Gunning for Scott's Dad in Del Mar November Contest

Strictly in jest, the bull's eye this November is squarely on fellow New Jersey resident and NHC XVI qualifier Steven Nico, champion of the Del Mar 2014 Online Handicapping Challenge.

Playing under the pseudonym scottsdad, Nico was the champion of this summer's free online NHC qualifier offered by Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.  As billhobo, I finished second. 

Courtesy: prodygal.com

I assure you that Steven, like me, will not hide from the competition in gunning for a second spot in the 2015 National Handicapping Championship, worth $2.2 million in purses, in Las Vegas, January 23-25.

I had the November Del Mar contest already on my calendar, but Steven reminded me last week that, beginning this Friday and running through November 30, Del Mar will offer another 2 seats to NHC XVI at Treasure Island.

"Bing Crosby Season," as billed by the Club in press releases, is a 15-day race meet that mark's the first autumn racing at Del Mar since the late 1960s.  In short, Del Mar is picking up some of the dates vacated by the 2013 closure of Hollywood Park, and at the same time being very generous to contest horseplayers -- a lesson that other U.S. race tracks can learn.

Why Not Be Greedy?!

Regardless of the industry's reception to Bing Crosby Season, I am most interested as an unofficial ambassador of the contest circuit in spreading the word among fellow handicapping contest players about a great no-cost opportunity to qualify for NHC XVI (and pick up hotel accommodations and a travel stipend) through Del Mar, and even picking up a second NHC seat or some NHC Tour points along the way. 

The Tour a few years back changed the rules to allow NHC Tour members to qualify twice for the annual championship.  Surely qualifying once in my first four years on the circuit was hard enough, but what the heck...I'd sign on for a second seat in Las Vegas in a heartbeat!

For those who have never played Del Mar's online contests, the rules are simple -- accrue the biggest bankroll possible and finish in the Top 2 to qualify for the National Handicapping Championship.  

Players receive a notional $100 per day to make win, place or show bets on a predetermined race each day of the meet.  A player must make mythical wagers of at least $50 on at least 10 of the 15 racing days, and unlike most contest I have played, can hedge bets by playing more than 1 horse in each day's race.

Del Mar posts each day's contest race about 24 hours in advance and provides free past performances for players to analyze each race.

Not a Bad Deal, Right?!

I intend to stick with my strategy of $100 win bets per day, as supported by my tracking of the summer online contest, which ran more than twice as long (36 days) but where playing undervalued horses proved to be the winning strategy.  

The shorter Bing Crosby meet, in my opinion, should not discourage the prospect of some overlooked horses paying outsize prices in each contest race. 

Furthermore, and ultimately this may not be the case, I anticipate a smaller field of contestants for the November contest, since Del Mar may not yet be on everyone's radar in the wake of the Breeders Cup and considering the "newness" of the meeting.  

As of this publication, and within just 3 days of the sign-up deadline, less than 650 players signed on for the Del Mar November Challenge.  

Granted, I suspect there are many procrastinators who will sign up either late Thursday or Friday, but it is hard to imagine that 3,000 fresh players will register in the next 72 or so hours to match the contestant base in this summer's online handicapping contest (~3,750).  

I certainly hope that all readers will consider signing up for the Del Mar 2014 November Challenge, especially my other friends from New Jersey who have yet to qualify or, like me, would not mind playing two tickets (of an estimated 500) next January for a shot at the estimated $1.1 million first prize for winning the National Handicapping Championship. 

Del Mar Defense Begins on Thursday

On the heels of two awful zero-win performances in National Handicapping Championship qualifiers (July 5 Monmouth Park contest and this past Saturday at HorseTourneys.com), my confidence is not the best at about the midway point of the 2015 NHC season.

Sign up by Thursday for
Del Mar's free online contest

Nonetheless, as any horseplayer can attest, fortunes can reverse overnight, and so I begin my co-title defense of the Del Mar Online Handicapping Challenge, which begins this Thursday afternoon (with a race to be determined);  I finished 2nd in 2014 in harrowing fashion, securing my first berth to the NHC.

Before delving into tongue-in-cheek trash talking on my defense, I cannot help but, first, to think at this time of Lucy Nico, whose husband Steven ("scottsdad") took first-place in last year's tournament but tragically passed away a few days after a heart attack on Thanksgiving night and I dearly missed at the NHC in Las Vegas in January.  In that vein, I play this year in Steven's memory and extend heartfelt thoughts and prayers to Lucy and her kids during their healing process.

As there were nearly 4,000 players last season, I sense the secret is out about this tournament, but encourage newcomers to have some fun with this year's Del Mar contest, whether registered as "serious" players or not.

It's free to enter (deadline is Thursday; no sign-ups once the contest begins), and in fact players do not even need to be NHC Tour members to enter, or win.

The top two finishers win entry to the 2016 NHC in Las Vegas and $1,000 hotel and travel stipend.

The contest premise is simple -- pick winners and find prices.  

At least that's my aim again in 2015.

Del Mar selects one race per day during its 40-day meeting, which starts this Thursday and ends on Monday, September 7.

Each contest race is usually posted by 5 p.m. ET the day prior, and Del Mar provides free past performances as well.

I recommend registering, separately, for an account on CalRacing.com (free, as well), which offers access to live video and race replays; it's a great service and one whose model I wish all states would follow in order to grow the sport.  Cal Racing's mobile site works well, too.

Del Mar Online Handicapping Challenge mandates that contestants play their full $100 mythical (no real money changes hands) bankroll in at least 20 of the 40 contest races to qualify.  One can bet less than $100, but that would not count as one of your 20 qualifying wagers.

Unlike other contests in the win-place-show format, Del Mar allows players to bet more than one horse, meaning you could go $10 to win across the board in a 10-horse field if you wanted.  I would not advise it, but it's allowed.

As noted in last September's analysis of the Del Mar contest, I plan to again identify horses within a range of 5-to-1 and 15-to-1 (morning line), and will probably invest $100 to win each day.

Del Mar bettors LOVE to over-bet favorites, meaning the prospects are good for getting an "overlay" (final odds above the morning line) on an 8-1 horse you like as real-money wagerers push the 3-to-1 favorite in a deep field down to 4-to-5 at post-time.  Trust me, it happens.

Last year, I generally picked one horse per day and played $50 win-$50 place, which produced positive returns but not as much had I put my full $100 to win.  I'll likely go $100 win exclusively in 2015; it's fake money (but real stakes) after all.

If you've never played, give it a try.

I use this contest primarily to stay sharp and cross my figures for good fortune again.

It's a great daily exercise (Thursday through Sunday, at least) and a perfect opportunity for less-frequent players to spend some time analyzing a single race.

Leave a comment if you have any questions, and good luck!

