Horses to Watch in Derby Pick 5 Sequence

In addition to the Kentucky Derby analysis provided below, here are a few horses I like in the Pick 5 sequence ending with the Run for the Roses.

Race 8, Pat Day Mile

• Top Selection: #13, Damon's Mound (20-1): The 14-horse field is fairly unimpressive. After watching all career race replays for each horse, this guy's first two stood out, to me, as potentially tops in the group. Boasts debut win last July at Churchill Downs that was eye-popping. Followed that by winning Grade 3 Saratoga Special in August, but after that is what's suspect. Trainer put Damon's Mound in two-turn race where he competed but tired. Then a 7-month layoff to 2023 debut in a turf sprint in mid-April at Keeneland. Can only assume goal was to discover what the horse likes, and to me it's sprinting at one turn. Will either sparkle or finish last. High reward vs. risk. Using with horses 9 thru 12 in exotics. Winner comes from the outside.

Race 9, American Turf Stakes

• Top Selection: #5, Johannes (15-1): Normally not a fan of turf horses from California, but this one has taken extremely well to the lawn after three dirt tries and scored dominant and visually captivating wins at three distances. Jockey Umberto Rispoli ships east with the horse and didn't have to ask one bit for effort. Maybe most impressive was win on quirky downhill turf course where Johannes was jostled, checked and surged with ease thru traffic to win going away. Just looks like an intelligent horse who gets a great stalking post just outside my close second selection, #4, Talk of the Nation (10-1). There's no chance the latter goes off more than 5-1 IMHO but there's still value. The favorite, #11, Carl Spackler (3-1) may be overbet based on his wins and by Caddyshack fans. But if you look at horses he beat last out, only one of the next six finishers broke his maiden and the others remain winless. Talented, but got a soft field that day. May do $10-type 4-5 exacta box. 

Race 10, Churchill Downs Stakes

• Top Selection: #7, Cody's Wish (4-5): Not a particularly compelling betting race. Only concern here is horse making his first start of 2023 after winning the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile in early November. Enters winning 7 of last 8 and the only loss was second by a neck. The last four were without lasix, which is why I give the edge here over #6, Tejano Twist, who's clearly on the rise and I consider a win contender. Nothing creative; using these two and maybe #10, Endorsed, in Pick 5 ticket. 

Race 11, Turf Classic Stakes

• Top Selection: #3, Wolfie's Dynaghost (10-1): Fun betting race since there's no standout. Speculating that jockey John Velazquez sets this runner for the lead and think he's got the stamina for the 9-furlong distance. Runner up of Wolfie's win on March 25 scored at big odds next out in the Elkhorn at Keeneland, which signals this guy beat a credible runner that day. Will use in exotics with #5, Up the Mark (4-1), and #8, Santin (9-2); the latter ran against Wolfie's in March and faceplanted out of the gate before finishing a game fourth. Is 2-for-2 at Churchill and can certainly beat this field. 

Main 50-cent Pick 5 ticket (Races 8-12): 9, 12, 13 with 4, 5 with 6, 7 with 3, 5, 8 with 14, 15: $36

An Angelic 2023 Kentucky Derby?

(Updated 5/6/23, 930a ET for scratches of Practical Move, Lord Miles, Continuar, Skinner and now Forte)

Kentucky Derby analysis is as much a crapshoot as predicting the NFL draft. 

Much as the Houston Texans destroyed months or even a year of "experts" 2023 NFL mocks by first drafting a QB and then trading up to the No. 3 pick, a lot can happen once those Churchill Downs gates just before 7 p.m. ET this Saturday to destroy overprognostication. 

It's best to take each of those distinct events for the entertainment value...and with a grain of salt. The same goes for consuming my analysis, though to me this feels a lot like 2007, one of my more successful Derby forays. 

Toss reason out the window and recognize the Run for the Roses is a one-off crapshoot of up to 20 starters, many with no shot and merely vehicles to fulfill some thoroughbred owners' dreams to say they had a Derby starter. Sure, 80-1 Rich Strike got extremely lucky last year, but he went 0-5 in subsequent stakes starts and his jockey is back to riding the lesser racing circuits. 

There are a lot of similar types entered this Saturday, but I suppose that's what makes it fun.

Now, I'm still a little bitter about Rich Strike running down my horse (Epicenter) in the stretch last year AND about top selection Maximum Security's DQ from first in 2019 but will give it another try in picking a winner. 

This year I give the slight edge to Angel of Empire over Forte. Both will be prominent on my tickets and likely paired with Tapit Trice and a few long-shots "underneath" as part of the trifecta box.

I'm not saying those horses will amount to 2007's top three -- Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin; all legends -- but much as two-year-old champ Street Sense was let go 16 years ago at almost 5-1, there are similarities to Forte, who is the 3-1 favorite but has more than his fair share of doubters. I speculate you could see 4-1 or 9-2, which is worthwhile as a win-bet proposition.

Here's how I rank the field, with thoughts on each horse. The pace may not be as testy as in years past, considering there doesn't seem to be need-the-lead types who'll set blistering fractions or elite speed runners like Justify. I see this as a more grind-it-out where my top three could outlast the field.  

