It's last-minute notice, but if you're interested in a free shot at a seat to the 2017 National Handicapping Championship (NHC), entering Del Mar's online handicapping challenge by this afternoon could be your ticket.
Del Mar in San Diego, CA, kicks off its "Bing Crosby" meet this afternoon. The season, and handicapping contest, run through December 4, and again they're offering players a free, online tournament for two berths to the NHC.
As there's no cost to play I can't complain, but the format has been changed this year to one that I'm admittedly not crazy about.
Consistent with years past, players get a mythical $100 bankroll per day on which to place bets on a pre-selected race each racing day. In years past the wagers were limited to win, place and/or show, and payouts were capped at a robust 30-to-1.
This year, Del Mar has broadened the "wagering" card to exactas and trifectas and removed the cap.
The benefit for players who like to play those wagers is that one major score could be the difference.
The drawback is that it's not really about picking winners anymore, the basis upon which the NHC champion is determined each season. I see the positives and negatives, but for the latter think that someone can just get lucky playing a $100 trifecta with their three favorite numbers and getting lucky.
Regardless, I'm entered to play (user name "billhobo") and have had success in the past, qualifying for the 2015 NHC through Del Mar's summer contest.
It's a lot of fun to play, so make sure to enter; and for NHC Tour players it's a must, since Tour points are awarded to the Top 10% of finishers, consistent with other NHC-focused contests.
A few friends and family have asked, so here goes.
My vote on Public Question #1 is a resounding "No", with advice to the State Legislature, especially South Jersey politicians to go back to the drawing board and get your head out of the 1970s.
After 40+ years of abominable mismanagement of casino gaming in Atlantic City, including Governor Christie's stupid backing with tax incentives of completion of the Revel, the state wants us to support an ill-drawn plan that would put a multistory casino in Jersey City, another 10 miles away at the Meadowlands, and again screw the state's thoroughbred program and Monmouth Park.
Rightfully, Oceanport's leaders have called this out. The bill's logic is so flawed and has far more question marks than answers, typical of NJ politics where it's "vote yes now with 10% of the details and transparency and we'll figure it out later...once our friends get paid."
What NJ needs, and what many voters would support, simply, are smaller "neighborhood" casinos at Monmouth Park and the Big M that daytrippers will use and that will steal business back from nearby racinos in New York (Yonkers, Aqueduct) and Pennsylvania, where PARX (Philadelphia) is physically closer to A.C. than Monmouth Park.
Only in NJ would legislators back a bill that spitefully excludes Oceanport as a potential site. That's because, by this bill, a new casino has to be, specifically, 72 miles outside of A.C.
Guess how far Monmouth is from there?!
That's right.
I was in A.C. two weeks ago, solely for a convention. It's clear that after 40 years of failure, in a dire market with an outdated business model and looking to take the state's racing industry down with it, the Vegas by the Shore theme is a misnomer. It's a convention city with a gambling side business and has never evolved. If they'd had any sense, they would have backed expanding the NJ market and cross promoting itself through partners at Monmouth and the Meadowlands, but that hasn't happened. Instead, much as they got buddy Chris Christie to strip the tracks of millions of dollars of annual profit-sharing (so they wouldn't put casinos at the tracks), they view A.C. in a bubble. They're instead learning that the ends of monopolies can be a bitch.
At the same time, anyone who went to Monmouth this summer knows it's struggling, at least in part by Trenton's doing. The horsemen get blame too for failing for years (a fault of the ENTIRE racing industry) to ever really cultivate new racing customers. The scraps they'd get from a "Yes" vote on Tuesday, to me, seem to leave it shortchanged, no matter Monday's backroom, last-minute deal for the Big M's operator to give the thoroughbred interests a bigger cut...IF...he gets a casino.
And, at that, I'd rather not see a Jersey City casino cannibalize one at the Meadowlands or turn the City into A.C. North with a vacant 40-story tower after money disappears with all sorts of graft, leaving taxpayers holding the bag.
If Trenton gets it's act together and tells the A.C. lobby to shut up (after four decades they've learned little), legislators can then come back with a workable plan in a year or two that both the thoroughbred and standardbred operators want and that could prop up the state's breeding and racing program, via Station Casinos-style racinos found in our neighboring states.