I leave with some quick thoughts and comments:

• Use the free past performances and Cal Racing video to your advantage; as a commuter to NYC at times, I'd print the free PP's and use mobile video to study on the bus to find a long-shot that made some sense.
• Get your selections in by the contest site's published post time; you'll get shut out if the site shows 6:30 p.m. ET and the actual post (because of delays earlier in the card) is, say, 6:45 p.m.
• Avoid prohibitive favorites:  Not worth the risk (-$100) of, say, a $40 win, $30 place and $30 show wager on a horse that's 9-to-5 and will only produce minimal returns; rather, simply pass on that day's race if the field's short or you're that convinced the favorite will win (in which case I would argue you bet the full $100 on that horse). 
• Do NOT get discouraged if you go 0-for-4 and are -$400 at the end of week 1.  Even if a few players hit a 30-to-1 bomber (the cap on contest win payouts) and are at +$3,000 at week's end and you're tied in 3,000th-place, remember there is a LOT of contest remaining.  
• NHC Tour members...play seriously, as there are FAR more Tour points to be had this year, with the Tour shifting the points allocation from Top 30 to top 10 percentile.  Assuming the contest draws 3,750 players again, finishing 100th, for example, would yield more than 2,000 Tour points, by the Tour's calculator, unlike 2014 (zero). 
• The Del Mar Futurity is usually the final contest race.  Last year, American Pharoah romped at 3-to-1 to victory, and in 2013 California Chrome ran somewhat sluggish (I picked him in the Del Mar contest that year to no avail). 
• Be courteous, and do NOT hassle the people running the contest.  Remember, it's free, so if the leaderboard is not up to date 2 minutes after the race results are posted, do not fire off a bunch of email asking when the leaderboard will be updated.  
• Embrace the challenge and have fun.  I never imagined finishing in the Top 2 last year.  It was gut-wrenching for me toward the end, but the ride was fun as hell.  

NHC Qualifying Season Winding Down, But Del Mar's Fall Freebie Worth A Try

NHC Tour players like myself still looking to qualify for the $2.5 million National Handicapping Championship or simply pick up NHC Tour points are running out of opportunities to make it to Las Vegas in January 2016, but there's a great no-cost online tournament about to set sail this Thursday.

In conjunction with the 2015 Bing Crosby Meet at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club from October 29 through November 29, the track is offering 2 slots to the 2016 NHC through an online handicapping tournament that's akin to its summer tournament that attracted nearly 5,000 players.

Whereas most of the NHC Tour world is focused on this weekend's Breeders Cup Championship, players need to remember to sign up for the Del Mar fall contest by Thursday in order to be eligible for the top prizes in addition to NHC Tour points that will be awarded.  No late sign-ups.

Only 1,260 players have registered to this point, but I anticipate the final number of entrants will at least approach 2014's of nearly 3,500 players.  Hey, for me, the fewer the merrier in my bid to qualify through a Del Mar online contest for a second-straight season. 

In my view, Del Mar is providing a unique and great service for Tour and non-Tour players alike in offering two expenses-paid trips to the 2016 NHC in Vegas.

The contest format is unique, too, in that players are required to make at least 10 (of 22 possible) mythical bets of $100 each on 20 races (1 per day) run at Del Mar and 2 at this weekend's Breeders Cup (the Distaff on Friday and the Classic on Saturday). 

Win, place and show (or any combination thereof) are the only "wagers" offered, and there are no restrictions on the number of horse per race that can be "bet."  

For instance, if you are torn between American Pharoah and Beholder but are intrigued by 30-to-1 longshot Effinex in the Classic, you can split your $100 bankroll on Saturday between the three in any combination of win-place-show. 

A running bankroll is kept throughout the Del Mar season and updated daily.  

In short, you start at zero dollars and rise or fall in the standings based on your daily outcome.  If you hit a $10 winner (4-to-1 odds) on Day 1 on a $100 win bet you'd be at +$400 ($500 minus $100); lose your first bet and you start Day 2 at -$100.  Go 0-for-22 and finish tied for last at -$2,200. 

There is no exacta, trifecta, superfecta or any other kinds of "exotics" wagering; the emphasis, really, is to pick winners.  From past experience, I find that you'll need at least a handful of long-shots to have a shot at winning, so roll those dice. 

For more information or to register, visit the contest website or contact contest coordinator Chris Bahr at chris@dmtc.com.  Good luck to everyone that enters!

Vegas Here I Come!

The reality is starting to sink in that I am one of 500 qualifiers for the 2015 National Handicapping Championship (NHC XVI) from January 23-25 at Treasure Island in Las Vegas.

Final details from the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club officials are yet to come, but I received congratulatory email from NHC Tour officials signaling that my second-place finish (under the nickname "billhobo") in the 2014 Del Mar Online Handicapping Challenge puts me in Vegas.  

In my fourth year on the Tour as predominantly a part-time weekend player, I face the prospect of competing against the best in the U.S. (and Canada) for a projected $1.8 million purse. 

NJ Horseplayer earns first-ever
berth to National Handicapping
Championship

Of course the blind squirrel finds a nut every so often, but I figured I would qualify at some point; just never through a 3,752-player free online tournament where, especially in the latter stages, people were gunning for Del Mar's top prize of NHC berths to the top two finishers. 

Reflecting over the last week about my success in the Del Mar contest, I kept coming back to the value of my homework ("Seven Bullets Remaining," August 27) ahead of the final week.

Perched in 8th-place going into the final six races of the contest, my goal was simply to get into the Top 2 and get to Vegas.  

I contemplated strategies and consulted with some close contest handicapper friends before deciding that it was best to continue to ID playable long-shots and solely play (mythical) $100-win wagers, breaking from my earlier hedge of $50 to win and $50 to place.

The latter strategy got me into the top 10, but I realized that one well-placed $100 win wager could pay dividends. 

After starting the final contest week 0-for-3 and watching eventual contest champion "scottsdad" score three consecutive $100 win wagers to vault all the way up from 17th to 3rd (six spots ahead of me and, yes, I was tracking the Top 20 every day to gauge possible patterns), the two of us secured our NHC berths with $100 to win on 29-to-1 Meinertzhageni in Race 8 on Saturday, August 30.

The $2,940 of notional profit put scottsdad about $800 ahead of me in the standings and yours truly $1,225 ahead of the third-place finisher with three races remaining in the contest.

Admittedly, I was so gassed by handicapping Saturday's big score that I sat out Sunday's card, but returned with two unsuccessful (strictly defensive...more on that later) $100 win wagers on Monday and Wednesday.

A 15-to-1 horse named Calculator made me sweat it out a bit in the Del Mar Futurity (the final contest race on Wednesday, September 3), but ultimately second-choice American Pharaoh won going away to guarantee my second-place contest finish.

Key to Success: Long-Shots

Scoring four enormous long-shots (24-to-1, 29-to-1 twice and 39-to-1) and, overall, "in the money" finishes on 6 of 8 days where the winning horse went off at double-digit odds set the tone.  

I did not exclusively play ridiculous bombs either, picking up earnings on four horses sent off between 4-to-1 and 10-to-1.  

I predominantly focused on potential overlays (horses sent off at odds above their morning lines), including Meinertzhageni, listed at 8-to-1 in the past performances.  Never did I imagine getting $60 per $2 of win bet on such a logical upset prospect.  It happened, however, and the rest is history.

In the end, I finished in the money on 8 of 34 plays (24%), with wins in 5 of those (15%). 

Top 3 wagering choices won at least half of all 36 contest races, a pretty high strike rate.

Otherwise, in tracking the leaderboard over the last week, I surmised that most contest players toward the top gravitated to long-shots as well, considering that no more than one or two players on any day scored with $100 win wagers on horses at much shorter odds.  This reinforced my confidence in pursuing a $100-win strategy exclusively.

Final Thoughts

The final race (the aforementioned Del Mar Futurity) proved painstaking for me and provides potential fodder for another column down the road about "playing defense" in handicapping contests.

