I sense he'll be near the pace and view two-time Derby winner "Money Mike" as an asset. If nothing else, I'll be rooting hard for Glatt, whose wife died abruptly in February at 57 due to heart failure. In this environment, we could all use a feel-good story.

 #6, Commandment (6-1): A lot of "experts" are high on Bill Mott trainee Chief Wallabee (see below) but that's recency bias after the Mott-Junior Alvarado 2025 Derby victory. Commandment is better and beat Chief Wallabee head-to-head 2x, including this year's Grade 2 Fountain of Youth (FOY) and Grade 1 Florida Derby. To me, Commandment looks like the perfect stalker who can grind out a win and not have to be right on the pace. Lots of fight in this one. Sense he'll hold his 6-1 morning line, which is great value. The knock is that jockey Luis Saez has yet to ride, as previous winning riders Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat went to other horses. No matter. Saez is a world-class rider and this is a gutsy runner. The knock may be that people tend to be high on Gulfstream Park prep winners annually, but you have to go back to 2013 to find the last FOY-Florida Derby winner dressed in roses (Orb).

Second Tier ("B" horses - some things need to go their way)

#11, Incredibolt (20-1): Very hit-or-miss sort. Two stylish come-from-behind stakes wins in the Street Sense in late October and the Virginia Derby in mid-March. Granted, fields were nothing to write home about, but his late kick in the aforementioned were eye-catching. Riley Mott may have the horse on the rise here for his Derby training debut whereas pops, Bill, has a game horse (Chief Wallabee) that only boasts a maiden victory but will draw a lot of wagering. 

#15, Emerging Market (15-1): I'll hate myself, again, after the race ends in giving another promising Chad Brown horse a serious Derby look, but this one can hit the board. Only his third lifetime start after debut maiden win in Tampa, followed by Grade 2 Louisiana Derby win in mid-March. The downside is he outlasted a competitor there that's 30-1 on Saturday and may be closer to 40-1, but Prat stays aboard and appeared to be restraining EM in the early stages before letting lose late to prevail by a head. It's also hard to discount using America's best jockey somewhere on the ticket.

Third Tier ("C" horses - a lot of things need to go their way)

#1, Renegade (4-1): Morning line favorite, which is insane no matter the quality. Rail horses do not and will not win the Derby in the existing 20-horse configuration (see Lookin at Lucky). Rail horses get a little more relief than in the past, but Renegade will have a lot to contend with to make the first turn in one piece. That said, the Irad Ortiz-Todd Pletcher jockey-trainer combo is nothing to sneeze at and they've demolished good fields in prepping for the Derby. I'd like him more with a better draw, and were the speed figures better. So you can have him at 4-1, or 5-1, or 10-1. Not my cup of tea on the win end.

#20, Fulleffort (20-1): Saturday will be this Brad Cox trainee's first race on dirt, but he's continually improved and is a mere four lengths from having a perfect 7-for-7 record on turf and synthetic. I sense people may fall asleep on this one from the wide post but here's another stalker/closer type who might be heard from late for minor awards and could spice up payouts as an overlay. 

#5, Right to Party (30-1): I typically hate Aqueduct horses in the Derby but hear me out on why he can hit the board. After being squeezed badly from the gate in February's one-turn Gotham, the horse made up much ground to finish a determined third. Next out, he got going a little too late but ran like gangbusters to finish second in the Wood Memorial on April 4 and would have won were the race two furlongs longer. Again, not normally my cup of tea and with a relatively inexperienced rider vs. the rest of the jockeys on Saturday but believe the Derby distance is conducive to his running style. 

#12, Chief Wallabee (8-1): I'm using him at the bottom of my trifecta and see third as ceiling. Maybe adding blinkers on Saturday is the winning recipe, but I'm not a huge fan of horses unable (to this point) to outduel foes in the stretch. It happened twice here, which is cause for concern, though like others I respect the connections. Think Alydar. 

NJ Horseplayer's Ill-Fated Trifecta Ticket

Perhaps I'd serve society better making an $18 donation to charity but here's my structure, consistent with the above ABC analysis: 6, 8 with 6, 8, 11, 15 with 1, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 15, 20.

Caveat emptor as the legendary Mike Brady once advised his son Greg.

NHC 26: A Few Lengths from the Money

There's no glory in finishing 461st of 828 in NHC26, but several positive takeaways from my fifth NHC effort. 

The trip started horribly, with a TSA sick-out prompting jetBlue flight cancellation from Newark six hours before takeoff, a miraculous shift to JFK, delays, and 3:30 a.m. hotel arrival. 

I barely slept, considering the travel after-effects, contest anticipation, and 9 a.m. start to NHC26, and it showed on Day 1. 

I banked a mere $23.80 on a chalky Friday where half of winners in my 16 races (6 mandatory, 10 optional) were post-time favorites at average odds of 1.6-to-1, but wasn't dejected only $55 off the 83rd-place goal for Sunday-championship qualification and as I somehow maintained strategic focus of targeting vulnerable favorites while avoiding action-oriented impulse plays. 

* Denotes mandatory; first 6 races

Saturday was far better, with 8.2-to-1 and 10.7-to-1 winners in two of the eight mandatories, a 9-1 place, and five near-miss thirds including three cap types that simply didn't go my way. I might have been a Sunday qualifier with a bit more luck in two of these. Here's the replay evidence.

