2018 Kentucky Derby Pick: Bolt d'Oro

On the heels of turning $50 into $400 with successful win and primary trifecta wagers in the Kentucky Oaks (and live to three runners in the Oaks-Derby daily double), one would think that my confidence is sky high going into the Derby, but the Run for the Roses is the proverbial crapshoot.

There's not another North American where you'll find 20 horses in the starting gate, plus I don't think I've hit a Derby winner since Street Sense in 2007.

Since then, I'd have had more success finding water in the Sahara Desert than in the Derby.

Yet it's no fun to be on the sidelines, and so I'll take another shot at two-minute glory.

Bolt d'Oro is my selection.

In a field this large, you're halfway home if your horse(s) can survive the first 100-200 yards and avoid getting slammed or cut off in the run into the first turn. Successful horses tend to accomplish that first, then get close enough to the pace without overheating or drawing off too soon.

And there's no more savvy a Derby jockey in the field than Victor Espinoza, who knows a thing or two about winning at Churchill Downs -- on California Chrome and American Pharoah in case you forgot.

Espinoza climbs aboard Bolt for the first time, which could be construed as a negative, yet I see it as an enormous plus for a horse that's quick enough from the gate to establish a two- to three-wide spot off of race favorite Justify's flank. From there, it's all a matter of whether Bolt's talented enough to close the deal and fend off the challengers.

For my money, his 8-to-1 morning line and late-Friday "live" odds of 9-to-1 signal that, as a win proposition, we're sitting on about a $20 winner per $2 wager.

Justify and Hofburg are my key "underneath" horses.

It's hard to knock a 3-to-1 horse like Justify, who boasts far greater "speed figures" than most of the field, yet he's also only had three lifetime starts and needed to win the Santa Anita Derby in early April to earn the points to qualify for the Derby.

I played him in a handicapping contest that afternoon, and his win in that race locked up my berth in the 2019 National Horseplayers Championship.

Yet there are chinks in the armor, the main ones being that primary contender Bolt d'Oro already qualified for the Kentucky Derby and was using the Santa Anita race as a tune-up and experimented with sitting back further behind the leader. I'm merely speculating, but it looked to me like Bolt just needed the experience, while the rest of what was a bad field let Justify have his way and made him look stellar.

Don't get me wrong, I do think he's a great horse, but front-runners typically don't win wire-to-wire at the Derby's mile-and-a-quarter distance; and so I think he hits the board, but underneath the winner.

Hofburg, meanwhile, is intriguing. You'll get every bit of his 20-to-1 morning line, but his first time against other winners -- the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 31 -- was certainly good enough to put him in the mix at Churchill Downs.

Here's a little on where I stand with each horse and likely Derby-specific wagers I'll be making on my annual $100 bankroll.