I'd rather take my chances, too, were I operating a track, seeing what shakes out with the Oakland Raiders' potential move to Las Vegas. If that happens, the NFL would have zero leg to stand on in opposing sports betting in NJ, which is something we all want and I posit could happen sooner than any revenue benefit from two No. Jersey casinos. Sports betting would be a boon to the tracks AND A.C.
It's a "NO" vote for me on Tuesday and may -- much as NY and PA racino operators funded the no-casino TV and radio ads in NJ the last several months -- be time for A.C. and the horsemen to pool some money together to silently fund ads pushing for the Las Vegas Raiders.
On the heels of a 158% return on Friday's $50 investment, I have three horses in Saturday's Breeders Cup that bettors might ignore but who could produce a handsome profit at minimal cost and perhaps land me in the National Handicapping Championship (NHC) in January.
Tamarkuz did exactly as expected on Friday and paid $129 on our $10 win wager in the dirt mile. I unfortunately turned down advice to use Gun Runner in the exacta (paid 50-to-1) but look ahead.
In my preview on Thursday, I noted a $150 bankroll and maybe more in the event of a decent Friday score, but for the sake of readers held to a C-note, I'm reverting back to $100 worth of wagers on Saturday, centering on three key horses, listed in sequential order.
Ambitious Brew (10-to-1) is my top choice in Race 7, the Turf Sprint.
On another track this might not be the case, but Santa Anita's downhill turf course has generally favored horses with experience over the 6-and-a-half furlong route that starts atop a hill, turns right, crosses over a small dirt strip turning for home, and produces blazing fractions. It's perhaps the most interesting race in all of North America.
Brew drew post 10 in a 14-horse field that'll fly home in about 1:11 or less but is extremely deep and puzzling. Candidly, I toss European horses from the race for lack of experience on this type of track, and think the U.S.-based runners have a distinct edge, and especially those with past tries on the surface. Plus, the snobbier set among Breeders Cup handicappers may summarily dismiss a U.S. horse, so we'll get at least 10-to-1 odds.
Outer draws are generally favorable, and here jockey Mike Smith gets a great spot inside three contenders who either prefer to run late or are cutting back in distance. If Smith can get him into 4th or 5th at the end of the downhill and let Pure Sensation (1), Obviously (2) and Mongolian Saturday (3) knock each other silly the first half mile, then look out.
I think Brew's got home field advantage, with 5 wins in 10 tries on the downhill.
Mondialiste (15-to-1) has a serious shot in Race 9, the Longines BC Turf.
Ask anyone I know and they'll tell you I think marathon turf races are cheap claiming horses dressed as champions (since the paces tend to be dawdling), but here people need to keep an eye on Flintshire, one of the best racers on four legs.
I had the pleasure of seeing him in person at Saratoga this summer, and he's definitely one for the ages, having won about $9 million on the track by age 6.
He's the 5-to-2 favorite and basically got a paid second-place workout in his prior race, where he loped along and got beat by a really game horse (#5, Ectot, 8-to-1)on a really yielding turf track.
Nonetheless, I think he's vulnerable here and may get softened up a bit by Ectot and local horse Ashleyluvssugar (15-to-1) in the early stages, setting up for a horse that I backed heavily in the 2015 Breeders Cup Mile but finished second after getting set so far back early by his jockey.
In my opinion, Mondialiste may be the best turf horse in the field tomorrow, and will certainly appreciate added distance after mostly running at just a mile.
Look for him to sit mid-to-rear of the pack for a bit, save ground, and look for an opening in the stretch before rolling home at a square price, probably around his morning-line odds.
Gomo (20-to-1) is perhaps even more extreme, yet I love her chances in Race 10, the Filly and Mare Sprint, at seven-eights of a mile.
There's no clear goddess in this 13-horse field, as far as I'm concerned, and so I went looking for an outsider who at least once showed a really big race, has a bit of local (Santa Anita) experience, and is likely to get dismissed by the bettors.
A 31-to-1 overlay on the odds board at www.publichandicapper.com (I was 1 of only 23 backers, out of around 900 players, as of 10 p.m. ET on Friday) suggests very few think she has a shot, but a few angles tell me otherwise.
Gomo is a Grade 1 winner. Granted, that came last fall as a 2-year-old on a wet track in the Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland, and she has had only two races since, but she showed clear talent and put in a tremendous effort even without being prompted in the Unzip Me Stakes on October 1 at Santa Anita. For my money, the effort in the video here shows she was sharp off a 6-month layoff and probably could have beaten the field if prompted, but was using that race for a Breeders prep.
