Maybe I'm Trippin'

Just like that, there's only 5 weeks left in the Saratoga 2026 meet!

Last year I learned a good lesson that resulted in a profitable season -- sit chillier first 3-4 weeks, watch tons of replays throughout the meet, identify troubled trips, and capitalize when said horses return to the track and have a good shot to win. 

It's neither scientific nor involves AI nor a fakakta subscription service. Solely NJ Horseplayer elbow grease, patience, a cheap pair of readers, and a spreadsheet or online stable. So caveat emptor.

For the benefit of my audience of six, through Travers Day I'll keep track of how these "troubled trip" contenders fare and the resultant ROI on a notional $2 win-place wager. (I'd extend notional wagers to meet's end but last year found the quality of races dipped and winners seemed more random; that said, I'll keep track of troubled trips the next 2-3 weeks). 

Generally speaking, I'll consider heavier win-place wagers on these runners at longer betting odds and use "short-price" types (e.g., Commitment Fund, Correlation Trade) for multirace exotics and exacta-trifecta. This includes a few that weren't subject to bad trips, but won as noted below.

From July 3 through August 2, I've identified about 20 horses that could have benefited from better luck or jockey decision-making or both. Below are the runners' names, my rudimentary notes/opinions (from my Equibase stable and edited some for broader consumption), and links to video replays of the race in which each horse found trouble. 

I hope these help in your preparations and will start with four listed as entries from August 5-8, including one that's shipping south to Colonial Downs for an allowance race. Not sure I'll play that as it's not a normal track for yours truly, but may make a small wager is odds are favorable.

Thursday, August 6

Race 10, Sky Low Low (6-1): 4yo filly, 0-10 lifetime but could have won without trouble in SAR9 on July 16 (#2 horse); Katie Davis nice job avoiding trouble (watch #5, who caused it clubhouse turn), but lost position on rail, had to shift out to wider path; got jump on Valiant Diva (see below) to the spot and ran 3-4 wide whereas VD went 5-6 wide; but SLL rallied late, lost by <1 length, might be playable.

Friday, August 7

Race 6, Ed Charles (8-1): 2yo colt. Granted, rail draw, but Junior Alvarado rode awfully in July 19, SAR6, debut; shied at the break, spotted field 8 lengths in 5.5f dirt, then takes horse three wide in turn, 8-10 wide in stretch but horse made up lots of ground; 4th of 10 is freaking amazing, would play back.

Race 9, Bottas (6-1): 3yo colt. Understated how bottled up he was the entire G1 Belmont Derby at 16-1; brushed rail into 1st turn, hemmed in 7th (of 10) thru backstretch + into turn, then responded but Manny could never use crop as every hole closed up; very game 6th and good use later in meet.

Saturday, August 8

Race 6 ALW at Colonial Downs, Alakan (odds TBD): Not a pound-the-table play but a game 20-1 (2x overlay) 1x trying turf marathon July 5 SAR9; handled distance well but fought restraint by Jorge Ruiz for much of opening mile, then made move but shut off, flattened to midpack finish; expect better outcome, good price in right condition.

Troubled-Trip Horses to Watch Next Out (Alphabetically w/Replay)

Ah Ca Ira: Amateur-hour ride July 10, SAR8 by Christopher Elliott; clean start, sat third, then CE too oblivious to take two path gap (Red Sea-sized) between top two runners, checks, tries to get rail, fails, THEN shoots the gap but by then another horse had all momentum; finished 2nd, cost her a win.

All Star Leigh: July 16 debut, SAR5, slight hop at break, lost all chance, settled last; but Jose Ortiz rode patiently along rail albeit with two checks that cost some ground; exploded once she got a seam and ran straight; was 7-2, not sure of value second start but watch.

Bosun: July 11, race 8 - In short, TGaf did save ground midpack 5.5f T sprint but cut off a bit in stretch/too fearful to try and split gap between tiring leaders; checked, then shifted out with late burst to finish 2nd to #9 who simply got cleaner trip; should have won, watch next entry.

Commitment Fund: Almost 6-1 in July 5, SAR4 debut; complete hardluck loser, bottled up, cut off final 2-3 furlongs then bolted through for close second; would be surprised if not fave next out...but talented; could handle stretch-out from sprint debut IMHO.

Correlation Trade: Will undoubtedly be favorite 2x out; SAR1 debut on August 1 showed massive late kick; horse fought restraint much of the way, didn't handle turns well (especially second) but raw talent; would be good multirace single, figuring no win value after 2-1 on debut.

Gilded Bandit: Notes from G2 Amsterdam SAR9 July 31 totally understate how cut off he was one furlong out of the gate by Obliteration (ironically); completely lost all action, never had chance; would consider using again as Amsterdam trip was so bad, not in notes.

Gum: 0-7 lifetime 4yo, so maybe bettors will run out of patience next time, but Tyler Gaffalione ran into trouble July 10, SAR6, maybe cost Mcl win; sense she's decent enough at Mcl level to win with right trip, was under hold for much of 10 July race but had good burst when asked.

