The Win Contenders
4. Muth (8-5). Spiked a fever and scratched, which is unfortunate, considering he'd have been a play-against for me and taken money away from the horses I like more.
Ramblings of a weekend handicapper's bid to qualify annually for the $3 million NHC in Las Vegas. Three-time qualifier with an eye toward playable long-shots and beating myself up.
4. Muth (8-5). Spiked a fever and scratched, which is unfortunate, considering he'd have been a play-against for me and taken money away from the horses I like more.
The Kentucky Derby finish was awesome but quite the opposite from a wagering perspective with zero return on my customary $150 bankroll for the races in the Derby Pick 5 sequence.
The worst beat involved #3 Lagynos in the American Turf Stakes -- a third-place finish at 36-1. Lagynos got a great rail-skimming ride but simply got stuck behind foes, including #2 Trikari, who got a better trip and at 47-1 beat a third giant longshot (24-1) to the finish to win. The opening that I had hoped for in Thursday's blog post never came to fruition, as short check and late shift to the outside were belated and I did not use #4 Formidable Man on any tickets. So pretty good handicapping went to waste.
Top play Who Dey in the Pat Day Mile (race 8) ran gamely but was a cut below the winner, finishing fourth; about 40% of my bankroll involved him hitting the board. No dice.
Track Mate (CD Stakes) did little of note after early bumping from the gate, while Turf Classic top choice Naval Power lost by a head.
Derby analysis was fairly positive but I played Track Phantom too prominently and paid the price as he established an easy-ish and not heavily contested lead but looked to be standing still when winner Mystik Dan bullied past him along the rail and held on for dear life to win the Run for the Roses by a nose vs. Sierra Leone and Forever Young in a blanket finish. One more jump and Sierra Leone wins. No bumping and maybe it's Forever Young wearing the roses.
I wrote and maintain that Sierra Leone is the best three-year-old and will be heard from again. Credit to fellow handicapper Steve Fitzpatrick for stating to me at MJ's in Tinton Falls right after the Derby that trainer Chad Brown would skip the Preakness and target the Belmont at his home track in Saratoga; Brown confirmed that today. I'm fairly confident without knowing that he'll be a prohibitive favorite.
As for the Preakness, a report about Mystik Dan's post-race appetite raises questions about his participation, and were I the trainer Ken McPeek, I would instead target the Belmont as well or a later Grade 1 as I just do not see him as a Triple Crown type. Winning the Derby requires a great ride and luck and Mystik Dan benefited from both. Forever Young, meanwhile, is reportedly returning to Japan due to quarantine issues; so figure he's not in the mix on May 18 at Pimlico vs. a Baffert-heavy field.
I'll try to be more disciplined about coverage of the Preakness and the big races here, so stay tuned.
In the meantime, after rewatching the trip for all 20 runners, here's a rundown of my pre-Derby best-to-worst commentaries and results for each along with speculativecommentary; outside of Forever Young, fairly solid in distinguishing much wheat from the chaff.
Sierra Leone - 2nd by a nose; nearly perfect ride by Tyler Gafflione from difficult inside position; sat 17th much of the way, made strong wide move into and through far turn yet could not stay straight and one could argue cost Forever Young second if not first place.
Track Phantom - 11th; folded after carving out quick but not 2023-blazing Derby fractions; concern about failure to get the distance proved true yet no regret playing since thesis on getting the lead vs. the other supposed "speed" horses came to fruition. Could see using on Belmont day undercard if the connections downgrade to 7-furlong or 1-mile sprint. To Thursday's post, he failed to stink it up but ran to his 42-1 odds.
Fierceness - 15th; slightly missed the gate break but emerged cleanly and among the three pacesetters but folded like a cheap suit before the stretch; a top horse would have blown by Track Phantom and Just Steel out of the final turn; could see trainer Todd Pletcher sitting out Preakness and Belmont with this one and prepping for easier Grade 1s like the Haskell, Pennsylvania Derby and WV Derby. Maybe akin to Track Phantom and better saved for 1-mile sprint type races.
Catching Freedom - 4th; identified as fourth best in field and ran to that placement; very slight checks passing clubhouse first time around but otherwise a clean, ground-saving trip yet never quite gained on Mystik Dan, which is the alarming part about using him bullishly down the road when the second- and third-place runners had wider trips and more gas in the tank late; still, completing superfecta in a 20-horse field nothing to knock.
Mystik Dan - 1st; listed as my fifth best, outran his odds and pedigree; could see Belmont Stakes if race is shortened to Derby distance of a mile and a quarter but maintain he's meant more for a mile or a shade more and speculate connections will find more winnable spots and middle distances. No Triple Crown.