The Field 

1. Firenze Fire (50-1): I learned my lesson backing the great Lookin at Lucky in 2010 from the rail and he practically got run into it before finishing a game fifth. That was on a really talented horse, and I wouldn't put this one in the same category. Pass.
2. Free Drop Billy (30-1): Post-comprised as well, but I thought his 3rd-place finish in the Bluegrass at Keeneland on April 7 offers signs here that he can follow the speed-ball Promises Fulfilled out of the gate, avert disaster and ride the rail and maybe hit the board. I'm using him to round out my exacta and trifecta tickets. Probably 3rd at best, but maybe 2nd with a totally clean trip around the inside rail. 
3. Promises Fulfilled (30-1): Will be up front with Justify for about a half mile at most then fade. Complete pass.
4. Flameaway (30-1): Outran Free Drop Billy in the Bluegrass, but is doomed if Promises Fulfilled gets a better break from the gate. Need-the-lead type. Speed, fade. Pass.
5. Audible (8-1): I know that horses off the Florida circuit have done well here, and you're getting the best of Todd Pletcher's four, but I can't get past his post position. The five hole should be opportune, but in this case I think he has way too many early-speed horses to each side who could compromise his chances. Concerned he'll be far back and have a lot of ground to make up, I'm using him strictly for 2nd and 3rd.
6. Good Magic (12-1): Not sure why the two-year-old Breeders Cup champ got such a high morning-line, but I think he's in the same boat as Audible, though I think he'll sit closer to the pace. Same deal, using underneath in 2nd and 3rd.
7. Justify (3-1): Much as we saw with the over-hyped Oaks favorite Midnight Bisou, I've got questions about such low odds for a horse with only three lifetime starts on one track. This guy seems to run with great ease, but let's see him hold the speed at 10 furlongs and deal with 19 others breathing down his neck. Can win, and will use as one of three Derby keys. I just see him finishing third at best.
8. Lone Sailor (50-1): 0-for-7 since winning last September at Saratoga in a sprint. Won't get the distance. Closer with not huge late kick. Pass.
9. Hofburg (20-1): If trying to cash a big win ticket, this is the play. Last I checked he was 23-to-1 in the live odds, but that's misguided. His second-place run in the Florida Derby was checkered a bit by a suspect ride by the other Ortiz brother (Jose), who settled early toward the rear, made a visually impressive run in the backstretch and then, perhaps on heels of others, pulled back a bit and lost all momentum before re-rallying to finish three lengths behind Audible. He's a live long-shot that I'm using in the win spot on exacta and trifecta tickets. 
10. My Boy Jack (30-1): Deep closer who, if he hits the board, will do so from 10-15 length back. Somewhat useful for third or fourth.
11. Bolt d'Oro (8-1): Battle-tested horse who's making his third start off a layoff and gets a great post where he can factor if positioned off Justify's flank in to the first turn and backstretch. The critics may pan his efforts, but he was all guts in the San Felipe in early March and further back from a wide post last November in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. NJHorseplayer.com winner.
12. Enticed (30-1): One-paced stalker and I've learned my lesson putting stock in horses who look good coming out of the New York winter circuit. Pass.
13. Bravazo (50-1): On paper many will say "no chance." Yet I'm using him underneath on all tickets. The pluses are a Grade 2 victory (Risen Star Stakes), a real grinder's approach and a jockey-trainer combo that has won recently at big odds (Warrior's Club at 23-to-1 in the Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland on April 7). Write off this D. Wayne Lukas horse all you want, and maybe he runs as poorly as he did in the Louisiana Derby, but I think he's going to hang around the leaders for awhile and you may hear his name called late. Maybe not to win, but certainly to finish in the top four. 
14. Mendelssohn (5-1): Crushed the field in the UAE Derby in Dubai in late March, but runner-up Rayya's complete flop in the Kentucky Oaks is less than flattering for the second-choice based on morning-line odds. Now, he did win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf in November on U.S. soil (grass, technically) but I think he's going to be over-bet and lack value. I'll play defense and use him in the 3rd spot in the trifecta, but not a lot of confidence.
15. Instilled Regard (50-1): No speed, not a great stalker. Pass.
16. Magnum Moon (6-1): Will take money off back-to-back graded stakes scores, but he has shown little versatility beyond a front-end tactic and, if he gets the lead, will need to work extremely hard to get it before fading. Pass.
17. Solomini (30-1): One-paced horse who's a cut below. Pass.
18. Vino Rosso (12-1): See Enticed. Has three wins, but on the weak Aqueduct and Tampa Bay Downs circuit, a formula for Pletcher to satisfy owners who want to run in the Derby. I'm not buying, especially from far outside. Pass.
19. Noble Indy (30-1): Similar to Magnum Moon in tactics -- needs to get to the front -- and not nearly as good a horse as a Big Brown who won from way outside. Pass.
20. Combatant (50-1): Broke maiden at Churchill last October. Is 0-for-5 since and never threatened to win those. What changes today? Pass.

Probably Wagers on $100 Bankroll

• $10 Win 11 = $10
• $5 Exacta Key Box: 11 with 7, 9 = $20
• $1 Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2, 5, 6, 10, 13 = $10
• $1 Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2, 5-7, 10, 13 = $12
• $1 Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2, 5, 6, 9, 10, 13 = $12
• $1 Trifecta: 11 with 7, 9 with 2, 5-7, 9, 10, 13 = $12
• 50-cent Trifecta: 7, 9 with 11 with 2, 5-7, 9, 10, 13 = $6
• 50-cent Trifecta: 7, 9 with 2, 5-7, 9, 10, 13 with 10, 11 = $11
• 50-cent Pick 3, Races 10-12: 5 with 6, 7 with 2, 5-7, 9, 11, 13 = $7

Saturday Morning Additions, Thoughts on Undercard/Pick 5 Sequence

If you're going over to Monmouth Park for the live racing or to bet the Churchill Downs simulcast, here's a few ideas for the Kentucky Derby undercard. 

Race 8, Churchill Downs Stakes

• #7, Limousine Liberal (4-1) almost won the Commonwealth at Keeneland off a 5-money layoff and loves the Churchill surface and distance, and can win on a wet track. I'm keying him in small daily double and Pick 3 tickets and estimate he nabs 9-5 Imperial Hint (#3) late.

Race 9, American Turf Stakes

• #14, Admiralty Pier (12-1) is my top selection, and perhaps strongest opinion today. Also racing second off a 4-plus-month layoff and should find himself in a good stalking position off the primary early speed, #1 Speed Franco. There's a lot of big-time turf trainers with runners who can win here, but AP showed promise as a two-year-old and can score at a price. I'm wagering on this one to win, boxing with Speed Franco in an exacta, and using as top of 50-cent trifecta ticket over 1, 3, 6 and 10.

Race 10, Pat Day Mile

• #5, Mississippi (10-1) is a one-turn horse who tried his hand and finished a fading third vs. Derby contestants Audible and Hofburg in the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 31. I love the cutback in distance and draw for a horse who'll press the pace. I'd be surprised to get the 10-to-1 morning line but am using solely in Pick 3 wagers. I've got some "backup" 50-cent Pick 3 tickets using the 1, 7 and 8 in this race as well.

Race 11, Turf Classic

• #6, Arklow (12-1) gets the edge over #7, Synchrony (5-1) for me. I'm going "light" on this race, considering the complexity of the field and presence of 5-to-2 Beach Patrol (#10), who's the class of the field but hasn't run since the Breeders Cup in early November. The two I've sided with have two 2018 races under their belt and are formidable enough to upset. I'm boxing them together in a $2 exacta and will key them over the 1, 2 and 10 in $1 exacta.