Hong Kong Phooey: Lower-level sort but trip notes COMPLETELY understated being cut off out of gate, checking badly and falling 15 lengths behind in 5.5f off-turf sprint in mud; but horse continued to work and responded to Flavian (Prat) well, miraculous 4th. Is potentially useful as turf or off-turf play.

Irish Goodbye: Maybe bettors are fed up here; in 4th LT start, July 16, SAR2, got crunched at start one-mile chute, gave up at least six lengths; still battled hard, ran on for distant third but after 5-2 + favoritism race prior, maybe folks give up and we find value next out.

Juliet On Approach: July 25, SAR11, 6th-place finish at 53-1 (20-1 ML) from rail in 12-horse turf sprint; broke alertly, midpack; saved ground but then Zayas took wide into turn, so lost ground then ran behind foes in stretch including second-place finisher; Begg horse that can absolutely factor at price next asking for a trainer that hit with long-shots in the 2025 meet.

Kipros: SAR1, July 26, rail draw, brutally cut off from starting gate, almost run into rail by #2 and spotted field 10 lengths; but Dylan (Davis) settled him nicely in backstretch before nice move in stretch for miraculous 4th; really good debut, bet back.

Madagascar: Christopher Elliott special in SAR2, July 23; ridden into trouble and series of checks last 4 furlongs-plus including into turn and 2x in stretch where bottled up but gained belatedly; has been 10-1 and 14-1 last two, so probably dismissed by bettors yet playable.

Queen of Hawaii: NOT A BAD-TRIP horse, but...really impressive AOC win SAR6 on July 9 with Jose Ortiz; 1x start 3yo off Breeders Cup 2yo try. Patient horse, burst thru tight opening in stretch to win. Figures to jump in class next out, serious player.

Ratu Jawa (scratched as AE this past weekend): July 3, SAR5, cut off badly from post 4, carried 4-5 wide but made nice sweeping move into stretch before leveling off for decent fourth; perhaps watch for better rider on turf other than Cesar Gonzalez and also if she gets inside draw as last four trips were all 4-5 wide; ground save may help with late closing kick.

River Tay: August 2, SAR4, Dylan Davis had rail throughout, kept the horse inside, and made bad move trying to pass leader in stretch on rail instead of going 2-3 path; cost the horse the race + place where the winner came from the back and easily won; keen horse who is capable, always tries; play back later in meet. Subject to a back trip, jockey's decision.

Romala: Possible class drop/distance cutback play? Chad turf second lifetime on July 4, SAR3, fought Manny Franco for 3f, hated restraint + flattened late on two-turn turf. Willing to give another shot as at least looked engaged second turn. Just lost so much energy early being an a-hole.

Valiant Diva: (See Sky Low Low above). 0-for-6 but deserves a look after worst trip third in SAR9 on July 16 after cut off at start, checked, and reined in after troubled horse eased out first turn. Once a path opened, horse ran well but way too wide (6-7 paths); real jockey/upgrade from Ruben Silvera would help.

White Smoke Rising: Maybe punched above weight trying the G2 Amsterdam on July 31; brushed gate, was dead last; (Ricardo) Santana saved ground but instead of holding the inside while gaining, tips six wide into far turn; ran gamely, but flattened; better trip and he at least finishes 3rd, worth playing especially if on class dropdown. 

Whitethorn: (Not a bad-trip horse). Took 7x to win debut but explosive late kick in 11f finale SAR10, July 26; could be useful 1x vs winners, keep an eye.

Some Vino With My Haskell

I feel obligated to post thoughts on the Haskell since, you know, I go by "NJ Horseplayer." 

It doesn't mean that I go to Monmouth Park (15 minutes away) more than to Saratoga Race Course (three-plus hours) in the summer (completely true), but still, this year's edition seems more wide open than in recent past and so I'll h allocate a few shekels on our local Grade 1.

Let's assume fast conditions for the Haskell, which is race 12 of 14 and slated to run at 5:45 p.m.

Going with a big long-shot in the Haskell normally isn't a great idea or my cup of tea since the field is usually one or two real horses and otherwise filler, but there's enough to like about #3, Baby Vino (15-1), in a 7-horse field to make him my choice as upset winner. 

Here's my thought on each runner, in order of preference.

#3, Baby Vino (15-1): Trained by Lindsay Schultz, Baby Vino enters the Haskell after a dominant win in the Pegasus at Monmouth on June 13 and maiden victory on May 1 at Oaklawn and is improving -- a good sign for any three-year-old. The negative is that top Monmouth jockey and Pegasus-winning rider Paco Lopez jumps off Baby Vino and back to Preakness winner Napoleon Solo, but Jorge Vargas is a credible enough replacement who knows the course and whose task should be to save ground and pounce late. Stamina shouldn't be an issue (4-for-4 in the money in two-turn races), though replays suggest BV's not the best gate-breaker; so the key will be to not fall early to last. He's dealt with adversity in prior races, including a bad cutoff and check in the maiden win but shook that off for an impressive first win. At double-digit odds in a field I don't love, Baby Vino's my top selection.

