Sunday, February 20, 2011

So much for Justin Phillip

Briefly recapping Saturday's futility, I was dead wrong about Justin Phillip in the Risen Star (got bumped a bit at the start by long shot Action Ready and never really participated) and the series of changes (i.e. rider change for the injured Eibar Coa and removal of blinkers) for Mucho Macho Man, who was very impressive in outracing Santiva to the finish.  On the other hand, I wasn't that far off on Rogue Romance, and Machen looked decent but did not justify the short price off a 6-to-1 M/L.

Meanwhile, does anyone else have that jockey who always wins when you shy away but loses when you show support?  For me, it's Joe Bravo.  Sleepless Knight was absolutely full of run in the Fair Grounds Handicap and should have won, and for some reason all riders let Rosie Napravnik and Workin for Hops crawl on the lead in 26.3, 53.2 and 1:18.3.  Sleepless Knight got a great ground-saving trip, but was compromised down the stretch when Hops tired and appeared to drift in toward the rail, prompting a 5-wide move that, in my view, proved the difference between victory and 32-to-1 shot Expansion scoring the win (and probably ruining many short-price players' day at the contest).  In hindsight, the pace could not have proven more perfect for Expansion, especially if you go back and look at the horse's win in the 2009 Grade 2 Red Smith and close 3rd in the 2010 Grade 1 ManOWar.  Meanwhile, Shau Bridgmohan did me no favors in my contest, failing to rate Joinem close enough to the lead to have the momentum to close against snail-like fractions.  Ah, the joy of handicapping!

By the way, I received an email that the online qualifying site for the Breeders Cup Betting Challenge is now open.  Please feel free to share feedback if you have participated in last year's event.  As only a casual contest player, it is hard for me to commit the time to events outside of the occasional NHC qualifiers, but it does seem like a great proposition for a $100 entry fee.

No comments:

Post a Comment