Belmont Pick: Sovereignty

After attending the Preakness for the first time to see Old Hilltop before its sorely needed renovation, I'm questioning my sanity a bit going against favored Journalism in the Belmont. 

Preakness view

Journalism's win in the second leg of the 2025 Triple Crown was one of the best individual efforts witnessed in person, and no doubt his runner-up finish in the Kentucky Derby was admirable.

Yet with Derby winner Sovereignty trading at 5-1 as of 7:15 p.m. ET in Friday's advanced wagering, he's too intriguing to pass as such an overlay versus his 2-1 morning line and will be my win bet. 

The 8-horse field expected to enter the starting gate for the second Belmont at Saratoga is top heavy, with the winner likely among Journalism and Sovereignty but bettors high also on Baeza (third in the Derby).

Please see my quick thoughts on each below. 

Note, too, that Saratoga took a lot of rain on Friday, producing a muddy main track and yielding turf, so check back in by noon on Saturday for key plays on the undercard once I have a better feel for track conditions and scratches. [SATURDAY UPDATE: Belmont Stakes field intact, but races 9 and 12 have been cancelled, others originally carded for turf are switched to the main track, and Saratoga is listed as sloppy; hence no big undercard suggestions.]

2025 Belmont Stakes Field

2. Sovereignty (2-1): Derby champ passing on the Preakness was a disappointment but trainer Bill Mott protected the horse for this spot and I think capitalizes. Sovereignty's two-year-old debut was at Saratoga last August and a good learning experience, while showing he's not averse to the track. Proven at any distance, the 2-furlong cutback from Belmont's downstate 12-furlong configuration is a plus. Wins on dry or sloppy tracks as seen in the Derby and I expect is fit and will be running late. Your 2025 winner.

7. Journalism (8-5): Again, ran brilliantly in the Preakness; glad I decided the night before to grab a ticket on the apron near where he was jammed between horses before exploding to catch Gosger at the wire. But let's be real, the field was midling at best and he had to grind to beat almost a 20-1 shot. Price will be too short for my liking as a win bet but will hit the board.

4. Uncaged (30-1): One of trainer Todd Pletcher's two entrants and in early betting the longest shot at 25-1 but he's 2-for-2 on muddy surfaces, both from off the pace in blazingly fast races and including his debut win at Saratoga last August 3. Ran an awful sixth of nine in the Peter Pan on May 10 off of Lasix, which he'll run without again on Saturday, but I like the horse-for-course (of sorts) angle to spice up prospective payouts if one of the top two wins. Using in the trifecta and maybe exacta if one of the favorites has an off performance. 

6. Baeza (4-1): Early action signals he'll be too overbet for me as a win prop, nor am I enamored that he's 0-for-4 outside the maiden ranks. Uncaged at least has a $100,000 allowance win. I won't dismiss Baeza's Derby effort but sense bettor overenthusiam that hurts his betting odds. Too short if 3-1.

5. Crudo (15-1): The second Pletcher horse and on paper the more logical. Dominated the Sir Barton at Pimlico on Preakness Day but the upgrade from restricted stakes to Grade 1 is dubious. If speed holds up on a wet track on Saturday, I'd elevate his chances to hit the board yet still not win. John Velazquez has been riding lights out this week though I sense this horse (owned by Bobby Flay) is a cut below.

3. Rodriguez (6-1): Bob Baffert trainee who shipped to New York to win the Wood Memorial in April, which is arguably one of the worst Derby preps on the calendar. Finished a distant third to Journalism in the San Felipe in California on March 1 but beat Baeza head-to-head in early January. You'll hear his name a bit early with Crudo but isn't a player. Speed and fade. Pass.

1. Hill Road (10-1): It's perhaps idiotic to go against hometown trainer Chad Brown yet I wonder if he's fast enough to hit the board. Enters off a come-from-behind Grade 3 win in a sluggish Peter Pan at Aqueduct but to me he faced better in the Tampa Bay Derby in March and ran a flat and distant third. If Brown's horse wins, wouldn't be the first time he beat me as a bettor.

8. Heart of Honor (30-1): Bad fifth in the Preakness and again an also-ran. I hope the connections at least enjoy a great meal at Pennell's. 

Clever Preakness Advice - Pass on Black-Eyed Susan Favorites

It's time to turn the page after an uncompetitive set of Kentucky Derby selections and turn attention to the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Of course it won't be captured in 2025 with Derby winner Sovereignty passing on the Preakness. 

Yet it gives nine other horses the opportunity for a significant resume-builder.

Clever Again gets the nod over Derby runner-up Journalism and Sandman on Saturday, and I'll use all three in the Black-Eyed Susan-Preakness daily doubles with 15-1 Princess Aliyah in Friday's feature. 

[Updated on Thursday night with thoughts on Saturday's Pick 6 sequence finishing with the Preakness.]

Preakness Stakes

8. Clever Again (5-1): Connections were patient after 2nd-place debut at Keeneland last April. Stayed off the track for 10 months before maiden-breaker in late February at Oaklawn, then followed that up with another front-running win in the $200k non-graded Hot Springs Stakes. Yet that race was fairly productive, with the second and third finishers finishing third and fifth, respectively, in the Pat Day Mile on Derby day and fourth-place Max Got Excited winning a stake at Oaklawn on May 2. Advantageous post outside of slow-starting Sandman is a plus. It's a clear hike facing three Derby finishers but I sense this son of American Pharoah can step forward and trainer Steve Asmussen has a live long-shot with speed and stamina.

2. Journalism (8-5): Similar to the Kentucky Derby where he finished second, the deserving favorite. Jockey Umberto Rispoli rode a great Derby. Guiding Journalism toward the rail into the first turn after some early jostling. Journalism looked far more comfortable in the backstretch. Slingshot move into the far turn and passed everyone but simply got beat late by Sovereignty. Third-place finisher Baeza's effort flatters Journalism more in this field. Question is whether that effort took too much out of Journalism; two-week turnaround is difficult but we'll assume he's sound.