And maybe this is something only a long-shot player like me could enjoy, but local trainer Doug O'Neill might have found a vulnerable enough field to steal this one, and I believe Gomo's jockey Mario Gutierrez's best of 3 opportunities to score on Saturday's Breeders Cup card.
IF somehow I'm correct on Gomo, I might have an outside shot at sneaking up toward a Top 2 finish and NHC berth in the finale to Public Handicapper's season-long contest. A win by another of my top three choices certainly would advance that prospect.
Otherwise, for the non-tournament players out there, using any one of or all three of these selections could produce a decent profit on the Breeders Cup.
Here's my Top 3 selections for Saturday's 9 Breeders Cup races:
Here's what you get for $100 of bankroll. These plays spread quite a bit, and all will key around my top 3 horses. Save for some Pick 3 tickets, I generally avoid races where I lack strong conviction, where fields were short (BC Sprint, BC Juvenile and BC Mile), or, in the case of the BC Classic, I think a horse (California Chrome) will annihilate the field.
For people like me crunched for time and on a budget of sorts, the Breeders Cup (BC) -- thoroughbred racing's Super Bowl -- presents a wealth of opportunities to build some wealth.
Over two days, horseplayers have 13 opportunities to make decent scores off of fully stocked fields on different surfaces and from several distances.
It's a lot to absorb and can get you to spend more than you may want.
Host track Santa Anita provides additional intrigue with its 6.5-furlong downhill turf course, which I consider one of my specialties and will be a big part of my Saturday handicapping and wagering.
My strategy and bankroll are modest: $50 for Friday's four BC and $150 for Saturday's nine BC races, with the latter subject to an increase if I can hit for something decent on Friday.
As a result, on Friday in particular, I will target my wagers around my top selection.
Tamarkuz, at 8-to-1 in the Dirt Mile (Race 7, 6:05 p.m. ET post), is my key.
In circa-1970s Battle of the Network Stars fashion, the Dirt Mile field of 9 this year brings together one-time stars who've seen better days with some other sorts unrecognizable to the public. Yet, it's impossible to look away.
A William Devane-type stalwart, Dortmund is your 6-to-5 favorite, but 0-for-3 this year and some smaller victories on his resume since a dazzling Santa Anita Derby in April 2015.
Second-choice Runhappy (3-to-1) is 7-for-9 lifetime but was unimpressive in his only start this year; plus the mile distance raises questions for this sprinter.
I anticipate a Bob Conrad-type effort with a rocket-start but where after a short distance the Marlboro Reds and a six of Schlitz begin to catch up on tough talk.
Third-choice Gun Runner (9-to-2) had the Sept. 24 Pennsylvania Derby gift-wrapped but drifted toward the grandstand down the stretch and was beaten by lesser.
Tamarkuz offers great value and I expect will maintain if not lay over his 8-to-1 line, since California bettors tend to over-bet favorites.
I'm hopeful for maybe 10-to-1 here for a horse that ran a good second to A.P. Indian, one of the best in the U.S., in the Forego in late August, then was barely prompted in what looked like a paid warm-up for the Dirt Mile when he finished second to Anchor Down in a blazing Kelso Handicap on Oct. 8 at Belmont.
I just think the horse is ripe and will appreciate the mile. To me, he looks tactical enough where jockey Mike Smith lets Dortmund and Runhappy beat each other up, then makes his move coming home and draws away, just like Mr. Kotter did to Pappy Boyington in the ABC clip above.
My only other "strong" opinion is Stellar Wind (5-to-2) in the BC Distaff.
The 8-horse field is loaded with speed, and my view is that Stellar Wind is capable of stalking or closing into frenetic fractions to win the race.
Wellabled, at 15-to-1 in the Juvenile Turf, is intriguing if he breaks cleanly from the starting gate and gets courageous on the lead, as he has in three of his four lifetime starts; but I'm never one to back up the truck on 2-year-old races, and so I have no strong opinions in races 6 and 8 and will mostly use European horses in my Race 6-9 Pick 4, hoping for a miraculous feat of hitting 2 "singles."