Good luck to everyone this afternoon!

2018 Kentucky Oaks Pick: Monomoy Girl

I'll get back into handicapping-contest themes next week, particularly the Public Handicapper's end to its ties with the NHC, but in keeping with tradition will use my next few posts to assess the Kentucky Oaks and Derby.

My Derby selections will be up by Friday.

The Oaks tends to get short shrift, set off a little after 6 p.m. ET when the average sports fan is slogging through the afternoon rush. But if you're around the television on Friday afternoon or at a pub enjoying happy hour, the coverage starts on NBCSN at 5 o'clock.

Monomoy Girl is my selection to win the Oaks and certainly worth watching, particularly against second-choice Midnight Bisou, shipping in from the California circuit.

Monomoy Girl, NJ Horseplayer's
2018 Kentucky Oaks selection,
wins the Ashland on April 7

I'm generally not a "chalk" player, but in my opinion it's a two-horse race, though we'll try to cash in on a $50 bankroll, hoping to roll trifecta and superfecta winnings into Saturday's Derby card.

First a little bit about on the Oaks field of 14:

1. Sassy Sienna, 15-1: A closer/stalker type who can pass fading horses at the longer mile-and-an-eighth distance. Comes off a win in Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn, where the pace was blistering and she beat out another of today's runners (Wonder Gadot), basically by sitting closer to the front-runner. Ceiling is 3rd or 4th.
2. Coach Rocks, 12-1: Won the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks on March 31 after breaking the maiden in her prior, but I'm concerned about getting squeezed by the horse just to her outside who's a burner and may leave Coach Rocks in the dust early on. Think she'll have too much ground to make up vs. better horses, but could hit the board; 3th-4th candidate.
3. Classy Act, 15-1: The pacesetter. She'll carve out fast fractions before fading before the stretch run, similar to her two Grade 2 tries at Fair Grounds this spring. Using 4th in the superfecta.
4. Chocolate Martini, 12-1: I know I should put much more stock in a horse coming off a Grade 2 score, but I'm having a hard time supporting a horse that a solid trainer (Bret Calhoun) ran in three straight low-level claiming races. Current trainer Tom Amoss has her in sharp form, backed by two bullet workouts in April, but to me something's fishy. Pass.
5. Wonder Gadot, 20-1: She has hit the board in 8-of-9 tries, including three wins, though the last was back in December at Aqueduct as a two-year-old. This Mark Casse trainee has burned a lot of bettors' money, winless in her last four at odds averaging 2-to-1. With a 20-to-1 morning line I sense that many will have enough and she'll go off even higher, but she's very useful on exotic wagers. If nothing else, she'll get a garden trip as a stalker just off the primary speed horse (#3) and seems to work hard. I'm using her 3rd and 4th on the trifecta, and also 2nd for the super.
6. Kelly's Humor, 30-1: Passing entirely, which I may regret considering top rider Irad Ortiz is aboard, but zero confidence in this one.
7. Rayya, 12-1: She finished second in the UAE Derby to one of the Kentucky Derby wiseguy horses, Mendelssohn, but I'm inclined to pass on a horse that I think's going to take too much money. You could argue that a second-place showing for this filly vs. boys in the UAE gives her an edge vs. her own gender again, but there are too many things she's trying for the first time here -- new trainer, first-time Lasix, first-time racing in North America. Pass.
8. Heavenhasmynikki, 50-1: Will contest pace early for about 6 furlongs then fade. Pass.
9. Take Charge Paula, 15-1: Seen enough speed and fade from this one to know she's a sprinter and not a router. She had every opportunity to put Coach Rocks away in the Gulfstream Park Oaks and couldn't with the lead in the stretch. Will use 3rd and 4th at most.
10. Midnight Bisou, 5-2: The aforementioned California invader will take a lot of money off well-timed closing effort in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, but I'm using her solely underneath in my wagers, as I think she's best as a closer and will need everything to go her way in order to run down the field late and win. Can she win? Certainly. Yet California-based trainer Bill Spawr is 0-for-14 with shippers (he generally keeps to the state) and just two of those finished in the money. For my money, percentages are too low as a win proposition, but use her under.
11. My Miss Lilly, 10-1: Local rider Joe Bravo again gets the mount after riding Lilly to a win in the Grade 2 Gazelle at Aqueduct last month. But the field in that one was middling. I had second-place finisher Sara Street as a handicapping-contest pick in that race, and she almost won at 5-to-1; but both had to work hard to put home a 20-to-1 shot that day in a six-horse field. I'm using her solely on the superfecta ticket, fourth at best.
12. Patrona Margarita, 30-1: She completed a small trifecta ticket for me in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland last month, but finished third almost by default. I think she regressed over her last two. Pass.
13. Eskimo Kisses, 15-1: I was impressed by the ground she gobbled up late in the Ashland, but even trying hard she was never going to catch Monomoy Girl in that race. I'm using her on the trifecta and superfecta tickets, primarily as a closer who can pick up a share late.
14. Monomoy Girl, 2-1: For my money, she's heads above the field. I was at Keeneland and saw her Ashland performance in person; was a thing of beauty, as she secured the lead from the rail and never looked back. Looked like a paid workout. Visually, it was one of the most stunning performances I've ever seen, and I think her outside post isn't a concern. Two races back she came from seven lengths off the pace to win the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds in February, and she even looked a bit green in the stretch in her fifth lifetime start. Tactically, I think Florent Geroux just needs a clean break from the widest post and can settle third or fourth off the leader and mow 'em down in the stretch. She's also capable as a front-runner, making her super versatile. I'm using her as a single on my tickets to win the 2018 Kentucky Oaks. 