7. Sandman (4-1): Deep closer who finished seventh in the Derby after no early running. I thought his late-race effort was enough to merit Preakness winner consideration and that he shied some when between foes in the stretch, potentially costing him 1-2 placements. Preakness pace needs to be testy, so the question becomes whether it will be hot enough to benefit Sandman as it did in winning the Arkansas Derby as that field fell apart after a 45.2-second first half mile. That's the hope here. There's quick starters signed on but I'm not sure the early pace is guns ablaze.

6. River Thames (9-2): He'll be a popular pick because, on paper, he lost to Derby champ Sovereignty by just a neck in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth (FoY). Yet peel the onion and it looks like he's not particularly fast, nor does he seem to like kickback. In the FoY and subsequent Grade 1 Bluegrass in April, both jockeys gave up their rail spots and moved River Thames a few paths wide of the frontrunner, losing valuable ground. I'm not sure River Thames so much passed Neoequos (13th in the Derby) in the FoY as that foe faded. From there it looked like smooth sailing to victory before Sovereignty gunned him down to the short first-wire finish. Had Gulfstream used the usual finish line further down the track, it's a 4-5 length loss. Then when asked in the Bluegrass to move from a stalking third, River Thames ran evenly and never looked the winner. Oddsmaker clearly giving a Preakness nod to trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz , but to me minor awards the ceiling.

9. Gosger (20-1): Almost looked more professional in his second-place debut at Gulfstream in mid-December coming off the pace than he did in breaking his maiden in February, where he seemed to be tiring late. Stepped forward from that to win a soft Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland in April (the second-place finisher, Bracket Buster, finished 7th in his next out vs allowance company) but it's notable achievement in his third start. Still looks green to me from replay watching but may hit the board. Expect midpack start and maybe passes the faders.

1. Goal Oriented (6-1): There's no other reason this horse is as low as 6-1 beyond trainer Bob Baffert. It's a short price for a runner making his third lifetime start and comes out of an allowance win (the race including the aforementioned Bracket Buster). Baffert jumping 4-5 classes is a bullish signal that Goal Oriented can step forward, but I'm inclined to put him a few pegs below Gosger. Great trainer-jockey (Flavian Prat) combo isn't enough for me to bite on this big a class hike.  

5. Pay Billy (20-1): Maryland-based runner who got into the Preakness by virtue of a semi-controversial and not-so-impressive win in the Tesio at Laurel Park in April. He and another foe almost took out a horse going into the first turn yet wasn't DQ'd and had to hang on for dear life to beat a 22-1 shot to the finish. This is the equivalent of Monmouth Park giving local horses entry to the Haskell by winning smaller stakes. Nice raffle ticket for sure. Maybe an early factor but not a Grade 1 win contender.

3. American Promise (15-1): Lower-echelon distance horse who got a good ride in the Derby and was overbet down to 12-1 but finished 16th of 19. Zero excuse that day as jockey Nik Juarez saved ground and got his horse toward the lead in the backstretch before AP dropped anchor and showed he isn't Triple Crown quality. Virginia Derby prep in March was over-flattering (beat 17th-place Kentucky Derby finisher Render Judgement that day). Figure they'll wing it toward the front end again at Pimlico and cross fingers the horse gets brave and no one matches. Not my type.

4. Heart of Honor (12-1): New shooter who enters off a second-place finish in the UAE Derby to Admire Daytona, who finished dead last in the Kentucky Derby. Not touching this one with your money as Dubai shippers continue to disappoint in Triple Crowns and will be off the board here. 

Black-Eyed Susan Stakes 

The race, set to go off at 5:44 p.m. ET on Friday, has no one that belongs in the same conversation as Kentucky Oaks winner Good Cheer. 

That's why it's worth taking a chance on long-shots Princess Aliyah and Reply. 

One boasts a notable stakes win and the other seems like an up-and-comer.

We'll try to beat the morning-line favorites. 

2. Princess Aliyah (15-1): Consider upset prospect. Real grinder that should benefit from a return to two turns. Two races back on April 19, she sat just off the pace and wore them down in the stretch to win the Valley of the Vapors Stakes at Oaklawn at 8-1. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas tried her two weeks later in the 8 Belles (Grade 2) on Kentucky Oaks day but the cutback to seven-eighths of a mile and one turn was a detriment. Fractions were blistering and Princess Aliyah kept up a bit but faded about halfway. It looks like a toss, and a possible drop in class versus this field. Career-best speed figure is also tops. If Nik Juarez works out a clean break and engages her early, bombs away!

7. Reply (8-1): Local horse with only two lifetime starts including a game second in the Weber City Miss at Laurel Park in mid-April. It's hard to see a horse this inexperienced winning but trainer Brittany Russell has 9 wins, 1 second, and 1 third with 15 starters in the past 14 days per Equibase, and Irad Ortiz rides for Repole Stables. Upside potential is there.  

4. Runnin N Gunnin (5-2): Vulnerable favorite. Outperformed Princess Aliyah by 3.5 lengths in the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn in March but never competed with the top two, finishing third by almost 10 lengths. Wins in New Mexico, Texas, and Indiana flatter but those were against soft competition. In her other four races, losses were between 6-19 lengths. Not buying at this price, especially with zero apparent early speed and having to rely on a contested pace where foes melt down. Probably hits the board and will use underneath Princess Aliyah and Reply.

5. Kinzie Queen (10-1): Also-ran in the Fantasy, finishing fifth in her only graded stake. She's 2-for-12 lifetime, mostly against optional-claimers. Rider change to Derby winning jockey Junior Alvarado could be a plus considering Kinzie Queen's closing style, though I sense we're looking at minor-awards ceiling. Not sure how she does, too, off of Lasix medication.

8. Amarth (4-1): Faded late at 23-1 in the Busher Stakes after a big sweeping move into the stretch, where it looked like she was a shoe-in winner before dropping anchor. Is 0-for-3 as a three-year old. Two sharp workouts, but seems to lack stamina, and adding distance in the Black-Eyed Susan raises doubt.

6. Paris Lily (8-1): Held sway over Liam in the Dust in an optional claimer at Keeneland in April, gunning to the lead and going wire-to-wire for a win in the slop. This is another one with two low-rung wins. If anything, front-running tactic could prove beneficial. Interestingly, her best race may have been on debut in late September, where she finished a game fourth after a brutally troubled trip into the far turn; fell back over a dozen lengths, settled, and rallied. May need more experience.