Aqueduct, Race 3, #6 Unbridled Bomber (18.06-to-1): The two longest shots in a sketchy 6-horse field made sense; just went the wrong way as Centavo was closer to the pace to score at 17.75-to-1 and my pick missed second by a neck, costing at least $10 of place money.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 5, #10 Radar Loop (19.5-to-1): A gut punch. Great stalking trip and had enough to win but squeezed badly in the stretch by the top two and lost all action before edged for third. There was a lengthy inquiry (stewards' notes lend little to this) and I believe grounds from the head-on of a double DQ had Radar Loop held for third. I was disappointed but not waylaid.  

Aqueduct, Race 7, #5 Blue Forty Two (21.25-to-1): No qualms, just too belated an effort and the favorite won at 0.67-to-1. Contest players love big fields, but I cite this and AQ3 above as opportunities to beat short-priced favorites in small fields, which should lend well to cleaner trips in optional races where the majority of contestants may be inclined to take a pass.   

Santa Anita Park, Race 3, #2 Quereme Pass (9-to-1): Not much to say. Second best. Great trip, nose beat. Missed opportunity for $20+ of win money.

Colonial Downs, Race 10, #5 Sharp Tones (28.3-to-1): On the flipside of the above "clean trips in short fields" logic, Joe Rocco's ride was abysmal. This one still gets under my skin. A YouTube replay wasn't available, but here's one from Bloodhorse. Rocco easily cost the three lengths needed to win by inexplicably running up on heels in the first furlong then completely losing patience top of the stretch with an erratic wide move. A sound optional play but a clearly unfavorable trip.

Gulfstream Park, Race 12, #10 Coco Abarrio (15.1-to-1): The top two finishers of 10 were 18-to-1 and 33-to-1, so my logic was correct. No qualms with performance but missed decent place money in this wide-option optional contest race. (Spanish-language replay.)

Santa Anita Park, Race 7, #10 Centrodelantero (4.4-to-1): One of the later races and a 9-horse field but sitting on a few late bullets, I made this more logical play in the seventh of eight Day 2 mandatories. Great trip, got the lead 2x in stretch but a nose-beat third in a 3-horse photo. The potential $16-$18 of bankroll would have positioned me to play less of a reach in my final two picks instead of 38-to-1 and 46-to-1.

The outcomes stunk, but on a patient handicapping front, I was satisfied with my Saturday effort, identifying several opportunities to strike with less popular selections. I believe it's key to contest success, no matter the format.

The table below shows the average odds of my Saturday selections was far higher than Friday's, yet several were in contention, and surely enough where my outcome could have been different with some racing luck. Only 25% of winners in my 20 Saturday races were favorites vs. 50% on Friday, so I mapped out appropriate opportunities.

* Denotes mandatory; first 8 races

NHC26 proved to be my best finish, sadly, but continued progress from NHC25. I'll continue to consider live-money tournaments at Monmouth Park and maybe Laurel Park, but target the bigger Horse Tourneys tournaments before online NHC events despite their slightly lower-cost entry points. 

The NHC is always a great time and it's gratifying to qualify for such a tremendous test, but with the prize pool flattening and players' gifts deteriorating (e.g., from a $100 casino chip per qualifier and open bar to a cheapo backpack) by the year, I envision no change in my bankroll to make it to NHC27. 

Fortune (and Lessons) in the Flo-Cal

After a career-best fifth-place finish (of 249) in Horse Tourney's Flo-Cal Faceoff, I let the dust settle before studying my decisions and outcome, worth $14,639 of winnings. Not a bad return on my winning $28 feeder to secure a first seat and $146 invested thereafter to try (unsuccessfully) to procure a second seat.

The format was a notional $2 win-place wager on all 38 races on the Saturday and Sunday cards at Gulfstream Park (Florida) and Santa Anita (California), with caps of 20-1 on win and 10-1 on place. 

It's consistent with most online handicapping contests and akin to the format for the National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas on March 13-15, for which I've qualified yet where there are a lot more races to pick from and optional contest bets.

Flo-Cal is a 38-race grind over two days that requires patience, clean trips, luck here and there, and identifying bad favorites vs. competitent long-shots. Timing also matters, especially in the latter stages of any contest and particularly one where there were only two boxcar race winners, one at each track.

In the end, I amassed a $198.60 bankroll ($2.61 ROI) with six winners and four place finishers; adding in seven show runners, 17 of my 38 picks hit the board. 

Saturday started on the wrong foot as my alternate selection (players pick a "backup" each race in the event the primary is a late scratch) Mis Brunellas won the opener at Gulfstream and produced a day-high $35.80. Primary pick Golden Choice was a game third as jockey Junior Alvarado picked a wider path instead of tracking the winner along the rail, then checked a bit in the stretch - perhaps enough to cost a placing. The positive was that I at least found a competent horse at 14-1. The negative was being $35.80 out of the lead one race into it. 

I did connect for $22.80 with Alverado-ridden Roar Ready, winner of Gulfstream 3, and followed with place scores on short prices in races 4 (second by a neck) and 6 (second to 2-5 winner) before going 0-6 for the rest of the Florida card.

