Ellis Park contest declared a non-starter

Best laid plans...

Evidently, after one race, the organizers of the Ellis Park contest written about earlier today had some IT troubles that prompted the cancellation of the event and a reschedule for next Saturday, which makes for a bit of a conflict with the Sovereign Stables freebie as well.  It'll be interesting to see whether there is differentiation in the two contest cards, though I suspect they'll both again focus on Monmouth, Saratoga and Del Mar.

Clearly the outcomes of Sunday's race did not matter with the contest cancellation, but based on the picks I put up earlier I would have netted a $44.60 of winnings, hitting Chief Operator at nearly 9-to-1 in the 12th at Monmouth ($19.40 to win, $6.40 to place) and the EXTREMELY impressive Dreamcaster at 6-to-5 in the 6th at Del Mar ($4.40 to win, $3.80 to place), and calling runner-up Allen's Star at nearly 6-to-1 ($8.20 to place) and defaulting to second-choice Tempted to Tapit ($2.40 to place) in the 9th at Monmouth with the scratch of my original selection.  

I suppose I can otherwise take satisfaction in picking the top two finishers in the 11th at Saratoga and 12th at Monmouth, with respective $2 exacta payouts of $107 and $69.80.  I hope those proved valuable to readers.

Horse Tourneys - Ellis Park contest

The operators of Ellis Park in Kentucky are diving headlong into the NHC Tour Championship circuit, starting this afternoon with a free online tournament for one spot in the $2 million year-end event in Las Vegas.  More details are available on the Horse Tourneys website.

New tournament kicks off Sunday

Earlier this week, Ellis Park Race Course, Inc. announced that, for the remainder of the season, the track will be offering a whopping 50 seats to the 2012 National Handicapping Championship. As this equates to 10% of the 500-seat NHC (at what a source earlier this year told me was at a cost of about $5k-$10k per seat), Ellis Park deserves much credit in putting its footprints all over the 2012 NHC. 

When there is more time later this week I anticipate talking more in-depth on this topic, but for the time being the Ellis Park contest offers an attractive option, whereby contest players make an "alternate" pick for each of the 10-race card; this way, long-shot players are not necessarily defaulted to the post-time favorite - a nice feature and one that other online tournament organizers should embrace.

Here is a look at my early selections on the card (subject to change; i.e. whether my wife will let me stay home and watch...or make me go out and shop for more items for our home renovation), which I might add deviates from my typical penchant for long shots, though I've sprinkled a few in the mix:

Event	Primary Pick	Alternate Pick
1 Saratoga Race 8	6 Por Que' Te Quiero	9 Crespano
2 Monmouth Race 9	7 Gaither Draw	3 Tempted to Tapit
3 Monmouth Race 10	7 Dream	9 Coco Ecolo - MTO
4 Saratoga Race 10	2 Bank Merger	8 Trappe Shot
5 Monmouth Race 11	4 Born Bullish	3 Fan Out
6 Del Mar Race 3	2 Full Deputy	4 My Boy Luke
7 Saratoga Race 11	6 Allen's Star	13 Hurling - AE
8 Monmouth Race 12	9 Chief Operator	4 Sadler Power
9 Del Mar Race 5	5 Free Range	6 Abovetheinfluence
10 Del Mar Race 6	5 Dreamcaster (GB)	3 Cha Cha Latte

Maidens: Mayday! Mayday!

The annual pilgrimage to Saratoga was its usual great social experience (outside of having a betting ticket more or less stolen from me at the window), but frustrating from a handicapping perspective, particularly in light of the abundance of maiden races on Sunday's 10-race card.

Emboldened a bit by the July 25 Night School web chat on handicapping two-year-old horses at Horse Player Now, I wanted to give the early Pick 4 a try.  The sequence featured four consecutive maiden races (though not all with two-year-old runners), and on my $12 ticket (50-cent base wager) I hit the second (3-to-2 favorite Queens or Better) and third (6-to-1 Professor Fate) legs but missed on enormous prices in legs one and four; the Pick 4 ultimately paid nearly $27k, implying a difficult sequence.

Trying to make sense
of #1 Margo Verge

The final leg, Race 5, came into focus.  Spending the day with Grandpa NJ Horseplayer, Red Rock or Bust and three other friends, I posed a question to my amigos about the rail horse, Margo Verge, a three-year-old filly trained by Bruce Levine who posted a decent third-place in her first start in late March and a lackluster fifth in her second start in late May; both maiden claimer dirt sprints.