Winner

#14, Angel of Empire (8-1): Trainer Brad Cox bring a runner with humble beginnings (maiden debut win at Indiana Grand last August, followed by two allowance races) but which has greatly matured with impressive back-to-back wins in the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby. Flavien Prat was his 5th jockey in six starts for the last victory and rides again. Gets decent enough post, has won on dry and wet surfaces and has been dismissed in his last three races (18-1, 13-1 and 9-2). Don't sleep on this one.

Trifecta Prospects

#5, Tapit Trice (5-1): This is the consummate Todd Pletcher horse -- get easy wins under a horse's belt at Aqueduct, Gulfstream (optional claimer on Feb. 4) and Tampa Bay Downs (Grade 3 on March 11) to build confidence ahead of running for the roses. Can run all day, but more of a "B" selection considering recent competition. Really had to grind out Toyota Bluegrass win at Keeneland in April vs. Verifying, who's in the Derby but is way too short at 15-1 for a runner whose ceiling is an optional claiming win. I wouldn't be shocked if Tapit Trice wins, but this $1.3 million buy may go off as the favorite with top rider Luis Saez. Using in trifecta box for sure but not as a top-choice winner.

#22, Mandarin Hero (20-1): Well, got second horse (Lord Miles) to scratch in order to reach the starting gate. I'll sprinkle into trifecta and superfecta wagers as, to me, it takes a lot to ship from Japan to the U.S. in a five-week stretch and be as game as he was finishing second by a nose in the Santa Anita Derby to Practical Move. Might be the best Japanese horse of the bunch, despite Derma Sotogake's gaudy UAE victory.

#17, Derma Sotogake (10-1): Begrudging underneath play on tris and supers, but won't back Japanese horses winning the Derby until I see it. Always a lot of hype that day will come, yet winning preps like the UAE Derby don't mean much for my money. Being a pacesetter could help chances.

Egregious Longshot to Use Underneath

#13, Sun Thunder (50-1): A horse with blinkers the first time in a Kentucky Derby seems strange, but not an act of desperation if you watch replays (my primary source of handicapping the Derby) and notice that no horse has been ridden worse than this guy. Closer types don't often suit the Derby and help to explain this one's trouble lines the past three ; but to me there's enough to go on here to at least use this bomber in my trifecta and superfecta plays. Finished 2nd to Angel of Empire in the Risen Star, where he got stuck behind foes before making a nice move in the stretch before getting passed late. The Louisiana Derby a month later saw similar as jockey Brian Hernandez again ran the horse into traffic before finishing fifth. Just sense Hernandez has to get lucky at some point, just not enough to win. 

Mudder Prospects to Consider If Track's Sloppy

#3, Two Phil's (12-1): Won the Street Sense Stakes stylishly (say that 3x fast) as two-year-old on sloppy going at Churchill Downs late last October. Failed to progress much first two tries in three-year-old campaign but ran Jeff Ruby Steaks field off its toes at Turfway Park on March 25 and should be near the early pace. Might have seen the best of him that day, but the combination of synthetic and wet surface wins makes him a consideration if Churchill's a messy surface on Saturday.

#16, Raise Cain (50-1): Dusted the field in the Gotham on March 4 at Aqueduct on a sealed muddy track against weak competition but clearly loved the wet going. Pass if Churchill is fast.

#4, Confidence Game (20-1): Seems like a one-turn (mile distance or less) horse to me but relished the slop in winning the Rebel. Yet hasn't seen the track since that Feb. 25 victory and he's a cut below.

Taking a Pass

#1, Hit Show (30-1): Draws dreaded rail. Stalker and second-tier Brad Cox horse who needed to show something in the Wood Memorial on April 8 and got outgamed by a 59-1 shot to the finish line.

#2, Verifying (15-1): Morning line is way too low. See notation above. Yet to win stakes race.

#6, Kingsbarns (12-1): Later-starting 3-year-old for Todd Pletcher. Is 3-for-3 lifetime including Grade 2 Louisiana Derby win but, again, another you might want to bet this summer rather than now.

#7, Reincarnate (50-1): Needed 4 races to break maiden at Del Mar in late November under trainer Bob Baffert. This guy hasn't done much for new trainer Tim Yakteem. Looks like one-pace filler.

#8, Mage (15-1): Will be wiseguy horse on the TV broadcasts for good second vs. Forte in Florida Derby, but loses top current jockey and I think was ridden hard that race and still couldn't prevail. Sense you're getting underlay (between 9-1 and 12-1), which isn't worth it in 20-horse field.

#11, Disarm (30-1): Nothing stands out. Alarmingly needed six months off after two-year-old win at Saratoga. One-paced runner. Of course I've been beaten a bunch by Winchell Thoroughbreds-owned runners from the sire Gun Runner, but I'll stand against.

#12, Jace's Road (50-1): A very hard-ridden third in the Louisiana Derby to secure this entry. Not a sharp gate-breaker. Can see getting beat to the punch by Practical Move among early pace then quitting.