#4, The Puma (7-2): Next best option and a great win proposition if 7-2. Last effort was a nose beat to Commandment in the Florida Derby in March. A leg infection kept him off the Kentucky Derby trail but, if healthy, he's got tremendous upside. First ever win was in the Grade 3 Tampa Derby and Puma's run against stiff competition including Chief Wallabee. Seems versatile tactically and jockey Luis Saez has become a big-time rider. Use on all tickets.

#6, Napoleon Solo (5-2): Won the Preakness at almost 8-1, should benefit a while from Monmouth's typical early-speed bias, and gets Paco, but candidly I hated his Wood and Fountain of Youth preps, where he got early leads before dropping anchor (finished fifth in both). IMHO, the Preakness was leaps below Derby quality, and in the Haskell be prepared to take 2-1 or 9-5, which is a "pass" for me. To win he'll need to go unchallenged on the lead and temper the pace, though I don't see that happening on Saturday. Back up the Brink's truck only with caution.

#2, Further Ado (2-1): A Spendthrift-owned $550k purchase who has banked $1.5 million already, but his four wins were all in Kentucky and a few against so-so fields. The knock for me is finishing behind two runners in the Haskell field -- The Puma and still-winless Ocelli -- in head-to-head races. Trainer Brad Cox is to be feared and great at placing his horses in winnable spots like this one, but like Napoleon Solo (with one of the leading national riders, Irad Ortiz), you're looking at 9-5. Too short.

#5, Iron Honor (3-1): Chad Brown trainee who won a bad Gotham in late February and finished a flat second to Napoleon Solo in the Preakness, but to me he's a one-paced sort and I'm not sure he's talented enough to gun it and stay in first for a mile and an eighth. I could see him finished third at best and sense Brown will use this to see if he's got a Travers horse for owners St. Elias or lesser fodder.

#7, Ocelli (6-1): Is 0-for-9 lifetime including a surprising third in the Derby and couldn't win the freaking Grade 3 Ohio Derby last month, and is a closer. Stacks up for a rough day in Oceanport.

#1, Star Sweeper (30-1): Participating.

Good luck to all Haskell connections and to everyone going to Monmouth Park and have a great day!

As a bonus "Best Bet"...#1, Money Game (5-2) in race 4, Grade 3 Monmouth Cup. 

Brad Cox has been training this 4-year-old in Saratoga but ships to Monmouth Park to face nearly $6 million winner Skippylongstocking (3-2) and multiple graded stakes winner Knightsbridge (7-5), along with three fillers. Money Game is 4-for-4 lifetime and has yet to run at the stakes level but this is a good stepping stone and he enters off a win versus $1.1 million winner Bendoog, who won a stake at Horseshoe Indianapolis last Saturday. 

This feels to me like a race where Skippylongstocking and Knightsbridge (1x trying this long a distance) draw all the money and perhaps Money Game drifts up toward 3-1, we'll see. Irad Ortiz gets the mount, which I also view as a positive and adds to Money Game's value in a short field.

I'm a Renegade at Heart

This is the third and final Belmont Stakes at Saratoga and my views are anything but magical, projecting 2-1 morning line favorite and Kentucky Derby runner-up Renegade as my winner.

The race shapes up as somewhat paceless, which could compromise the chances for Derby winner Golden Tempo (9-2), though his Run for the Roses was similar to Renegade's, except for a significantly easier post position. My thesis hinges on Renegade getting post relief this Saturday and, similar to Golden Tempo, five full weeks of rest and recovery. 

Here's my take on each runner in order of preference.

#4, Renegade (2-1): By far the best of trainer Todd Pletcher's two entries and a neck shy of winning the Derby from the absolute worst post (rail draw). Broke cleanly before getting pinballed along the rail and settling toward the rear. His late move was eye-catching but I sense he had to work harder than Golden Tempo to procure a potential winning position. In the Belmont, I anticipate he'll get a more favorable tracking trip near stablemate Powershift. Unless he hates the Saratoga surface (debut was a decent third as a two-year-old late last summer there but at a sprint distance), he's the winner.

#7, Commandment (6-1): I liked him going into the Kentucky Derby and remain a fan. I was tempted to make him top selection at the generous morning line and as he was jostled quite a bit in the Derby, but upon watching the replay a 50th time liked Renegade's finish from the dreaded rail a lot more. I wouldn't be surprised if Commandment wins but am sticking with Renegade.

#9, Golden Ticket (9-2): The morning line is generous but fair consider his deep closer style on a difficult track to execute such strategy. I'm not sure we'll see a minute and 10-second (or faster) three-quarter mile time like in most of his five lifetime races and so I'm calling him third-best. If the internal race fraction is that fast again, look out; could be your winner. Otherwise, something in the more reasonable 1:11-1:12 range make his prospects more challenging. Can win, just unsure he can repeat the late kick again on this particular track. 

