So Happy About the 2026 Kentucky Derby

The last Kentucky Derby winner I picked was Maximum Security in 2019.

Alright, he was disqualified after crossing the wire first after a suspect stewards decision, but the moral of the story is to take mine and most peoples' picks with a grain of salt. It's a grueling race to handicap and a one-off with as many as 20 entrants.

Anything can happen in an enormous field, and this year I've avoided going down the rabbit hole of excessive handicapping beyond watching select Kentucky Derby prep replays and narrowing down to some horses capable of finishing in the top three in Saturday's Run for the Roses and reasons why you should consider them in your wagers, ranked in order of preference.

Two potential winners ("A" horses)

#8, So Happy (15-1): Versatility will do this Mark Glatt trainee well. Wins at three distances in four lifetime starts and in different pace scenarios, from blazing to dawdling. Mike Smith has been aboard all four starts and his only loss was his first try at two turns, yielding late but finishing third. I sense he'll be near the pace and view two-time Derby winner "Money Mike" as an asset. If nothing else, I'll be rooting hard for Glatt, whose wife died abruptly in February at 57 due to heart failure. In this environment, we could all use a feel-good story.

 #6, Commandment (6-1): "Experts" are high on Bill Mott trainee Chief Wallabee (see below) but that's recency bias after the Mott-Junior Alvarado 2025 Derby victory. Commandment is better and beat Wallabee head-to-head 2x, including in the Fountain of Youth (FOY) and Florida Derby. Commandment looks like the perfect stalker who can grind out a win and not have to be right on the pace. Lots of fight in this one. Sense he'll hold his 6-1 morning line, which is great value. The knock is that jockey Luis Saez has yet to ride Commandment, as previous winning jockeys Irad Ortiz and Flavien Prat went to other horses. No matter. Saez is world-class and this is a gutsy runner. The knock may be that you have to go back to 2013 to find the last FOY-Florida Derby winner dressed in roses (Orb).

Second Tier ("B" horses - some things need to go their way)

#11, Incredibolt (20-1): Very hit or miss. Two stylish come-from-behind stakes wins in the Street Sense and Virginia Derby in mid-March. Granted, fields were soft, but his late kick is eye-catching. Riley Mott may have the horse on the rise here for his Derby training debut whereas pops, Bill, has a game horse (Chief Wallabee) that only boasts a maiden victory but will draw a lot of wagering. 

#15, Emerging Market (15-1): I'll hate myself, again, after the race ends in giving another promising Chad Brown horse a serious Derby look, but this one can hit the board. Only his third lifetime start after debut maiden win in Tampa, followed by Grade 2 Louisiana Derby win in mid-March. The downside is he outlasted a competitor there that's 30-1 on Saturday and may be closer to 40-1, but Prat stays aboard and appeared to be restraining EM in the early stages before letting lose late to prevail by a head. It's also hard to discount using America's best jockey somewhere on the ticket.

Third Tier ("C" horses - a lot of things need to go their way)

#1, Renegade (4-1): Morning line favorite, which is insane no matter the quality. Rail horses do not and will not win the Derby in the existing 20-horse configuration. Rail horses get a little more relief than in the past, but Renegade will have a lot to contend with to make the first turn in one piece. That said, the Irad Ortiz-Todd Pletcher jockey-trainer combo is nothing to sneeze at and they've demolished good fields in prepping for the Derby. I'd like him more with a better draw, and were the speed figures better. So you can have him at 4-1, or 5-1, or 10-1. Not my cup of tea on the win end. Maybe underneath.

#12, Chief Wallabee (8-1): I'm using him at the bottom of my trifecta and see third as ceiling. Maybe adding blinkers on Saturday is the winning recipe, but I'm not a huge fan of horses unable (to this point) to outduel foes in the stretch. It happened twice here, which is cause for concern, though like others I respect the connections. Think Alydar. 

NJ Horseplayer's Ill-Fated Trifecta Ticket

Perhaps I'd serve society better making a $12 donation to charity but here's my structure, consistent with the above ABC analysis: 6, 8 with 6, 8, 11, 15 with 1, 6, 8, 11, 12, 15.

Caveat emptor as the legendary Mike Brady once advised his son Greg.