#18, Rocket Can (30-1): Little to suggest more than a midpack finish. Confidence Game showed more guts when head-to-head in stretch of late-November race, and I thnk the Holy Bull win that followed in early February was a bit of smoke and mirrors, struggling to hold off second- and third-place finishers that went off at 34-1 and 58-1. Looked standing still vs. Forte in Fountain of Youth. Love trainer Bill Mott but not here.

#21, Cyclone Mischief (30-1): Earns spot in starting gate by virtue of Practical Move's scratch due to minor illness. Ceiling is optional claiming win in early January, the one time he got Lasix. Some early lick, but not much else.

#23, King Russell (50-1): Third alternate enters after Continuar's trainer scratched his horse, citing dissatisfaction with fitness. Not using.

Scratches (as of 5/5/23, 10a ET)

#9, Skinner (SCR): Is 1-for-6 lifetime and grinding out enough points for connections to say they attended the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Lost to Practical Move twice when looked in the eye. Why would Saturday be any different?

#10, Practical Move (SCR): Not enamored with some of the tin cans he beat in California, but advantage here is his ability to break sharply. Knock is inexperienced Derby rider Ramon Vasquez, yet if he gets out of the starting gate clean and works toward the lead, I've seen enough to suggest Practical Move is a determined sort who won't quit. Held off Japanese shipper and Derby second alternate Mandarin Hero, who I think is sneaky good and a play underneath if drawn into the field. Love the determination from Practical Move, but more of a "B" or "C" type pick in my plays.

#15, Forte (SCR): Five-race win streak started with the Hopeful last Labor Day weekend at Saratoga and included the Breeders Cup Juvenile championship in November, then he started the 3-year-old campaign by romping in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on March 4. Analysts shouldn't dismiss his next-out win in the Florida Derby, which many criticized as not the most stylish. Yet the horse didn't need to win that race to enter the Derby starting gate and still won with a wide late run and not tons of prompting. Edge vs. Angel of Empire to his inside from the starting gate, but I sense you'll see Prat track jockey Irad Ortiz's flank on Saturday and have a bit more late. Expect 1-2 finish.

#19, Lord Miles (SCR): Excited for Monmouth Park's top jockey Paco Lopez and hope he doesn't ride reckless. Should be in the mix early from wide post but seems a cut below. 

#20, Continuar (SCR): Japanese import who finished far behind Derma Sotogake in UAE Derby. 

Skippylongstocking?

So it's my maiden voyage to the Belmont Stakes in person, as my good friend Peter Rogers is playing in the high-stakes handicapping challenge and invited me as his guest, presumably for great karma. 

This year's edition of the Belmont has eight entrants slated to enter the gate for today's 6:44 p.m. post time.

I sense all the win bets will go toward #1 We the People (2-1) and #6 Mo Donegal (5-2). The latter's likely to be post-time favorite after sitting out the Preakness following his fifth-place Kentucky Derby finish from the no-chance-to-win rail position. The horse will be fresh and showed a good late turn of foot in winning both the Grade 2 Wood Memorial and Remsen at Aqueduct. NYC bettors will hammer him at the betting windows but the win odds should be propped up a bit but the big pool size. 

We the People is a toss, for me, at least as a win proposition. I think his win in the Grade 3 Peter Pan on May 14 was in much shallower water than here, though the field isn't great. 

I'm taking a flier on #2 Skippylongstocking. He's 20-1 but I don't think should be. I love the jockey change to Manny Franco from Junior Alvarado, who in my opinion did nothing but get this horse in trouble in his last two starts. A clean break and position off the primary and lone "speed" horse in the race -- We the People -- should put him in the mix; and past history has shown it's difficult to come from the clouds to win the Belmont in the fashion that #4 Rich Strike used to win the Derby at 80-1. 

My betting will be largely around #2 Skippylongstocking and the Ortiz brothers Jose and Irad, as Belmont's sweeping turns and 12-furlong distance are unique, so home field advantage helps. The other New York-based riders have lesser mounts and so I'm excluding them from win and exacta wagers.

Win Contenders

#2 Skippylongstocking (20-1): The horse has yet to win a stakes race in 10 lifetime tries but I felt ran credible efforts in the Wood Memorial (3rd) and Preakness (5th) to merit consideration. In both efforts Alvarado carried Skippylongstocking wide onto the track and lost valuable ground. That played into him getting cut off a few times in the stretch of the Preakness by a tiring horse and maybe cost him third. I'd be all over this one were it a rainy day based on pedigree but will take a stab here as I think Franco will attend to the pace earlier and the horse hasn't done anything really wrong in stretching out to longer distances from the one-turn affairs he won. 

#6 Mo Donegal (5-2): There'll be no value as a win bet unless the horse stays at 5-2, which I don't see happening. Plus, outside of a bad Derby draw, he did get beaten and outridden by a $160+ horse from the "also eligible" list. That's concerning to me for a prospective favorite. Beyond the rail draw, Mo Donegal had no real trouble in the Derby. Maybe home court advantage helps this time, and I'll use in exotics wagering, but for me he's no shoe-in.