#6, Growth Equity (12-1): The distant best of three Chad Brown runners. Unsure he faced anyone credible in two short-field wins downstate leading into the Belmont, though he's got stamina. Distance shouldn't be an issue and I sense we'll hear his name among the leaders into the stretch. The question is whether he's quality enough to win the crown. I'll use underneath Renegade on my tickets and gauge his potential for a win in the Travers at Saratoga in late August. 

#3, Chief Wallabee (3-1): Finished fourth in the Derby and is a hard-knocker. I think he'd benefit more from the traditional 12-furlong Belmont distance than this year's 10 furlongs. I sense he'll sit just off Powershift's flank and hope to outlast the rest if the race is semi-paceless. The knock for me, as noted in my Kentucky Derby analysis, is that he wilted late in two Derby preps, both to Commandment, who I think is better. Ceiling is third or fourth and 3-1 is too short.

#8, Emerging Market (6-1): Another Brown trainee and who gets the top jockey Flavian Prat. I wasn't a huge fan into the Derby, begrudgingly and defensively rating him in my second tear, and have no change of opinion. Simply, nothing caught my eye in the Derby to elevate Emerging Market beyond a midpack finish in Saturday's Belmont. Yes, he beat Golden Ticket in the Louisiana Derby earlier in the Derby prep season, but GT was significantly squeezed from the gate and still almost won. Emerging Markets simply capitalized.

#2, Powershift (12-1): The other Pletcher horse, who needed to face a group of older horses to break his maiden on the Kentucky Derby undercard. That's a significant negative. I sense he'll jump out as the leader and it might be uncontested, but there's not enough here to have confidence beyond the horse leading beyond 6-7 furlongs. Will fade and finish in the bottom half. 

#5, Ottinho (20-1): Second and third in two stakes races but 11 lengths behind the winner in both. I'm figuring this Chad Brown trainee takes a little money, just not mine for a one-paced horse who seems to lack stamina or speed. 

#1, Vitruvian Man (30-1): The connections can say they had a Belmont runner. Good for them.

Identifying the Head Honcho in the Preakness

Two days after I attended the 2025 Preakness Stakes, host track Pimlico started a massive renovation.

As a result, this year's rendition of the second leg of the Triple Crown moves to Laurel Park, a nice yet smaller track about a half hour from Baltimore and where attendance is capped at less than 5,000. It's not designed to host an event this big, but will at least for this season.

I've been there a handful of times but have no inside dirt (nor turf), though Saturday's card is appealing, especially for its depth in the 2026 Preakness Stakes (7 p.m.).

That said, I've narrowed the 14-horse field down to two potential winners - Chip Honcho and Ocelli.

Beyond that, I've given reasons below for tossing most runners from win probability yet identified a number that readers could key to spice up exactas and trifectas.

My goal, outside of enjoying Kane Sneak Box at Boyle's in Monmouth Beach as a watching site and following that with a nice dinner in the area, will be to build on a positive Derby Weekend ROI after nailing Always a Runner in the Oaks.

#6, Chip Honcho (5-1): This Steve Asmussen trainee qualified and was in training for the Kentucky Derby but the connections pointed instead to the Preakness. It makes sense considering a much softer field and about two months of rest and training since a disappointing fifth in the Louisiana Derby; his works have been on a consistent schedule, so health isn't a concern. I like his front-running style and post position outside of early runner Taj Mahal. What tempers my enthusiasm is that he wilted late to finish second in the Risen Star after being uncontested on the lead on a track where no one seemed to gain. So maybe it was a speed-favoring oval that afternoon. If Laurel Park is tricked up and speed holds, Chip Honcho is dangerous, especially with Jose Ortiz riding. Recall that Ortiz won the Kentucky Derby and also spent the winter riding at Fair Grounds for the likes of Asmussen, so I sense he hired the best jockey option. Dangerous win prospect. 

#2, Ocelli (6-1): Closer who finished an impressive third in the Kentucky Derby with a reserved early ride and wide charge into the stretch. Breaking from post 2 instead of post 17 like in the Derby is a benefit as presumably jockey Tyler Gaffalione can sit along the rail and save Ocelli for another late run. It remains a question, however, whether this horse wants to win, considering his 0-6 lifetime record. Hard seeing a maiden winning the Preakness two weeks after a tiring Derby effort, but this field's nothing stellar, so why not.

#8, Bull by the Horns (30-1): Probably a turf or synthetic horse, and not particularly fast based on speed figures, but he's got decent late kick and could get a minor award. Won the lower-level Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park on March 21 and beat Trendsetter, who easily beat The Hell We Did (see below) from off the pace in the Bluegrass Stakes. Ceiling is third, but that'd be a good result.

#12, Incredibolt (5-1): I just don't trust jockey Jaime Torres. Incredibolt ran sixth and did nothing wrong in the Kentucky Derby and will compete for favoritism with Iron Honor, but looked to be running in place in the stretch and I'm not sure is a Grade 1 horse. Maybe by default. On pace handicapping, I sense he'll be sitting midpack down the backstretch and within 3-4 lengths of the lead but flatten. It's a lot to ask for a two-week turnaround from the Derby and compete. Not sure it was smart to enter the Preakness, but dangerous if he repeats his Virginia Derby effort. Using in exacta.