Turning to Cali, 10-1 Church Lady netted $12.80 of place money despite an incredibly troubled/nearly catastrophic race 3 second. Race 5 produced $25.80 through Nancy Griffith, who made a late surge to win by a nose at almost 9-1 under Edwin Maldonado. I went winless over Santa Anita's final four, and switching off race 6 winner Potente at the last second cost me $5.30 (and in hindsight around $3,000 more of winnings as I finished $4 out of fourth). 

But no crying. After Day 1 of grinding, I was inside the top 100 with $66.60 and not so far off the leaders after 21 fairly chalky race outcomes. It gave me hope of staying in it and catching a few big prices without stabbing all Sunday.

Turning to Sunday, I'll go to the grave that 19-1 Turbo Fire was good enough to win rather than finish third in the second from Gulfstream (race replay) if not for a hesitant midrace ride by the green Juan Rodriguez, but it was a zero for me albeit a confidence booster from a handicapping competency perspective. 

I caught 3-2 Snowyte two races later in a short field for $7.20 to move the needle forward, and pulled a Costanza (e.g., doing the opposite of my normal tendencies) two races later in GP6, supporting jockey Jesus Rios - historically a recipe for disaster for me - aboard 33-1 Mario's Sweet Girl in a bottom-level claimer. 

True to form, the jockey did the opposite of what the past performances suggested as a recipe for success...sprint to the lead and hope. 

Instead, after an incredibly alert break from the outside post, Rios reined in MSG back to fifth, surely a precursor to such a bomber dropping anchor, I thought. 

Yet he had horse and astutely kept a wide path (the dirt course rail at GP was completely dead all weekend) before drawing away like Secretariat to, finally, produce a contest bomber and $64 "capper" payout. The only one. 

As an avid race replay watcher, with a straight face (dare me; I can produce the texts to friends saying as much) what caught my eye about MSG in a bad field of 1x winners was her maiden win on November 27 at a similar distance. She handled the rail, rated well, accepted a challenge in the stretch, and finished confidently with a win at 20-1 that afternoon, seen here. Watch the 1:  

Not to mention that the third-place finisher that day, Souffle on Fire, won in a feeder I participated in Friday. I sensed MSG's 30-1 morning line was awful and capitalized. It moved me into the top 10, but with what seemed like an eternity of contest races remaining.

I took the odds-on favorite in the next (GP7) to net a generous $6.40 from Paris Surprise, who won stylishly, and then $3.40 of tough-trip place money on Mr. Leasure(sic) in the Santa Anita opener to seize sixth place. 

From there, however, it was a backpedal - 0 for 6 including a horrific ride by Hector Berrios on 6-1 first-timer Acoustic Kitty in SA5. Watch the 7:

A **** ton of horse. The check at the start wasn't a game-ender as Berrios guided Acoustic Kitty to the rail, but then grew impatient after getting shut off and jerked the horse into the six path before a belated rush for third. I was frustrated. Acoustic Kitty was clearly best, and I remembered that a day earlier that trainer John Sadler scratched her from a similar, presumably harder spot based on a 12-1 morning line on Saturday vs. 6-1 in Sunday's fifth race. 

Part of me thought luck had run out and I was going to crap out. 

The rational part saw three more good opportunities.

Not really liking anyone in 6-horse race 6, I settled on a bad 4-5 favorite, The Big Cheeseola. It isn't a move I'd have made as a less-experienced player when I'd have gone for broke rather than move the chains but I didn't want to chase as I saw viable long shots in the penultimate and final races. She survived for second, so I held my nose and took the $2.40 to cling to 20th - the final money spot ($1,500). 

Race 7 was a bottom-level claiming sprint with a bad favorite. My wheelhouse for finding a price.

The 8-horse field was bad, and typical of California tracks, the bettors pounded the favorite. 

On the other hand, my horse Little Tinker Elle was 30-1 on the morning line, which for my money looked atrociously off considering three convincing wins and a close second in her past four starts including at the tougher allowance level, albeit on the Los Alamitos quarterhorse circuit.

I was confident she'd at least break to the lead. The question was whether she'd hold it going longer than the 4.5 furlongs in the four prior races. 

Did she ever. Watch the 7:

Little Tinker Elle's strides clearly shortened toward the finish line, but she was so far ahead of the pack and won by almost two to give me $48.60 and fourth place with one to go. I felt vindicated sticking with my view that prices were to be had and to remain patient. 

Sitting about $30 out of first and $117,000 of prize money but with several others breathing down my neck, I debated how best to approach the finale. Side with the favorite, who I liked, in a 13-horse field and maybe move up a spot for a bigger prize than fourth (and potentially Day 2 money; prizes to the four highest bankrolls each day), or find a logical low-double-digit runner.

Beyond going for the win, the logic in the latter is equally defensive in contest play, the idea being to "block" others lower in the standings from passing. 

Race 8 offered plenty of long shots; some unplayable, and so I narrowed down to two or three and landed semi-confidently on 16-1 Clubhouse Bride, despite jockey Tyler Baze's 1-42 win rate. He's sort of a West Coast version of the aforementioned Jesus Rios; e.g., not the most dependable. 

Long story short, Clubhouse Bride looked the same as 6-7 of the other Cal breds. Yet from her troubled trip in Race 4 on December 28 (watch the 10 in the video below), I sensed that without an early check that afternoon and four-wide trip in the turn and through the stretch, she could compete with a clean trip.