3. Margie's Intention (3-1): Beyond the trainer change to Brad Cox, why is she the second choice? Louisiana-bred who hasn't faced open company in five starts, boasts maiden and allowance wins, and ran one-paced seconds in two state-bred stakes. Not a great field here, nor resume, so a Grade 2 win is a lot to ask. I'll gladly fund the post-race blood test if she wins dominantly.

9. Moon Cache (20-1): Ran with late interest to finish third behind Reply in the Weber City Miss, but her two wins in eight starts were against claimers. Not a factor.

1. Liam in the Dust (6-1): Something's amiss. In this gal's 3-year-old debut (Busher) at Aqueduct in March, it looked like she was standing still when passed by Amarth nearing the stretch, then ran a one-paced second to Paris Lily in the optional claimer noted above. A potentially talented horse in need of a long breather. Not touching.

Thoughts on the Preakness Pick 6 Sequence

Race 8 - $150,000 Chick Lange Stakes, 6 furlongs on dirt, 2:48 p.m. ET: The race goes through #8 One Nine Hundred (7-2), who has yet to face winners in his fourth lifetime start but on debut came close to beating stakes winner T Kraft and in his second start finished second to Lafayette Stakes winner Colloquial, who looks like a rising star. The question, like with a lot of these, is whether he can run without Lasix for the first time. I'll take my chances and use him with #7 Faster Gator (6-1), who battled multiple stakes winner Mo Plex hard in the Bayshore in mid-April, sharp-looking two-time winner #3 Ancient World (6-1), and #4 Normandy Coast (12-1). If playing the Pick 6, consider all four. 

Race 9 - $125,000 Jim McKay Turf Sprint, 5 furlongs on turf, 3:30 p.m. ET: The top two win prospects are #6 Coppola (2-1) and #4 Witty (10-1). They're a contrast in styles, with the former a lightning bolt from the gate and the latter a deep closer. My only hesitation in making Witty the top pick is that he seems to perform better at 5.5 furlongs and may need that extra sixteenth of a mile to be a winner. If Witty holds around his 10-1 morning line, I'll make a sizeable win bet. Else exactas with Coppola, who relishes the distance (six wins and 10-for-21 in the money) including stakes wins at this level. To me, any horse that can finish a game fourth of 12 in a prominent Grade 1 (Jaipur in June 2024) is legit. Might be tough as a win bet, though, if bet down closer to even money. I'll also use #5 Determined Kingdom (4-1) and #9 Fore Harp (5-1) in my Pick 5. 

Race 10 - $100,000 Sir Barton Stakes, mile and a sixteenth on dirt, 4:11 p.m. ET: I didn't love anyone in this field, but I'll go with 9-5 favorite #6 Invictus as a multirace-wager single in a field that doesn't knock my socks off. There's a lot to dislike about the favorite, namely that he just broke his maiden on April 8 and had to wait nine months to make that second lifetime start (tried as a 2-year-old at Saratoga last July and finished a well beaten 7th of 10). Winstar Farms thought enough of him to spend $1.2 million at the Keeneland September 2023 yearling sale, so with that sort of investment, patience is understandable in light of a longer-term ownership view. If you watch the replay of his recent win, he broke from the gate in a 7-furlong race like a shot, then settled nicely into a stalking spot before prompting was needed in the stretch to get him to grab the lead and win by 2.5 lengths. Still looked somewhat green in the lane, unsure of which lead to be on, but just before the wire you could see a shift to the proper lead and he exploded a bit. I sense this is a horse on the up, gaining racing intelligence, and will appreciate two turns...and frankly isn't facing the stiffest of competition here. Second choice #1 Crudo (5-2) is another trying winners for the first time, and his debut win (at Keeneland in April, like Invictus') was a lot slower by comparison. Third-choice #7 Hymn (4-1) has a shot, having run competitively 2x at two turns. I'll roll the bones with Invictus.

Race 11 - $100,000 James W. Murray Stakes, 1 mile on turf, 4:53 p.m. ET: This is the second consecutive race where I'm singling a horse in my multirace exotics. #5 End of Romance (9-2) is meant for turf. A game third in the $250,000 Rushaway Stakes on the Turfway Park synthetic in his 3-year-old debut in March, then a late-rushing fifth on turf in a paceless Woodhaven at Aqueduct in April. That closing kick into slow fractions, and a favorable rider change to John Velazquez, should help. I sense the morning line may be too high, with trainer Graham Motion's other horse in the race, #6 Soleil Volant, installed as 7-2 second choice and unable to win in easier spots, so I'm inclined to dismiss. Race favorite (5-2) #7 Reagan's Wit ran second and fourth in his 2025 stakes yet may be overbet. The value is with End of Romance. If for some reason the race is moved to dirt, keep tabs on #4 Barbadian Runner (12-1), who has two overnight stakes wins on the main track; just doesn't look like a turf horse.

Race 12 - $250,000 Grade 3 Dinner Party Stakes, mile and an eighth on turf, 5:52 p.m. ET: This is the most competitive race in the sequence, with six of 13 runners having a shot and #4 Neat (8-1) getting the nod over #6 Balnikhov (9-2) and #13 Trikari (5-2). Pace sets up well for a tactical stalker-closer like Neat to capitalize. He's a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed contestant and is 6-for-12 lifetime on the turf. Trikari gets the outside draw and also gets a great setup, but his last three races give me pause to support with a win bet at short odds. Balnikhov looks to defend his title and is capable of closing fast into slow fractions, which is something I often favor when handicapping turf races. Also keep an eye on #3 Signator (8-1), #8 Crystal Quest (10-1) and #10 Fort Washington (5-1) as contenders. 

Race 13 - $2 million Preakness Stakes, mile and three-sixteenths on dirt, 7:01 p.m. ET: As noted exhaustively above, my top three are #8 Clever Again (5-1), #2 Journalism (8-5), and #7 Sandman, so nothing scientific. All three will be in my Pick 5 wagers. 