Kentucky Oaks Wagers

Consistent with the $50 bankroll I've kept in year's past, my plays:

• $10 Win 14, *if Monomoy Girl goes off at least 2-to-1
• $2 Trifecta: 14 with 5, 10 with 1, 2, 5, 9, 10, 13 = $20
• $0.50 Trifecta: 5, 10 with 14 with 1, 2, 5, 9, 10, 13 = $5
• $0.50 Trifecta: 5, 10 with 1, 2, 5, 9, 10, 13 with 14 = $5
• $6 Oaks-Derby Double: 14 with 11 (Bolt D'Oro) = $6
• $2 Oaks-Derby Double: 14 with 9 (Hofburg), 13 (Bravazo) = $4
• *Superfecta (cannot bet in 10-cent denominations via 4NJBets, hence scratching out this one) : 14 with 5, 10, 13 with 1, 2, 5, 9, 10, 13 with 1-3, 5, 9, 11, 13

When Contest Handicapping and Trainer Intent Collide

Trainers are willing to lose a race from time to time.

Well, except for Chad Brown, at least when I "bet against." 

At those points, it's best for you to the sprint to the window and bet his entries.

Your house will be safe, so feel free to go "all in" and bet it on the Chadster when I'm chilly.

Seriously though...

"Trainer intent" has become a bigger angle in my handicapping, and can be for you, particularly in assessing today's "free" NHC Tour qualification tournament.

I have zero inside knowledge, but often consider why a trainer will picks a certain spot to run his or her horse. Once in awhile you'll get bits of information from an on-track interview on TVG, a track's in-house feed or on social media.

Yet otherwise, we're often left to speculate.

In the context of a handicapping contest, I usually try to identify the most-vulnerable favorites on the card and reasons behind those vulnerabilities, since the only way to make waves in a handicapping contest with over 2,000 entrants -- many shooting for huge long-shots -- is to find a credible few.

This morning was no different in preparing for the 12-race card, with one horse in particular meeting my core parameters -- an over-rested horse that's likely to be overbet and is using the current race to prep for an even bigger one.

Hawksmoor

This accomplished mare is making the first start of her five-year-old campaign in the Dahlia B at Laurel Park -- Race 7, scheduled to run at 4:10 p.m. ET.

This $100,000 stakes race will go one mile on the turf and has scratched down to 8 runners.

In my opinion, Hawksmoor will be sent off below her 7-to-5 morning line, probably in the 2-to-5 or 3-to-5 range. So bettors and contest players alike will be lucky to get about a dollar of profit for every two on a win wager.

I'm not averse to playing favorites in contests or in cash betting, but in this case I'll speculate that this race checks off a few boxes for trainer Arnaud Delacour:

• Really soft field
• Preferred surface (turf)
• "Paid workout," e.g. a chance to pick up an easy $60,000 winner's share for owner Lael Stables, perhaps best known as the owners and breeders of the late, great Barbaro
• Easy prep for a graded stakes race

Key "knocks": 0-for-5 in North American races outside of Belmont Park,
1-for-5 at the 1-mile distance on turf, and prepping for a bigger future race

Hawksmoor is entirely capable of a rout, even if not 100% on her game.

We're talking about a three-time graded stakes winner (Grades 2 and 3) who is three lengths shy of back-to-back Grade 1 wins last autumn at the prestigious Keeneland and Del Mar Bing Crosby meets. The last time we saw her was in late November, a length behind Off Limits in the Matriarch.

Rested...and Ready?

Hawksmoor was given more than two months of rest before returning to training on February 9, and she has consistently worked well leading up to today.

Her front-running style should play favorably under Julien Leparoux, one of the best turf riders in North America, and especially more with the scratch of 5-to-1 I'm Betty G, another gal who was sure to pressure the early pace.

There's a cheap sprinter shipping in from Penn National, but doesn't belong on the same track with Hawksmoor, who's nearing the $1 million mark in lifetime winnings in just three years.

One could argue that all of the other runners fit the same profile, though I'm willing to bet the connections are not as concerned with winning today's race so much as Hawksmoor coming out of it healthy and ready for the Grade 3 Gallorette at Pimlico on Preakness Day, as she's been nominated for that one along with several other top runners -- certainly better ones than in the Dahlia.

Broken Bridle Is Worth a Look

Figuring that Hawksmoor and the 6, 30-to-1 Tanya's Gem (the aforementioned Penn shipper), set the tempo, I'm playing a horse that should sit just off the pace, has been in the winner's circle before...

...and whose connections probably want to win the race.