NJ Horseplayer's Selections for Friday's Breeders Cup Card
I admit when my handicapping and contest play stink, but there were controlled external and deceitful factors that played into my futile bid to win one of three NHC packages available Saturday at the Meadowlands and prompts me to scratch off the Big M's future handicapping contests.
It also calls into question who the hell is regulating these things.
As noted by friend and fellow Tour player Pete Rogers, there was value in Saturday's $400 buy-in tournament. Only 129 entries meant a 1-in-43 proposition per National Handicapping Championship seat, compared the about 1-in-70 for online qualifiers.
Photo courtesy of piltdownsuperman.com & Carol Lam - freeimages.com
On the other hand, subversively changing the rules on players midstream from what was clearly published in the contest sign-up brochure is an ugly business practice and yet another example of why American racing is losing customers by the minute.
There are constantly questions about product integrity, whether it's equine medicine and dishonest trainers, the greed of horsemen in each state in trying to ruin others rather than working together to save and grow the sport, or dirty politics.
The Big M, Churchill Downs and Belmont Park, either singularly or in combination, blocked the show wagering option to Meadowlands contest players for particular races...just for the contest, and NOT at the respective tracks.
So, if you were at Churchill Downs you could make show bets. This was not the case for simulcast bettors at the Meadowlands.
Show wagering, or betting a horse will finish no worse than third, is generally an afterthought for the majority of bettors. In most cases, betting $2 to show on a 2-to-1 favorite will yield measly returns of $2.10-$2.20, so the reward is not worth the risk when your return on a $2 win bet is at least $6.
The proposition is different, however, when in the minds of bettors with giant bankrolls a prohibitive favorite is almost a shoe-in to beat a far weaker field of horses. Imagine California Chrome coming to Monmouth Park to face $5,000 Jersey-bred claimers. In such a case, someone with $100k could make a $5k profit on a horse almost assured to finish first, second or third.
There's immense risk in such "bridge jumping," but there are also few places where you can make a 5% return in two minutes or less, and there are people crazy enough to make that bet.
At the same time, smaller-ante bettors like me can capitalize when those shoe-ins do not "hit the board," sending their backers in search of the tallest bridge from which to jump. (Disclaimer: I do not endorse literally jumping from bridges).
Such an opportunity arose on Saturday in the Ack Ack Handicap (Race 9) at Churchill Downs.
Runhappy, winner of the Breeders Cup Dirt Sprint, two other Grade 1 races and six straight during 2015, went off as the 3-to-10 favorite in his 2016 debut on Saturday. The Ack Ack field included five others, but no horses close to Runhappy's level of accomplishment.
I spent 15-20 minutes studying that race and tracking the show pool on Runhappy. There was significantly more bet on Runhappy to show than for any other proposition, and so I perused the field for a horse that could hit the board in the event that it just wasn't Runhappy's day and he finished out of the money.
I landed on #6, Schivarelli, a hard knocker who won only as high as the allowance condition (several rungs below Grade 1) but had two decent races and a leading jockey at Churchill Downs.
Noticing on my 4NJBets app that show wagering was offered for that race, and in light of the Big M's contest brochure stating that win, place, AND show were the only contest options, I went to the betting terminal with a mind to wager $20 to show on Schivarelli.
The show option, however, did not appear on the terminal screen, and so I could not make my bet.
Sure enough, Runhappy tired in the stretch to finish in fourth place and Schivarelli finished third, netting an $18 return for each $2 wagered to show -- the highest payout among the top 3 finishers.
The Meadowlands' decision to eliminate the show option for that race, contrary to the contest brochure, cost me a probably $180 return on an intended $20 wager and has me thinking the NHC Tour, at the least, and the NTRA should investigate.
The Big M's NHC contest brochure amounted to false advertising.
Generally speaking, there are times where tracks announce beforehand that show betting is not an option, such as when a race has less than four runners. This happened on Saturday at Belmont Park, where Grade 1 turf juggernaut Flintshire was entered for a 4-horse Breeders Cup prep race.
Bettors know well in advance that show is not an option...and generally jump instead to place bets to guarantee their 5% return ($2.10 payout on a $2 base wager).
After the Runhappy debacle, I notified a contest consultant, who blamed Churchill Downs for cutting Big M bettors off from the show betting option.
This would not have surprised me in light of Churchill Downs being the most horseplayer-unfriendly track in America, but then I saw and showed the Big M rep a subsequent Belmont race where the key for show betting on the contest terminal (in an 8-horse field) was shut off, and therefore I am not sure of who's telling the truth and who is not.