Each contest is unique, and therefore a one-size-fits-all strategy for handling a late contest leader probably would not suffice.

However, I learned a valuable lesson about protecting leads in the Del Mar online contest.

Recognizing that the player in third would need to pick an 11-to-1 winner or higher (combined with a "billhobo" $100 loss) to surpass me in the standings, I was excited that the contest organizers selected the Futurity as the final race.

The morning line maker installed only 1 horse above 15-to-1, and so I figured that maybe one more would go off at double-digit odds and I could divide my bankroll $50-$50 between two horses to protect second-place.  

Rather than actually handicapping the race to identify a winner as I had done throughout the contest, I crossed out all horses 5-to-1 in the program and below, and ultimately was left with 4 horses from which to choose as defensive plays.

Of course the best laid plans never seem to work out, as bettors hammered one horse (Skyway) and left not 2, but 4, others dead on the tote board, and I could not cover all 4 (sent off at odds of 14-to-1 or higher) to protect my lead.

A strong mid-pack run by Calculator (15-to-1, but whom I insufficiently covered with a $20 win selection) appeared threatening turning into the homestretch, but in the end the outcome did not change.

Still, I was left with some food for thought down the road if ever I am in a position of having a target on my back. 

Optimistically, I would relish being that target again, but at the 2015 National Handicapping Championship next time around.

***

Daily Results for 2014 Del Mar Online Handicapping Contest
(*=post-time favorite, **=second-choice, ***=third-choice)
(yellow=picked winner; grey=picked runner-up)

Date	Profit/Loss	Race	Winner	Win	Place	Bankroll
7/17/2014	($100.00)	8	3-1*	$7.80		($100.00)
7/18/2014	($100.00)	6	4-1**	$9.40		($200.00)
7/19/2014	$330.00	9	10-1	$22.80	$13.20	$130.00
7/20/2014	$1,555.00	9	24-1	$50.40	$15.80	$1,685.00
7/23/2014	($100.00)	8	21-1	$43.60		$1,585.00
7/24/2014	($100.00)	8	8-1	$18.00		$1,485.00
7/25/2014	($100.00)	7	8-1	$17.60		$1,385.00
7/26/2014	($100.00)	8	3-1**	$8.00		$1,285.00
7/27/2014	$135.00	6	4-1**	$10.80	$9.40	$1,420.00
7/30/2014	($100.00)	5	1-1*	$3.80		$1,320.00
7/31/2014	DNP	7	2/5*	$2.80		$1,320.00
8/1/2014	($100.00)	7	7/2	$9.20		$1,220.00
8/2/2014	($100.00)	6	2-1**	$6.00		$1,120.00
8/3/2014	($100.00)	7	4-1**	$10.20		$1,020.00
8/6/2014	$790.00	6	8-1	$15.80		$1,810.00
8/7/2014	($100.00)	7	2-1**	$6.20		$1,710.00
8/8/2014	($100.00)	4	11-1	$24.80		$1,610.00
8/9/2014	($100.00)	7	11-1	$23.40		$1,510.00
8/10/2014	($100.00)	6	5-1***	$11.80		$1,410.00
8/13/2014	$2,350.00	6	39-1	$72.00		$3,760.00
8/14/2014	($100.00)	7	3-1**	$8.40		$3,660.00
8/15/2014	($100.00)	6	1-1*	$4.00		$3,560.00
8/16/2014	$170.00	8	9-1	$20.20	$10.80	$3,730.00
8/17/2014	($100.00)	8	3-1*	$7.80		$3,630.00
8/20/2014	($100.00)	7	5-2*	$6.80		$3,530.00
8/21/2014	($100.00)	7	6-1	$14.40		$3,430.00
8/22/2014	$1,905.00	6	29-1	$59.20		$5,335.00
8/23/2014	($100.00)	8	3-2*	$5.20		$5,235.00
8/24/2014	($100.00)	10	1-1*	$4.40		$5,135.00
8/27/2014	($100.00)	8	5-1	$12.40		$5,035.00
8/28/2014	($100.00)	7	9-2	$11.40		$4,935.00
8/29/2014	($100.00)	5	7-2**	$9.80		$4,835.00
8/30/2014	$2,940.00	8	29-1	$60.80		$7,775.00
8/31/2014	DNP	6	6-5*	$4.60		$7,775.00
9/1/2014	($100.00)	9	9-2	$11.20		$7,675.00
9/3/2014	($100.00)	8	3-1**	$8.40		$7,575.00

A Potential Mother Lode of a Contest

(Edited May 10 to amend some egregious flaws in my interpretation of NHC points awards and fresh guidance about Sunday's tournament being in the "pick-and-pray" format)

There's no way in hell I'd get to play live in any handicapping contest this Sunday (ugh, Mother's Day), but as an NHC Tour player and writer, I registered for an intriguing new handicapping contest series offered by HorseTourneys.com.

HorseTourneys.com is running a 3-contest feeder series that will award two berths to the Del Mar Handicapping Challenge (DMHC) on Saturday, July 27 and Sunday, July 28, where five (5) spots will be awarded to the National Handicapping Championship (NHC XV) next January in Las Vegas.

The entry fee to HorseTourneys.com's Del Mar feeder is only $29.  The format will be "pick and pray" (i.e. enter selections for the full contest card before post time of the first contest race).

Not the kind of Mother Lode
NJ Horseplayer has in mind...
but one worth watching
(cover your ears)

Two more feeders are scheduled -- Saturday, May 18 (Preakness Day) and Sunday, May 26.

Feeders are capped at 200 players and 1 entry per player, with the top two finishers from each feeder squaring off in a 6-player championship on Sunday, June 2, for two berths to Del Mar and the others receiving $250-$500 of site credit.

The NHC Tour Point Dynamic

As an NHC Tour player with at least some leaderboard points (989 from the Monmouth Park SSC Invitational, good for a temporary spot among the Top 200), I have begun to ponder the need to accumulate more points in hopes of cracking the Top 150 -- good enough for a back door to NHC XV (assuming I do not win an NHC qualifier outright).

The way I see it, HorseTourneys is offering not only unique access to the NHC through the Del Mar Handicapping Challenge, but also potential entry to an elite live-money, on-track tournament limited to 60 contestants, where the buy-in is $6,000 and players like me are priced out of the market.

Here's the Del Mar prize structure (all with an NHC berth and $700 travel stipend):

• 1st place -- NHC, paid $10,000 Breeders Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) buy-in, $25,000 cash
• 2nd -- NHC, $2,500 toward BCBC, $10,000 cash
• 3rd -- NHC, $2,500 toward BCBC, $5,000 cash
• 4th -- NHC, $2,500 toward BCBC, $3,000 cash
• 5th -- NHC, $2,500 toward BCBC, $2,000 cash

NHC berths alone are worth their weight in gold, but the other rewards are clearly enticing as well.

From an NHC Tour points perspective, the two players who come out of HorseTourneys.com's Del Mar feeder series and finish in the top 10% of the DMHC would come away with at least 1,000 Tour points (roughly 3,800 for first, down to 1,250 for sixth for an "on-site" tourney with buy-ins).

Not bad for $29!

Consistent with the format for the 6-player HorseTourneys.com final on Sunday, June 2, I'm guessing the Mother's Day feeder will consist of 10 mandatory races, with notional $2 win-place wagering and a 22-to-1 cap on win and 10-to-1 cap on place.