I was intrigued by the 8-to-1 morning line on Margo Verge on the first-time claim trainer angle (22% in 123 starts) along with the drop from $50k to $25k company and first-time turf, but unsure what to make of the second-consecutive two-month break between races, plus the lack of published workout in four weeks; the last being July 3 at 3f in a breezy 37 seconds (second best of six).  Was this horse sound heading into the race?  These are the questions that most of us on the outside surely cannot answer, and along with the jockey angle (I never seem to score with Alan Garcia, who was 0-for-25 on the meet to that point), and some supportive insights from Red Rock's handicapping consultant and Bloomberg writer Dave P., I left Margo Verge off my ticket.

The decision never cost me since I was out after the first leg, but we watched Margo Verge run a gutty second, a half-length behind 32-to-1 Unknown Wonder, ridden by J.L. Espinoza (who almost won later in the card on a 40-to-1 shot).  It got me wondering...what in the past performances suggested this horse (or the winner) would run so well?  Why two lines between two starts?  Can handicappers really glean any valuable insight in the work tab leading up to a maiden event?  I clearly am lost for answers, so feel free to comment.

In the end, there a few takeaways to consider from Sunday's Saratoga experience:

• Handicapping maidens is extremely difficult, not only for weekend handicappers like me but presumably for even the most experienced horseplayers; the Pick 4 payoff in relation to the pool indicates that 9-10 people cashed (lucrative) tickets - clearly a low percentage
• Avoid spending too much time on past performances for maidens, particular full of first-time starters; focus on building Pick 3 and 4 tickets around races with more experienced horses where you at least will have a richer body of work to analyze
• It makes for a great day at the track (stolen ticket and a lower bankroll aside) to spend with friends who enjoy talking through various race angles and past performance analysis - you can learn a lot from talking with experienced handicappers
• Start planning next year's trip to the Spa ASAP. 

A head and a half from potential contest glory

The amazing thing I have learned in just two-plus years of playing on the thoroughbred handicapping contest circuit is how small race margins often determine not only the player's outcome, but prompt change of strategy in a heartbeat.

Friday night's It's Del Mar Time contest at HorsePlayersQualify.com was a case in point. The contest centered on the 8-race card, with handicappers making mythical $2 win-place wagers and earning a point for each dollar of "real" win and place money earned by one's horse.  Of my three contests this weekend (more below), this is one I handicapped thoroughly, but only tied for 46th-place in a 150-person field, accruing 446 points; the winner tallied 1,128 to take down the $2,500 cash prize (for a $50 tournament entry fee).

Race 3 proved the decisive contest race.  After tallying 102 points in selecting second-place finisher Traweek (9-to-1) in the opener, I picked up another 112 points on winner Heleonor Rugby (5-to-2) in Race 2 (paid $7.80 to win, $3.40 to place) to move into sixth-place.  In handicapping Race 3, I identified 4 horses at better than 5-to-1 that I considered playable, and eventually settled on #6 Capalatte, who shot up to 22.5-to-1 off a 10-to-1 morning line and, I thought, would benefit from some rest and had run well last summer at Del Mar against tougher claimers; Friday's 3rd was an $8k claimer at 7 furlongs.



The race shape was exactly as anticipated, and the freshening obviously helped Capalatte. Jockey Alonso Quinonez put this 4-year-old filly in a perfect ground-saving, stalking trip along the rail and passed the leaders turning for home but was gunned down by a head at the wire by 14.7-to-1 Akeela, my second choice ($442 exacta that I did not have...ouch!).  On track, Capalatte paid a healthy $17.20 to place, but the 172 points within the contest format dropped me to 21st-place, since Akeela ($31.40 to win, $11.80 to place) produced 432 points to anyone who had her (or, the 20 players ahead of me in the standings).

From a small sample of people beneath me in the standings, it looked like few had Capalatte, but I kept a positive perspective ahead with five races to go in the contest. Race 4 provided a similarly grueling outcome for my contest hopes, with 6.6-to-1 (the second-longest shot in a 6-horse field) Lift Our Luck gunned down in the final 50 yards to finish second (60 contest points for the $6 place payout).



So, four contest races...one winner and three seconds, with about a half length the difference between my 17th-place standing halfway through the card and, presumably, a decent lead.  From that point on I went 0-for-4, taking some shots on double-digit horses (none of which finished better than fourth), feeling the need to hit some decent prices in order to have a real shot at taking the top spot. Was the decision a bit hasty? Maybe, but by that time, despite some excellent handicapping, I was 440 points off the leader, who went 4-for-4 to that point. From there on, the winners of races 5-8 yielded a total of 678 points, but that was a best-case scenario for even the best of handicappers (NJ Horseplayer not among them).