As misfortune would have it, similar story Sunday with 2-3 light checks in the backstretch before a pretty severe one behind foes into the turn, before a competitive finish. Watch the 5:

Was Clubhouse Bride good enough? Finishing fourth only three lengths off the winner, I'd argue that a clean trip would have meant everything. Especially to me, since I'd have catapulted to first place. 

But them's the breaks and I'm not going to complain about a five-figure score in the lead-up to NHC. 

My Flo-Cal handicapping and plays were strong, and part of this writing exercise is not to gloat but to stow away for later reading and as a reminder when faced with similar situations in events as small as a feeder contest or as big as the multimillion-dollar NHC, which is just five weeks away, that (1) take the free squares when they make sense, (2) remain patient, and (3) focus on handicapping and well-supported picks instead of playing the leaderboard. 

Its Satisfactual

The monkey's off my back as far as Monmouth Park live bankroll tournaments go, having finished second in Saturday's $300 handicapping contest to punch my ticket to NHC26 in Las Vegas in March 2026, along with a nice cash haul that helps to make up for years of futility in these events. 

The key was four-year-old filly Its Satisfactual in the Tampa Bay Downs finale. More on that later.

My last top five result in a Monmouth contest was almost five years ago to the day, a fifth-place finish with an even higher final bankroll than Saturday's $1,185.80. (Players' starting bankroll is $150 in these $300 buy-ins, and the 109 participants had to make at least 10 win, place, and/or show wagers of $15 or more (no cap) on races from Aqueduct, Tampa, and Gulfstream Park).

Something I've written about but have had difficulty practicing, I played with patience, sitting (and starting, success-wise) relatively chilly through the first half of the card and awaiting value as the day progressed. It helped, as 9 of the 15 winners of races 1-5 were favorites. Just two ended off the board. 

I squandered $65 of my bankroll (0-for-4, with one small show-bet score) before hitting the first of three prize-winning wagers. If I recall, the contest leader at that time was barely above $300 -- fairly low when considering it's common to find at least one player closer to four figures on a big early wager. 

Irish Fortune was an incredibly playable first-timer at 19-to-1 in the sixth at Aqueduct, an $80k NY-bred maiden for two year olds. Post 7 wasn't an issue, and I also thought the son of Central Banker's work tab suggested early speed. Jaime Rodriguez quickly seized the lead and never looked back versus the field of 12, pulling away in the stretch for a nearly four-length win to pay $40.02 for a $2 win mutuel. With a $15 minimum win wager, my bankroll improved to $370.30 and into the top five.

I missed on my next four plays, giving back $70 but meeting the contest's 10-bet requirement and still with no one on the leaderboard pulling away. The next three plays were in fairly rapid succession as post positions at the three tracks got tight, with the first in race 8 from Tampa a successful $15 win wager on 8.9-to-1 Litigant from gate 13 in a 12-horse field to run my total to $433.50. 

The next, $100 win on 9.4-to-1 Sunshine Lily in Aqueduct's finale, went kaput though the horse ran decently and finished fourth behind the two favorites. 

With three contest races remaining, a $333.80 bankroll, and a top-two finish still within reach, I bet $60 to win and $40 to show on 16.2-to-1 Its Satisfactual in Tampa's ninth. The field of nine featured a lot of need-the-lead types, which I speculated might favor closers, even though it's hard to be too confident in such types in low-level claimers. 

Something told me, however, that an inside draw (post 2), familial connections (jockey Skyler and trainer Kelly Spanabel), and competent efforts vs. tougher in 2025 at Gulfstream, Colonial Downs, and the Maryland tracks gave Its Satisfactual a shot. Skyler got the four-year-old filly off to a clean start and saved some ground before making an eye-opening wide (e.g., lost ground) move into the homestretch before beating bet-against favorite Life Advice to the finish line by a neck. The win inflated my bankroll to $1,385.80, good for second place with two races left at Gulfstream.

I chickened out by not betting $40 more to win on Its Satisfactual just before the gate opened as contemplated, which cost me a potential first-place finish as my bankroll would have been over $2,000, though that's crying over spilled milk. 

That said, going into the contest finale (Gulfstream, race 11), I sat about $450 each below first and above third place, and decided to bet enough to produce enough bankroll to win yet not fall from second and my fifth lifetime NHC berth. My $100 win-show bet on 7-to-1 Souper Forces lost, but in hindsight it was a seemingly good defensive play on a bet for folks lower on the leaderboard to make hay. The second choice edging out a 9-to-2 also probably helped as I finished $270 above third place.

In the end, it was my best performance ever in a Monmouth Park live-money contest, and I'll be greedy and try again on January 3. 

I went 4-for-14 on wagers, including two significant long-shot overlays, which I've long considered the key to winning in these types of events. I'm more comfortable in mythical $2 win-place formats that align with the NHC but use this post as a reminder that biding time in handicapping contests no matter the format can prove valuable, as also evidenced at NHC25 with high prices winning late at less-played tracks like Turfway Park.

Stay tuned to this space in the months ahead as I turn attention to Vegas in March
. 

Belmont Pick: Sovereignty

After attending the Preakness for the first time to see Old Hilltop before its sorely needed renovation, I'm questioning my sanity a bit going against favored Journalism in the Belmont. 

Preakness view

Journalism's win in the second leg of the 2025 Triple Crown was one of the best individual efforts witnessed in person, and no doubt his runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby was admirable.