[#20, Fulleffort, removed from Third Tier after scratch on Thursday afternoon and #5, Right to Party, removed after scratch on Friday.]

NHC 26: A Few Lengths from the Money

There's no glory in finishing 461st of 828 in NHC26, but several positive takeaways from my fifth NHC effort. 

The trip started horribly, with a TSA sick-out prompting jetBlue flight cancellation from Newark six hours before takeoff, a miraculous shift to JFK, delays, and 3:30 a.m. hotel arrival. 

I barely slept, considering the travel after-effects, contest anticipation, and 9 a.m. start to NHC26, and it showed on Day 1. 

I banked a mere $23.80 on a chalky Friday where half of winners in my 16 races (6 mandatory, 10 optional) were post-time favorites at average odds of 1.6-to-1, but wasn't dejected only $55 off the 83rd-place goal for Sunday-championship qualification and as I somehow maintained strategic focus of targeting vulnerable favorites while avoiding action-oriented impulse plays. 

* Denotes mandatory; first 6 races

Saturday was far better, with 8.2-to-1 and 10.7-to-1 winners in two of the eight mandatories, a 9-1 place, and five near-miss thirds including three cap types that simply didn't go my way. I might have been a Sunday qualifier with a bit more luck in two of these. Here's the replay evidence.

Aqueduct, Race 3, #6 Unbridled Bomber (18.06-to-1): The two longest shots in a sketchy 6-horse field made sense; just went the wrong way as Centavo was closer to the pace to score at 17.75-to-1 and my pick missed second by a neck, costing at least $10 of place money.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 5, #10 Radar Loop (19.5-to-1): A gut punch. Great stalking trip and had enough to win but squeezed badly in the stretch by the top two and lost all action before edged for third. There was a lengthy inquiry (stewards' notes lend little to this) and I believe grounds from the head-on of a double DQ had Radar Loop held for third. I was disappointed but not waylaid.  

Aqueduct, Race 7, #5 Blue Forty Two (21.25-to-1): No qualms, just too belated an effort and the favorite won at 0.67-to-1. Contest players love big fields, but I cite this and AQ3 above as opportunities to beat short-priced favorites in small fields, which should lend well to cleaner trips in optional races where the majority of contestants may be inclined to take a pass.   

Santa Anita Park, Race 3, #2 Quereme Pass (9-to-1): Not much to say. Second best. Great trip, nose beat. Missed opportunity for $20+ of win money.

Colonial Downs, Race 10, #5 Sharp Tones (28.3-to-1): On the flipside of the above "clean trips in short fields" logic, Joe Rocco's ride was abysmal. This one still gets under my skin. A YouTube replay wasn't available, but here's one from Bloodhorse. Rocco easily cost the three lengths needed to win by inexplicably running up on heels in the first furlong then completely losing patience top of the stretch with an erratic wide move. A sound optional play but a clearly unfavorable trip.

Gulfstream Park, Race 12, #10 Coco Abarrio (15.1-to-1): The top two finishers of 10 were 18-to-1 and 33-to-1, so my logic was correct. No qualms with performance but missed decent place money in this wide-option optional contest race. (Spanish-language replay.)

Santa Anita Park, Race 7, #10 Centrodelantero (4.4-to-1): One of the later races and a 9-horse field but sitting on a few late bullets, I made this more logical play in the seventh of eight Day 2 mandatories. Great trip, got the lead 2x in stretch but a nose-beat third in a 3-horse photo. The potential $16-$18 of bankroll would have positioned me to play less of a reach in my final two picks instead of 38-to-1 and 46-to-1.

The outcomes stunk, but on a patient handicapping front, I was satisfied with my Saturday effort, identifying several opportunities to strike with less popular selections. I believe it's key to contest success, no matter the format.

The table below shows the average odds of my Saturday selections was far higher than Friday's, yet several were in contention, and surely enough where my outcome could have been different with some racing luck. Only 25% of winners in my 20 Saturday races were favorites vs. 50% on Friday, so I mapped out appropriate opportunities.

* Denotes mandatory; first 8 races

NHC26 proved to be my best finish, sadly, but continued progress from NHC25. I'll continue to consider live-money tournaments at Monmouth Park and maybe Laurel Park, but target the bigger Horse Tourneys tournaments before online NHC events despite their slightly lower-cost entry points. 