Preakness Pick 5 (50-cent base), races 9-13, total cost $18 (4x1x1x3x3): For me, the sequence isn't ridiculously appealing, so I'll hope to be right consecutively in races 10-11 and spread some elsewhere.

• Race 9: 4, 5, 6, 9
• Race 10: 6
• Race 11: 5 (if switched to dirt, will use 4 and 8)
• Race 12: 4 6 13
• Race 13: 2 7 8

Saturday Derby Wagers, Final Thoughts

If you've yet to tune into Derby Day coverage, Churchill Downs is listed as sloppy (dirt) and good (turf), and with more rain in the forecast, the maintenance team will do its best to keep the 2025 Kentucky Derby from quagmire conditions by sealing the track.

Due to wet surfaces and also with a $335 payout on my $10 Oaks-Derby daily double wager to Luxor Cafe if he wins, I've altered my bankroll allocation toward more bullish thoughts on the undercard and am unlikely to bet Luxor Cafe to win but endorse him as my top pick.  

You'll notice a few exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers specific to the Derby and I'll try to score on two key opinions (#7 Mindframe at 3-1 in race 8 and #8 Cameo Performance at 20-1 in race 11). If playing the earlier races, I'd endorse win-place-show wagers on these, especially Cameo.

Here's what I remain alive to from yesterday:

• $10 Oaks-Derby daily double 11 with 7 (will pay $334.90) = $10
• $1 Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby pick 3: 11 with 8 10 with 7 8 = $4 (will pay TBD)
• Will be out of Oaks-Derby pick 6 unless it pays 5 out of 6: 2 with 11 with 7 with 3 5 with 8 10 with 7 8 = $8

Saturday wagers totaling $107:

• Race 8: $5 exacta - 7 with 6, 8 = $10
• Race 8: $1 pick 3 - 7 with 2 3 5 7 13 with 11 = $5
• Race 8: $0.50 pick 5 - 6 7 8 with 3 5 with 7 8 11 with 8 10 with 7 8 = $36
• Added #8 Hoist the Gold (20-1) in race 8 considering wet track and early pace
• Bummed that #8 Charlie's to Blame scratched from race 9; using #3 New Century (3-1) in that leg as a substitute
• Swapped #8 as third horse for #2 Kopion in race 10, hopefully doesn't bite me later
• Race 9: pass
• Race 10: $2 exacta key box 11 with 7 8 = $8
• Race 11: $1 daily double 8 with ALL = $19
• Bullish on Cameo Performance as big longshot but with scratches in that race speculate I'll get better value if he wins and I catch a big price in the Derby
• Race 12: $0.50 trifecta - 7 8 with 7 8 16 with 3 7 8 9 13 16 17 18 21 = $14
• Race 12: $1 exacta - 3 8 16 17 21 with 7 = $5
• Backup play of ones I like and could beat Luxor Cafe, with my preferred horse finishing second; alive to a nice score in the payout leg of Oaks-Derby double, there's no point in me betting Luxor Cafe to win, especially with odds down to 9-1 at this point
• Race 12: $1 superfecta - 8 with 7 16 with 7 16 17 with 3 13 17 = $10
• Lottery-type wager using Journalism first; another backup type flyer with Luxor Cafe second and third

  

Kentucky Oaks and Derby Pick 5 Analysis

I've updated the Kentucky Derby blog below to account for the scratches of Rodriguez and Grande and inclusion of Baeza. More on that below, but here I'll touch on the Oaks (Derby equivalent for 3-year-old fillies) and the four races preceding Saturday's Derby and comprising that Pick 5 sequence. 

The Derby Pick 5 is generally a money burner for me but you only live once.

Kentucky Oaks (Friday)

Scheduled for 5:51 p.m. ET, there's no looking past 6-5 favorite Good Cheer. 

She's 6-for-6 and has won stylishly and without provocation. If she trades at or above the morning line (at print she was a steal at 7-5), back up the Brink's. I'll single her in Oaks-Derby doubles more prominently with Luxor Cafe (15-1) than Journalism (3-1); so if playing at home, wagers for the double will be 11 (Good Cheer) with 7-8. I'll await the will-pays before determining amounts.

Underneath Good Cheer in exactas-tris-supers, Bob Baffert trainee #9 Tenma (12-1) has faced such grim fields in California preps that it scared me off her as a winner, but she looks promising to hit the board, along with #10 Take Charge Milady (12-1) and #3 Fondly (20-1).

Kentucky Derby Pick 5 Sequence

Back to Saturday's action, the Derby undercard from races 8-11 is difficult and clearly I've not learned that nickle-and-dimers can't take down a share of what'll be an enormous pot. Yet like the cabinet in my house that's stocked with fine bourbons (between keystrokes, sipping Eagle Rare in a 1976 Kentucky Derby mint julep glass), it's sometimes hard to resist donating $20-$30 to the pool. 

Here's a brief on each Pick 5 race and my picks, which I'll use more in win and exacta wagers.

Race 8, Churchill Downs Stakes, 3:23 p.m.: #7 Mindframe (3-1) looked unchallenged winning the GP Mile in early March off an 8-month hiatus from close seconds in the 2024 Haskell and Belmont, both of which he lost to Dornach. This is a serious horse who is at the right distance on Saturday (seven-eighths of a mile). Looks to me like a one-turn horse and he's tactical enough to win from the front, middle or rear. #6 Extra Anejo (12-1) rounds out my exacta; ran game fourth in the Haskell and in his 5-year-old debut won the 7-furlong Grade 3 Commonwealth, a good prep for Saturday. 

Race 9, American Turf, 4:06 p.m.: The field's too deep (14 go to post) for any horse to get 3-1 favoritism as the oddsmaker has set #3 New Century, especially in a race somewhat devoid of early speed. As a result, I'm giving the edge to #8 Charlie's to Blame (8-1) as winner. Last race is a complete toss; connections took a turf specialist into a Derby prep where he didn't belong and on Saturday returns to a more logically and realistic surface and distance. This guy sports a nice wire-to-wire win in the Kitten's Joy in February and I believe can do the same here. I'll put #5 Test Score (10-1) underneath as there's nothing to dislike about his form and connections.