Yet with Derby winner Sovereignty trading at 5-1 as of 7:15 p.m. ET in Friday's advanced wagering, he's too intriguing to pass as such an overlay versus his 2-1 morning line and will be my win bet. 

The 8-horse field expected to enter the starting gate for the second Belmont at Saratoga is top heavy, with the winner likely among Journalism and Sovereignty but bettors high also on Baeza (third in the Derby).

Please see my quick thoughts on each below. 

Note, too, that Saratoga took a lot of rain on Friday, producing a muddy main track and yielding turf, so check back in by noon on Saturday for key plays on the undercard once I have a better feel for track conditions and scratches. [SATURDAY UPDATE: Belmont Stakes field intact, but races 9 and 12 have been cancelled, others originally carded for turf are switched to the main track, and Saratoga is listed as sloppy; hence no big undercard suggestions.]

2025 Belmont Stakes Field

2. Sovereignty (2-1): Derby champ passing on the Preakness was a disappointment but trainer Bill Mott protected the horse for this spot and I think capitalizes. Sovereignty's two-year-old debut was at Saratoga last August and a good learning experience, while showing he's not averse to the track. Proven at any distance, the 2-furlong cutback from Belmont's downstate 12-furlong configuration is a plus. Wins on dry or sloppy tracks as seen in the Derby and I expect is fit and will be running late. Your 2025 winner.

7. Journalism (8-5): Again, ran brilliantly in the Preakness; glad I decided the night before to grab a ticket on the apron near where he was jammed between horses before exploding to catch Gosger at the wire. But let's be real, the field was midling at best and he had to grind to beat almost a 20-1 shot. Price will be too short for my liking as a win bet but will hit the board.

4. Uncaged (30-1): One of trainer Todd Pletcher's two entrants and in early betting the longest shot at 25-1 but he's 2-for-2 on muddy surfaces, both from off the pace in blazingly fast races and including his debut win at Saratoga last August 3. Ran an awful sixth of nine in the Peter Pan on May 10 off of Lasix, which he'll run without again on Saturday, but I like the horse-for-course (of sorts) angle to spice up prospective payouts if one of the top two wins. Using in the trifecta and maybe exacta if one of the favorites has an off performance. 

6. Baeza (4-1): Early action signals he'll be too overbet for me as a win prop, nor am I enamored that he's 0-for-4 outside the maiden ranks. Uncaged at least has a $100,000 allowance win. I won't dismiss Baeza's Derby effort but sense bettor overenthusiam that hurts his betting odds. Too short if 3-1.

5. Crudo (15-1): The second Pletcher horse and on paper the more logical. Dominated the Sir Barton at Pimlico on Preakness Day but the upgrade from restricted stakes to Grade 1 is dubious. If speed holds up on a wet track on Saturday, I'd elevate his chances to hit the board yet still not win. John Velazquez has been riding lights out this week though I sense this horse (owned by Bobby Flay) is a cut below.

3. Rodriguez (6-1): Bob Baffert trainee who shipped to New York to win the Wood Memorial in April, which is arguably one of the worst Derby preps on the calendar. Finished a distant third to Journalism in the San Felipe in California on March 1 but beat Baeza head-to-head in early January. You'll hear his name a bit early with Crudo but isn't a player. Speed and fade. Pass.

1. Hill Road (10-1): It's perhaps idiotic to go against hometown trainer Chad Brown yet I wonder if he's fast enough to hit the board. Enters off a come-from-behind Grade 3 win in a sluggish Peter Pan at Aqueduct but to me he faced better in the Tampa Bay Derby in March and ran a flat and distant third. If Brown's horse wins, wouldn't be the first time he beat me as a bettor.

8. Heart of Honor (30-1): Bad fifth in the Preakness and again an also-ran. I hope the connections at least enjoy a great meal at Pennell's. 

Clever Preakness Advice - Pass on Black-Eyed Susan Favorites

It's time to turn the page after an uncompetitive set of Kentucky Derby selections and turn attention to the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Of course it won't be captured in 2025 with Derby winner Sovereignty passing on the Preakness. 

Yet it gives nine other horses the opportunity for a significant resume-builder.

Clever Again gets the nod over Derby runner-up Journalism and Sandman on Saturday, and I'll use all three in the Black-Eyed Susan-Preakness daily doubles with 15-1 Princess Aliyah in Friday's feature. 

[Updated on Thursday night with thoughts on Saturday's Pick 6 sequence finishing with the Preakness.]

Preakness Stakes

8. Clever Again (5-1): Connections were patient after 2nd-place debut at Keeneland last April. Stayed off the track for 10 months before maiden-breaker in late February at Oaklawn, then followed that up with another front-running win in the $200k non-graded Hot Springs Stakes. Yet that race was fairly productive, with the second and third finishers finishing third and fifth, respectively, in the Pat Day Mile on Derby day and fourth-place Max Got Excited winning a stake at Oaklawn on May 2. Advantageous post outside of slow-starting Sandman is a plus. It's a clear hike facing three Derby finishers but I sense this son of American Pharoah can step forward and trainer Steve Asmussen has a live long-shot with speed and stamina.