I have yet to be in a position to "play from ahead," so to speak, but Friday's experience had me wondering how I might have played races 5-8 with the lead.  In Races 5 and 6, I switched away from short-price plays that finished only third and fourth, while in Race 7 I had identified eventual winner Cloud Man as the horse to beat, but not much of a play at 3-to-2. Shoulda coulda woulda, I suppose, but it makes for good self-analysis in preparing for future contests, and hopefully provides some value to my blog readers.

PS. For the sake of disclosure, I did participate in Sunday's NHC Tour Summer Online Challenge, but barely prepared in advance, owing to a massive workload this weekend in preparing for a major renovation at the NJ Horseplayer house. I made hasty selections on the 10-race contest card, but would not put this one among the "value-adds" of handicapping contest afterthought.

Next up...Monday night's Horse Player Now Night School web chat on handicapping two-year old races...hopefully valuable ahead of this Sunday's road trip to Saratoga with Red Rock or Bust, Tony the (retired) Mailman (my Dad) and Walter M, who is dusting me thus far with chalky selections in the free Del Mar online contest.

NJ Horseplayer 101 (as in Post #101)

Amazingly I've had a lot to say about nothing since entering the blogosphere this year -- very Seinfeld-ian...

Alan "Skipper" Hale's
albatross; NJ Horseplayer's
has been picking winners at
Monmouth Park in '11

This weekend will be active in terms of tournament action for me, namely Sunday's NHC Tour Summer Online Challenge, open to anyone who forked over the $45 annual membership fee.  The Top Three finishers (a tough task in an event that draws more than 3,000 players) win berths to the NHC Tour Championship in Las Vegas; my best effort was 16th-place in last year's Kentucky Derby contest.

At quick glance over lunch, the 10-race card is tough, featuring three races each from Del Mar and Woodbine, and two apiece from The Spa and Monmouth, the latter of which has been a handicapping albatross for me this season. Plus, tournament organizers included a bunch of maiden events, which should make for a wide-open result where pedigree players certainly will be at an advantage (not my strong suit).

Saturday's action will focus on the Public Handicapper, where I am 3-for-27 this season but at a $22.80 profit, good enough for 333rd-place in a contest with nearly 3,500 players and a big lead over Red Rock or Bust for annual bragging rights and fine dining at Vic's in Bradley Beach.

Meanwhile, and maybe I missed this because of my affinity for the Daily Racing Form, but I realized that Equibase offers free contests; this week's features four races each from Saratoga and Del Mar, with the Top Five finishers (looks like 1,500 or so compete regularly) either earning small cash prizes ($75-$300) or premium past performances for three months.  Good practice at no cost, regardless of my result.

Finally, tonight I'm giving it a shot in a $50 online contest run by HorsePlayersQualify.com, where up to 150 paid contestants get a shot at winning upwards of $2k for accruing the highest notional bankroll ($2W/P bets) through the 8-card program at Del Mar.  I had been hoping all week to head over to Monmouth Park for the late-afternoon portion of the card today, but alas the entire slate was cancelled due to the oppressive weather here in the Garden State. So, hopefully, the power will stay on, the AC will kick and my picks will pan out while handicapping and watching TVG from the couch.

Saturday I'm going to be kicking it at Avon By The Sea with my son and two of his friends, but I hope to weigh in on Sunday morning with some thoughts about the NHC Tour Summer Online Challenge.

PS. It's OK to be a follower in the blogosphere. Scroll down the right side of the page and click on the "follower" link to become one of the coolest half-dozen people in America.

Need PhD. to follow proposed changes to NHC Championship

Let's just say that an email from NTRA on Tuesday left me excited but confused all at once.

The NTRA erroneously congratulated me (and presumably all registered Tour players) on qualifying for the 2012 NHC Tour Championship ("NHC13") in Las Vegas, which I'll take (if they want to let me in after such horrific handicapping this season).  However, the note appeared intended for all Tour player feedback on some changes proposed as soon as January 2012's event, so I'm figuring the tournament organizers have discovered the erroneous email.

NJ Horseplayer lost yet again...

Predicting pace scenarios, studying past performances and managing contest bankroll and selections are certainly hard enough in preparing for handicapping contests, but the details of NTRA's plans for the Championship are even more vexing, in my opinion.

The current tournament structure is a two-day event, where 500 contest players who reached the Championship through local qualifiers gather in Vegas and are required to make mythical $2 win and place wagers on 15 races each day, with 8 mandatory races (i.e. all players make a selection) and 7 optional races. Mythical winnings are capped at 20-1 to win and 10-1 to place.