Broken Bridle, the 7, fits the bill at odds of 12-to-1.

This five-year-old mare also is making her 2018 debut. She hasn't run since late August at Laurel, but has hit the board in 9 of 10 starts at that track and sports several snappy works in preparation for today's stakes try. 

She finished ninth of 10 in her lone stakes attempt, the Grade 3 Commonwealth Oaks in September 2016, but ran gamely and I sense is tuned up enough for local trainer Gary Capuano. 

And this is no Grade 3 field, except for Hawksmoor.

Broken Bridle is not only the kind of horse worth playing in a notional-money handicapping contest, as she'll likely draw minimal attention based on a so-so background, she's also a use on my Pick 3 and 4 wagers on the side.

No matter what happens in the Dahlia, I think it's important for horseplayers to think a little bit more about trainers' motivations for entering their horses and to consider that, often, the goal for today's race may be more about a better opportunity down the road. 

Something Funny Happened Along The Way To Vegas

Hey, there's a lot of time to kill over a guys' weekend away from our families.

On the 75-minute drive last Friday from Cincinnati to Keeneland Race Course with @RedRockOrBust, trainer D. Wayne Lucas came up as one of our far-flung subjects of discussion.

You know, the type of exchanges you'll never hear at the dinner table or on the long, daily train or bus ride commute from work.

Anyway, horse racing was the center of most discussion, considering our plans for two straight days at the illustrious Lexington, KY, track and a visit to the Thoroughbred Center.

I had noticed in preparation for last Saturday's NHC qualification tournament on HorseTourneys.com that the Hall of Fame trainer with 14 lifetime Triple Crown wins -- Oxbow, the last, at 15-1 in the 2013 Preakness -- entered a few horses at Keeneland over the weekend.

Our discussion speculated on his motivations at age 82 after an immensely accomplished career, as well as those of owners who hire trainers (and there are few in the octogenarian ranks)...not to mention why tournament players like us would jump to play his runners.

The latter, especially so, considering Lukas' mere 2-for-90 in stakes tries since 2017 and that he's not winning at nearly the breakneck pace of his glory days of the 1980-90s.

Yet as fate would have it, Lukas' 23-1 Warrior's Club -- the second-longest shot in the nine-horse Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes -- was the key to my earliest qualification ever to the NTRA National Horseplayers Championship.

I've earned my way into the 19th-annual NHC next February in Las Vegas, largely courtesy of Warrior's Club, but also 10-to-1 winner Spiced Perfection in the Evening Jewel Stakes at Santa Anita just 12 minutes after, and two short-priced favorites in the later stages of my contest.

My third-place HorseTourneys.com finish among 219 entries was good enough to get a shot at the $3 million NHC 19 and to put to rest any concerns about missing out for a third-straight year after qualifying for NHC 15 and 16.

Hey, Nothing Wrong With a Little Luck

"KEE 6" Contest Selections:
5, Conquest Windycity
4, Warrior's Club

The funny part is that Warrior's Club was merely an alternate contest selection after 15-1 Shut the Box, my top pick and a key in my contest preparation, was a pre-race scratch.

Yet, I had to make Warrior's Club a main contest play after subconsciously punching him as a single in the final leg of my separate Pick 3 ticket -- one that was worth $497 if he miraculously won the race.

In all honesty, I intended to use another horse -- one that ultimately did not hit the board in the Commonwealth Stakes. My contest card proves that, as I used Conquest Windycity in one of my two tournament plays.

Instead, Warrior's Club got a perfect trip under jockey Luis Contreras to pay $48.80 to win (capped at $42 for contest purposes). Not too shabby.

Karma Continues

The next (of 12) contest races vaulted me to the top of the leader board, as Spiced Perfection edged out vulnerable 2-to-5 favorite Show It N Moe It to win the Evening Jewel three time zones away.

The combined $29.60 of win and place earnings proved powerful, as several shorter-priced horses for the duration of the HorseTourneys.com contest made it difficult for people to make up ground.

Among them were two that I had, including 3-to-10 Monomoy Girl in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland and 9-to-10 Justify in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, a key Kentucky Derby prep.

Combined, those two winners provided me just $10.70 of winnings, but that proved enough to stave off the competition and lock up an NHC 19 berth.

So, Now What?

NHC 19 is still almost a full year away.

You may recall that my last post assessed the new NHC Tour points accrual structure and how it favors high-volume players.

Contemplating what I should do now that my NHC spot is assured, yet 10 months from now, I'll revisit that theme next time around.

A deeper reading of the rules structure uncovered some interesting opportunities, even for the weekend player like me who generally lacks the volume of play as full-timers on the NHC circuit.

What's the Point? Tackling the New NHC Scoring System

As a part-time tournament horseplayer, accruing NHC Tour leaderboard points never meant that much to me, as the system clearly favors full-timers who pony up stacks of cash for multiple entries in online qualifiers or travel extensively for on-track contests.

The NHC Tour is a churn-based business, and most of us recognize and accept that, as it caters -- whether fairly or not as an assessment of the best handicappers -- to the volume player.

Changes in Tour points allocation for 2018 make that abundantly clear.

