Saturday, May 7, 2011

I'll avoid another "Dialed In" cliche

Anyone turn on HRTV this morning? Definitely not a cliche-free zone...

NJ Horseplayer, calling Nick Zito!
Dialed In, in my opinion, will win the 137th renewal of the Kentucky Derby. In the grand scheme of things, my selection means a hill of beans, but for clarity, I hope my 1-in-19 chance proves accurate.

Without belaboring the point, I just liked what I saw from Dialed In during the prep season, but what sold me most was the someone nondescript second-place showing in the Gulfstream $62k optional claimer.  In my view, this horse's ability to close against older, established horses into slow fractions is the difference.

I do think the Derby today will have hellish early fractions (i.e. 46-second half), much last 2010, which will favor horses that can rate or close and avoid trouble, and Julien Leparoux has ridden this horse masterfully thus far and is off to a great start at Churchill Downs, so I'm going with Dialed In over hard-knocking Mucho Macho Man and Nehro in strictly exotics plays.  In keeping with my tradition of a $100 Derby bankroll, here are my tickets:
  • Race 9: $1 exacta box 12, 6 - $2 total
  • Race 10: $5 exacta box 8, 13, 9 - $30 total
  • Race 10: $0.50 trifecta box 1, 8, 9, 13, 19 - $30 total
    • Coming into the Derby draw, I was going to go with Nehro over ArchArchArch, but did not like their positions enough to consider them as winners, but think they can finish underneath. And I think Derby Kitten, despite never having raced on dirt or above a Grade 3, will appreciate the distance and will benefit from the No. 9 post.
  • Race 10: $1 superfecta: 8, 19 over 8, 13, 19 over 1, 9, 13, 19 over 1, 9, 13, 19 - $20 total
  • Race 10: $0.50 Pick 4: 4, 8 with 8, 13, 19 with 5, 7, 9 with 3, 9
Take these with a grain of salt, and best wished on cashing some big tickets in the Kentucky Derby!

And wish me some luck in today's Breeders Cup qualifier at, which is a low-budget contest that offers spots in the $10,000 entry-fee tournament on Breeders Cup weekend.  The top 10% of today's finishers, along with the same number from two more qualifiers on May 14 and 21, advance to a championship round on May 28.  The contest features 5 Churchill and 5 Hollywood races.

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