Race 10, Derby City Distaff, 4:50 p.m.: Another deep field of 14. Anticipating a pace meltdown in this seven-eighths affair, #11 Positano Sunset (12-1) has appeal for a prominent win wager. You have to look five races back in her past performances to find a second-place finish to Zeitlos, which provides a great "company line" to back this one. She comes off two come-from-behind wins, including the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland in April, and won that one at 14-1. I anticipate people will dismiss her again, setting up for potentially good value. I'm inclined to play her in an exacta box with #7 Vahva (6-1), who's 4-for-4 on this track and tried the deepest of waters in last year's Breeders Cup (8th in the Filly and Mare Turf Sprint), and #2 Kopion (8-1), a West Coast speedster boasting wins at grades 1-3. 

Race 11, Turf Classic, 5:39 p.m.: Tepid on the field in general after my potential best bet of Saturday (#11 Brilliant Berti) opted for (and won, at 9-5) Thursday's $350k Opening Verse Stakes. I'll take a (big) flyer on #8 Cameo Performance (20-1) over #10 Spirit of St Louis (9-2). Now, both of these guys lost on March 22 in the Grade 2 Muniz at Fairgrounds to an 86-1 bomber but Cameo was running for the first time in seven months off a decent 3-year-old campaign and was a beaten third by only three-quarters of a length. I like that he made up ground in a fairly paceless race and feel he can compete on Saturday. Also note that jockey Luis Saez and trainer Brendan Walsh are 4-for-7 in the last 60 days with a +4.11 ROI, so in a field that's middling by Grade 1 standards, it's worth a shot. Spirit of St Louis, for the less informed, is a cool sort as a NY bred that has already banked $1.2 million and is 10-for-15 lifetime. 

Race 12, Kentucky Derby, 6:57 p.m.: This one's largely about in-race wagering for me (will share Derby-specific wagers by Saturday morning) and so I'll keep to my top two selections for Pick 5 purposes - #7 Luxor Cafe (15-1) and #8 Journalism (3-1).

NJ Horseplayer's Annual 50-Cent Pick 5 Donation (top picks in bold): 6, 7 with 5, 8 with 2, 7, 11 with 8, 10 with 7, 8 = $24 total. 

Kentucky Derby 2025 Preview

It's been some time since I've shared thoughts on horse racing.

Yet with a challenge from a few friends on the National Handicapping Championship circuit to re-engage with my enormous audience, now's as good a time as any to shake off the rust.

I'm starting with my annual analysis of the Kentucky Derby field.

I watched just about every prep race replay on each of the 20 (+1) runners expected to break from the starting gate when the spring latches just before 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 3, and have analyzed PPs in unison. Please enjoy what's to follow and feel free to use if playing, or to poke fun at me. 

I'll update the blog later this week once settled on my selections and handicapped the Pick 5 sequence + Friday's Kentucky Oaks (for Oaks-Derby doubles), but as of 1:40 a.m. ET on the final day of April lean toward Luxor Cafe over Journalism as my win selection. Perhaps it's the late hour, but something tells me the annual hype for Japanese shippers is real in 2025. We'll see.

Top four

7. Luxor Cafe (15-1): Serious win contender. This horse is based in Japan but is a 3-year-old son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and was bred in Kentucky. I don't follow Japanese racing but Luxor Cafe's 5-length win in the Fukuryu Stakes in March was as stylish as any you'll see, stalking from midpack and pouncing on the competition with little prompting. Brazilian jockey Joao Moreira makes his maiden Derby start but gets a favorable post for midpack start and strong finish if the horse is good enough.

8. Journalism (3-1): Deserving favorite and ships from California after winning three straight stakes, but has he been tested? Needed to beat only four foes in each of those races and has gaudy Brisnet speed figures, but visually seems to need more constant reminders to get going than Luxor Cafe and perhaps finds himself having too much to do late in a 20-horse Derby field. I think he hits the board and is a win contender, but morning line is too short for my liking; even 7-2 would be more enticing. Using, though. 

16. Coal Battle (30-1): Perhaps the feel-good story of the 2025 Derby. Obscure connections, $70,000 horse out of a sire with a mere $2,000 stud fee, and has looked completely classy in his preps, with five wins including the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes and stylish stakes victories in the Smarty Jones, Springboard Mile, and Jean Lafitte (the latter two at casino tracks). Ran the final sixteenth of a mile in the Rebel in a rapid 6.1 seconds and showed another gear. Tactical (has won wire-to-wire and off the pace) and is regularly ridden by little-known Juan Vargas. Should get a clean break with horses of zero gate speed in posts 13-15 and 17-18 and I think will be fun to watch. Not sure he wins but will hit the board and spice up the exacta thru superfecta. Keen to watch this guy the rest of this season. Hard knocker.

17. Sandman (6-1): Juxtapose this $1.2 million OBS purchase with Coal Battle and it's what makes thoroughbred racing so great. Everyone has a chance. After eating Coal Battle's dust with a late third-place run in the Rebel, Sandman got revenge and the jump on his nemesis in the March 29 Arkansas Derby to win by 2+ lengths. The pace was hot in both but I'm not sure will be blistering in the Derby, and Sandman has zero speed from the gate, which is why I put him (tactically) beneath basement bargain Coal Battle. Sandman's in my top four. Can win, but closers tend not to win the Derby. 

Useful in exacta, trifecta, and superfecta

18. Sovereignty (5-1): Yet another closer type with limited early speed and that does his best running late. Have to respect this Bill Mott trainee and the return of regular rider Junior Alvarado. Truth be told, however, I've never had success betting these connections and so I'll keep among the options to round out the exacta. Most stylish win was as a two-year-old in the Street Sense in late October; blew by the competition, including Sandman, who finished third. Yet I think Sovereignty's two preps in Florida had subpar competition, which is why I downgrade a touch in my Derby preferences. 

3. Final Gambit (30-1): Deep closer that merits a look. May be last from the gate, but that's OK in light of the inner post and considering he got bumped hard at the start of his last race (Grade 3 Ruby), settled, and started gaining steam late before running away by three-plus lengths. Brad Cox trainee and is probably meant for grass based on his debut in November at Churchill Downs. Trying dirt for the first time is a concern, but I'm inclined to use underneath at big odds.

