Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Saratoga Bad-Trip Horses ROI: 20.9%

A 21% return isn't half bad through my three-week (of five) test of notional $2 win-place bets on horses making starts following races where they had a legitimate excuse for losing (e.g., jockey error, interference, bumping). 

Thus far, 4 of 14 won, two finished second, and two finished third. As posted previously, Sky Low Low's ground wasting at almost 14-1 cost my ROI substantially on a three-quarter length loss, but we move forward.

I've reviewed the past two weeks' races for more bad-trip horses to add; there are two new ones below.

Otherwise, a few are entered during the August 26-30 week at Saratoga Race Course.

Here's what's ahead thru Travers Day:

  • Madagascar (5-1): Thursday, August 27, Race 6
  • Coach Case (8-5): Thursday, August 27, Race 9
  • Ah Ca Ira (3-1): Friday, August 28, Race 2
  • Ed Charles (15-1): Friday, August 28, Race 6
    • Will give another shot after his follow-up clunker a few weeks ago; still young horse
  • Whitethorn (10-1): Friday, August 28, Race 8
  • Queen of Hawaii (2-1): Saturday, August 29, Race 10

Two Bad Trip Additions from August 12-16 

It's late in the meet and I'm not certain how many of the horses that ran last week will be entered before Labor Day closing, but here's two that experienced what'd I'd consider to be notable issues costing them placement and that are worth a look next out.

  • Miel Et Citron: Sent off at 63-1 for very low-percentage connections but checked a few times in race 3 on August 12, then bottled up but ran late with interest; useful sprinter potentially in final week(s) but Douglas Seyler (trainer) is caveat emptor -- 4-for-59 in 2026 with 4 seconds and 4 thirds and never won more than 8% since 2009, and is winless in 10 starts this meet. Yet he also trains Ratu Jawa, another bad tripper and a longshot that ran well last week. Miel ET Citron is 0-for-5 but speed figures have improved incrementally and a game sixth in SAR3 on August 12 in a 5.5-furlong turf sprint. Will be boxcar odds again but I'd be willing to use if entered. (Click horse's name above for head-on replay; watch #6 wearing neon pink cap and dotted silks.)
  • Whatever It Takes: Professional 2YO debut August 14, SAR6, maiden special weight. Watch #2 on the replay link. Bumped before first turn, then slight check/bobble early backstretch, bottled in, mild 3-wide move into stretch, then ran well for third; greener in early stages but improved late race, wheel back during the final week(s).
There was nothing notable to add from August 19-23 and so it's unlikely I'll add new horses to the list.

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