Considering Contest Capital Preservation

The February Simulcast Series Challenge at Monmouth Park yesterday proved frustrating for NJ Horseplayer, in that pretty credible handicapping proved fruitless as I squandered my $100 bankroll to finish out of contention for a spot in April's invitational for 2 National Handicapping Championship spots.

NJ Horseplayer asks:
Can slow and steady win the race?

The first two wagers ($10 to win on 7-to-2 shots) were a microcosm of my contest outcome, with Hardrocker in Gulfstream 2 and Sovereign Default in Aqueduct 3 finishing second.  Down to $80, and intrigued by Roger Attfield first-timer Perfect Tay in a $75k turf claimer in Gulfstream 4, I played a conservative $5 win-place on this 13-to-1 shot who finished second, putting my bankroll at $106.

Exhibiting uncharacteristic patience, thereafter I picked my spots and made a combination of seven win and win-place wagers only to get two seconds and four thirds, including 22-to-1 Bell by the Ridge in the Animal Kingdom race at Gulfstream (Race 5) and 31-to-1 Key Victory in the 12-horse eighth from Aqueduct.  With $26 remaining and needing to make up quick late ground with only 6-7 races remaining on the contest card, I took two wild stabs in hopes of nailing a big price but came up empty.

The postmortem conversation with fellow SSC#2 contest players Terry "almost-lucked-my-way-to-victory-in-Saturday's-free-NHC Online Challenge" Flanagan and 2012 NHC qualifier Paul Zerbst, then over pitchers of PBR at Zachary's in Oceanport with my dad, made me consider...can a place, show or place-show wagering strategy work in live-money handicapping contests?

Based on yesterday's first 10 contest wagers and race outcomes, and assuming the required $100 starting bankroll and meeting the contest minimum of a $10 wager, here were the potential bankroll outcomes:

• $10 all show: $217 
• $5 place-show: $197.50
• $10 all place: $169

Considering my official bankroll was down to $26 after 6 fruitless win wagers, 3 win-place wagers and 1 straight place wager, either of the above scenarios would have been far better and, most importantly as I'm learning from playing in more of these on-track contests, given me enough ammo to make it into the top 15 and qualify for the April SSC invitational, or take a stab at taking down a contest where 265 players competed for a $13,250 first prize.  

In any event, hindsight is always 20-20, and there's no guarantee I'll be able to again handicap adequately enough to call 9-of-10 races with horses that finish in the money, but the data argue in favor of a conservative capital-preservation strategy based on either a combination of place-show or straight show bets. Perhaps NJ Horseplayer will have even more discipline next month and follow through with one of these strategies at the SSC#3 on Saturday, March 24.  

It's clear to me that $10 show wagers will not be enough to win a contest, and lacks the excitement or opportunity for braggadocio of "picking winners," but preserving capital for one major push late in a contest is a far-more attractive consideration than finishing tied for last again in an on-track live-money contest. 

Monmouth Park handicapping contest slate in the works

Our assessment last week of changes for the NHC Tour this season prompted a Monmouth Park official to notify NJ Horseplayer readers that the 2012 handicapping contest schedule in in the works and will reward at least 8 spots in the 2012 NHC in Las Vegas (January 2013) -- two each in April (Simulcast Series Challenge), June (a Monmouth-Woodbine combo), July and August.

NJ Horseplayer's crack
researcher uncovers new info

Sophia Mangalee, Marketing Manager at Monmouth, and her team are considering other avenues as well to maximize handicapping contest participation and give NHC Tour players in the area more opportunities to win seats in the National Handicapping Championship, including a live-season series similar to SSC, and expects to finalize the schedule by the beginning of March.  (Monmouth's hugely popular "Survival at the Shore" contest for the summer meeting was left out of our back-and-forth, though we assume (whether correctly or not) perhaps a ninth NHC seat and Tour points will be rewarded again in 2012.)

Stay tuned to NJ Horseplayer.com for more updates in weeks ahead.

Those of you with ideas for improving Monmouth Park's contest offering for 2012 might best be served calling the track directly or approaching Sophia at SSC2, scheduled for Saturday, February 18, but feel free to continue the discussion in the comments field below.  There are people in the industry eager for customers' opinions on how to improve the contest product.

Some self-serving thoughts I shared with Sophia:

• Keep the entry fees within the $100-$200 range
• Avoid scheduling NHC-based  contests on holidays (i.e. one on a past Father's Day comes to mind, where contest participation - if I recall - did not come close to matching the 250-300 for 2010's SSC events); perhaps holiday-based contests could reward seats to the less-seductive Horseplayer World Series
• Be more discriminating/selective about handicapping contest partnerships with other tracks.  