21. Baeza (AE; 12-1): Enters the starting gate after Rodriguez was scratched on Thursday and is worth a look as an early pacesetter. Almost beat morning line favorite Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby and was a super-game second. Odds reflect he's better than many runners that earned enough points to make the field. Serious pedigree and listed jockey is Flavien Prat, who's a significant get for Baeza. Prat departs Neoequos for this mount. 

9. Burnham Square (12-1): True grinder who has done his best running late. Connections gambled on debut, entering this guy into a $150k maiden claimer in October (you, me, or anyone else could have put up the money to buy this Derby runner), and suspect they'll roll the dice on a pace meltdown early and picking up the pieces late. Inclined to keep below the cut line considering perceived lack of quality fields in Derby preps. See as top half finisher but not a win contender. 

1. Citizen Bull (20-1): Peaked at the right time, winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile last November at nearly 16-1 on home surface and won 3-year-old debut in February impressively at a mile, but feels more like a Belmont Stakes horse (in a typical year). Isn't sprinter fast but prefers the lead and seems willing to run all day. Rail is the absolute worst draw in the Derby as reflected in the odds but he's useful at the bottom of tri and super plays if he can break cleanly, ride the rail, and not get jostled. 

13. Publisher (30-1): Normally, I'd completely dismiss a horse with zero lifetime victories. Yet this maiden has Derby distance pedigree (son of American Pharoah), improved in his past two (second in the Arkansas Derby, fourth in the Rebel), and great connections between Steve Asmussen (most wins ever by North American trainer) and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. No apparent speed but deep closer who perhaps finds the finish line before the faders to round out a trifecta or superfecta. Passing as a win prospect as the Derby's a lot to ask of an 0-for-7 horse.

Take a pass (or use if your favorite name, number, or saddle color)

6. Admire Daytona (30-1): Courageous win in three-horse stretch battle in Dubai stakes on April 5 to get into the Derby starting gate but I'll write this one off as a win contender. Has lost 2x head-to-head to fellow Japanese entrant Luxor Cafe but I have concerns on pedigree and have never put much credence in Dubai winners. Pass.

14. Tiztastic (20-1): The "other" Asmussen. Louisiana Derby win from far off the pace looks like an outlier. First two wins were as a 2-year-old on grass at the elite Kentucky Downs fall meet, which is how this horse has banked $1.5 million already, most in the field. Put below Publisher, who likely has more upside as a dirt distance runner and beat Tiztastic to the finish by almost 3 lengths in the Rebel. 

12. East Avenue (20-1): Precocious sort who crushed the field in the Grade 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland in October but has regressed speed-wise since a bad stumble in November's Breeders Cup Juvenile. Tough nose loss to Burnham Square after being rushed to the lead in the Bluegrass but sense field was weak and he's exhausted. He'll rush to the lead. Eager to see how long he lasts there. 

20. Owen Almighty (30-1): Maybe draws a lot of Sunday collection money from the clergy but true longshot who'll sprint toward the lead and likely get strung wide before fading halfway around. Tampa Bay Derby win was vs. a small field for that particular race (just 7 runners), followed with a weak effort in the Bluegrass. Horses from that prep never really seem to factor from what I recall. Pass. 

2. Neoequos (30-1): Florida-bred without a stakes win is a reach. Flavien Prat leaves this one for Baeza and is replaced by Luis Saez, who I assume will rush this sprinter to the lead and hope for a miracle. 

5. American Promise (30-1): It would be amazing if 89-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas wins, but I don't see it here off a quirky one-turn Virginia Derby that was a bad field. AP is 0-for-2 at long odds in graded stakes tries (VA wasn't) and shows a preference to be on the lead; so maybe you'll hear his name early mix but doubtful late. Pass.

19. Chunk of Gold (30-1): Gold prices are through the roof on account of our Grifter in Chief but Goldy's 0-for-3 in stakes races and a tough post. Here by virtue of second-place finishes in two Grade 2s (Louisiana Derby and Risen Star at Fairgrounds) but faded late in both. Only win was on synthetic surface. Should be longer than 30-1. Go long white metal gold, short Chunk of Gold on Saturday.

11. Flying Mohawk (30-1): Surprised the oddsmaker didn't make him 50-1. Clearly a turf horse who earned Derby spot via 2nd-place Ruby finish but looked like he was standing still when passed late by Final Gambit. Little to suggest he'll hit the board. Oh, taking blinkers off . Equipment change? Pass.

15. Render Judgment (30-1): Eight lengths off Virginia Derby winner American Promise is the best he has done outside of maiden victory in late 2024. Seems well overmatched.

Ponies for Preakness Pick 5

(Updated Saturday 11 a.m. ET for scratches and Pick 5 wagers)

Let's see you say the headline 3x fast...

I had zero success with my Kentucky Derby Pick 5 plays, so I've mapped out Saturday's Pick 5 sequence from Races 9-13, culminating in the Preakness Stakes, and over breakfast at literally the Roadside Diner tapped the minds of fellow cappers Steve and Marie Fitzpatrick to map out combined wagers for the sequence. From our $200 bankroll, below we allocate $173 to Pick 5s; the rest we'll utilize in other situations based on weather conditions as the day progresses.

If playing the undercard, here are some thoughts on Races 9-12.

For now, we'll assume the grass stakes remain on "good" or "yielding" turf. In the event that the first leg shifts to dirt, we'll use #2 Copper Tax, #5 Speedyness and #6 Naptown.

Race 9, James W. Murphy Stakes (3:30 p.m. ET)

A few connections will be doing a rain dance in hopes of this one getting washed off the turf. If that happens, the best is #2 Copper Tax (7-5), who has been crushing foes on the Maryland circuit. Did nothing against the likes of Dornoch and Sierra Leone in the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct in December but deserves a pass vs. Saturday's field, which is way inferior. Use him and elevate #5 Speedyness (10-1), a fellow Maryland-based horse, if in the mud. We'll also use #6 Naptown (8-1) on dirt, citing past races on that and synthetic services and out of respect for trainer Graham Motion. If the race stays on turf as carded, it's a complete crapshoot as about half the field of 12 has never run on grass and the others are not very good. #4 Twirling Point (4-1) was original mine and Fitz's top choice on turf but has been scratched. As a result, we've ID'd #12 Fulmineo (9-2) as top selection along with #7 Crystal Quest (6-1) and will use Naptown and #11 Tocayo (8-1) as "B" selections and #10 Abrumar (5-1) on one ticket.