I sense that someone behind the scenes disabled the keys (perhaps upper management or actuaries at the Meadowlands, IT folks by accident, managers of Churchill's simulcast feed), figuring most people do not bother with show wagers anyway; but here someone clearly made the wrong decision.
Sure enough in my bet just after missing out on Schivarelli I cashed on the place end of a $10 win-place wager on 17-to-1 Surprise Wedding at Gulfstream Park, who was very game and made up lots of ground to lose by less than a closing length.
Hypthothetically, let's say that Surprise Wedding won, and that I cashed a $20 show bet on Schivarelli...that would have put my bankroll at around $450 and in a good position to at least finish in the contest top 10 (i.e. for prize money) or make some big bets late on more-logical horses.
Instead, I had $89 with a few races remaining, which in the context of Saturday's contest winner amassing more than a $3,000 final bankroll is chump change. I took 3-4 stabs on some mid- to long-odds horses who were not factors to win.
Even after adhering to my 24-hour cooling off period before publishing, I'm even angrier today with yesterday's event than I was on the ride home last night.
I'm all for honest mistakes, but am done with the Big M and refuse to spend hardearned money on competitions where the host site shifts the rules clearly laid out to contestants on the sign-up sheet.
The NHC Tour needs to be more discriminating and keep a much closer eye on its tournament hosts, and less so on overaggressive expansion and cannibalizing the circuit so that a couple hundred of regulars can play for more cash in Las Vegas at season's end.
At the same time Tour members need to hold contest hosts accoutable for their level of integrity.
Your chance of winning is 0.0002%, but anyone interested in competing in a handicapping tournament, DRF Tournaments is hosting a free shot at a $10,000 paid entry, plus travel, to the 2016 Breeders Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) at Santa Anita Park on November 4-5.
As of ~noon ET there were about 500 spots remaining in a pick-and-pray tournament capped at 5,000 entries (one per person), so if you're interested enter here.
For any NJ Horseplayer readers new to the handicapping concept theme, the premise of today's event is simple -- before 4:20 p.m. ET, select the winners of 7 races and cross your fingers.
You will make mythical $2 win-place wagers on these races and attempt to build the highest bankroll by contest's end. Notional caps are 20-to-1 ($42) on the win end and 10-to-1 ($22) on place; so if the winning horse pays $100 to win and $50 to place at the track, best you can do for contest purposes is the $64 maximum score.
The prospect of beating 4,999 other players are meager, but at the very least one you can take advantage of free DRF past performances to break down races 7-10 from Saratoga and 1-3 at Del Mar in the hopes of accruing the largest bankroll by contest's end to lock in a sweet prize. It seems that DRF Tournaments also added $50 consolation prizes (in account credit) for the second through twenty-first place finishers.
The BCBC is a live-bankroll tournament where players compete for an estimated $1 million prize pool. The National Handicapping Championship (NHC) Tour, of which I am a member, gets more notoriety for its $2.5 million year-end tournament in Las Vegas, but the BCBC is hosted on what is North America's greatest racing weekend. The races generally are tremendous and opportunities to score major winnings are abundant. It's worthwhile at least taking a shot at today's free tourney.
If you do enter, the DRF Tournaments website is improving, but there are still a few aspects of the contest interface that lag others on the market.
You need to pick your top choice ("select primary pick") and alternate in case your primary is scratched from the race ("select alternate pick"), but be aware that your top choice will be negated if your backup selection is scratched and you will need to re-enter your top choice (and a new secondary selection, of course) manually.
That's exactly what happened to me this morning when my backup scratched from Race 8 at Saratoga, which is a significant quirk. Had I not been paying attention, my top selection (12-to-1 Baby Bear's Soup) would have defaulted to a post-time favorite that I do not think will win. This does not happen on other online contest sites; so regular players used to HorseTourneys.com or Horseplayersqualify.com need to be cautious in this regard.
Also, if unlike me you are not on the beach and you want to keep a live track of the leaderboard, in the few NHC-focused contests I have entered, updates tend to be clunky. Prepare for slower response times than on rival sites. It is easier just to check back at contest's end to avoid any frustration.
Otherwise, I appreciate the fact that the BCBC operators sponsored today's contest, where I am winging it a bit with the following selections. Good luck to all who enter!