2. Journalism (8-5): Similar to the Kentucky Derby where he finished second, the deserving favorite. Jockey Umberto Rispoli rode a great Derby. Guiding Journalism toward the rail into the first turn after some early jostling. Journalism looked far more comfortable in the backstretch. Slingshot move into the far turn and passed everyone but simply got beat late by Sovereignty. Third-place finisher Baeza's effort flatters Journalism more in this field. Question is whether that effort took too much out of Journalism; two-week turnaround is difficult but we'll assume he's sound.

7. Sandman (4-1): Deep closer who finished seventh in the Derby after no early running. I thought his late-race effort was enough to merit Preakness winner consideration and that he shied some when between foes in the stretch, potentially costing him 1-2 placements. Preakness pace needs to be testy, so the question becomes whether it will be hot enough to benefit Sandman as it did in winning the Arkansas Derby as that field fell apart after a 45.2-second first half mile. That's the hope here. There's quick starters signed on but I'm not sure the early pace is guns ablaze.

6. River Thames (9-2): He'll be a popular pick because, on paper, he lost to Derby champ Sovereignty by just a neck in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth (FoY). Yet peel the onion and it looks like he's not particularly fast, nor does he seem to like kickback. In the FoY and subsequent Grade 1 Bluegrass in April, both jockeys gave up their rail spots and moved River Thames a few paths wide of the frontrunner, losing valuable ground. I'm not sure River Thames so much passed Neoequos (13th in the Derby) in the FoY as that foe faded. From there it looked like smooth sailing to victory before Sovereignty gunned him down to the short first-wire finish. Had Gulfstream used the usual finish line further down the track, it's a 4-5 length loss. Then when asked in the Bluegrass to move from a stalking third, River Thames ran evenly and never looked the winner. Oddsmaker clearly giving a Preakness nod to trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz , but to me minor awards the ceiling.

9. Gosger (20-1): Almost looked more professional in his second-place debut at Gulfstream in mid-December coming off the pace than he did in breaking his maiden in February, where he seemed to be tiring late. Stepped forward from that to win a soft Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in April (the second-place finisher, Bracket Buster, finished 7th in his next out vs allowance company) but it's notable achievement in his third start. Still looks green to me from replay watching but may hit the board. Expect midpack start and maybe passes the faders.

1. Goal Oriented (6-1): There's no other reason this horse is as low as 6-1 beyond trainer Bob Baffert. It's a short price for a runner making his third lifetime start and comes out of an allowance win (the race including the aforementioned Bracket Buster). Baffert jumping 4-5 classes is a bullish signal that Goal Oriented can step forward, but I'm inclined to put him a few pegs below Gosger. Great trainer-jockey (Flavian Prat) combo isn't enough for me to bite on this big a class hike.  

5. Pay Billy (20-1): Maryland-based runner who got into the Preakness by virtue of a semi-controversial and not-so-impressive win in the Tesio at Laurel Park in April. He and another foe almost took out a horse going into the first turn yet wasn't DQ'd and had to hang on for dear life to beat a 22-1 shot to the finish. This is the equivalent of Monmouth Park giving local horses entry to the Haskell by winning smaller stakes. Nice raffle ticket for sure. Maybe an early factor but not a Grade 1 win contender.

3. American Promise (15-1): Lower-echelon distance horse who got a good ride in the Derby and was overbet down to 12-1 but finished 16th of 19. Zero excuse that day as jockey Nik Juarez saved ground and got his horse toward the lead in the backstretch before AP dropped anchor and showed he isn't Triple Crown quality. Virginia Derby prep in March was over-flattering (beat 17th-place Kentucky Derby finisher Render Judgement that day). Figure they'll wing it toward the front end again at Pimlico and cross fingers the horse gets brave and no one matches. Not my type.

4. Heart of Honor (12-1): New shooter who enters off a second-place finish in the UAE Derby to Admire Daytona, who finished dead last in the Kentucky Derby. Not touching this one with your money as Dubai shippers continue to disappoint in Triple Crowns and will be off the board here. 

Black-Eyed Susan Stakes 

The race, set to go off at 5:44 p.m. ET on Friday, has no one that belongs in the same conversation as Kentucky Oaks winner Good Cheer. 

That's why it's worth taking a chance on long-shots Princess Aliyah and Reply. 

One boasts a notable stakes win and the other seems like an up-and-comer.

We'll try to beat the morning-line favorites. 

2. Princess Aliyah (15-1): Consider upset prospect. Real grinder that should benefit from a return to two turns. Two races back on April 19, she sat just off the pace and wore them down in the stretch to win the Valley of the Vapors Stakes at Oaklawn at 8-1. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas tried her two weeks later in the 8 Belles (Grade 2) on Kentucky Oaks day but the cutback to seven-eighths of a mile and one turn was a detriment. Fractions were blistering and Princess Aliyah kept up a bit but faded about halfway. It looks like a toss, and a possible drop in class versus this field. Career-best speed figure is also tops. If Nik Juarez works out a clean break and engages her early, bombs away!

7. Reply (8-1): Local horse with only two lifetime starts including a game second in the Weber City Miss at Laurel Park in mid-April. It's hard to see a horse this inexperienced winning but trainer Brittany Russell has 9 wins, 1 second, and 1 third with 15 starters in the past 14 days per Equibase, and Irad Ortiz rides for Repole Stables. Upside potential is there.  