Folks like me who play for entertainment purposes and aren't double- and triple-entered in handicapping tournaments each weekend can't compete for year-end cash prizes for landing in the Top 20 of the Tour leaderboard, let alone make the Top 150. Those inside that latter benchmark make the $2.9 million NHC championship each February in Las Vegas, regardless of whether they've won a tournament outright or not. The reward is consistency over a full season, and it's enough of a carrot for some players to play in more tournaments.

Locally, two friends made it on points -- Steve Fitzpatrick, a part-timer like me who executed extremely well in Monmouth Park on-track tournaments and within a rational budget to tie for 101st on points, and Frank Gryboski via a late-season push to qualify on points; he turned that into a 20th-place finish at the NHC for a decent paycheck.

I just missed out, finishing 172nd in points with three consecutive Top 10 finishes in online tournaments from Dec. 3-15. If only Whatta Girl (#7) had passed two others in the stretch in an inconsequential Sunday allowance race at Woodbine, I'd have taken down the Horseplayers.com qualifier that afternoon and made it to Vegas without having to accrue Tour points. 

It cost me only, and exactly, $257 of entertainment to pick up about 5,000 points in those three qualifiers, though I couldn't convert in a few $50 and $100 online tournaments thereafter to crack the Top 150, and I wasn't going to spend a ton on an investment -- really a sunken cost -- into something with questionable economic value and with 1-in-700 odds of the top prize. 

Plus, as the NHC Tour still hasn't broken the $3 million purse value despite having 100 more qualifiers to Las Vegas than just three years ago, I've got my doubts about a presumably high takeout that more than a few followers have addressed online. To me, it begs the question of whether the Tour is truly growing (i.e. more players qualifying for Vegas but a relatively static total purse and top prize) and has a true value proposition that's largely being return to the players. Or are members funding NTRA salaries and industry lobbying?

It also raises some questions about three notable changes in the Tour's leaderboard-points system:

• Points accrual will expand to each player's 7 top tournament scores instead of 6.
• "Free" NHC qualifiers that host more than 1,000 players will cap the Tour-point payout to the 100 top finishers, rather than to the top 10% for such tournaments. 
• Creation of a "separate" Top 50 leaderboard for those who've yet to directly qualify for Vegas by winning a qualifying tournament.

Top 7 vs. Top 6 Scores

Adding yet another tournament score will widen the chasm between full- and part-time players. 

In 2017, it took 18,825 Tour points, and who knows how much money, to win the regular-season scoring title, worth a $100,000 prize and potential $2 million bonus for winning the NHC in Vegas (an annuity at that, not an outright lump-sum payout). Surely it takes a lot of great handicapping to accrue that many points, but probably also a good chunk of change to accomplish. If we average that total out across 7 events, it'll take about 22,000 points to win it in 2018.

Is it worth the expense to get there? Maybe for some. Definitely not for me and almost certainly not for all but a few hardcore NHC Tour members.

Less Points for Freebies

I'll use yesterday's first NHC Tour Free Contest as an example of the effect of a rule change to reward only the top 100 finishers -- no longer the top 10% -- with points in tournaments with 1,000+ players.

I finished 54th out of 1,920 players. Not a bad start to the year, and no out-of-pocket cost, with this being 1 of 5 "free" tournaments hosted by the NHC for our $50 annual membership.

For my effort, I receive 1,569 Tour points based on this season's calculator with a 1,000-player cap.

In 2017, I'd have gotten 2,255 Tour points -- about 700 more.

At the same time, 92 players (finishers 101-192) who would have received Tour points last season get a goose egg in 2018's format.

So, sorry Mark Richards. The Tour's giving you zero points on the 2018 calculator for your 101st-place finish vs. 1,594 in 2017.

Based on this, it's clear that Tour rule makers want to reward -- or bleed dry -- the players willing to spend $1,000 or more a weekend in travel and tournament entry fees at tracks across the U.S., or who wouldn't blush at spending $500 or more to enter a "more-exclusive" online contest. Or who participate in both at the same time.

I don't necessarily understand the rationale of curbing the reward of mythical points with zero economic value but that might entice a player (like me at the end of 2017) to fork over some money to online-contest venues to play in more tournaments. But whatevuh...

Separate Top 50 Leaderboard

To me, this is sort of a wash, since about 50 Tour players always end up ranking in the Top 150 of the year-end points leaderboard and, by that virtue, qualify for Vegas regardless. 

Admittedly, I don't know the first
thing about Vonnegut either

Similar to my other rather unscientific opinions, this probably helps the high-volume player over weekend or sporadic Tour members.

It's akin to Rodney Dangerfield telling his hired team of writers in the movie "Back to School" to add another 100 pages to a 600-page report to turn that B+ paper into an A.

If the NHC's new take on Tour points is volume, then have at it hoss!

Maybe that 500-point finish gets you that coveted 7th score that was erased in 2017 but is counted and vaults you to Las Vegas in 2018. If so, congrats!

Otherwise, it's hard to see the value of the 2018 changes to grow the sport, which should be the overarching theme of the rules committee.

Let us know what you think.