On the latter, I recall a summer 2010 contest featuring races from Monmouth, Canterbury and Emerald Downs where only 207 contestants entered between the three tracks.  In my view, during that sweet spot of the thoroughbred season, contest players are more selective about which contests to enter and which races will comprise a particular contest format; the aforementioned tracks featured extremely lackluster 5- to 7-horse fields of indistinguishable claimer-type races.  Running some handicapping contests around, say, the Triple Crown races or Breeders Cup may boost on-track handicapping contest participation.

We'll see whether any of these suggestions prove valuable to Sophia and company and/or fit within Monmouth Park's presumably constrained budget and business model for the 2012 meeting, or whether they even jive with the broader populace of NHC Tour players.  Again, feel free to weigh in with your opinions.

Assessing Changes to 2012 NHC Tour

NJ Horseplayer is predicated on uncovering deep value in both handicapping contests and, far less frequently (on account of my real world obligations), at the betting window.  With that in mind, Wednesday's press release from the NTRA touting registration for the 2012 National Handicapping Championship (NHC) Tour requires a bit of reading between the lines to decipher how the 2012 season will shape for qualifying opportunities. Here's my early read, again based on incomplete information and some back-of-the-envelope math.

The $5 hike in membership to $50 is negligible, as I see it.  At the same time, the Tour is cutting the number of "members-only, free online tournament" spots in next January's NHC to 10 (from 15 in 2012).  Public Handicapper, a cost-free venue, is picking up an additional seat and will now offer two NHC spots to Tour members.  Still, 4 fewer pieces of swag against a membership fee hike is a loss, whether or not these spots are akin to winning the lottery.

Early read on 2012 NHC

The Tour is clearly emphasizing increased participation from Tour players both online and at the track, considering the top 100 players in the year-end Tour standings will be guaranteed entry to the 2013 NHC Finals; no longer just the top finisher.  The Tour also more than tripled the regular season standings-based purse to $250k, with the winners of the first- and second-half season standings winning $50k each, and the year-end standings leader winning $150k  -- double what 2011 Tour Champion Paul Shurman won -- based on a member's top 6 scores (1 must come from a live, in-person event; i.e. on-track, live-money contests).  The NTRA's press release suggests that scoring points during live-money events will be a must, though there are only a handful of tracks that seem to have solidified their tournament schedules this early in the year.

Assuming the Tour will again publicize a $2m purse and keep the NHC at a target of 500 players, and citing figures on the early 2012 calendar posted to the NHC Tour's website, NHCQualify.com will play a major role in 2012, granting 120 NHC seats.  This is not publicized on Qualify's website, but an unofficial quick tally of the Tour calendar puts the figure at around 25% of Championship spots.

What is known, however, is that the February round of qualifying tournaments on NHCQualify.com, at the least, will cost $50 more than 2011's comparable early qualifiers to enter (now $150 per), though 15 NHC seats will be up for grabs (up from 10 per qualifier last year).  I have mixed feelings about this, as $100 is usually my online contest cap, and I still think the Tour is askew in coaxing more money out of its steady customer base, rather than holding the line on contest entry fees to encourage greater participation in the throes of a methodical rebound in the U.S. economy.  As it is, NHCQualify.com had trouble getting players for its qualifying tournaments at the end of 2011, so I fail to see the logic in a fee increase in 2012.

Combined with the 64 seats to be awarded through Ellis Park's HorseTourneys.com, the preponderance of NHC seats awarded through online tourneys somewhat contradicts the Tour's press release emphasizing participation in live, in-person tournaments.  NHC Qualify and Horse Tourneys account for 66% of the 280 seats up for grabs that are now listed on the Tour calendar.  Add in another 6 (1 through DRF Bets, 2 through XpressBet and 3 through horseplayersqualify.com) and you get nearly 70%.

The biggest shortcomings, as I see it, especially as a New Jersey-based Tour player, are the decline in tournaments at Monmouth Park (there were fewer seats awarded last year to the NHC on account of the track's uncertain ownership, which continues into 2012) and lack of nearby in-person tournaments.  I have to automatically throw out the midweek tournament at Saratoga in August (citing the $1k entry fee and that I'd need to take vacation time from work to participate), so based on the early calendar, there are only 8 NHC seats, right now, being rewarded within a reasonable drive of Central NJ -- 2 in the Monmouth SSC in April (assuming I qualify in this or next month's play-in), 3 in a $400 weekend-long tournament at Belmont on June 23-24 and 3 in a $400 weekend-long tournament at Aqueduct on November 17-18.  If you count Suffolk Downs (about 5 hours away) as "reasonable", then there's another 3 seats, but that's a reach.