Hits the Exacta-Trifecta

#3 Nest (8-1): The lone filly in the field. I don't think we're looking at a Rachel Alexandra here, but Nest acquitted herself well in the Kentucky Oaks, finishing second to Secret Oath. She got 5 weeks rest for this and I think can get the distance. I just wonder if she's good enough to win.

#5 Creative Minister (6-1): This will be the wise guy horse, going off 4-1/5-1. I picked him in the Preakness and am not bitter in any way about the outcome. I just feel he got a clean look at winning the race and just was a cut below. I'm not sure what changes in 3 weeks since the Preakness, where he got a dream trip and just couldn't close the deal. Will use underneath.

#1 We the People (5-2): I'll use him defensively on my tickets. Everyone's fired up about a 1-turn win in the slop in the Peter Pan, but really who did he beat that day? I sense he'll lope along on the lead for some time and begin to fade in the stretch, maybe good enough to hang on for a minor award. Watch the first half-mile time for clues. If it's 49 seconds-plus, he'll have a shot to lull the rest to sleep. Anything below that I think there's a danger he's out of the money.

Pass

#4 Rich Strike (7-2): I'll tip my cap when he wins. I just don't see it. Dream trip in the Derby and a rider not particularly familiar with the track configuration. And for a dead closer the Belmont can be tough, and his two lifetime wins were both at Churchill Downs, so we'll see if he's a horse for course.

#7 Golden Glider (20-1): Maybe wins a minor award considering the Ghostzapper pedigree. Can probably run all day, but how fast? Looks like a midpack runner and maybe a carousel horse type. 

#8 Barber Road (10-1): My ax to grind here is his speed figures look a cut below most and he's 0-5 as a 3-year-old. Plus removing the blinkers on a horse with no speed entering a Grade 1 is curious. Perceived rider upgrade to Joel Rosario but I'm not sure the horse's regular rider did anything wrong to merit losing the mount. To me this is a Grade 3-type horse. 

Horse to Watch on Undercard

Race 8, Jaipur Stake, #13 Gregorian Chant: Most of his success has been at Santa Anita but I love the outside draw and how he performed in the Eddie D last October from a difficult rail post on the downhill turf at SA. Lost to some tough customers there and I think could pop third start off a layoff.

Getting Creative in the Preakness

As bullish as I was about Epicenter two weeks ago, I'm equally skeptical since the majority of Kentucky Derby horses in the starting gate for the 2022 Preakness Stakes could bounce after running fast fractions in the first leg of the Triple Crown. It's the reason I'll target two "new shooters."

We'll have no Triple Crown winner with Rich Strike taking a pass on Leg 2, making Derby runner-up Epicenter an obvious and deserving favorite at 6/5. Two graded stakes wins ties for most in the field with 9/2 Secret Oath, winner of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks for fillies on Derby weekend. I expect them to be well bet and the top two choices.

For me the betting value lies in #2 Creative Minister (10-1) and #5 Early Voting (7/2). I'll use both extensively in exacta and trifecta wagers, likely with fourth-place Derby finisher Simplification (6-1) getting a share. Full pick 5 sequence plays will be posted on Saturday, so for now here's my assessment of the field. May it help your betting decisions or simple interest in watching the race.

Here's my analysis. 

(Notations next to morning-line odds: EE = Early or else; E = Early/pacesetter; E/S = likes to run from the lead but can also stalk/sit behind others and pass; S = stalker that wants to sit midpack, make later run; C = slow starter, inclined to close from the back of the pack; NM = not material).

Win Candidates

2. Creative Minister (10-1; S/C): A birdie at Monmouth Park last weekend informed a close friend and respected horseplayer that Ken McPeek, trainer, was unusually praising of this late-blooming three-year-old with only 3 races under his belt and no stakes tries. Grade 1 is top-class and so Creative Minister's entry and midpack morning line signal confidence in this runner's prospects to win. After watching his three race replays, I tend to agree. Beating non-winners and optional claiming horses is nothing stellar, but Creative Minister improved with each race, including an eye-popping finish in his win on the Derby undercard. Look for this horse to break toward the back and pick off tiring horses midway through. I think he could also sit closer and stalk. Serious win candidate and prominent on my tickets, including a live daily double ticket with Friday's winner of the Black Eyed Susan.

5. Early Voting (7/2; E): A near miss in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in early April was as impressive as any Triple Crown prep race, and the freshening for this is a strong advantage. Early Voting was super game before relenting to Mo Donegal in the Wood in the final stretches, but man was he determined. I sense he's the fastest in the field and better quality than most of the front runners. The concern is there are 2-3 horses that will contest the pace since they have no chance to win otherwise. Will mix with Creative Minister in exacta and trifecta bets and use in multirace exotics. 

Second Flight (Exacta, Trifecta)

1. Simplification (6/1; S): Ran a sneaky awesome Kentucky Derby, finishing fourth after navigating early trouble from the gate, then flattening in the late stages. Where I'm most hesitant is that this horse has had a rigorous campaign to start his three-year-old season. The Preakness will already be his sixth start of the year, and I almost would rather have seen Simplication's connections sit this one out and attempt the Belmont Stakes in two weeks. Maybe he enters there too; but to me it's a negative sign when the primary jockey (Jose Ortiz) opts for a perceived better horse (Early Voting). That's not a knock on Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez. But it's a significant shift in the 11th hour; enough to turn me off as a win candidate. 