HorseTourneys.com has rolled out a "challenge wagering" format for some contests, where players make selections on, say, 8 of 15 possible races, but the Mother's Day feeder will feature the "pick-and-pray" format, giving those of us who can, say, handicap the card on Saturday but cannot play on Sunday an opportunity to participate.

Credit once again to HorseTourneys.com tournament director McKay Smith for adding an interesting new wrinkle to the handicapping contest circuit and creating a unique opportunity for NHC Tour players, namely those in states with fewer on-track tournaments.  Anyone with questions should contact support@horsetourneys.com.

Already 40 of 200 spots for Sunday have been claimed, and I anticipate a sellout at the $29 price point.

Happy Mother's Day!

I would say "see you online" this Sunday, but chance are I'll (like many other NHC Tour players with the non-horseplayer wives and moms) be catering to my lovely wife and mother-in-law this Mother's Day, as they surely deserve it.

Meanwhile, my mom's en route to Boston to work the 7th Annual Alstrom Syndrome International Family & Medical Conference, so she gets an rain check.

But, as a casual horseplayer herself, I'm sure she'll be amenable to a long-distance Mother's Day blessing...and an IOU on a non-contest day.

Del Mar Online Contest Kicks Off

The elite portion of the 2012 thoroughbred season kicks off with the start of the Del Mar meeting this afternoon, then Saratoga's opening card on Friday.

For the handicapping contest player, with that comes a bevy of contest opportunities with National Handicapping Championship-based prizes on the line, albeit at long odds.  I'll be involved in two this afternoon: the Del Mar Online Handicapping Contest and a HorseTourneys.com pre-qualifier.

Summer Racing in the Air!

The cheapskate in me loves the Del Mar contest, with a free entry and NHC seats awarded the top two finishers through the end of the meet.

In short, players are given up to a $100 daily bankroll on which to place any combination (at any increment) of win, place and show wagers, in the hopes of accruing the biggest bankroll by contest's end.

Del Mar designates a race each day, and players simply go to the online (notional) wagering tool to enter picks.  This afternoon, Race 9 -- the Oceanside Stakes -- is in play (at this point, NJ Horseplayer is leaning toward $50W/$50P on Stoney Fleece at 4-to-1 odds). 

At last check, there were some 3,500 players entered in the contest...and so some long odds of victory.

Meanwhile, I will be playing in the NHC "preliminary feeder" contest on the Ellis Park-affiliated HorseTourneys.com.  I opted for the running contest over the so-called "Pick and Pray" format where players are required to submit all 10 contest-race picks before first post (impossible for me to handicap, considering work obligations).  Plus, the oppressive East Coast heat this afternoon is conducive to blasting the AC and some four hours of coach-potato tournament play.  The top 10% of finishers win a $195 credit to use for one of HorseTourneys.com's NHC qualifying tournaments or to spend elsewhere on other HT games, which I am doing this afternoon after having banked a $195 credit a few weeks ago.

Anyway, best of luck with your plays on this afternoon's opening Del Mar card!

Tripping with Stormberg

The adage about never being too old to learn is completely valid.

I spent a good part of an overcast Saturday at Monmouth Park volunteering for my third time this meet as "racing ambassador," with a grassroots goal of cultivating and educating new or inexperienced fans one at a time about thoroughbred racing.

In educating these fans to the best of my ability, however, I find myself learning a lot as well, proving extremely beneficial as a part-time handicapper ultimately attempting to qualify for the National Handicapping Championship.

Jockeys and trainers have come into focus of late, since as an ambassador I get to take patrons into the paddock to watch trainers saddle their horses and can eavesdrop a little -- a really great experience that yields valuable insight as a handicapper.

Saturday afternoon, I was introduced to top local trainer Kelly Breen in the paddock prior to race 6 and listened to his pre-race instructions to jockey Victor Santiago aboard second-time starter Jackie O' Mine.

Even in a fourth-place finish of nine starters, the jockey followed his trainer's instructions to a tee, with Jackie O' Mine -- an inexperienced horse with more of a two-turn pedigree and not the best early speed -- urged from the gate in a 5-furlong sprint in the slop (to see how she would respond) and giving the connections some valuable information on the horse moving forward.

A race prior, Santiago made a race-winning move aboard 9-to-1 Karobushka in a 6-furlong claimer, navigating his horse through a wide opening along the rail left by front-runner Iron Dale Al, who floated wide into the homestretch and lost valuable ground.

I already have immense respect for jockeys, but after just a small two-race sample I came away with tremendous respect for Santiago, who has a 9% lifetime win percentage, according to Equibase, and in 2014 had a mere 8 wins in 140 mounts heading into today.

The jockey theme is one that leads me to a horse named Stormberg in Race 7 today at Del Mar ($62,500 optional claimer at 1 mile on the synthetic track) -- my selection of the day in the Del Mar 2014 Online Handicapping Challenge.

Stormberg is 15-to-1 on the morning line, but the change in trainer and jockey is what proves intriguing off the horse's last three efforts on the 6 1/2-furlong downhill course at Santa Anita.

If you do not have an online wagering account, sign up for free at www.calracing.com (free replays at all California tracks) and watch the last three race replays for Stormberg. 

The horse, in my opinion, got three horrible trips with jockey Tyler Baze and trained by high-percentage California trainer Jeff Bonde.

Granted, based on breaks in the horse's past performances, it looks like the 6-year-old Stormberg has had health issues, racing only 13 times and netting $108,615 of lifetime winnings -- a bad return on the $450,000 purchase out of the 2009 Keeneland September sale.  The horse ran only one race in 2013 (Gulfstream in March) for trainer Michelle Nevin before shipping out west to the Bonde stable.

Stormberg made his 2014 debut on April 20 and finished an extremely game third of 10 horses off a 13-month layoff.  Next out, on May 24, Stormberg ran very well but lacked room, checking at one point and re-rallying to finish third.  On June 20, under the same conditions ($62,500 optional claimer on the downhill turf), Stormberg again was run into trouble, steadying hard in the stretch to finish sixth of seven behind winner Rangi, who finished second next out in the $90,000 Wicker Stakes.

On paper, Stormberg's performances appear less than stellar, which along with the horse's first try on synthetic surface in nearly three years and stretch-out to a mile may help to explain the 15-to-1 morning line.

Beneath the surface, however, the change in trainer to Robertino Diodoro and rider Fernando Perez are bullish angles, in my opinion, and the horse kept some pretty good company in his recent races.

This jockey-trainer combination has 4 wins in 19 tries over the last 60 days, and Perez has proven a formidable and underrated rider at the Del Mar meeting.

Horses coming off downhill turf sprints at Santa Anita seem to have played somewhat well on stretch-outs, from the Del Mar races that I have seen.

In addition, the scratch of rail horse and 3-to-1 morning-line favorite Secretsatmidnight inspires confidence that Stormberg can get to the lead from an outside post without much difficulty.  The horses to either side of Stormberg show more of a stalking tactic, in my view, freeing Perez to get Stormberg to the lead into the first turn.

With front-end speed holding up pretty well at Del Mar, I am banking on Stormberg benefiting from the stretch-out from a three straight sprints to two turns -- an angle where Diodoro wins 19%-22% of the time and is in the money nearly 50%.  Diodoro is also winning 25% of the time on new horses to his barn.