Dornach - 10th; never let anyone tell you a Derby rail horse can win; brutal trip with numerous checks and much bumping but I will elevate this guy off the effort and hope he tries the Belmont; showed a ton of heart, kept running late (passed Track Phantom late to finish Top 10) despite the circumstances and will be one to watch on the New York circuit this summer and fall for trainer Danny Gargan.
Honor Marie - 8th; pinballed badly from the gate, impeded into the first turn and ran last before meeting more trouble in the far turn but showed amazing turn of foot and ran courageously; was just three spots below my projected ceiling; wonder if jockey Ben Curtis' inexperience was a factor as he rode well but almost broke too alertly for a deep closer; will keep an eye in future.
Resilience - 6th; clean trip from post 19, sat sixth much of the race before aggressive, sweeping move into the stretch and looked poised to pass but merely ran by the faders and flattened; proved point about Aqueduct preps as among the worst; not saying he's a bad horse, just not Triple Crown quality.
Stronghold - 7th; prerace analysis spot on as jockey Antonio Fresu positioned fourth through midpoint of backstretch and made similar move to Resilience but proved to be California B-teamer; doubt he was good enough to win this once if they ran it 20x; figure he can go back West and compete in 5- and 6-horse stakes vs. way lesser foes on a deteriorating circuit.
Epic Ride - 14th; mentioned as potential play to spice up tri and super tickets and was forwardly placed but then ridden hard toward the stretch home and wilted; figure he'll be off the trail.
Just a Touch - 20th; never got the allure nor the morning line; also-ran the whole way through who fortunately was wrapped up in the stretch by the jockey; expect next race would be vs. lesser company and not sure which distance he's best suited.
Just Steel - 17th; very happy for octogenarian legend D. Wayne Lukas winning a Grade 1 earlier in the card but prerace view was correct about early placement, green jockey and no chance to win; will keep an eye if shortened to races between 6-8 furlongs.
Endlessly - 9th; grass horse who broke well, avoided trouble and sat back last before making decent run to get inside the Top 10; watch this one in upcoming turf stakes and jockey Umberto Rispoli, who will one day get a Kentucky Derby win...strong rider had no realistic chance with this horse.
Forever Young - 3rd - and T. O. Password - 5th; was dead wrong about global travel weighing on the Japanese horses' chances; Forever Young got the second-worst trip and ran a monster race and arguably the jostling and herding by Sierra Leone in the stretch cost him the win; immense respect for the horse, jockey and connections, who might have been cheated out of the nation's first Kentucky Derby win; T. O.'s effort was Top 5 but never threatening; no idea where these two race next.
Society Man - 16th; second of Gargan runners never had chance before or during the race.
Catalytic - 19th; dropped anchor about the halfway point.
Domestic Product - 13th; my unscientific eye found the horse was either over-restrained toward the start or really hated the kickback (dirt in the face from others); 9-wide finish would support the latter as he ran a little late but in a no-chance effort.
West Saratoga - 12th; gave his best early and was swallowed up as the field turned for home but kept trying and held off wealthy connections entrant Domestic Product toward the wire.
Grand Mo The First - 18th; squarely toward back of pack throughout.
It's hard enough picking one winner let alone the five (in a row) necessary to cash a lucrative Pick 5 wager, but it's always a fun handicapping challenge. The one time I was close to cashing, Maximum Security was DQ'd in the Derby and so I missed a $1,000+ score due to a judge's decision. The ticket cost was about the same as two movie tickets and is a fun way to play the five race all stakes sequence that culminates with the Kentucky Derby.
For those not accustomed or never having played a Pick 5, in this case the base wager is 50 cents. A bettor can include more than one horse per "leg," resulting in a multiplier effect that determines total cost of the ticket. So if you pick 1 horse per lage, bet costs you two quarters. If you go two horses per race (2x2x2x2x2), cost is $16. You get the picture.
Below I've provided analysis of each of the races in that sequence. I generally budget $30-$50 and attempt to find one or two "singles" so that I can bulk up in less predictable races (or ones where I have less conviction) in hopes of surviving those legs.
Even if disinterested in the Pick 5, I've targeted a few prices horses below worth playing as win propositions or that could spice up your exacta or trifecta plays. Enjoy!