Saratoga 7, #6, Skylar's Pass (12-to-1): A first-time starter like most of the others entered but with some snappy works and out of The Factor, who I remember as a precocious sprinter.
Del Mar 1, #7, Tiz Jolie (6-to-1): Prefer the rider switch to one known to like the front end in a bottom-level race where the leader could wire the field.
Saratoga 8, #2, Baby Bear's Soup (12-to-1): Front-end type who seems to like one-turn races and dominated lesser last out but who ran against tougher in his first four lifetime races.
Del Mar 2, #6, Look Twice (7-to-2): Similar thesis to Baby Bear's Soup.
Saratoga 9, #12, Sugar Mags (15-to-1): Several prior races fit with today's field and sense Joel Rosario can get a clean trip and close into a quick pace, akin to my score on Saturday with 14-to-1 Irish Prayer in the Saratoga finale.
Del Mar 3, #4, Friulian (10-to-1): Scratched from a deeper and tougher $80k optional claimer on Saturday for a softer spot here against only six others at the $62k allowance condition.
Saratoga 10, #7, Means Well (15-to-1): Colts Neck Stables is in walking distance to my house and I rarely like their horses when shipped to Saratoga, but the morning line is ludicrous for a horse who, although trying a turf sprint for the first time in 19 starts, I think will appreciate a distance cutback and a field rife with front-end speed that can melt down late; look for a late charge here to the wire to secure my $10,000 BCBC prize.
On the heels of calling the Haskell Invitational and Belmont Stakes winners, I'm making 20-to-1 My Man Sam the top selection in Saturday's $1.25 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga.
I was on the fence about using Creator again this time around, especially at a generous (and probably poorly calculated) 15-to-1 morning line, but side with a less-accomplished horse who has a world-class turf (but not dirt) trainer who is sending three horses to post in "the Midsummer Derby."
Chad Brown's other two runners, 12-to-1 Gift Box and 4-to-1 Connect, will gain greater attention from the racing experts, but for my money My Man Sam is an infinitely better value and has a legit chance of winning in a 13-horse field with several question marks in spite of Grade 1 stakes wins.
Here's my take on each of the runners (morning line odds in parenthesis), and similar to recent write-ups I will summarize I think horses in the field are capable of finishing. I'll also list my plays.
#1, Arrogate (10-to-1) and #2 American Freedom (6-1): I list these as a package, since the two Baffert's trainees will run like a couple entry, as I see it. I see a lot of parallels to Nyquist's bid in the Haskell Invitational, where from the rail he used his early gate speed to force the outside speed horses even wider into the first turn, which will burn most of them out at a mile and open the floodgates for horses with late kick to run on late, a la Ice Box in the 2015 Travers.
My gut tells me that Baffert views Arrogate as the better horse, and I think he's talented enough to finish second, and so he instructs American Freedom's jockey Rafael Bejarano to force the flow wide, which will give the lighter-raced Arrogate a clean rail run. Arrogate is sort of the "hot" horse and perhaps a late developer, but I sense will succumb to the classier Travers field with second place being the ceiling. At best, I both Bafferts are "underneath" plays. Prognosis: 2nd, 3rd or 4th for Arrogate, 3rd or 4th for American Freedom.
#3, My Man Sam (20-to-1) is my top selection. I will use him in win and place plays and wheel in the exacta, trifecta and superfecta. The pedigree might suggest a one-turn horse, but this son of Trappe Shot is just beginning to mature. Sam started well in the Kentucky Derby and made a decent middle move before running up on others' heels into the final turn and then flattening, then re-rallying (albeit far off the winners) in the stretch, but that was not a bad effort after the horse closed like a shot to finish second a month prior in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland.
Granted it was an allowance race, but Sam then made a nice sweeping move into soft fractions on July 23 at Saratoga and was eventually headed in the stretch against older competition to finish second that day, but I thought it was a far more mature and experienced-looking performance that sets the stage well to track the speed in the Travers and close into sharp fractions. Maybe he fails to get up in time, but of the three Chad Browns to me he has the best shot on Saturday afternoon.