4. Runnin N Gunnin (5-2): Vulnerable favorite. Outperformed Princess Aliyah by 3.5 lengths in the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn in March but never competed with the top two, finishing third by almost 10 lengths. Wins in New Mexico, Texas, and Indiana flatter but those were against soft competition. In her other four races, losses were between 6-19 lengths. Not buying at this price, especially with zero apparent early speed and having to rely on a contested pace where foes melt down. Probably hits the board and will use underneath Princess Aliyah and Reply.

5. Kinzie Queen (10-1): Also-ran in the Fantasy, finishing fifth in her only graded stake. She's 2-for-12 lifetime, mostly against optional-claimers. Rider change to Derby winning jockey Junior Alvarado could be a plus considering Kinzie Queen's closing style, though I sense we're looking at minor-awards ceiling. Not sure how she does, too, off of Lasix medication.

8. Amarth (4-1): Faded late at 23-1 in the Busher Stakes after a big sweeping move into the stretch, where it looked like she was a shoe-in winner before dropping anchor. Is 0-for-3 as a three-year old. Two sharp workouts, but seems to lack stamina, and adding distance in the Black-Eyed Susan raises doubt.

6. Paris Lily (8-1): Held sway over Liam in the Dust in an optional claimer at Keeneland in April, gunning to the lead and going wire-to-wire for a win in the slop. This is another one with two low-rung wins. If anything, front-running tactic could prove beneficial. Interestingly, her best race may have been on debut in late September, where she finished a game fourth after a brutally troubled trip into the far turn; fell back over a dozen lengths, settled, and rallied. May need more experience.

3. Margie's Intention (3-1): Beyond the trainer change to Brad Cox, why is she the second choice? Louisiana-bred who hasn't faced open company in five starts, boasts maiden and allowance wins, and ran one-paced seconds in two state-bred stakes. Not a great field here, nor resume, so a Grade 2 win is a lot to ask. I'll gladly fund the post-race blood test if she wins dominantly.

9. Moon Cache (20-1): Ran with late interest to finish third behind Reply in the Weber City Miss, but her two wins in eight starts were against claimers. Not a factor.

1. Liam in the Dust (6-1): Something's amiss. In this gal's 3-year-old debut (Busher) at Aqueduct in March, it looked like she was standing still when passed by Amarth nearing the stretch, then ran a one-paced second to Paris Lily in the optional claimer noted above. A potentially talented horse in need of a long breather. Not touching.

Thoughts on the Preakness Pick 6 Sequence

Race 8 - $150,000 Chick Lange Stakes, 6 furlongs on dirt, 2:48 p.m. ET: The race goes through #8 One Nine Hundred (7-2), who has yet to face winners in his fourth lifetime start but on debut came close to beating stakes winner T Kraft and in his second start finished second to Lafayette Stakes winner Colloquial, who looks like a rising star. The question, like with a lot of these, is whether he can run without Lasix for the first time. I'll take my chances and use him with #7 Faster Gator (6-1), who battled multiple stakes winner Mo Plex hard in the Bayshore in mid-April, sharp-looking two-time winner #3 Ancient World (6-1), and #4 Normandy Coast (12-1). If playing the Pick 6, consider all four. 

Race 9 - $125,000 Jim McKay Turf Sprint, 5 furlongs on turf, 3:30 p.m. ET: The top two win prospects are #6 Coppola (2-1) and #4 Witty (10-1). They're a contrast in styles, with the former a lightning bolt from the gate and the latter a deep closer. My only hesitation in making Witty the top pick is that he seems to perform better at 5.5 furlongs and may need that extra sixteenth of a mile to be a winner. If Witty holds around his 10-1 morning line, I'll make a sizeable win bet. Else exactas with Coppola, who relishes the distance (six wins and 10-for-21 in the money) including stakes wins at this level. To me, any horse that can finish a game fourth of 12 in a prominent Grade 1 (Jaipur in June 2024) is legit. Might be tough as a win bet, though, if bet down closer to even money. I'll also use #5 Determined Kingdom (4-1) and #9 Fore Harp (5-1) in my Pick 5. 

Race 10 - $100,000 Sir Barton Stakes, mile and a sixteenth on dirt, 4:11 p.m. ET: I didn't love anyone in this field, but I'll go with 9-5 favorite #6 Invictus as a multirace-wager single in a field that doesn't knock my socks off. There's a lot to dislike about the favorite, namely that he just broke his maiden on April 8 and had to wait nine months to make that second lifetime start (tried as a 2-year-old at Saratoga last July and finished a well beaten 7th of 10). Winstar Farms thought enough of him to spend $1.2 million at the Keeneland September 2023 yearling sale, so with that sort of investment, patience is understandable in light of a longer-term ownership view. If you watch the replay of his recent win, he broke from the gate in a 7-furlong race like a shot, then settled nicely into a stalking spot before prompting was needed in the stretch to get him to grab the lead and win by 2.5 lengths. Still looked somewhat green in the lane, unsure of which lead to be on, but just before the wire you could see a shift to the proper lead and he exploded a bit. I sense this is a horse on the up, gaining racing intelligence, and will appreciate two turns...and frankly isn't facing the stiffest of competition here. Second choice #1 Crudo (5-2) is another trying winners for the first time, and his debut win (at Keeneland in April, like Invictus') was a lot slower by comparison. Third-choice #7 Hymn (4-1) has a shot, having run competitively 2x at two turns. I'll roll the bones with Invictus.