Race 8, Pat Day Mile (Grade 2, 2:46 p.m. ET): Ohio breeding aside, #7 Who Dey has a big shot and offers tremendous value at a morning line of 10-1. Jockey upgrade to Brian Hernandez after regular rider John McKee strangled the horse early in his 2024 debut on April 5 at Keeneland. Yet that second-place finish in the $400,000 Lafayette was impressive. Horse is clearly keen but once settled he advanced nicely late in the race without prompting. Never threatened for the win after being choked five lengths behind the leader but closed well and galloped out tremendously and gets an extra furlong on Saturday to gain ground and should be firing in the stretch. This son of Liam's Map has a win at Churchill (beat Derby runner Mystik Dan, who ran fifth that day) and weaved through traffic in that one and passes the eye test of a horse that can stalk what'll be a fierce pace and have enough late kick to win. In addition to win bet, will use in exacta with #12 Nash (3-1), who's trying a one-turn race for only the second time but ran gamely vs. Derby entrant Track Phantom. Will use both to start the Pick 5.
Race 9, American Turf Stakes (Grade 2, 3:40 p.m. ET): The 14-horse field makes this incredibly difficult to handicap, particularly as the amount of speed signed on suggests closers should benefit. The one catching my eye most is #3 Lagynos (15-1), whose connections wasted time putting him on the Kentucky Derby trail but showed that he is clearly meant for turf. Won his debut at Kentucky Downs in mid-September, then had a few good dirt performances that I'm figuring inspired the owners to try preps to the Run for Roses. Once the 9th-place Rebel Stakes finish suggested dirt's not where money is to be made, they put Lagynos back on the lawn, where he ran a game third in the Grade 3 Transylvania on April 5. Christian Torres was the jockey in both turf tries and returns on Saturday. I sense this bettors could be chilly but 15-1 is certainly generous enough to take a shot. Expect a rail-skimming trip and hope something opens in the stretch as he's got good late kick on the two turf replays. Will use with #2 Trikari (15-1), European shipper and race favorite #5 Legend of Time (7/2), promising California entrant #7 Stay Hot (10-1), and #13 Can Group (15-1), who I might have picked as a winner if not for the wide post position and likelihood of a wide trip similar to his effort in the Transylvania.
Race 10, Churchill Downs Stakes (Grade 1, 4:31 p.m. ET): Simply not a fan of race favorites #6 Zosos (3-1), #11 Hoist the Gold (7/2) and #2 Tejano Twist (4-1) and I'm always willing to play D. Wayne Lukas horses at 7/8 of a mile as he's one of the best when preparing middle-distance sprinters. Regardless of the big jump in class and switch to a greener rider, #7 Track Mate offers value at 12-1 and could go off higher than the morning line. The 4-year-old son of Union Rags is one of the least tested (9 starts) in an 11-horse field including a few that have banked more than $1 million. Yet the addition of blinkers has been a significant benefit the past two races with stylish wins albeit at 3/4 of a mile versus lesser foes. A bullet work on April 26 (best of 25 runners) tells me this one's sharp, and I really like the post just off #6 Zozos, a need-the-lead type that I'm not using off a 6-month layoff. I may single Track Mate on my "A" Pick 5 ticket and will wheel him in exacta and trifecta plays with #4 Mr. Wireless (6-1), who's been in the money in 9 of his last 10 starts dating to July 2022, and #3 Bo Cruz (10-1), who would be 2-for-2 to start 2024 without traffic troubles in his February 12 start at Fairgrounds.
Race 11, Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes (Grade 1, 5:27 p.m. ET): Going with the favorite, #11 Naval Power (7/2), and won't overthink it. Frankie Dettori gets the mount and essentially swaps places with Tyler Gaffalione, who rides rail horse Integration (5-1). Naval Power was away for 13 months and exploded late to win a Grade 2 in Dubai on Feb. 23 before shipping to the U.S. and running a game second in the Grade 1 Makers Mark at Keeneland on April 12 behind Master of the Seas, maybe the best turf miler on the planet. Naval Power is betable both as a 7/2 win proposition and will be another single on my primary Pick 5 ticket. Will use in exacta with #4 Far Bridge (8-1), who had a great 3-year-old campaign in 2023 including getting nosed out by Webslinger in the American Turf and tuned up easily in Florida in late March for the Turf Classic.
Race 12, Kentucky Derby (Grade 1, 6:57 p.m. ET): See Thursday's post for full rundown but in my primary Pick 5 I'm using #2 Sierra Leone (3-1), #4 Catching Freedom (8-1), #12 Track Phantom (20-1) and #17 Fierceness (5/2).
Probably Pick 5 Ticket of $20: 7, 12 with 2, 3, 5, 7, 13 with 7 with 11 with 2, 4, 12, 17