The NHC is always a great time and it's gratifying to qualify for such a tremendous test, but with the prize pool flattening and players' gifts deteriorating (e.g., from a $100 casino chip per qualifier and open bar to a cheapo backpack) by the year, I envision no change in my bankroll to make it to NHC27. 

Fortune (and Lessons) in the Flo-Cal

After a career-best fifth-place finish (of 249) in Horse Tourney's Flo-Cal Faceoff, I let the dust settle before studying my decisions and outcome, worth $14,639 of winnings. Not a bad return on my winning $28 feeder to secure a first seat and $146 invested thereafter to try (unsuccessfully) to procure a second seat.

The format was a notional $2 win-place wager on all 38 races on the Saturday and Sunday cards at Gulfstream Park (Florida) and Santa Anita (California), with caps of 20-1 on win and 10-1 on place. 

It's consistent with most online handicapping contests and akin to the format for the National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas on March 13-15, for which I've qualified yet where there are a lot more races to pick from and optional contest bets.

Flo-Cal is a 38-race grind over two days that requires patience, clean trips, luck here and there, and identifying bad favorites vs. competitent long-shots. Timing also matters, especially in the latter stages of any contest and particularly one where there were only two boxcar race winners, one at each track.

In the end, I amassed a $198.60 bankroll ($2.61 ROI) with six winners and four place finishers; adding in seven show runners, 17 of my 38 picks hit the board. 

Saturday started on the wrong foot as my alternate selection (players pick a "backup" each race in the event the primary is a late scratch) Mis Brunellas won the opener at Gulfstream and produced a day-high $35.80. Primary pick Golden Choice was a game third as jockey Junior Alvarado picked a wider path instead of tracking the winner along the rail, then checked a bit in the stretch - perhaps enough to cost a placing. The positive was that I at least found a competent horse at 14-1. The negative was being $35.80 out of the lead one race into it. 

I did connect for $22.80 with Alverado-ridden Roar Ready, winner of Gulfstream 3, and followed with place scores on short prices in races 4 (second by a neck) and 6 (second to 2-5 winner) before going 0-6 for the rest of the Florida card.

Turning to Cali, 10-1 Church Lady netted $12.80 of place money despite an incredibly troubled/nearly catastrophic race 3 second. Race 5 produced $25.80 through Nancy Griffith, who made a late surge to win by a nose at almost 9-1 under Edwin Maldonado. I went winless over Santa Anita's final four, and switching off race 6 winner Potente at the last second cost me $5.30 (and in hindsight around $3,000 more of winnings as I finished $4 out of fourth). 

But no crying. After Day 1 of grinding, I was inside the top 100 with $66.60 and not so far off the leaders after 21 fairly chalky race outcomes. It gave me hope of staying in it and catching a few big prices without stabbing all Sunday.

Turning to Sunday, I'll go to the grave that 19-1 Turbo Fire was good enough to win rather than finish third in the second from Gulfstream (race replay) if not for a hesitant midrace ride by the green Juan Rodriguez, but it was a zero for me albeit a confidence booster from a handicapping competency perspective. 

I caught 3-2 Snowyte two races later in a short field for $7.20 to move the needle forward, and pulled a Costanza (e.g., doing the opposite of my normal tendencies) two races later in GP6, supporting jockey Jesus Rios - historically a recipe for disaster for me - aboard 33-1 Mario's Sweet Girl in a bottom-level claimer. 

True to form, the jockey did the opposite of what the past performances suggested as a recipe for success...sprint to the lead and hope. 

Instead, after an incredibly alert break from the outside post, Rios reined in MSG back to fifth, surely a precursor to such a bomber dropping anchor, I thought. 

Yet he had horse and astutely kept a wide path (the dirt course rail at GP was completely dead all weekend) before drawing away like Secretariat to, finally, produce a contest bomber and $64 "capper" payout. The only one. 