8. Epicenter (6/5; E/SE): Will get a great position stalking Early Voting, but I wonder if he'll be a bit gassed after an all-out effort to win the Derby. Even so, I think he's third or fourth best in a field where some don't have a legitimate chance to win. 

4. Secret Oath (9/2; S/C): The gal's awesome, winning the Kentucky Oaks in stylish fashion for 86-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas. So what's not to like. Well, the two-week turnaround and a third-place Arkansas Derby finish versus the boys on April 2 tells me she could use some rest, akin to Simplification and Epicenter. But I get that connections want to say they won a Triple Crown race. I just think three Grade 1 stakes races in six weeks is a ton to ask. Will use in the third and fourth spots on my tickets.

Leaving Off My Tickets

3. Fenwick (50-1; EE): Who knows? Maybe we get another boxcar-odds winner in the Triple Crown. I just don't see it. Expect he'll dash from the gate, have his name announced 2-3 times early then fade.

6. Happy Jack (30-1; S/C): No change from Derby opinion. Belongs back in California against non-winners of two races lifetime before stepping back into graded stakes competition. Blinkers on for a horse with no gate or mid-race speed is no help. Save your money.

7. Armagnac (12-1; EE): This guy did worse than Happy Jack in the Santa Anita Derby and San Felipe Stakes in April and March, then won two weeks ago against five foes in an optional claiming race in California. I just don't see how that equates to this horse trading at a third of the price of Happy Jack. No matter as both are off my tickets.

9. Skippylongstocking (20-1; S/E): Posted a speed figure exceedingly higher than his prior 8 starts in the Wood, finishing third behind Mo Donegal and Early Voting, but it was a non-threatening effort and he's otherwise 0-for-2 and nowhere close in two non-graded stakes. Early to midpack runner lacking stamina.

$50-cent Pick 5 Wagers Starting, Races 9-13

1, 5-7, 9 with 1 with 1, 2 with 2, 6 with 1, 2, 5 = $30

1 with 5, 10 with 2 with 6, 7 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8 = $10

5 with 1, 5, 10 with 1, 8 with 6 with 2, 8 with 5 = $9

Preakness Stakes Wagers (Race 13)

$10 Win-Place 2 = $20

$10 Exacta 2-5 = $10

$1 Trifecta Box 1-2-5 = $6

20-cent Superfecta 2 with 4, 5, 8 with 1, 4, 5, 8 with ALL = $10.80

2022 Derby Day Selections

Top Picks in Race 8-12 Pick 5 Sequence: Race 8: #2 Just In Time (3-1); Race 9: #3 Red Run (15-1); Race 10: #3 Jackie's Warrior (5/2); Race 11: #4 Tribhuvan (5-1); Race 12, Kentucky Derby: #3 Epicenter (3-1)

Bets:

R8: $2 daily double 2 with 3, 9

Pick 5: 2, 6 with 3, 7, 9 with 1, 3 with 3, 4, 8 with 3, 12, 19 = $54

Pick 5: 2, 4, 5 with 5, 6 with 3 with 4, 6, 10 with 8, 10, 15 = $27

R9: $5 exacta 3-9; 50-cent trifecta key box 3 with 5-7, 9; $1 exacta 5-7, 9 with 3

R10: PASS

R11: $5 daily double 4 with 3; $1 daily double 4 with 8, 10, 12, 15, 19

Kentucky Derby: 50-cent trifecta 3, 12, 19 with 3, 8, 10, 12, 19 with 1, 3, 8, 10, 12, 15, 19 = $30; $1 exacta box 3, 12, 19

Good luck!

2022 Kentucky Derby Field Analysis

It's been a LONG TIME since I've used this space, so welcome back!

A handful of friends have texted for thoughts on the 2022 Kentucky Derby, and on top of that I'll participate as usual with roughly a $150 budget, so watching a few hours of replays on the entire field saves me time in the long run. Feel free to spread the word.

I'll post selections later in the week on both the Derby and the Pick 5 sequence, but am inclined to call Epicenter this year's winner, with Taiba perhaps the only other contender I'll use on the win end. 

Thereafter I see a mix of five horses capable of finishing in the trifecta, and a few others that could complete the superfecta by finishing fourth.

Here's my analysis. 

(Notations next to morning-line odds: EE = Early or else; E = Early/pacesetter; E/S = likes to run from the lead but can also stalk/sit behind others and pass; S = stalker that wants to sit midpack, make later run; C = slow starter, inclined to close from the back of the pack; NM = not material). 

Win Candidates

3. Epicenter (3-1; E/SE): Best in the field. Smooth from the gate, can secure a ground-saving position into the backstretch and be on or near the lead, and seems to have another gear when asked in the stretch. Tactical. Geared down late in decisive Risen Star and Louisiana Derby wins at Fairgrounds and has enough stamina and heart to get the blanket of roses on Saturday. Experience edge vs. Taiba. 