It Pays to Keep (Track of) Good Company

For lack of time and involvement on the handicapping-contest circuit, I've been on the writing sidelines for many months. But laid up sick at home today, I've got some thoughts that I've been sitting on since an Oct. 15 qualifier at Monmouth Park that could help you in multi-track competitions akin to the NHC.

It centers on "common races" -- a concept that I hear a lot in passing, usually on TVG or the NYRA show that's playing in the background at home while making dinner or doing chores. Often those shows are good for mental notes. 

Surely avid racing fans have heard it before. Show hosts or professional handicappers will note that so-and-so is live because his last race had a handful of next-out winners or some such. 

I never gave it a ton of thought, especially since it's often about a weekday race where the talent's thin and they're talking about cheap claimers. To me, the further down the scale of field quality, the less I tend to care.

Yet it's an angle that worked for me in identifying a 35-to-1 shot that finished second, scoring me $196 in a $10 across-the-board wager and providing dry powder to make a big wager on a best-bet later in the contest card. 

In a $150 live-bankroll format with $15 wager minimums, I scored early with a $12.90 winner at Woodbine with my second bet. After losing my next three plays, though still above my starting bankroll, I was too conservative with a horse that I liked a lot in Race 5 at Belmont.

Hannah's Smile, a three-year-old filly, was competing in a $50,000 starter-allowance against seven others at seven furlongs on turf. She wasn't a horse that I had ID'd pre-contest, but in four starts -- all turf sprints -- she was keen, including a loss by a neck at the same level on Aug. 3 in Saratoga to First Appeal. As that name rang a bell, I quickly researched that, on Aug. 27, First Appeal won a $75,000 starter allowance at Saratoga.

In short, Hannah's Smile appeared extremely playable at 4-1, especially after taking a lot of early money and at one point earnings 8-to-5 favoritism. 

First Appeal, a positive force
for NJ Horseplayer in Oct. 15
Monmouth Park NHC contest

With a $167 bankroll, I should have been more aggressive, but wanted to save for a big play on a horse that I loved later at Woodbine and settled on a $15 win bet that netted me $61.50 as my horse inched away to win by a length and a half. 

I foundered on a few suspect plays thereafter (the contest required a minimum of 10 wagers, focused primarily at Woodbine) and down to about $80 of bankroll with only a few races left in the contest, I noticed First Appeal's name show up in the company lines of a long-shot named Nile Princess, who was racing 10 others in far softer company.

Belmont's finale was a mile-and-a-sixteenth $25,000 claimer on turf, featuring three-year-olds and up who've never won two races. The 20-to-1 morning line and 1-for-26 lifetime record on Nile Princess clearly made that five-year-old mare and outlier, and ultimately she drifted up to 35-to-1.

Yet, in a turf sprint on July 13 at Belmont -- sent off at 43-to-1, Nile Princess at least made up a lot of late ground against a winner of two later allowance events at the prestigious Saratoga meeting, and so I thought she'd appreciate the added distance and was playable, even at almost double the morning line. 

Nile Princess made a bold late move to finish second, likely compromised only by the nine-wide trip from jockey Rosario Montanez. The $10 win-place-show wager netted me $196 to run my bankroll to $244 -- precisely the position I wanted to be in for my best bet of the day.

Unfortunately, my $100 win-$40 place play on Fourstar Crook in the EP Taylor at Woodbine did not pan out (he finished third). Neither did my $104 investment in Enterprising in the Canadian International -- won by a different long-shot, $49 winner Bullard's Alley.

The point of this write-up isn't moot, however.

When playing in a handicapping contest where you haven't looked at all 30-35 races from three different tracks -- an impossibility, and no different than the three-day NHC -- looking at the company lines can serve as your quick-and-dirty friend.
 

It's Time to Get McCracken

The pressure's on a bit after giving the winner and trifecta last year, but NJ Horseplayer is up to the challenge of a repeat for Monmouth Park's annual showcase, the 2017 Haskell Invitational.

This year's field of seven lacks a Triple Crown stakes winner like an Exaggerator (2016) or the star power of an American Pharoah (2015), though weather conditions appear to be optimal and the depth of the field makes for a challenging puzzle yet promising payouts for winning bettors.

We've gone into detail on each of Sunday's runners, but think it's a two horse field, with McCracken getting a slight edge over Battle of Midway. We'll use Timeline underneath.

NJ Horseplayer gives McCracken
slight edge over Battle of Midway

Sorry, New Jersey, but our money's not going to the Jersey-bred Irish War Cry, clearly the sentimental favorite and the top choice by the oddsmakers. He was an extremely game second in the Belmont Stakes and has been pointed toward the Haskell from the get-go, but his running style may be compromised by the rail draw, especially with a long run into the first turn.

Battle of Midway got serious consideration as the winner since he's got good natural speed -- an angle that typically plays well at Monmouth. But he's our second choice, figuring in the end that he will get run down late by McCracken, who earlier this season won a race at Tampa Bay Downs that's proving productive on several fronts.