As an avid race replay watcher, with a straight face (dare me; I can produce the texts to friends saying as much) what caught my eye about MSG in a bad field of 1x winners was her maiden win on November 27 at a similar distance. She handled the rail, rated well, accepted a challenge in the stretch, and finished confidently with a win at 20-1 that afternoon, seen here. Watch the 1:  

Not to mention that the third-place finisher that day, Souffle on Fire, won in a feeder I participated in Friday. I sensed MSG's 30-1 morning line was awful and capitalized. It moved me into the top 10, but with what seemed like an eternity of contest races remaining.

I took the odds-on favorite in the next (GP7) to net a generous $6.40 from Paris Surprise, who won stylishly, and then $3.40 of tough-trip place money on Mr. Leasure(sic) in the Santa Anita opener to seize sixth place. 

From there, however, it was a backpedal - 0 for 6 including a horrific ride by Hector Berrios on 6-1 first-timer Acoustic Kitty in SA5. Watch the 7:

A **** ton of horse. The check at the start wasn't a game-ender as Berrios guided Acoustic Kitty to the rail, but then grew impatient after getting shut off and jerked the horse into the six path before a belated rush for third. I was frustrated. Acoustic Kitty was clearly best, and I remembered that a day earlier that trainer John Sadler scratched her from a similar, presumably harder spot based on a 12-1 morning line on Saturday vs. 6-1 in Sunday's fifth race. 

Part of me thought luck had run out and I was going to crap out. 

The rational part saw three more good opportunities.

Not really liking anyone in 6-horse race 6, I settled on a bad 4-5 favorite, The Big Cheeseola. It isn't a move I'd have made as a less-experienced player when I'd have gone for broke rather than move the chains but I didn't want to chase as I saw viable long shots in the penultimate and final races. She survived for second, so I held my nose and took the $2.40 to cling to 20th - the final money spot ($1,500). 

Race 7 was a bottom-level claiming sprint with a bad favorite. My wheelhouse for finding a price.

The 8-horse field was bad, and typical of California tracks, the bettors pounded the favorite. 

On the other hand, my horse Little Tinker Elle was 30-1 on the morning line, which for my money looked atrociously off considering three convincing wins and a close second in her past four starts including at the tougher allowance level, albeit on the Los Alamitos quarterhorse circuit.

I was confident she'd at least break to the lead. The question was whether she'd hold it going longer than the 4.5 furlongs in the four prior races. 

Did she ever. Watch the 7:

Little Tinker Elle's strides clearly shortened toward the finish line, but she was so far ahead of the pack and won by almost two to give me $48.60 and fourth place with one to go. I felt vindicated sticking with my view that prices were to be had and to remain patient. 

Sitting about $30 out of first and $117,000 of prize money but with several others breathing down my neck, I debated how best to approach the finale. Side with the favorite, who I liked, in a 13-horse field and maybe move up a spot for a bigger prize than fourth (and potentially Day 2 money; prizes to the four highest bankrolls each day), or find a logical low-double-digit runner.

Beyond going for the win, the logic in the latter is equally defensive in contest play, the idea being to "block" others lower in the standings from passing. 

Race 8 offered plenty of long shots; some unplayable, and so I narrowed down to two or three and landed semi-confidently on 16-1 Clubhouse Bride, despite jockey Tyler Baze's 1-42 win rate. He's sort of a West Coast version of the aforementioned Jesus Rios; e.g., not the most dependable. 

Long story short, Clubhouse Bride looked the same as 6-7 of the other Cal breds. Yet from her troubled trip in Race 4 on December 28 (watch the 10 in the video below), I sensed that without an early check that afternoon and four-wide trip in the turn and through the stretch, she could compete with a clean trip.

As misfortune would have it, similar story Sunday with 2-3 light checks in the backstretch before a pretty severe one behind foes into the turn, before a competitive finish. Watch the 5:

Was Clubhouse Bride good enough? Finishing fourth only three lengths off the winner, I'd argue that a clean trip would have meant everything. Especially to me, since I'd have catapulted to first place. 

But them's the breaks and I'm not going to complain about a five-figure score in the lead-up to NHC. 

My Flo-Cal handicapping and plays were strong, and part of this writing exercise is not to gloat but to stow away for later reading and as a reminder when faced with similar situations in events as small as a feeder contest or as big as the multimillion-dollar NHC, which is just five weeks away, that (1) take the free squares when they make sense, (2) remain patient, and (3) focus on handicapping and well-supported picks instead of playing the leaderboard.