It appears, however, that the Championship organizers are seeking feedback on a plan to extend the Championship to a third day, where the Top 80 finishers from Days 1 and 2 would compete in a series of 4-race elimination rounds, in essence halving the field in a progressive format akin to the World Series of Poker, where players "win their table" and move to another table as the field size shrinks before determining a tournament champion.

Granted, I have not made it to the Championship in just two-plus years of trying, but I responded unfavorably to the survey.  As I commented in the survey, three straight days is way too taxing (not to mention coming off as the host casino looking to fill rooms another day).  Personally, I am spent even after an afternoon contest, what with the preparation, constant monitoring of contest bankrolls and leader boards and the decision making of which horses to select.  I could not imagine going back for a third day, and would be even more upset (though unlikely to happen) to have outpaced a 500-person field for two days, only to be eliminated on day three just for picking four races poorly.

In short, 30 races is more than enough of a sample to determine the NHC Tour champion in a particular season.  Adding a handful of races to give a WSOP feel to the event is a bit overzealous, if you ask me, and I am hoping that other NHC Tour members share my sentiments.  Otherwise, if I need to read an email a half-dozen times to figure out what the proposal spells out, then I want no part.  Handicapping tournaments are hard enough already.

A length short of advancing in BC contest?

As noted on Saturday, I was extremely high on a 20-to-1 shot, Casino Host, in Saturday's Grade 2 Virginia Derby, the 9th of 10 races in the contest at BCQualify.com.

With only 200 yards or so to the finish of the mile-and-a-quarter Grade 2 turf race, I honestly thought I had an excellent shot, with Casino Host benefiting from a nice ground-saving trip before poking his head in front down the stretch, only to be surpassed by Air Support and Banned to burst my hopes for a Top 30 finish and a spot in next week's 90-player championship for two NHC Tour Championship seats.

Instead, I finished 221st with only $9.80 in mythical winnings, with two second-place finishers and a few others that ran gamely, which amounts to nothing, really.



Outside of putting my contest eggs in the Casino Host basket, here's a brief recap of Saturday's plays:

• Arlington 6: Cantonic (6-to-1, down from 8-to-1 M/L) - decent fourth, ran to the lead as expected but gunned down by the 4-to-5 favorite toward the wire
• Arlington 7: Charter Class (11-to-1, up from 10-to-1 M/L) - finished about an hour after everyone else; never got to the lead as needed and started running in reverse after about four furlongs
• Arlington 8: Capitol Appeal (10-to-1, up from 8-to-1 M/L) - trouble from the word go; never close
• Colonial 4: Ancil (7-to-2, down from 8-to-1 M/L) - finished second, paid $4.20 to place; perfect trip and appeared to have it late, but lost by a head to Major Magic
• Colonial 5: Jazil's Song (3-to-1, down from 10-to-1 M/L) - really slow start, but finished 4th, but probably a contest-changer for anyone who had the winner, 30-to-1 Softly Lit, who I never considered in handicapping the 10-race card on Friday night
• Colonial 6: Rules of Honor (7-to-1, down from 20-to-1 M/L) - good mid-pack trip and covered up well along the rail, made up ground at the top of the stretch and flattened to finish 5th
• Colonial 7: Summer Savory (9-to-2, down from 8-to-1 M/L) - great rail trip and was easily good enough to win, if not having to delay twice along the rail down the stretch, with Mystical Star in the way; finished second by a half-length and paid $5.60 to place
• Colonial 8: Casino Host (20-to-1, on par with morning line) - simply beaten late by two better horses and finished third, but convinced the win could have put me within the top 30 and yield roughly $60 of notional win/place money; sample showed only two of the top 60 finishers picking this one, suggesting few others likely made this call; moot point, though
• Hollywood 7: Ambassy (13-to-1, up from 12-to-1 M/L) - never a factor
• Hollywood 9: Fund Raiser (16.9-to-1, up from 8-to-1 M/L) - late switch from original pick Tanda (7-to-2, up from 4-to-1 M/L), looking for a big price out of desperation in the final contest race but never really factored finished 6th; Tanda finished a game third

There are really no tremendous takeaways or regrets from Saturday's contest picks (outside of not winning or advancing to next week). Next up is next Sunday's NHC Tour Summer Online Challenge, which will be more about practicing my handicapping, since there will be roughly 3,500 contestants competing for 3 NHC Tour Championship seats. Odds are slim, but I'll be involved.