Betting wise, on a $60 bankroll we'll play:

• $10 Win 5
• $10 Exacta Key: 5 with 2, 3 ($20 total)
• $2 Trifecta: 5 with 2, 3, with 2, 3, 4, 7 ($12 total)
• $1 Trifecta 2 with 3, 5, with 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 ($6 total)
• $1 Superfecta: 5 with 2, 3, with 2, 3 with ALL ($8 total)
• $0.50 Superfecta 2 with 3, 5, with 3, 5 with ALL ($4 total)

2017 Haskell Invitational horse-by-horse analysis

#1, Irish War Cry (5-2): The sentimental choice as a New Jersey-bred and owned by the granddaughter of the man for whom this race is named, and likely the post-time favorite. Drawing the rail, however, could be a big detriment. The only time he won when off the pace was in the Wood Memorial in April, where he beat a front-runner who has since come back unimpressively with a third-place showing on July 8 against lesser company. Jockey Rajiv Maragh is going to have to choose between working hard to get the lead vs. the two horses directly to his outside or hoping for a clean break, establish a close stalking position along the rail and save ground and wait for a seam. If anything else, I think his runner-up performance in the Belmont Stakes was more flattering for the winner that day, Tapwrit, who ran Irish War Cry down at a middling pace. Cautious about anything better than 3rd, based largely on the post position. If he's not involved early, beware.

#2, Battle of Midway (5-1): This one's gutty and a must-use, albeit "underneath," on tickets. He's perhaps the best gate-breaker in the field and I sense will easily get to the turn before Irish War Cry and establish the tempo. Based on his game Santa Anita Derby effort as well, he's outlasted other front-runners when looked in the eye. The question here is whether Timeline's connections stalk off of Battle of Midway's flank, thinking they've got a better horse, or gun for the front. I'm projecting that Battle of Midway will get the lead and outlast Timeline, but get gunned down late by an off-the-pace type. Runner-up and potential win threat.

#3, Timeline (3-1): The first of trainer Chad Brown's two entrants appears to have tremendous upside and has progressed well in going 4-for-4 since making his debut in March. Yet the question for me is his level of competition. It's going to be much stiffer in the Haskell than what was a paid workout at Monmouth on June 18 in winning the Grade 3 Pegasus at 1-to-9 odds. In seeing that race live on Father's Day, you knew they were using it as a prep for the Haskell. Timeline clearly has talent, but "the other Chad Brown" will offer better wagering value (i.e. higher odds) and has faced significantly tougher foes heading into the Haskell. Probably second or third.

#4, Practical Joke (4-1): "The other Chad Brown" runner, indeed, has been entered into far tougher races than Timeline, but I'm suspicious about whether Practical Joke is a two-turn horse and can beat this field. You can point to his fifth-place showing in the Kentucky Derby from post 19 and on a wet track as evidence of him "outclassing" much of this field, and he's got $1.3 million of lifetime earnings to back it. Yet a deeper dive into his eight races raises questions. He's just 1-for-4 as a three-year-old, and in that win on July 8 in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont (a one-turn race at a mile) was against only four others, and he didn't necessarily blow away from a 43-to-1 runner-up in the stretch. A highlight of his two-year-old campaign was a victory by a neck over horses that were 15-to-1 and 25-to-1. And in his Derby prep this April in the Bluegrass Stakes, he couldn't pass 31-to-1 Irap in the stretch. Go against Chad Brown horses at your own risk, but there's a lot to dislike here. Third or fourth at best, solely out of respect for the connections.

#5, McCracken (9-2): I'm not sure we've seen the best of this one yet, but sense he can steal the Haskell. The Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 11 is proving highly productive. Runner-up Tapwrit won both the Tampa Bay Derby and Belmont Stakes. Third-place runner, State of Honor, finished second in his next two -- to Tapwrit in the Tampa Bay Derby and Always Dreaming in both the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby -- and came back with a game third in the Queen's Plate at Woodbine last month. I've panned jockey Brian Hernandez in the past, but sense that he's got a live stalker-closer type here who can win under either a fast or slower pace. Coming in off an easy Grade 3 win at Churchill where he was squeezed at the start, McCracken is my selection as the winner of the 2017 Haskell Invitational. 

#6, Hence (12-1): Local jockey Paco Lopez will get bettors' support on the longest shot in the field, but I think the morning line's accurate for a horse that made it into the Kentucky Derby field by winning the little-known Sunland Park Derby in New Mexico, two grades below Haskell's level of competition. Hence got bounced around like a pinball at the start of the Kentucky Derby and ran a one-paced 11th before entering and tiring badly in the Preakness Stakes. He's coming into the Haskell off a win vs. lesser in the Iowa Derby and isn't the quickest of foot from the gate. The best-case scenario is fourth-place, rounding out the superfecta. 

#7, Girvin (6-1): It's hard to knock this one, who has two Grade 2 stakes wins and somehow lost by a nose to Bluegrass Stakes winner Irap on June 24 in the Ohio Derby. Toss his Kentucky Derby try, where he was among those jostled right at the start and knocked out of contention. I sense he'll be a little closer to the pace in the Haskell, which should play well on a historically speed-favoring track. Yet I'm hesitant to call him a winning prospect. Girvin and Hence are the only two runners where their past winning jockey is not shipping in for a Grade 1 race, which to me is a concern. Here's another whose ceiling, in my opinion, is to round out the superfecta -- maybe third or fourth.