#9, Iron Honor (9-2): I bet against in the Wood Memorial as 3-1 favorite and was completely right, based on his uninspiring seventh-place finish. Chad Brown takes the blinkers off his horse and upgrades to Flavien Prat in the saddle, but I'm not sure it's enough. Maybe the Preakness company is so weak that Iron Honor can win, but I'm concerned he won't get this distance and looks like a plodder. I sense he'll be 3-1 favorite on Saturday, which lessens Iron Honor's appeal even further. Third at best.

#1, Taj Mahal (5-1): Any trainer that wins 33% of races, ahem Brittany Russell, needs their barn inspected. That said, this locally based horse is 3-for-3 with gaudy wins including the Tesio Stakes on April 18, which got him into the Preakness. Is he legit? Speed figures suggest he'll compete, but I sense the jump from overnight stakes to Grade 1 company will be a bit much for Taj Mahal to win, though 2 bullet workouts since the Tesio perhaps indicate enough sharpness to use in the trifecta. The history of Tesio winners in the Preakness also is a bearish signal.

#5, Talkin (20-1): Sire Good Magic finished fourth in this race, and there's nothing eye-catching in Talkin's performances leading into the Preakness. He was scrubbed on in the Tampa  Derby in March to finish a distant fifth, while his third in the Bluegrass (12 lengths off the winner) in April wasn't impressive either. Punching above his weight class in the Preakness. Pass.

#4, Robusta (30-1): His best to this point was almost stealing the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita in early March at 67-1, but since then he's finished a combined 33 lengths behind the winners of the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby. Early pace factor who'll fade and not hit the board.

#10, Napoleon Solo (8-1): Significant regression since two gaudy wins in New York as a 2-year-old. Finished fifth in both the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial. Will be among the leaders early and fade. Sense he's a sprinter, not a two-turn stakes horse. Unlikely to hit the board unless, as noted for Chip Honcho, the track is tricked up and early speed holds. 

#13, Great White (15-1): I can't see this one rocking us through the night. Was running in quicksand before the stretch of the Bluegrass (fifth place, 22 lengths behind) and I suspect isn't a dirt horse, based on three prior races, all on synthetic, including a win in the Battaglia Memorial at Turfway. Perhaps better suited for turf racing. Not using.

#7, The Hell We Did (15-1): Second in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes in April might explain the seemingly enticing odds for this Todd Fincher trainee, but he's got no stamina and speed that pales in comparison with some others in the Preakness. Best of 2 wins was versus allowance (non-winners of two races) company at Sunland Park. Better suited to the Preakness undercard, or a Thursday race.

#11, Corona de Oro (30-1): Jockey John Velasquez gets the mount, but if I had a nickel for everytime someone told me that trainer Dallas Stewart always has live long-shots...

#3, Crupper (30-1): Winner of two low-level races at Oaklawn Park and at awful speed figures to boot has no chance. Crapper is more like it.

#14, Pretty Boy Miah (15-1): Another that doesn't belong. He's never gone more than a mile nor run outside of Aqueduct and last beat claimers. The widest post at Laurel won't help. It's a massive class jump and the horse will be off Lasix. Just not seeing it despite getting one of my favorite jockeys.

So Happy About the 2026 Kentucky Derby

The last Kentucky Derby winner I picked was Maximum Security in 2019.

Alright, he was disqualified after crossing the wire first after a suspect stewards decision, but the moral of the story is to take mine and most peoples' picks with a grain of salt. It's a grueling race to handicap and a one-off with as many as 20 entrants.

Anything can happen in an enormous field, and this year I've avoided going down the rabbit hole of excessive handicapping beyond watching select Kentucky Derby prep replays and narrowing down to some horses capable of finishing in the top three in Saturday's Run for the Roses and reasons why you should consider them in your wagers, ranked in order of preference.

Two potential winners ("A" horses)

#8, So Happy (15-1): Versatility will do this Mark Glatt trainee well. Wins at three distances in four lifetime starts and in different pace scenarios, from blazing to dawdling. Mike Smith has been aboard all four starts and his only loss was his first try at two turns, yielding late but finishing third. I sense he'll be near the pace and view two-time Derby winner "Money Mike" as an asset. If nothing else, I'll be rooting hard for Glatt, whose wife died abruptly in February at 57 due to heart failure. In this environment, we could all use a feel-good story.

 #6, Commandment (6-1): "Experts" are high on Bill Mott trainee Chief Wallabee (see below) but that's recency bias after the Mott-Junior Alvarado 2025 Derby victory. Commandment is better and beat Wallabee head-to-head 2x, including in the Fountain of Youth (FOY) and Florida Derby. Commandment looks like the perfect stalker who can grind out a win and not have to be right on the pace. Lots of fight in this one. Sense he'll hold his 6-1 morning line, which is great value. The knock is that jockey Luis Saez has yet to ride Commandment, as previous winning jockeys Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat went to other horses. No matter. Saez is world-class and this is a gutsy runner. The knock may be that you have to go back to 2013 to find the last FOY-Florida Derby winner dressed in roses (Orb).