• Pick 5 selections: A - 7, 12 | B - 6, 11

Race 10, Sir Barton Stakes (4:10 p.m. ET) 

Unless heavy rains wash races off the turf, this is the first of two dirt races in the sequence, with eight horses slated to run one and one-sixteenth of a mile. The favorites (#5 Corporate Power, 9-5, and #8 Tuscan Sky, 5-2) seemed beatable and, sadly, Tuscan Sky was scratched. Corporate Power wearing blinkers for the first time is peculiar and will be used as a "B" selection. The two I like most are #10 Imperial Gun (7-2) and #4 D Day Sky (15-1). Imperial Gun was aggressively placed in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and got drifted out badly in the early backstretch by a horse but kept trying and finished 7th to the likes of Muth, Just Steel and Mystik Dan. That level of foes gives him an edge here vs. much softer competition. In the race prior, he lost to Pat Day Mile winner Seize the Gray, so logically he's faced the best foes in this field yet shown a penchant to be one-paced. Joel Rosario returns to ride after guiding Imperial Gun to his maiden victory and  close second in a minor stakes at Oaklawn Park. 

Meanwhile, D Day Sky is worth taking a flier. Switched last race to a new (winning) barn and, though it was against fellow maidens, seemed to mature after about a three-month break and without blinkers a first time. Not incredibly stiff competition but he took decently to the extended 9-furlong distance and his two best (of five) races were at two turns, including a third-place finish vs. Derby entrant and stakes winner Track Phantom in late November. Irad Ortiz rides and is a significant upgrade from the likes of Eddie Perez and Chris Landeros, who rode him before Kendrick Carmouche's expert handling in the maiden score at Aqueduct on April 5. D Day Sky definitely deserves a look.

• Pick 5 selections: A - 10 | B - 3, 4, 5

Race 11, Jim McKay Turf Sprint (4:53 p.m. ET) 

It's a 12-horse field that I've narrowed to two potential winners and give #11 Witty (9-2) the edge over #12 Beer Can Man (5-2). The latter is a hard-knocking six-year-old that has competed well in numerous graded stakes and takes a big class drop here from the Grade 2 Shakertown at Keeneland in early April in a bid to repeat as Turf Sprint champ. Post 12 shouldn't be a huge detriment to a horse of this caliber in a lesser field. Yet I'm more intrigued by Witty, who won a local stakes in his 2024 debut at Laurel Park and does his best running late, which should be a factor in a race with tons of early speed. 

• Pick 5 selections: A - 11, 12 | B - 2, 9, 10

Race 12, Dinner Party Stakes (5:52 p.m. ET) 

Major race-day scratch of #10 Emmanuel (5-2) and lacking strong conviction in picking a winner, I'll pick #1 Highland Chief (12-1) as top choice. This 9-furlong turf race has 12 runners and a lot of big, established names yet lacks a pound-the-table bullish favorite. Scratch of #12 Funtastic Again (12-1) is also significant; not a horse I would have played to win but clearly best among the 2-3 frontrunners that included no-chance #8 Helms Deep (50-1). Fitz and I agreed that Highland Chief, a 7-year-old with lots of back class including the Grade 1 Man O'War Stakes at Belmont in May of 2022, has the edge if healthy. He ran 4x after that win but was kept in the barn for about 18 months before surfacing in the Grade 2 Elkhorn at Keeneland last month. Chief got an odd ride from John Velazquez, who strangled his keen horse in the backstretch and made a nice move into the homestretch but flattened as one might expect of a long layoff horse. We agree that the rider change to local jockey and Graham Motion go-to Jorge Ruiz is a potential positive, assuming he lets Highland Chief get into the race earlier. I don't see the distance as a problem and would consider a win wager on this veteran horse. 

• Pick 5 selections: A - 1, 2, 5 | B - 3, 9

Race 13, Preakness Stakes (7:01 p.m. ET) 

Full horse-by-horse analysis is below, but I'm singling #8 Tuscan Gold (8-1). I'm willing to die on the hill for this one and dislike the other seven, assuming the Derby Day runners will look fatigued and the other new shooters are subpar. Steve's top choice is #3 Catching Freedom (6-1), who makes sense for top connections. Defensively, we used three others in the event we're still alive in the final leg.

• Pick 5 selections: A - 3, 8 | B - 5, 6, 9

Pick 5 Plays (50-Cent Denominations)

• 6 7 11 12 | 10 | 11 12 | 1 2 5| 3 5 6 8 9 = $60
• 7 12 | 3 4 5 | 11 12 | 1 2 5 | 3 8 = $36
• 7 12 | 10 | 2 9 10 | 1 2 5 | 3 8 = $18
• 7 12 | 10 | 11 12 | 3 9 | 3 8 = $8
• 6 11 | 3 4 5 | 11 12 | 1 2 5 | 3 8 = $36
• 6 7 10 11 12 | 10 | 11 | 3 9 | 5 6 9 = $15
• If Race 9 goes main track/dirt: 2 5 6 | 10 | 11 12 | 1 2 5 | 3 8 = $18
• This would replace the first line above

No Triple Crown Winner!? Good As Gold

Muth's scratch from the 2024 Preakness Stakes both eliminates the presumptive favorite and makes Mystik Dan's connections look smarter for entering in hopes of a Triple Crown.

My opinions below on each of Saturday's eight Preakness runners are based on Mystik Dan getting an absolute dream trip to win the Kentucky Derby and that a repeat will not be in order in Baltimore. I still think he hits the board, but this field is fairly weak. 

I sense the race shapes up similarly and that Dan might get the exact same trip, but to me the rigors of the Run for the Roses campaign were sure to cut into the horse's sharpness, and so I'm downgrading his win chances in the second leg of racing's Triple Crown.