Again, this is an early read of how the 2012 NHC Tour is shaping up.  The availability of online tournament venues is an obvious plus (especially for those select few with a limitless bankroll), save for the implicit $50-per-tournament increase in qualifying events at NHC Qualify.  The award of 100 NHC seats via the yearly standings is an interesting wrinkle that is sure to increase participation in handicapping tournaments, and no doubt players should appreciate the half-year payouts to the Tour players leading the 1H:12 and 2H:12 standings.

The downside as I see it, however, is that the emphasis on on-track tournaments is a nice, but somewhat misplaced concept in that, for some of us, there may only be 2-3 such events per half year in which to participate -- an obvious detriment to the weekend contest player (i.e. NJ Horseplayer).  New Jersey players, constrained by a state law that mandates use of the arcane state-run ADW, have very limited access to NHC seats, something the NTRA should be using our membership fees to battle more vigorously, if at all.

I'll do my best to reassess the situation in the weeks and months ahead, and am hopeful that the NTRA will offer a more-candid view of its thinking in organizing the 2012 schedule and prepping for NHC 14.

Interesting Dichotomy between NHC 13 and HBO's "Luck"

Anyone who tuned in to the much-acclaimed HBO premiere of "Luck" on Sunday night -- much like NJ Horseplayer, who watched it two times -- came away highly entertained but, naively perhaps, a bit squeamish about life at the track, where the new series revealed some seedier sides of thoroughbred racing.

Of course, the track (Santa Anita) is merely the picturesque setting for a much broader fiction that, in my opinion, will prove a TV hit and maybe pump some life (or publicity, at the least) into a sport in the throes of precipitous decline, but the backdrop was nonetheless set with the main character opening Episode 1 with a release from prison and four schemers (including one wheelchair bound degenerate and dependent on oxygen) at the track putting together a Pick 6 ticket and (spoiler alert) hitting for, but not yet claiming, $2.8 million.  Portraits of this and a horse snapping one of its front quarters are perhaps not the most engaging invitation for someone to view the track as a great destination.

On the other hand, and very few people may know this due to the lack of television and print-media publicity, but DRF.com's reports from the 13th Annual National Handicapping Championship at Treasure Island in Las Vegas portray an altogether different side of the story, recapping not only what proved to be high drama to the very end...a nail-biting competition between 480 handicappers vying for a $1 million top prize, but also tremendous class, sportsmanship and humility shown by the subjects at the two-day tournament, held on Friday and Saturday.



Michael Beychok (above, courtesy of DRF.com), of Baton Rouge, LA, took down the NHC in the last contest race by a nose with a 3-to-1 shot from Golden Gate, finishing with a final score of $238.60 on his plays -- a mere $1 ahead of runner-up Dave Flanzbaum (below, also from DRF.com).



Congratulations, in the first place, to all contestants who qualified for NHC 13 (a futile effort for me in 2011) and also to those who took home prize money, but especially to the top finishers for surviving what had to be a gut-wrenching two days of handicapping, and displaying a level of professionalism in the post-game.  The top two finishers displayed an extremely cordial, professional and unassuming tone that came off as the complete reverse of much-ballyhooed World Poker Tour shows found all over cable TV.

Watching the juvenile conduct (i.e. sunglasses, backward hats and blank stares) at an event like the WPT or the conduct of select characters portrayed in Luck could make those outside the thoroughbred handicapping circuit falsely assume the racing game is strictly degenerate.  To the contrary, in my two years on the NHC Tour and as primarily a weekend player with a family and life far richer than wagering contests, I have found other players to be an extremely focused, studious and upstanding group in love with the sport, with players engaging extremely well socially and sharing ideas, whether at the contest betting windows or in online contest chats.  There is a tremendous level of mutual respect on the handicapping contest circuit.

The two videos above, and the thoughts shared with DRF by Day 1 leader Nolan White (a relatively new contest circuit player, who referred in questioning to lessons learned from his "Granddaddy") portray a much more affable yet competitive niche of the industry that needs to be publicized more than NHC 13 drew this weekend.  Maybe I missed it, but outside of brief references on HRTV's post-script to Sunday's racing, the event seemed grossly under-covered by the racing media.  No on-site updates from TVG or HRTV, no ESPN (which finds deathly snowmobile jumping contests far more saleable).  Only DRF.com seemed to be a resource for information.  Kudos to DRF.com.