We'll know for certain a little after 8 p.m. ET, but I'm going a notional $50 win-place on #9, Stormberg, as my selection in the Del Mar online contest, which would go a long way in improving my 210th-place standing of 3,500-plus players.

It'll be interesting to know whether or not a new jockey and trainer make the difference for a horse with apparent talent but has simply ran into a lot of trouble of late.

---

For additional reading on jockey angles, take a look at this valuable piece from Joe Kristufek for America's Best Racing.

From Out Of The Clouds

To quote Rambo, "nothing is over."

So I'm not being hunted down in a small mining town.

Rather, I am relaxing on a deck after a 5-mile run and sipping coffee while writing to you a few hundred yards from the Atlantic Ocean on Long Beach Island on a gorgeous Jersey Shore midweek morning.

This morning, squarely in 3,793rd place in the Del Mar 2015 Online Handicapping Challenge and despite my state of relaxation (and perhaps delusion), I refuse to believe I am out of the contest.

More contest players need to take this approach.

Play (and handicap) to the end, I say, rather than losing complete interest or tossing darts at horses with little chance of winning.

NJ Horseplayer agrees; "You just
don't turn it off."

Find a playable long-shot and take an educated risk.

11 Races To Go

There is plenty of time to make up ground; maybe not to repeat as one of two champions in 2014's tournament for spots in the National Handicapping Championship, but perhaps to come away with a Top 200 finish and secure some points in the NHC Tour standings.  

Right now, for example, 200th-place in the Del Mar contest only has an $1,100 bankroll.

According to the NHC Tour points calculator, 200th is worth nearly 2,000 NHC Tour points; not a bad haul considering the field of nearly 5,000 players.

Granted, I am $810 in the minus, but in this contest format, where one good longshot gets me back to the plus side and the cap on winners is 30-to-1, a $1,900 deficit (to 200th) is not insurmountable.

Now, Wednesday's contest race is not entirely conducive to a cap horse.

The contest organizers picked as today's contest race the $80,000 Brubaker Stakes at a mile on dirt and featuring only 7 horses (sans potential scratches and most horses here better on the turf).

Contrary to 2014's wide open contest races, this year's contest has featured thinner fields, but handicappers need to play the race(s) in front of them, and so I will follow the flock.

So far in the hole, I cannot sit out the race, but my goal is to end this week on the plus side of the ledger and surge to a positive bankroll, perhaps giving me a shot in the contests final six races over next week, culminating in what I am guessing will be the Del Mar Futurity on Labor Day (Sept. 7).

Including today's mythical $100 wager, I can easily make up $810 this week; or that's my goal anyway in playing this contest through the end.

Safety Belt Makes Sense

The Brubaker is not a great race.

The 2-to-1 favorite, Motown Man, is clearly the most accomplished dirt horse in the field.

On dirt, Motown Man boasts 4 wins and 5 in-the-money finishes in 13 lifetime starts and has amassed $276k of lifetime winnings on the surface for trainer Ted West.  The horse has a Cal-bred stakes win to his credit at today's one-mile distance.

There are come chinks in the armor, however, as I see it, in that more of the horse's wins are at the optional claiming and allowance ranks, and in my view he benefitted from a dream trip in his last win at Del Mar on July 31.  Otherwise, this is no 2-to-1 world-beater.

Second-choice Big Cazanova is 5-to-2 and a need-the-lead type who is the only frontrunner in the field, in my view, but is 1-for-15 lifetime in dirt starts and will be overbet as the pacesetter and with a 3-for-3 record at Del Mar (albeit all on when the track had a synthetic surface).

And do not let the perceived class plunge for Big Cazanova fool you; save for a graded stakes win on the horse's favorite surface (synthetic), the horse has been largely overmatched.

Co-third choice (4-to-1) Smooth Roller is a 4-year-old Hard Spun gelding making only his third career lifetime start, but 2-for-2 lifetime (both on dirt) and I anticipate will take money.

For long-shot players, this leaves few options among the other four, who are a combined 0-for-10 in races on the dirt, but for my money there is appeal in the rail horse, Safety Belt.

The 12-to-1 morning line in my view discredits a 6-year-old who at the end of his 2014 campaign nearly ran down multiple stakes winner Regally Ready in the $75,000 Big Bear Stakes at Santa Anita at a whopping 50-to-1.  Please excuse the grainy video, but in that replay note the late kick by Safety Belt in the stretch, and consider the horse had a very strong gallop-out.

In making his first start of 2015 for 0-for-31 (2015) trainer Ron McAnally, I suspect that bettors will be chilly on Safety Belt, an Argentine whose two wins in 2014 were on turf against optional claimers.

Plus, the horse's seven works since June 18 have all been on turf, signalling that this horse will be perceived as a field "filler" in what on paper looks to be a race to be had by one of the three top choices.

As a longshot player, I relish angles such as this where, in a short field, there's a chance of a horse being set off as the longest shot, but for no great reason.

There's enough in the Big Bear to make the case for Safety Belt, and so I am playing him ($100 to win) in today's Del Mar contest race and hoping to upset the applecart early this week en route to a return to a positive bankroll by week's end.

Exemplifying with my comments to Josh Kamis with The Tournament Edge, here we have what I perceive to be a vulnerable favorite and a long-shot (Safety Belt) with three in-the-money finishes in five lifetime dirt starts, and who showed some late foot against a dirt stakes field last fall.

All that jockey Felipe Valdez needs to do with this horse fresh off the bench, in my opinion, is save ground and sit just off the front-runners ahead of a late bid in the stretch.

Perhaps a stretch, but one worth taking with less than a dozen races remaining and significant ground to make up in this handicapping contest.

Seven Bullets Remaining

Right now, I'm sitting in 8th place among 3,700-plus players in the 2014 Del Mar Online Handicapping Challenge, or about as close as ever to reaching my goal -- four years in the making at this point.

The top two finishers, regardless of whether they are members of the NHC Tour, will win berths to the 2015 National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas, so my goal over the final seven racing days at Del Mar is to find some way into the Top 2.

The standings have me at a $5,135 bankroll (all players started at break-even and were granted a notional $100 bankroll for each predetermined race).  The leader is at $5,930, and second is $5,716.

Photo courtesy of
http://va.milesplit.com

If nothing else, I am in pretty good shape to get nearly 3,000 NHC Tour points assuming I finish in the Top 30 (30th has a $3,645 bankroll at present) and long-shots that I do not pick do not dominate the rest of the contest's race results.

Otherwise, I come away with absolutely nothing, which would be crushing.

In any event, I wanted to analyze the outcomes of the contest races thus far as a potential guide to how to play the remaining seven races, beginning with Wednesday's Generous Portion Stakes -- Race 8, going off at 8:35 p.m. ET.  I will not publish a pick, since I have done poorly the 2-3 times I justified my pick on particular days.  Bad karma.

There are some pretty interesting data points through 29 contest days.

Long-Shots A Must

I can safely credit my 8th-place ranking at present to identifying and hitting the three longest shots in the contest: 24-to-1, 29-to-1 and 40-1 (the latter capped at 35-to-1 by contest rules).

Identifying playable long-shots is the premise of my blog in the first place, and the only second-guessing comes in having played $50 win-place wagers instead of $100 win wagers.

Assuming I had played $100 straight win wagers per day, and subtracting three $50 place wagers where I cashed, I would now have a $5,900 bankroll, which is good for second place and one of the two NHC spots in Vegas.