Second Tier ("B" horses - some things need to go their way)

#11, Incredibolt (20-1): Very hit or miss. Two stylish come-from-behind stakes wins in the Street Sense and Virginia Derby in mid-March. Granted, fields were soft, but his late kick is eye-catching. Riley Mott may have the horse on the rise here for his Derby training debut whereas pops, Bill, has a game horse (Chief Wallabee) that only boasts a maiden victory but will draw a lot of wagering. 

#15, Emerging Market (15-1): I'll hate myself, again, after the race ends in giving another promising Chad Brown horse a serious Derby look, but this one can hit the board. Only his third lifetime start after debut maiden win in Tampa, followed by Grade 2 Louisiana Derby win in mid-March. The downside is he outlasted a competitor there that's 30-1 on Saturday and may be closer to 40-1, but Prat stays aboard and appeared to be restraining EM in the early stages before letting lose late to prevail by a head. It's also hard to discount using America's best jockey somewhere on the ticket.

Third Tier ("C" horses - a lot of things need to go their way)

#1, Renegade (4-1): Morning line favorite, which is insane no matter the quality. Rail horses do not and will not win the Derby in the existing 20-horse configuration. Rail horses get a little more relief than in the past, but Renegade will have a lot to contend with to make the first turn in one piece. That said, the Irad Ortiz-Todd Pletcher jockey-trainer combo is nothing to sneeze at and they've demolished good fields in prepping for the Derby. I'd like him more with a better draw, and were the speed figures better. So you can have him at 4-1, or 5-1, or 10-1. Not my cup of tea on the win end. Maybe underneath.

#12, Chief Wallabee (8-1): I'm using him at the bottom of my trifecta and see third as ceiling. Maybe adding blinkers on Saturday is the winning recipe, but I'm not a huge fan of horses unable (to this point) to outduel foes in the stretch. It happened twice here, which is cause for concern, though like others I respect the connections. Think Alydar. 

NJ Horseplayer's Ill-Fated Trifecta Ticket

Perhaps I'd serve society better making a $12 donation to charity but here's my structure, consistent with the above ABC analysis: 6, 8 with 6, 8, 11, 15 with 1, 6, 8, 11, 12, 15.

Caveat emptor as the legendary Mike Brady once advised his son Greg.

[#20, Fulleffort, removed from Third Tier after scratch on Thursday afternoon and #5, Right to Party, removed after scratch on Friday.]

NHC 26: A Few Lengths from the Money

There's no glory in finishing 461st of 828 in NHC26, but several positive takeaways from my fifth NHC effort. 

The trip started horribly, with a TSA sick-out prompting jetBlue flight cancellation from Newark six hours before takeoff, a miraculous shift to JFK, delays, and 3:30 a.m. hotel arrival. 

I barely slept, considering the travel after-effects, contest anticipation, and 9 a.m. start to NHC26, and it showed on Day 1. 

I banked a mere $23.80 on a chalky Friday where half of winners in my 16 races (6 mandatory, 10 optional) were post-time favorites at average odds of 1.6-to-1, but wasn't dejected only $55 off the 83rd-place goal for Sunday-championship qualification and as I somehow maintained strategic focus of targeting vulnerable favorites while avoiding action-oriented impulse plays. 

* Denotes mandatory; first 6 races

Saturday was far better, with 8.2-to-1 and 10.7-to-1 winners in two of the eight mandatories, a 9-1 place, and five near-miss thirds including three cap types that simply didn't go my way. I might have been a Sunday qualifier with a bit more luck in two of these. Here's the replay evidence.

Aqueduct, Race 3, #6 Unbridled Bomber (18.06-to-1): The two longest shots in a sketchy 6-horse field made sense; just went the wrong way as Centavo was closer to the pace to score at 17.75-to-1 and my pick missed second by a neck, costing at least $10 of place money.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 5, #10 Radar Loop (19.5-to-1): A gut punch. Great stalking trip and had enough to win but squeezed badly in the stretch by the top two and lost all action before edged for third. There was a lengthy inquiry (stewards' notes lend little to this) and I believe grounds from the head-on of a double DQ had Radar Loop held for third. I was disappointed but not waylaid.  

Aqueduct, Race 7, #5 Blue Forty Two (21.25-to-1): No qualms, just too belated an effort and the favorite won at 0.67-to-1. Contest players love big fields, but I cite this and AQ3 above as opportunities to beat short-priced favorites in small fields, which should lend well to cleaner trips in optional races where the majority of contestants may be inclined to take a pass.   

Santa Anita Park, Race 3, #2 Quereme Pass (9-to-1): Not much to say. Second best. Great trip, nose beat. Missed opportunity for $20+ of win money.