#4, Governor Malibu (12-to-1): Best shot will be to beat Sam to the rail and track the speed, but I've seen enough here to think he's a cut below Grade 1. Malibu, for my money, looks like a grinder who may hit the board but does not offer win upside. He's the 5-to-1 second choice on the odds board at www.publichandicapper.com, which I wouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong, but this is a case of wishful thinking for a lot of folks. Prognosis: 3rd or 4th at best.
#5, Forever d'Oro (30-to-1): On my ride to a Long Beach Island weekend on Friday I was shocked to hear Monmouth Park's world-class handicapper Brad Thomas make this one a potential play, but to me this one's a complete pass. Trainer Dallas Stewart pops once in a while in spots like this, but there's nothing here to suggest this son of Medaglia d'Oro wants dirt or can hit the board. PASS.
#6, Anaximandros (50-to-1): A completely overmatched entry who from the gate can do nothing more but get in the way of the speed horses to his outside. PASS.
#7, Exaggerator (3-to-1): TVG is offering a 5-to-1 guarantee on win bets on this horse, but I fail to see the value. I loved this horse in the Haskell, but this one's proving that he loves the wet going, so dry conditions leave a question mark for the Travers. For my money he's the classiest of the bunch, and a mile-and-a-quarter is no concern, but I'm using him strictly "underneath" as he's only 2-of-8 lifetime on fast dirt tracks and I think that, eventually, a grueling 3-year-old campaign catches up with him in the stretch. Prognosis: makes a big late charge but flattens in the stretch to finish 2nd, behind My May Sam; will use in every "underneath" combination.
#8, Destin (10-to-1): Similar to Governor Malibu, in my opinion. Consummate hard-knocker who will find himself near the lead but start to back up late. I'm sticking to my story that trainer Todd Pletcher is a master at finding soft and winnable spots for his horses, as was the case with Destin's two stakes victories at Tampa Bay Downs this winter. Since then he's 0-for-3, including an easy run in the Belmont where he got nosed late by Creator. The Jim Dandy was another unimpressive performance. Prognosis: 3rd or 4th at best.
#9, Gift Box (12-to-1) and, #10, Connect (4-to-1): I'm pairing the two other Chad Brown trainees here, since I think neither will hit the board. This is a huge step up in class for the top two runners in the $100,000 Curlin Stakes on July 29, where only 7 runners competed. I'd put them in the race flow around Destin and expect both to flatten. PASS.
#11, Majesto (30-to-1): SCRATCHED; will not run in the Travers.
#12, Creator (15-to-1): The morning line is simply awful, and Creator is trading at 6-to-1 on Public Handicapper. That's a bit too short for my liking, but I would not talk you off betting this one as a winner of the Travers. I was this close to making him my top selection and am willing to toss his stale effort in the Jim Dandy on July 30, where I think his slight hesitation at the top of the stretch was a bit underplayed in the postscript to Laoban's shocking win. I could see him rolling late in the stretch and will use him, similar to Exaggerator, "underneath". Prognosis: Top 3 finisher.
#13, Laoban (15-to-1): I view the Jim Dandy score as a bit of an aberration and project he'll be greatly compromised by the wide post position. Until he proves he can stalk a pace, I think Jose Ortiz has no option but to gun for the early lead and hope he can dictate tempo again. Prognosis: Leads for about three-quarters of a mile in 1:09-1:10 and wilts. PASS.
#14, Gun Runner (10-to-1): Distance should not be a problem, but I just think he got some great "trips" in his graded stakes wins earlier this year and is a cut below the top here. I might have used him with an inner draw in the Travers but the 13 hole is a bear and I am reluctant to use. PASS.
Race 8: $1 Pick 4 -- 6 over 1, 7, 8, 10, 11 over 6 over 3, 7, 12 = $15 total (I will single Mohaymen in the Kings Bishop, as I think he's going to be a fabulous 1-turn horse at 7 furlongs to a mile distance, as well as Flintshire in Race 10).
Race 10: $2 daily double 6 (Flintshire) with 3, 12 = $4 total
Race 11:
$5 Win-Place: 3 (My Man Sam) = $10 total
$1 Exacta Key Box, 3 with 1, 7, 12 = $6 total
$1 Exacta Key Box 12 with 1, 3, 7 = $6 total
$0.50 Trifecta: 3, 12 over 1, 3, 7, 12 over 1, 2, 7, 8, 12 = $11 total
$0.10 Superfecta: 3, 12, over 3, 7, 12 over 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 12 over 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 12 = $8 total