Tuscan Gold is the horse I like most and that I believe could retain odds closer his morning line than others in the field. Great trainer who missed winning the Derby by 1-2 jumps and has won the Preakness twice (2017 and 2022). Very creditable third-place finish in his first start vs. graded company and 1x vs. winners. For my money, this one has the best chance of stepping forward. 

The Win Contenders

8. Tuscan Gold (8-1). Win selection. This horse was on the outside looking in for the Kentucky Derby, finishing 28th among potential qualifiers, yet no shame in that as he's the most lightly raced three-year-old in the Preakness. Trainer Chad Brown has a very live one here, in my opinion. The horse's only race at age two was in early November in a maiden race won by Sierra Leone; was a good foundation for his next race and 2024 debut win in late January at Gulfstream Park, where he still looked a tad inexperienced but exploded late in the stretch when prompted. Brown tried him in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 23, where he ran third and did much of the heavy lifting as far as a wide trip and helping to set the tempo, along with some jostling in the early stretch. Kept running yet lost to presumptive Preakness favorite Catching Freedom and Kentucky Derby runner Honor Marie by less than two lengths. To me, this looks like an intelligent horse that could be tactical and will move up on Saturday. Even if he doesn't win, I sense he may have the most upside among Preakness entrants. Keying in all wagers.

4. Muth (8-5). Spiked a fever and scratched, which is unfortunate, considering he'd have been a play-against for me and taken money away from the horses I like more. 

Exacta and Trifecta Consideration

5. Mystik Dan (5-2). Everything went his way in winning the Kentucky Derby and jockey Brian J. Hernandez, Jr. made the winning rail move and the horse held on for dear life. Trainer Ken McPeek has trained a zillion horses vs. zero for me, and I know that everyone loves Triple Crown winners, but I just don't see it here. With zero speed to his inside, Hernandez could work out another perfect rail-skimmer and potentially have enough left to outlast the field, and so I think he'll sit third or fourth through the backstretch and hope to make a big inside run again but wonder if he'll have the energy after an exhaustive Derby experience. Will use underneath but could see wilting in the stretch. Gets a slice, then a well-deserved rest before a more attainable spot like the Haskell.

3. Catching Freedom (6-1). Sticking to my post-Kentucky Derby analysis of CF's trip: "identified as fourth best in field and ran to that placement; very slight checks passing clubhouse first time around but otherwise a clean, ground-saving trip yet never quite gained on Mystik Dan, which is the alarming part about using him bullishly down the road when the second- and third-place runners had wider trips and more gas int he tank late." This Brad Cox trainee will take too much money and be bettors' second choice if not the favorite when the gate opens. Did beat my top Preakness choice Tuscan Gold to the wire in the Louisiana Derby but everything went his way that afternoon and I think maybe we've seen the ceiling of Catching Freedom for now whereas Tuscan Gold moves forward. Still, hits the board since he's a grinder and won't quit. 

2. Uncle Heavy (20-1). I would elevate him to maybe a second-place contender if it's a muddy Preakness but otherwise put the ceiling at third or fourth with a major rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz. Is an incredibly slow horse from the gate, akin to the foes on each side (Mugatu in post 1, Catching Freedom in post 3) but started career as a sprinter and won on debut, beating a 1-5 shot at Parx. Two best races were versus much lesser and on sealed surfaces, so if Pimlico is treated equally to keep the rain off, elevate this one in your wagers. Sense that Ortiz will track Mystik Dan and sit midpack, then cross fingers that the pacesetters fade and Derby horses don't respond. Robert Reid -- no relation to Mike of Brady Bunch fame -- is a strong Northeastern trainer who often has live stakes horses. Could do no better than fifth in the Grade 2 Wood at Aqueduct in April, and as noted pre-Derby, runners from that one will never find my Triple Crown tickets as winners. Yet this guy's worth a look, especially on mud.

9. Imagination (6-1). Consummate grinder. In photo-type finishes in four of six lifetime starts but prognosticators are remiss to consider this Bob Baffert trainee (and second fiddle to scratched favorite Muth) a speed horse. No doubt will be forwardly placed from the gate but I think both D. Wayne Lukas-trained horses Seize the Grey and Just Steel are quicker. If you agree with that premise, then Imagination has shown nothing beyond sitting first or second throughout races and might not like a speed duel or taking dirt to the face. I sense bettors will get no better than 4-1 and would pass. Plus he was beaten head-to-head in the Santa Anita Derby by Stronghold, who I viewed as a California B teamer, so I'm not putting much stock in that one's 7th place Kentucky Derby finish to elevate Imagination to winner status.

Not Getting My Money

6. Seize the Grey (15-1). Ran a great race to win the Pat Day Mile two weeks ago on the Kentucky Derby undercard but that was a 1-turn mile in which the factions were blistering and the better of the D. Wayne Lucas trainees (Just Steel, below, is the other) outlasted everyone else and the competitors ran the final quarter in more than 26 seconds. I'm downgrading this horse of that effort and will assume he could use some rest. Did little in Grade 3 and Grade 1 preps for the Derby, so I question if he's capable of winning at two turns. I sense Lukas will have Just Steel sprint, with Seize the Grey right behind, then hope one of them gets lucky and hangs on. Pass.

7. Just Steel (15-1). Big jockey upgrade from 17th-place Kentucky Derby finish to Joel Rosario from Keith Asmussen but I maintain this is a 6-8 furlong horse that, much like two weeks ago, will be in the mix until they turn for home. Credit the horse for second-place tries vs. Muth in the Arkansas Derby and Mystik Dan in the Southwest -- both at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas -- but with just two weeks rest and a spotty 2-for-12 record, I'm passing and sense he'll be the pacesetter for stablemate Seize the Grey.

1. Mugatu (20-1). Scraped paint in the Bluegrass prep for the Derby and passed some tired back markers to finish fifth at 181-to-1 but nowhere close to win threat. Slow from the gate. Slow on paper. Slow on replay. Jersey Joe Bravo may need a miracle to finish top half in the Preakness. Pass.