Colonial Downs, Race 10, #5 Sharp Tones (28.3-to-1): On the flipside of the above "clean trips in short fields" logic, Joe Rocco's ride was abysmal. This one still gets under my skin. A YouTube replay wasn't available, but here's one from Bloodhorse. Rocco easily cost the three lengths needed to win by inexplicably running up on heels in the first furlong then completely losing patience top of the stretch with an erratic wide move. A sound optional play but a clearly unfavorable trip.

Gulfstream Park, Race 12, #10 Coco Abarrio (15.1-to-1): The top two finishers of 10 were 18-to-1 and 33-to-1, so my logic was correct. No qualms with performance but missed decent place money in this wide-option optional contest race. (Spanish-language replay.)

Santa Anita Park, Race 7, #10 Centrodelantero (4.4-to-1): One of the later races and a 9-horse field but sitting on a few late bullets, I made this more logical play in the seventh of eight Day 2 mandatories. Great trip, got the lead 2x in stretch but a nose-beat third in a 3-horse photo. The potential $16-$18 of bankroll would have positioned me to play less of a reach in my final two picks instead of 38-to-1 and 46-to-1.

The outcomes stunk, but on a patient handicapping front, I was satisfied with my Saturday effort, identifying several opportunities to strike with less popular selections. I believe it's key to contest success, no matter the format.

The table below shows the average odds of my Saturday selections was far higher than Friday's, yet several were in contention, and surely enough where my outcome could have been different with some racing luck. Only 25% of winners in my 20 Saturday races were favorites vs. 50% on Friday, so I mapped out appropriate opportunities.

* Denotes mandatory; first 8 races

NHC26 proved to be my best finish, sadly, but continued progress from NHC25. I'll continue to consider live-money tournaments at Monmouth Park and maybe Laurel Park, but target the bigger Horse Tourneys tournaments before online NHC events despite their slightly lower-cost entry points. 

The NHC is always a great time and it's gratifying to qualify for such a tremendous test, but with the prize pool flattening and players' gifts deteriorating (e.g., from a $100 casino chip per qualifier and open bar to a cheapo backpack) by the year, I envision no change in my bankroll to make it to NHC27. 

Fortune (and Lessons) in the Flo-Cal

After a career-best fifth-place finish (of 249) in Horse Tourney's Flo-Cal Faceoff, I let the dust settle before studying my decisions and outcome, worth $14,639 of winnings. Not a bad return on my winning $28 feeder to secure a first seat and $146 invested thereafter to try (unsuccessfully) to procure a second seat.

The format was a notional $2 win-place wager on all 38 races on the Saturday and Sunday cards at Gulfstream Park (Florida) and Santa Anita (California), with caps of 20-1 on win and 10-1 on place. 

It's consistent with most online handicapping contests and akin to the format for the National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas on March 13-15, for which I've qualified yet where there are a lot more races to pick from and optional contest bets.

Flo-Cal is a 38-race grind over two days that requires patience, clean trips, luck here and there, and identifying bad favorites vs. competitent long-shots. Timing also matters, especially in the latter stages of any contest and particularly one where there were only two boxcar race winners, one at each track.

In the end, I amassed a $198.60 bankroll ($2.61 ROI) with six winners and four place finishers; adding in seven show runners, 17 of my 38 picks hit the board. 

Saturday started on the wrong foot as my alternate selection (players pick a "backup" each race in the event the primary is a late scratch) Mis Brunellas won the opener at Gulfstream and produced a day-high $35.80. Primary pick Golden Choice was a game third as jockey Junior Alvarado picked a wider path instead of tracking the winner along the rail, then checked a bit in the stretch - perhaps enough to cost a placing. The positive was that I at least found a competent horse at 14-1. The negative was being $35.80 out of the lead one race into it. 

I did connect for $22.80 with Alverado-ridden Roar Ready, winner of Gulfstream 3, and followed with place scores on short prices in races 4 (second by a neck) and 6 (second to 2-5 winner) before going 0-6 for the rest of the Florida card.

Turning to Cali, 10-1 Church Lady netted $12.80 of place money despite an incredibly troubled/nearly catastrophic race 3 second. Race 5 produced $25.80 through Nancy Griffith, who made a late surge to win by a nose at almost 9-1 under Edwin Maldonado. I went winless over Santa Anita's final four, and switching off race 6 winner Potente at the last second cost me $5.30 (and in hindsight around $3,000 more of winnings as I finished $4 out of fourth). 

But no crying. After Day 1 of grinding, I was inside the top 100 with $66.60 and not so far off the leaders after 21 fairly chalky race outcomes. It gave me hope of staying in it and catching a few big prices without stabbing all Sunday.

Turning to Sunday, I'll go to the grave that 19-1 Turbo Fire was good enough to win rather than finish third in the second from Gulfstream (race replay) if not for a hesitant midrace ride by the green Juan Rodriguez, but it was a zero for me albeit a confidence booster from a handicapping competency perspective. 

I caught 3-2 Snowyte two races later in a short field for $7.20 to move the needle forward, and pulled a Costanza (e.g., doing the opposite of my normal tendencies) two races later in GP6, supporting jockey Jesus Rios - historically a recipe for disaster for me - aboard 33-1 Mario's Sweet Girl in a bottom-level claimer. 

