Last week was fairly quiet on the Saratoga bad-trip circuit, with Gum (+9.08) winning stylishly over Grace of Monaco (-$4) in Wednesday's finale.
Mrs. NJ Horseplayer and I were in Saratoga but couldn't make it to the track on time to witness in person. Instead, we attended on Thursday (hit the early Pick 4 -- paid a measly $21 on a $4.50 ticket and still couldn't scratch out a profit for the day but had fun dressed up in the BEST Backstretch box) -- and the first half of Friday before heading with friends to Vermont for the rest of the weekend.
A notional $2 win-place bet on Gum and GoM rendered a $1.08 profit on $8 wagered -- nothing to write home about but still a positive ROI (+26%) and 3-for-7 record during this exercise.
Ratu Jawa wisely scratched at 50-1 from Friday's feature and is among, count 'em, five from my bad trip list that are entered this Thursday and Friday, when I'll be back on track (this time with The Saratogian's Wise Owl and RedRockorBust), and these will be key to my (mis)fortunes this week. I'll use them as keys in multirace wagers and in higher-denomination win-place wagers.
As a reminder (some notes copied from prior posts and observations)...
Thursday, August 20
- Race 2: Hong Kong Phooey (8-1) - "Lower-level sort but trip notes COMPLETELY understated being cut off from gate, checking badly and falling 15 lengths behind in 5.5f off-turf sprint in mud; but horse continued to work and responded to Flavian (Prat) well, miraculous 4th. Is potentially useful as turf or off-turf play." A bit of postscript:
- Prat rides again for trainer Rudy Rodriguez, 5.5 furlongs on turf, post 7 of 8
- HKP draws post 7 of 8 and is trying the "non-winners of two lifetime" condition a fifth time but at least fits this group, which includes 3 facing winners a first time and 3 facing winners only a second time. Thursday's start will be HKP's 10th and most were against stiffer competition where the connections overshot the horse's potential.
- Race 8: River Tay (10-1) - "Dylan Davis had rail throughout on August 2, race 4, kept inside and made bad move trying to pass leader in stretch on rail instead of going to open 2-3 path; cost the horse the race + place where the winner came from the back and easily won; keen horse who is capable, always tries; play back later in meet. Subject to a back trip, jockey's decision."
- Davis rides again on Thursday for trainer Bruce Brown, 5.5 furlongs on turf, post 4 of 9
- Cutback from 9 furlongs to 5.5 furlongs may confuse, but River Tay is 1-for-2 at this distance and is 5-for-21 lifetime on turf. It's a 9-horse field where none jump out.
- River Tay also hasn't had a published work since the August 2 race, but I suspect that amount of distance provided enough foundation for Thursday's sprint.
- RT is a closer in a field with enough pace to chase; 10-1 is well worth the gamble.
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