Race 11 - $100,000 James W. Murray Stakes, 1 mile on turf, 4:53 p.m. ET: This is the second consecutive race where I'm singling a horse in my multirace exotics. #5 End of Romance (9-2) is meant for turf. A game third in the $250,000 Rushaway Stakes on the Turfway Park synthetic in his 3-year-old debut in March, then a late-rushing fifth on turf in a paceless Woodhaven at Aqueduct in April. That closing kick into slow fractions, and a favorable rider change to John Velazquez, should help. I sense the morning line may be too high, with trainer Graham Motion's other horse in the race, #6 Soleil Volant, installed as 7-2 second choice and unable to win in easier spots, so I'm inclined to dismiss. Race favorite (5-2) #7 Reagan's Wit ran second and fourth in his 2025 stakes yet may be overbet. The value is with End of Romance. If for some reason the race is moved to dirt, keep tabs on #4 Barbadian Runner (12-1), who has two overnight stakes wins on the main track; just doesn't look like a turf horse.

Race 12 - $250,000 Grade 3 Dinner Party Stakes, mile and an eighth on turf, 5:52 p.m. ET: This is the most competitive race in the sequence, with six of 13 runners having a shot and #4 Neat (8-1) getting the nod over #6 Balnikhov (9-2) and #13 Trikari (5-2). Pace sets up well for a tactical stalker-closer like Neat to capitalize. He's a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed contestant and is 6-for-12 lifetime on the turf. Trikari gets the outside draw and also gets a great setup, but his last three races give me pause to support with a win bet at short odds. Balnikhov looks to defend his title and is capable of closing fast into slow fractions, which is something I often favor when handicapping turf races. Also keep an eye on #3 Signator (8-1), #8 Crystal Quest (10-1) and #10 Fort Washington (5-1) as contenders. 

Race 13 - $2 million Preakness Stakes, mile and three-sixteenths on dirt, 7:01 p.m. ET: As noted exhaustively above, my top three are #8 Clever Again (5-1), #2 Journalism (8-5), and #7 Sandman, so nothing scientific. All three will be in my Pick 5 wagers. 

Preakness Pick 5 (50-cent base), races 9-13, total cost $18 (4x1x1x3x3): For me, the sequence isn't ridiculously appealing, so I'll hope to be right consecutively in races 10-11 and spread some elsewhere.

• Race 9: 4, 5, 6, 9
• Race 10: 6
• Race 11: 5 (if switched to dirt, will use 4 and 8)
• Race 12: 4 6 13
• Race 13: 2 7 8

Saturday Derby Wagers, Final Thoughts

If you've yet to tune into Derby Day coverage, Churchill Downs is listed as sloppy (dirt) and good (turf), and with more rain in the forecast, the maintenance team will do its best to keep the 2025 Kentucky Derby from quagmire conditions by sealing the track.

Due to wet surfaces and also with a $335 payout on my $10 Oaks-Derby daily double wager to Luxor Cafe if he wins, I've altered my bankroll allocation toward more bullish thoughts on the undercard and am unlikely to bet Luxor Cafe to win but endorse him as my top pick.  

You'll notice a few exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers specific to the Derby and I'll try to score on two key opinions (#7 Mindframe at 3-1 in race 8 and #8 Cameo Performance at 20-1 in race 11). If playing the earlier races, I'd endorse win-place-show wagers on these, especially Cameo.

Here's what I remain alive to from yesterday:

• $10 Oaks-Derby daily double 11 with 7 (will pay $334.90) = $10
• $1 Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby pick 3: 11 with 8 10 with 7 8 = $4 (will pay TBD)
• Will be out of Oaks-Derby pick 6 unless it pays 5 out of 6: 2 with 11 with 7 with 3 5 with 8 10 with 7 8 = $8

Saturday wagers totaling $107:

• Race 8: $5 exacta - 7 with 6, 8 = $10
• Race 8: $1 pick 3 - 7 with 2 3 5 7 13 with 11 = $5
• Race 8: $0.50 pick 5 - 6 7 8 with 3 5 with 7 8 11 with 8 10 with 7 8 = $36
• Added #8 Hoist the Gold (20-1) in race 8 considering wet track and early pace
• Bummed that #8 Charlie's to Blame scratched from race 9; using #3 New Century (3-1) in that leg as a substitute
• Swapped #8 as third horse for #2 Kopion in race 10, hopefully doesn't bite me later
• Race 9: pass
• Race 10: $2 exacta key box 11 with 7 8 = $8
• Race 11: $1 daily double 8 with ALL = $19
• Bullish on Cameo Performance as big longshot but with scratches in that race speculate I'll get better value if he wins and I catch a big price in the Derby
• Race 12: $0.50 trifecta - 7 8 with 7 8 16 with 3 7 8 9 13 16 17 18 21 = $14
• Race 12: $1 exacta - 3 8 16 17 21 with 7 = $5
• Backup play of ones I like and could beat Luxor Cafe, with my preferred horse finishing second; alive to a nice score in the payout leg of Oaks-Derby double, there's no point in me betting Luxor Cafe to win, especially with odds down to 9-1 at this point
• Race 12: $1 superfecta - 8 with 7 16 with 7 16 17 with 3 13 17 = $10
• Lottery-type wager using Journalism first; another backup type flyer with Luxor Cafe second and third