True to form, the jockey did the opposite of what the past performances suggested as a recipe for success...sprint to the lead and hope. 

Instead, after an incredibly alert break from the outside post, Rios reined in MSG back to fifth, surely a precursor to such a bomber dropping anchor, I thought. 

Yet he had horse and astutely kept a wide path (the dirt course rail at GP was completely dead all weekend) before drawing away like Secretariat to, finally, produce a contest bomber and $64 "capper" payout. The only one. 

As an avid race replay watcher, with a straight face (dare me; I can produce the texts to friends saying as much) what caught my eye about MSG in a bad field of 1x winners was her maiden win on November 27 at a similar distance. She handled the rail, rated well, accepted a challenge in the stretch, and finished confidently with a win at 20-1 that afternoon, seen here. Watch the 1:  

Not to mention that the third-place finisher that day, Souffle on Fire, won in a feeder I participated in Friday. I sensed MSG's 30-1 morning line was awful and capitalized. It moved me into the top 10, but with what seemed like an eternity of contest races remaining.

I took the odds-on favorite in the next (GP7) to net a generous $6.40 from Paris Surprise, who won stylishly, and then $3.40 of tough-trip place money on Mr. Leasure(sic) in the Santa Anita opener to seize sixth place. 

From there, however, it was a backpedal - 0 for 6 including a horrific ride by Hector Berrios on 6-1 first-timer Acoustic Kitty in SA5. Watch the 7:

A **** ton of horse. The check at the start wasn't a game-ender as Berrios guided Acoustic Kitty to the rail, but then grew impatient after getting shut off and jerked the horse into the six path before a belated rush for third. I was frustrated. Acoustic Kitty was clearly best, and I remembered that a day earlier that trainer John Sadler scratched her from a similar, presumably harder spot based on a 12-1 morning line on Saturday vs. 6-1 in Sunday's fifth race. 

Part of me thought luck had run out and I was going to crap out. 

The rational part saw three more good opportunities.

Not really liking anyone in 6-horse race 6, I settled on a bad 4-5 favorite, The Big Cheeseola. It isn't a move I'd have made as a less-experienced player when I'd have gone for broke rather than move the chains but I didn't want to chase as I saw viable long shots in the penultimate and final races. She survived for second, so I held my nose and took the $2.40 to cling to 20th - the final money spot ($1,500). 

Race 7 was a bottom-level claiming sprint with a bad favorite. My wheelhouse for finding a price.

The 8-horse field was bad, and typical of California tracks, the bettors pounded the favorite. 

On the other hand, my horse Little Tinker Elle was 30-1 on the morning line, which for my money looked atrociously off considering three convincing wins and a close second in her past four starts including at the tougher allowance level, albeit on the Los Alamitos quarterhorse circuit.

I was confident she'd at least break to the lead. The question was whether she'd hold it going longer than the 4.5 furlongs in the four prior races. 

Did she ever. Watch the 7:

Little Tinker Elle's strides clearly shortened toward the finish line, but she was so far ahead of the pack and won by almost two to give me $48.60 and fourth place with one to go. I felt vindicated sticking with my view that prices were to be had and to remain patient. 

Sitting about $30 out of first and $117,000 of prize money but with several others breathing down my neck, I debated how best to approach the finale. Side with the favorite, who I liked, in a 13-horse field and maybe move up a spot for a bigger prize than fourth (and potentially Day 2 money; prizes to the four highest bankrolls each day), or find a logical low-double-digit runner.

Beyond going for the win, the logic in the latter is equally defensive in contest play, the idea being to "block" others lower in the standings from passing. 

Race 8 offered plenty of long shots; some unplayable, and so I narrowed down to two or three and landed semi-confidently on 16-1 Clubhouse Bride, despite jockey Tyler Baze's 1-42 win rate. He's sort of a West Coast version of the aforementioned Jesus Rios; e.g., not the most dependable. 

Long story short, Clubhouse Bride looked the same as 6-7 of the other Cal breds. Yet from her troubled trip in Race 4 on December 28 (watch the 10 in the video below), I sensed that without an early check that afternoon and four-wide trip in the turn and through the stretch, she could compete with a clean trip.

As misfortune would have it, similar story Sunday with 2-3 light checks in the backstretch before a pretty severe one behind foes into the turn, before a competitive finish. Watch the 5:

Was Clubhouse Bride good enough? Finishing fourth only three lengths off the winner, I'd argue that a clean trip would have meant everything. Especially to me, since I'd have catapulted to first place. 

But them's the breaks and I'm not going to complain about a five-figure score in the lead-up to NHC. 

My Flo-Cal handicapping and plays were strong, and part of this writing exercise is not to gloat but to stow away for later reading and as a reminder when faced with similar situations in events as small as a feeder contest or as big as the multimillion-dollar NHC, which is just five weeks away, that (1) take the free squares when they make sense, (2) remain patient, and (3) focus on handicapping and well-supported picks instead of playing the leaderboard.