12. Taiba (12-1; E/SE): As little stock as I put in fellow Californian Messier's (see below) win prospects, I'd consider going all in at 12-1 on this ex-Bob Baffart horse now in replacement trainer Tim Yakteen's barn. The Derby will be only this horse's third lifetime race; he obliterated maidens wire-to-wire on debut in early March at a sprint distance, then looked professional in winning the 9-furlong Santa Anita Derby, cruising past Messier in the stretch with relative ease. I'll speculate this guy goes off closer to 6-1 or 7-1 as he seems to be a serious contender. Owners paid $1.7 million for this one, and with "Money Mike" (Smith) in the saddle, Taiba's in a position to win. 

19. Zosos (20-1; E/S): Elevating to potential win ranks upon reconsideration of huge jump into Arkansas Derby on March 26 from $100,000 optional claiming romp. Making only his fourth lifetime start and has acquitted himself well to this point, including very game second-place finish on the lead in the Arkansas Derby. Kept working hard after Epicenter passed him in the stretch, which to me is a good sign. Seemed to be running straighter lines and like a more experienced horse in the Arkansas Derby. Intriguing. 

Second Flight (Exacta, Trifecta)

10. Zandon (3-1; C/S): I think the odds would flip-flop if you swapped post positions with Mo Donegal on Saturday; that's how bad the rail draw is for the Derby. To me, there are so many similarities between Zandon and Mo. Both will have to fire from the back, which is why I think a 3-1 morning line is too short for Zandon. I like trainer Chad Brown a ton and the course he has charted after a nose beat late in the 2-year-old season at Aqueduct in December. The 3-year-old debut in the Risen Star, finishing third, was decent enough; then he exploded late in the Toyota Bluegrass, though I think the track announcer's call about all sorts of traffic was overdone. Zandon ran in company but was never bumped or harmed, then got a clear lane through tiring horses to draw away for the win. I'll use 2nd through 4th on my tickets. Wish he had a little more early speed to contest the pace, but I'm not so sure. 

8. Charge It (20-1; E/SE): A really intriguing longshot making only his fourth start and that didn't run as a 2-year-old for trainer Todd Pletcher. My gut tells me to be patient and keep an eye on this son of Tapit in the late summer, perhaps at Saratoga or maybe the Haskell. Looked green in the stretch of his second-place Florida Derby effort but has talent and ran strong once straight. Visually, just feel he's not mature enough yet. I could see him pressing the pace and wilting, but will use defensively underneath. Good learning experience for later in 3-year-old campaign.

1. Mo Donegal (10-1; C/S): Such a cool horse with tremendous late kick. Figure he'd be closer to 5-1 if not for the rail draw. Learned time and time again this is the absolute worst starting position with almost zero shot at winning unless the next coming of Secretariat. Lacks gate speed, so hope he gets a clean, unimpeded break and somehow runs late. Would use bottom of superfecta at most, as even the great Lookin' at Lucky could do no better than 5th place from the rail draw. 

15. White Abarrio (10-1; E/S): Horses to inside in the starting gate isn't particularly fast, so I think jockey Tyler Gaffalione puts this one in the early mix and can gravitate toward the rail. Showed tactical ability in Grade 1 and 3 Derby preps at Gulfstream Park, where he's 4-for-4. The one knock is his one try at Churchill Downs. Now, granted, it was as a 2-year-old, but there was nothing distinguishing. Suspect we'll hear his name a bunch in the Run for the Roses but he'll flatten late at 10 furlongs. Could hit the board. 

Superfecta the Ceiling

6. Messier (8-1; E/SE): Perhaps at my own risk, but I can't take this Californian too seriously as a win contender in this spot, considering the lack of depth in Santa Anita's 3-year-olds this season outside of Taiba. I've got nothing against this ex-Bob Baffert trainee or replacement Tim Yakteen, but there's no way I'd play an Ontario bred to win the Kentucky Derby who beat some Cali tin cans in 4- to 5-horse fields. Could see being coaxed from the gate to keep up but to me distance a concern. May use in the bottom of trifectas and superfectas but nothing beyond. 

4. Summer Is Tomorrow (30-1; EE): Interesting early foot; might be the pacesetter and a potential rabbit for Epicenter. I generally toss UAE shippers and horses trying something for the first time (like shipping to the U.S.). Yet Summer handled two turns and almost a mile and a quarter as well as could be expected his first time in the UAE Derby in late March, wilting late in the stretch but holding on for second. If Churchill's a carousel on Saturday, this one might hang on for minor awards. 

11. Pioneer of Medina (30-1; S): Get the sense he's either a 7-furlong or marathon-type horse. I hated how his two non-stakes victories looked; seemed to hang on by a thread and run in place. But the more I watched his two stakes efforts, it's clear this guy tries hard and is the consummate plugger. I doubt he's talented enough to win, but he has just enough gate speed to attend to the pace, and there's no quit. Could see him finishing in the top 10; may play defensively in the fourth spot of superfecta.

Leaving Off My Tickets

13. Simplification (20-1; S): The bullish case for this one is a game, trouble-ridden win in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. I'm concerned, however, that the field was soft. This Florida-bred hit the board in the Florida Derby but to me he looked wilted, particularly with the aforementioned Charge It rolling by in the stretch. Just don't see the upside here and am inclined to pass. 