However, with plenty of contest action remaining, a lot can clearly change.

Still, crunching the numbers at least gives me the impetus to ponder an alternate final-week strategy, if necessary.

Better "In" Than "Out" Of The Money, But Too Early For Capital Preservation

Hitting the board in 7 of 28 contest plays equates to being "in the money" 25% of the time, which based on handicappers' assessments of trainers and jockeys is a nice number.

Of those, I have 4 winners and 3 runners-up, so if I can find another horse or two over the last seven contest days, I should improve my chances of catching the leaders or least securing Top 30.

Friend and contest colleague Stephen Fitzpatrick shared a thought with me this past weekend that "show" wagers can be a useful tool for capital preservation.

I have blogged on that concept in the past (see above link) and would typically give it much greater weight, but from my analysis, the show payouts at Del Mar are extremely paltry.  Ann of the Dance, my 29-to-1 winner this past Friday night, for instance, paid a measly $6 or so to show -- not much reward for identifying the longest shot on the board as the winner.

Perhaps it makes sense to use show wagers on more of the "sure thing" horses in the final contest day or two, but I am not sold that an incremental $20-$25 of winnings at this point is worth the effort.  At the same time, in the chalky Pacific Classic on Sunday, only 2-3 of the Top 30 players either sat on the sidelines or placed winning contest wagers, suggesting most are still playing "full bore."

Were I way ahead of the field, then maybe show bets would make sense, but I have to make up ground.

Slim Pickings On Contest Long-Shots

The favorite has won 8 of the 29 Del Mar contest races thus far, with only two above 3-to-2 odds.

The second and third betting choices boast another 8 wins, meaning the chalkiest horses have won 55% of the contest races, most of which have had at least 8 runners and 12-13 in a few instances.

On the days where I failed to find the correct long-shot, only three went off at double-digit odds: 22-to-1, and 11-to-1 (twice).  So, in sum, I scored on double-digit odds horses in 6 of 9 such instances.

Assuming Del Mar offers deep fields over the final week, I am speculating that it will take at least another logical long-shot for me to land in the Top 2 regardless, since players lower in the standings will no doubt go the same route.

Conclusion

Outside of finishing one spot away from an NHC berth, the worst-case scenario for me with seven contest races to go is seven losses at $100 apiece decreasing my bankroll to $4,435 (good for 14th-place and some Tour points, based on today's leaderboard values) and falling outside the Top 30.

It is entirely possible for players further down the standings to hit 3-4 $100 win bombs this week and throw a monkey wrench into my equation, but over the first six weeks of this contest, a bomb has hit about once per week on average.

The law of averages suggests a slim chance of multiple 35-1 cap winners and, say, 100 players moving up the standings by hitting three such bombers.

That being said, I will likely continue to play long-shots, although I may lean toward $100 straight win plays instead of the $50-$50 win-place split I have employed thus far.

Historical data from this summer's Del Mar contest would validate that approach, considering as we speak I would be in second, rather than eighth, had I gone "all in" at $100 to win each race.

In any event, Sunday's analysis alone (where all but 2-3 of the Top 30 did not wager) would suggest that making no more wagers and sitting on $5,135 is not a winning formula.  Getting in through "the back door" is unlikely, as I see it.

Clearly the players above me in the standings are great handicappers, probably slanting toward the same long-shot logic that so many contest players employ in most handicapping contests.

In my opinion, it all comes down to being able to pick 1-2 winners at good prices to make a dent.

The ride has been fun thus far, but approaching the finish line I need to rely on smart handicapping to find a few horses to ride to Las Vegas next January.

Maybe in the last day or two I could consider conservatism, but it's too early to go that route.

I'd be curious to know, how would you play it?

Remembering Steven Nico

The last email correspondence I received from Steven Nico was on November 14.

Steven Nico, 53, of Long Valley
Fellow New Jersey Horseplayer

"Another 2nd-place finisher today. Every day so far...incredible."

Ah, spoken like a true horseplayer.

You see, Steven -- under the pseudonym "scottsdad" -- was the Champion of this summer's Del Mar Online Handicapping Challenge. 

As his runner-up, I can attest that Steven's victory was no easy feat; and based upon our futility in Del Mar's November tournament (which Steven referenced above; the first 4 horses he picked to win all finished 2nd), it took mettle to beat out thousands of generally anonymous, but highly skilled players for one of two coveted prizes.    

See, the two of us -- both New Jersey guys -- captured our first-ever berths to the National Handicapping Championship, the Holy Grail for contest horseplayers, and exchanged emails in the weeks after taking down a virtual tournament, ironically, hosted 3,000 miles away. 

Steven was the first to make contact after finding my email, flatteringly, through this blog.

Our conversations thereafter were light and bordered on giddy, ranging from flight plans to handicapping to jokes about whether the travel stipends would leave room enough on Del Mar's dime for us to enjoy a fine steak dinner out in Las Vegas (home to the NHC), or merely a cup of coffee. 

Either way, we'd finally get to hang out and revel in our success through Del Mar.

Conflicting work schedules, family matters and personal commitments and some 50-60 miles of distance got in the way of a face-to-face meal or beverage here in New Jersey.  

At the least, however, we were excited that we'd be in Vegas from Jan. 22-26, each getting a 1-in-500 shot at winning $1 million in a thoroughbred handicapping championship against real professionals. 

In a cruel twist, a message with the subject "please read" arrived in my inbox late Wednesday.

I received an email from Steven's wife, Lucy, that her husband passed away on Tuesday after suffering a heart attack on Thanksgiving.

Steven Nico was 53.

The kinship I felt with this man, whom I had never met but shared a unique bond on account of something that may seem child's play to some but is serious business to others, helps to explain the heavy heart with which I share my short brushes with Steven. 

Although I had my obvious suspicions about what "scottsdad" represented, from the obituary that Lucy shared it's abundantly clear that Steven's horseplayer pseudonym represented rich commitment as a husband and father to four children (Ilissa, Michael, Joseph and, yes, Scott).  

I knew from our correspondence that Steven worked nights, but much as we do with many acquaintances in life sometimes we neglect the details.  

According to a story on Long Valley Patch, Steven worked the night shift in order to care for his sons during daytime hours.  Anyone who has worked nights (myself included) can attest that it's no easy task.

By this account, Steven's caring extended beyond his own kids and had to be part of the formula, I would suspect, for his job was as a Behavioral Supervisor at the Daytop of New Jersey in Mendham, a residential treatment center for teens in need of "comprehensive substance abuse treatment and education programs"

Seeing that kind of resume is a fresh reminder that I, along with others on the handicapping contest circuit, encountered a true gentleman who gave nothing but a first-place effort in life.  

Please join me in keeping Steven and his family in your thoughts and prayers, and consider a small donation through this fundraiser started by his colleagues.

Bing Crosby Contest Starts Today

It's last-minute notice, but if you're interested in a free shot at a seat to the 2017 National Handicapping Championship (NHC), entering Del Mar's online handicapping challenge by this afternoon could be your ticket.

Del Mar in San Diego, CA, kicks off its "Bing Crosby" meet this afternoon.  The season, and handicapping contest, run through December 4, and again they're offering players a free, online tournament for two berths to the NHC.

Here's where you sign up: https://www.dmtc.com/contest/31.

As there's no cost to play I can't complain, but the format has been changed this year to one that I'm admittedly not crazy about.