16. Cyberknife (20-1; S/E): Get the same vibe as Simplification but will be more forwardly placed. Weaved in and out during the stretch drive of his Grade 1 Arkansas Derby win, and time not particularly electric. Seems like he might have beaten softer to get here. Probable pass. 

5. Smile Happy (20-1; S): Not the sort of Derby horse I love. Won his debut at Churchill around two turns, a clear feather in his cap. Since then, however, a so-so second where he wasn't close vs. a geared-down Epicenter in the Risen Star, then had a perfect trip in the Toyota Bluegrass at Keeneland but finished second after Derby co-favorite Zandon blew past after fighting thru traffic. Maybe hits the ticket underneath but I'm inclined to pass. 

9. Tiz the Bomb (30-1; C/S): You may remember this one as the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf runner up in November that was named winner for bettors after Modern Games was inexplicably a gate scratch but ended up running and winning the race for purse money only. Looked atrocious on 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull Stakes and, to me, doesn't like dirt. Recovered to win two straight on the Turfway Park synthetic track to get to the Derby, but would rather play this one on grass down the road. Passing.

14. Barber Road (30-1; S/C): A plugger who does some late running and continually hits the board but hasn't won a stakes and seemed a bit outclassed in those. Looks like a useful Grade 3 horse who'll run evenly here but probably won't hit the board. Big moment for young jockey too. Pass.

7. Crown Pride (20-1; NM): Rolled past Summer Is Tomorrow to win the UAE Derby, but I summarily toss shippers from Japan in the Derby. Seen too many come with promise/hype and flop; and this is his third country and track since late February, which is a lot to ask of a young 3-year-old. So be it if he wins. Not buying here.

17. Classic Causeway (30-1; E): Been there, done that trying to buy into Tampa Bay Downs stakes winners. It's a second-tier Derby prep track. CC should be in the early mix but can see fading closer to home. Regular rider Irad Ortiz goes to Mo Donegal; signal he knows that horse is way better. 

18. Tawny Port (30-1; NM): Peachtree Stable can say it had a 2022 Kentucky Derby runner. Congrats. 

2.  Happy Jack (30-1; NM): Would be better served staying in California against lesser competition. Lucked into a dream trip debut win at 24-1 when the seas parted near the rail and the horse was ridden hard in the stretch. Then tried stakes 3x and couldn't stay within 10 lengths of the winner. Pass.

20. Ethereal Road (30-1; NM): Takes a special horse to win from the widest post. Needed four tries to break maiden, and is 0-3 since and was never a factor. Pass. SCRATCHED

21. Rich Strike (30-1; NM): Complete reach for a horse that was claimed for $30,000 in September and is 0-5 in a few miinor stakes races. Pass.

Hoping the Preakness Brings Honor to Racing for Once

First a short rant.

It's hard to get excited anymore about horse racing and is impossible to defend a dying industry that's so disjointed, mismanaged and in desperate need of a national governing/oversight body and legitimacy. 

It's an embarassment, magnified by trainer Bob Baffert's reported 30th medication violation -- the latest surrounding Kentucky Derby winner Medicina, er, Medina Spirit. 

I'm not an industry insider, nor gullible enough to buy Bob's "the world's after me" narrative. The excuses, damage control and broader indifference to cheating and deceit are an insult to mine and other racing enthusiasts' collective intelligence and denigrate the integrity of this gambling venue. 

I won't call it a sport. It's gambling and exists solely because of bettors who like the action and merely want a fair shake -- or the appearance of one -- when putting their cash to work. 

For me it's minor disposable income and hobby. Fun money. For others it's more serious. So to come up with excuse after excuse after excuse at increasingly more-regular rates is a disgrace. 

Bob Baffert should be ashamed.

Churchill Downs should be ashamed. 

Pimlico Race Course, owned by the same group with a history of chemist enablers in California, should be ashamed.

The NTRA should be ashamed, with its homepage completely devoid of anything matching its listed tenets. Advocacy, integrity and leadership. Yeah, OK.

Racing should be shamed in front of a national audience this Saturday in Baltimore, but it won't. 

So enjoy the hours of coverage, most of which I'm sure NBC will gloss over and give no thorough examination or criticism as an enabler while we get Steve Kornacki and his khakis giving some fakakta "analysis" because we so miss all of the nightly vitriol from the 2020 election coverage and can't live without all his fabulous charts. 

In the meantime, here's my take on the field for the 2021 Preakness Stakes. 

I'm unsure if and how I'm going to participate wagering-wise, but begrudgingly think the race runs through the "other" Baffert horse, 2-1 favorite Concert Tour, and whether others from a mostly B and C team field of 10 can pick up the pieces late after the Bafferts run ablaze and/or conspire to finish 1-2 before the Triple Crown circus heads north to Belmont Park in three weeks.

2021 Preakness Horses (Order of Preference)

Consistent with the Derby, I've graded horses A (potential winner), B (can win, needs some breaks), C (needs more than some breaks to win; can hit the top 3-4) and PASS. 

#8, Unbridled Honor (15-1): Putting jockey Luis Saez in the saddle is a significant upgrade in a dirt race from the turf-savvier Julien Leparoux, who gave this horse "curious" rides in the Tampa Derby in March and Lexington Stakes in April. The horse's speed figures are a cut below the two favorites, but he ran well enough to win the Lexington, had Leparoux not been a) asleep the first 48-49 seconds and b) followed eventual race winner King Fury along the rail instead of tipping 4-5 paths in the stretch. To me it was a poor decision that cost Unbridled Honor the 2.75 margin of defeat. I also believe trainer Todd Pletcher is adept at finding winning spots for his lesser stakes horses. This is such a case. Grade: A 

#10, Concert Tour (2-1): The rider switch to Mike Smith from Joel Rosario is curious, and a negative, as strange as it sounds. "Big Money Mike" is aboard Concert Tour for the first time, and all he has to do is gun to the lead from the widest stall and hope the speed carries. I think Concert Tour is way more alert from the gate then Medicina Spirit, and showed in the April 10 Arkansas Derby that he's not cool sitting off another runner and wants to head the pack. It's possible he does it on Saturday. Grade: A

#4, Crowded Trade (10-1): People will draw comparisons to 2017 champ Cloud Computing, who won at double-digit odds for the same connections and took a similar route to Pimlico. It's another horse with a beneficial jockey switch (to Javier Castellano from Eric Cancel). Trade doesn't appear to have much giddyup from the starting gate, however, and with sharp breakers to either side, I wonder if Castellano will be equally aggressive and try to sit just off the front-runners or settle midpack, as the horse did in both the Gotham Stakes and Wood Memorial. Castellano's a two-time Preakness winner, including on Cloud Computing. I'd be worried about this one going off as the third choice and think bettors will have to settle for 6-1/7-1, which still isn't bad but short for my liking. Grade: A-

#5, Midnight Bourbon (5-1): Smith rode this horse to a trouble-free sixth in the Derby, but I believe he ran worse than another Preakness entrant and 7th-place finisher Keepmeinmind. Bourbon looks like a potential speed factor on paper, and very well may be put early into the race by jockey Irad Ortiz, another notable upgrade. World-class rider and trainer, but to me Bourbon's not particularly fast nor does anything that stands out as special. He'll be near the front and could get a share, but I just don't think he's a classic-distance winning horse. Grade: B

#3, Medicina Spirit (9-5): If betting against, it's because he'll be uncomfortable chasing Concert Tour, assuming the latter gets the quicker jump. If he does beat Concert Tour to the first turn, it'll be interesting to see if the rash cream, pee-infused oats and/or Baffert's elixir du jour kicks in for the second time in 14 days. I believe he'll instruct both riders to seize the front, slow the pace in the backstretch with the slower starter carring the field wide to prevent others from passing, then see which one hangs on late for the victory and a spot in the Belmont as the other settles for second and heads back to California. Grade: C

#2, Keepmeinmind (15-1): Good Derby effort and one I wanted to translate into a Preakness win, but he's got zero gate speed and it'd be a lot to ask him to close with the same passion as in the Derby to almost finish 6th after being 20 lengths behind. Keepmeinmind competes. I'll give him that. He disproved my Derby thesis just a bit that he didn't belong. But a nonthreatening effort there doesn't turn this one into a contender on Saturday, and after watching several of his replays, Belatedlyinmind might be a more appropriate name. Grade: C

#9, Risk Taking (15-1): The lesser Chad Brown trainee to Crowded Trade, IMHO. A no excuses 7th-place finisher in the April 3 Wood Memorial doesn't inspire here, nor do pedestrian race times. Probably sits midpack as he's another with scant early foot. I'm eager to see him on turf, though, considering the sire (Medaglia d'Oro: El Prado). Irad's brother Jose gets the mount, so at least he likely won't be ridden out of contention. Grade: C/C-

#1, Ram (30-1): The Preakness as a first stakes race is ballsy, but that's veteran trainer D. Wayne Lucas for you. It's hard to put much stock in coming out of an allowance race (several notches below stakes grade), but someone thought enough to pay $375,000 for the horse, and with nothing to lose and the rail draw, an early bid is possible before a lack of class catches up with him. Grade: Pass

#6, Rombauer (12-1): The three or four of you that read this blog can ridicule me after he wins, but the odds are way too short for my taste. Rombauer finished third behind two good runners (Derby contenders Essentially Quality and Highly Motivated) in the Bluegrass on April 3, but the track notes citing he was "bumped" and "in tight" seemed drastic after replays. Rombauer sat third and rode the rail the entire circuit, mostly unbothered and leaking ground toward the finish line. His one stakes win was at California's lesser track, ungraded and on a synthetic surface. Grade: Pass

#7, France Go de Ina (20-1): Gets a great rider in Joel Rosario, but little to get excited about in this horse's 6th-place finish in the UAE Derby in late March. Nothing stood out there. We've been down this road before with the feel-good foreign shipper (connections are from Japan). If nothing else, they'll bring more integrity and class to the race than some of their key U.S. counterparts combined. Grade: Pass (but will be rooting)