Consistent with years past, players get a mythical $100 bankroll per day on which to place bets on a pre-selected race each racing day. In years past the wagers were limited to win, place and/or show, and payouts were capped at a robust 30-to-1.

This year, Del Mar has broadened the "wagering" card to exactas and trifectas and removed the cap.

The benefit for players who like to play those wagers is that one major score could be the difference.

The drawback is that it's not really about picking winners anymore, the basis upon which the NHC champion is determined each season. I see the positives and negatives, but for the latter think that someone can just get lucky playing a $100 trifecta with their three favorite numbers and getting lucky.

Regardless, I'm entered to play (user name "billhobo") and have had success in the past, qualifying for the 2015 NHC through Del Mar's summer contest.

It's a lot of fun to play, so make sure to enter; and for NHC Tour players it's a must, since Tour points are awarded to the Top 10% of finishers, consistent with other NHC-focused contests.

Fun, Free Contest for 2 NHC Seats

Summer officially arrived almost a month ago, but for most horseplayers the best part of it begins this week with the start of the boutique race meetings in Saratoga, NY and Del Mar, CA.

I've already got dates on my calendar to hit the Spa -- less than a four-hour drive from the NJ Horseplayer headquarters -- and haven't been to Del Mar yet, though it's a bucket-list item and a place near and dear to my heart.

That's because I qualified for my first National Horseplayers (nee Handicapping) Championship -- "the NHC" -- via this contest four seasons ago.

The 2018 edition kicks off this Wednesday, July 18. Register here.

The premise is simple -- parlay a $100 mythical per day into the one of the two biggest bankrolls by contest's end on Sept. 3 and win a berth to NHC#19 in Las Vegas in February 2019.

Tour membership is not required for the top prizes, so if you've considered trying a handicapping tournament and are not an NHC Tour member, Del Mar provides a great opportunity; if nothing else than to sharpen your skills or to kick the tires.

Sounds easy, right?

It's anything but, considering you'll go against a few thousand folks, from the novice who'll play names, favorite numbers, etc., to the extremely skilled...to the players who'll only play horses at gigantic odds in hopes of winning with a few.

As the second-place finisher in 2014, and as discussed in the post-contest recap linked here, the key of course is to identify winners, but also "value." A few words to the wise:

• Avoid playing horses at odds of less than 5-to-2. The reward for putting $100 (again, mythical dollars) on a runner who's 8-to-5 isn't worth the risk. You can't win this kind of contest playing favorites. You'd have to hit 40-50% of your wagers to have a chance in such a format. If you're in love with a short-priced favorite, just sit out the race that day; you only need to make 20 "wagers" over the contest to qualify for prizes.
• Find the overlays. In my 2014 contest, Meinertzhageni was 8-to-1 on the morning line and completely ignored by the bettors, but a logical horse who'd press the pace and showed speed in the past. The horse went off at 29-to-1 and won easily, vaulting me to the top of the leaderboard. 
• If you have time to wait until close to post time to make your daily play, absolutely monitor the live tote and take into consideration horses that the odds-maker thinks has a shot but is dead on the board.
• $100 Win Wagers ONLY. Again referring to my 2014 link spreadsheet, there's not a lot of value in playing place and show wagers in this format. There are simply too many players, and with no real money on the line, contestants will predominantly go "all in" with win plays. I recommend doing the same, and will take that approach myself this season.
• The only wagers allowed, by the way, are win, place and/or show, and to count as a "qualifying" play, you must use the full $100 daily bankroll.
• Sign up and enjoy! Again, zero cost to enter, and Del Mar provides free past performances for your use to make educated decisions on some great races where the turf meets the surf. 

Cogito, Ergo Win

I think, therefore I win.

OK, give me credit for appearing confident about tonight's Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap, which is the race of the day in the Del Mar Online Handicapping Challenge and where I spent far too much time trying to talk myself out of my $50 win-place selection of #12, Cogito, at 20-to-1.

Sharing my thoughts on the blog about select races this Del Mar contest season has generally proven the death knell for my hopes, but this particular race really got me thinking about how confidence can turn from mild to strong in an instant.

This particular contest got far more interesting for me last night with a successful $50 win-place wager (notional; no real money exchanges hands in this contest) on 29-to-1 Ann of the Dance in Race 6, which moved me into third-place of 3,750 contest players and, for now, a spot away from qualifying for the coveted National Handicapping Championship.

There are several parallels between Cogito in tonight's mile-and-three-eighths Del Mar Handicap on turf and Ann of the Dance in Friday night's contest race (same distance), as I see it.  Each horse:

• boasts commendable distance turf pedigree -- Ann of the Dance an English Channel and Cogito sired by Giant's Causeway
• second off a layoff -- (before this weekend's races) a 6-7 month rest for Ann of the Dance and exactly one year away for Cogito
• ran against much tougher than most other foes last night and tonight -- Ann of the Dance competitive at Gulfstream Park against multiple stakes winner Angelica Zapata and Cogito spotted in the 2012 Breeders Cup Turf (a somewhat troubled seventh-place) and the Eddie Read in 2012 and 2013.
• dismissed by the morning-line maker at 20-to-1 and, hopefully tonight, a big overlay.

The law of averages suggests it is highly improbable that I hit back-to-back bombs, but the more I reviewed the past performances, my selection of Cogito improved from lukewarm to increasingly confident.

As I see it, the scratch of 5-to-1 Quick Casablanca is significant, since I viewed his off-the-pace running style as similar to Cogito's and perhaps my alternate selection, and the top competitor to 7-to-2 favorite and two-time Grade 2 winner Fire With Fire.

The drawback to Fire With Fire, as I see it, is that #5, Bright Thought, looks to me like a one-paced type who needs the lead (and is nowhere near his Grade 2 San Luis Rey win in March 2013) and #10 Unbridled Command (another whose better days seem to have long passed; Grade 1 Hollywood Derby winner in November 2012) is running with blinkers for the first time and may challenge early.  I pass on all three.

The rest of the 10-horse field have questions in terms of class and/or form.

Cogito finished last of six in the Eddie Read on July 20, but the effort was not that bad off a year's layoff, with Cogito making what I saw as a strong middle move into the final turn before tiring in the stretch.  Losing to Tom's Tribute and Summer Front is no shame, and in fact I reckon Cogito is in a much softer spot here.

It may not work out, as Cogito has not won in two years and I was never a huge fan of jockey Mario Gutierrez in turf races (although he is winning at a respectable 11% in 109 starts), but at least I think, no, I am confident that this mid- to late-pack closer can fend off the likes of deep-closer types #4, Big John B, and #6, Starspangled Heat in the stretch.

CHRB Needs to DQ the Stewards

Still fuming that the winner of Sunday's Wicker Stakes at Del Mar drifted out about 7-8 paths into my onrushing horse in the stretch and cost him -- and me, the horseplayer -- the win and several dollars, I wanted to delve a bit into the disqualification issue at California's thoroughbred race tracks, namely to gain a better understanding of the process both in- and after-race.

Perhaps my research isn't the most scientific or journalistic, but for a general lack of time to conduct exhaustive research and interviews, I focused on a small sample of races since late-2017 where I recalled key disqualifications or non-DQs.

The findings are eye-opening and support my argument that the California Horse Racing Board needs to more-closely examine the highly inconsistent decisions of its referees and how they impact all parties, including paying customers, and a sport that's already rife with integrity questions. 

Most of us who support the sport recognize the risk that supposedly neutral observers -- state-licensed "race stewards" --  could make rulings we disagree with, largely in races involving claims of foul by jockeys, or in cases of "inquiry," where the stewards on their own will review a race where there's potential fouling and one horse compromised another's chances for placement. 

I'd never really questioned the integrity of the stewards or the decision-making process of these arbiters (the sport's rooted in gambling, so...), giving the benefit of the doubt that it's a difficult job that requires much training, licensing and rules interpretation and can cost the customer a lot of money.

Yet, the deeper I dig, the more I question the motives of the stewards and, for that matter, whether they're qualified to make racing DQ decisions, or better equipped to hand out soft-serve ice cream at your local DQ -- Dairy Queen.   

The ensuing samples show curious cases of clear jockey favoritism, horses not being summarily DQ'd for drifting out several paths into other horses' lanes, and of a rider being suspended for 3 days for an incident that never came up as an objection or stewards' inquiry after the race.

Feel free to comment, but overall there's a substantial case to be made about the competency of California's thoroughbred racing stewards.  

Sunday, July 22 -- Del Mar, Wicker Stakes

The Case: Dangerous riding, drifting and interference by the winner. 

Evidence: It's clear from the video, particularly the head-on view that the three stewards reviewed ("inquiry") for a good 6-7 minutes, that the horse that crossed the finish line first impeded another. 

Double Touch, #13, takes the lead in the stretch but drifts halfway out into the middle of the track, herds 3-4 other horses toward the grandstand, and bumps and potentially intimidates Bombard, #14 before the wire. Double Touch wins the photo finish, but a stewards' inquiry is declared. Surprisingly, Bombard's jockey and/or trainer didn't lodge an objection against Double Touch jockey Gary Stevens for failing to maintain his line and creating interference in the stretch.

Stewards Decision: No blood, no foul.

Outcomes: Bettors who had Double Touch cashed big on a 25-to-1 bomber, while mine and several others' win wagers on 8-to-1 Bombard were kaput. Minutes from this week's stewards meeting (page 7) make zero reference to a fine or reprimand vs. Stevens for riding dangerously, and had the audacity to say that Bombard drifted out too, which I'd argue was jockey Flavian Prat recognizing that Stevens' was rolling at him at almost 40 MPH. Sort of like being in Lane 5 of a sprint but moving to the right a little when you see Usain Bolt invading your space from all the way over in Lane 1. Common sense says to move the hell out of the way to avoid getting steamrolled.

NJ Horseplayer take: Based on the ire of several people on Twitter who either bet or just watched the race, Double Touch should have been disqualified and placed second. I complete agree. I should have been cashing winning wagers, as well as higher up the leaderboard of the Del Mar Online Contest instead of being in 180th-place out of 4,162 contestants as of this writing. 

Saturday, July 21 -- Del Mar Race 9

The Case: Jockey gets a seemingly egregious suspension from riding for, in essence, failing to ride his horse in a straight line.

Interesting, since...isn't that what Stevens did in the Wicker a day later?

Evidence: Below, watch #9, Truck Salesman, a 2-year-old making his first-ever start. Jockey Kyle Frye gets a clean lead and maintains TS's line until the stretch, where after a left-hand tap of the whip the colt tires a bit and comes into the path of fourth-place finisher Synthesis. The top three finishers were unaffected. 

Steward's Decision: Not Applicable, since there was no claim of foul by another rider vs. Frye or an inquiry into the stretch run that would merit an action such as a DQ.

Outcome: A look at the official race chart from Equibase makes zero mention of any sort of shenanigans in the stretch by Truck Salesman. Yet, in "Ruling #002" by the stewards from July 22, Frye was suspended 3 racing days for "failure to maintain a straight course in the stretch and causing interference. This constitutes a violation of California Horse Racing Board Rule #1699 (Riding Rules-Careless Riding)."

NJHorseplayer Take: Perhaps the jockey had prior warnings for similar race riding that substantiate severe 3-day penalty, but from afar the infraction seems minuscule vs. Stevens' Wicker. The cynic in me wonders whether the steward here wanted to teach the 26-year-old Frey a lesson, whereas they took no action on a Hall of Fame jockey riding for a trainer on the cusp of his first stakes win.

Sunday, May 6 -- Santa Anita Park Race 8

The Case: Winning horse ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith fails to maintain its lane, carries 2-3 of his opponents into the middle of the track during the stretch, then drifts back in before crossing the wire first.

The Background: I couldn't find a direct link of the video to post here, but it's available on Cal Racing.com and author John Cherwa gives a great account of the incident in the May 10 Los Angeles Times, including some excellent feedback from racing experts and stewards' rulings.

Steward's Decision: Our old friend -- Rule #1699 -- rears its head. The stewards made no change to the race-order finish, leaving prohibitive favorite Achira as the winner, while Geovanni Franco (who lodged a claim of foul vs. Smith...rightfully so) and runner-up Helen Hillary and that horse's connections and backers drew the short straw. But, hey, according to the stewards subsequent meeting minutes (pg. 7-8), Smith had to go back and attend a "film review" on May 10.

Outcome: Bettors who backed Helen Hillary may be angry to learn that Smith wasn't disqualified for his actions aboard Achira on May 6, but on May 10 was handed a four-day suspension (May 17-20) for, ahem, "failure to maintain a straight course and causing interference in the stretch."

NJHorseplayer Take: The ruling sounds harsh on the surface, but in hindsight is feckless, considering that Smith's suspension in California happened to be for a period when the steward knew full well that he'd be riding Justify in the Preakness Stakes in Maryland. I'm not saying that Smith should have been locked up or anything, but the CHRB is starting to look more clownish by the minute, and horseplayers who lost hard-earned money betting the victims of the race interference get zero solace in learning a few days later about a suspension, when on May 6 the stewards made a horrendous decision and bent the rules or had zero understanding of how to apply them. 

Saturday, March 10 -- Santa Anita Park, San Felipe Stakes 

I won't belabor this or the next example, but watch the replay, and read Cherwa's take in the LA Times. Smith comes out on the short end this time when DQ'd aboard apparent winner #4 McKinzie for "aggressive bumping" in the stretch, after #1 Bolt d'Oro (awarded the win by virtue of disqualification) clearly slams into him turning into the homestretch. I didn't bet this race, but watching it live and after several replay views would have made no change. Clearly the steward disagreed, first changing the order of finish, then suspending Smith three days for the incident. Read the quote from trainer Bob Baffert in the Cherwa story, pretty interesting.

Saturday, December 9, 2017 -- Los Alamitos Futurity

Another involving McKinzie. This time a suspect disqualification of a winner with obvious momentum and who looked sharper than the others, and the stewards' curious explanation. I was unable to find any follow-up investigation by the CHRB, but figure there wasn't one, since it's Los Alamitos and the officials probably wanted to move their meeting around then along to get out quicker and do their Christmas shopping.

Again, feel free to draw your own conclusions. However, as horseplayers, you'll agree that it's hard enough when you put in your work and find winners, then have it all blown up by inconsistent stewards incapable of fairly applying the rules and avoiding controversy. From the videos and other citations above, CHRB stewards are all over the map in their race-day and follow-up determinations. The state's governing body needs do something about it, namely to restore faith that horseplayers -- the core customer -- will get consistent and fair treatment on DQ rulings.