Piggybacking Mike Watchmaker's thoughts about NHC 13 in Monday's DRF, now is the time for the NTRA and NHC to search for a TV outlet or production team that can package some human-interest programming focusing on what is now a big-money tournament (see Steve Crist's interview for interesting perspective on the NHC's evolution).  People watch others "hand-fish" for catfish in murky Bayou waters, so why not the human interest of a big-money handicapping showcase?

Whether TVG (which on Friday night aired a yawner of a show touting the merits of exchange wagering), HRTV or ESPN-37 become the host network for such an event, I would argue that any brand-name TV coverage would do wonders not only for the handicapping contest circuit, but in improving the perception of the thoroughbred industry itself.  This is something the entire industry should support.

The casual viewer or racegoer needs to know that there is excellent intellectual competition in the racing game, outside of the races on the track and machinations in the back stable or in betting parlors, that goes beyond the perception of thoroughbred racing as a mustier business with an unseemly culture.

Surely the industry could get a much-needed shot in the arm from a fictional racetrack-based series such as Luck, but the industry needs to collectively cultivate and inspire fans to recognize there's far more to the Sport of Kings.  The NHC is an excellent vehicle, in my view, to achieve such interest, and the NTRA and NHC should attack this aggressively in the run-up to NHC 14 in January 2013.

See you on TV next year...wink wink!

On the Sidelines on a busy Saturday

A literal interpretation, perhaps, as I coached one hoops game and am on to another this afternoon, explaining the relatively quiet (in terms of parimutuels) Saturday afternoon for NJ Horseplayer.

The weekend started well with a 5th-place finish (out of 39 entrants) in a $25 Derby Wars Friday Big Game yielding a $100 payout -- not too shabby -- late Friday afternoon; the key was nailing 46-1 first-time starter (12-to-1 morning line) Melrose Woods, trained by Dan Hendricks.

I'm hoping to turn some of that good handicapping fortune into success in two mythical contests today -- the Public Handicapper's weekly 4-race spread, featuring two races each from Gulfstream and Santa Anita; and as those races overlapped with the Facebook-based contest sponsored by HBO's new series Luck (premieres on Sunday), I'm entered there as well.  Here are three quick highlights:

• Romin Robin (8-to-1) has a decent shot, in my opinion, in the 9-furlong Florida Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf, simply because Joe Bravo is riding well on the turf.  
• Red Defense (8-to-1) is intriguing on the 6.5-furlong downhill course at Santa Anita, but with as many as three horses scratching out of the scheduled 8-horse field, this could be another of the less-than-stellar California stakes races. 
• Today's bomber play is Bench Glory (20-to-1) in the Valentine Dancer at a mile on turf from Santa Anita. Jockey Brice Blanc is having an awful start to the meet, but Bench Glory's first time on turf gives me some confidence that the horse likes the surface, and Blanc hits at 11% on turf and is riding for trainer Sean McCarthy, a good under-the-radar type.  I'm willing to take a shot in this unexciting field.

Best of luck to everyone today, especially those in the National Handicapping Championship in Vegas, where upon quick glance there were some players successfully scoring on bombers in yesterday's first round.

Empty in season-opening Monmouth contest

At the very least, the Simulcast Series Challenges at Monmouth Park are three of my favorite contests of the season -- live-money events where handicappers play the races of their choice across three tracks. The snow in the Northeast washed out the Aqueduct card, but Gulfstream and Tampa offered 11 races each with full fields and plenty of opportunities for some big prices. I hit none of them, unfortunately.

NJ Horseplayer as "moron"

An unceremonious 0-for-10 on a $100 starting bankroll with minimum $10 win-place-show wagers was highlighted, uncharacteristically, by my inability to pull the trigger on what I thought was a playable long-shot in 24-to-1 Pepe's Valentine in the 8th from Tampa. Down to my last $10, for some reason I could not pull the trigger on the longest price in what was a ragtag field, and sure as heck this nag stalked the "hot" early pace and caught the front-runners with a nice ground-saving rail trip in this $17k claimer.

Instead of increasing my bankroll to ~$260 ($51.80 to win) and easily a top-10 spot (the top 10 of 134 participants split cash prizes, while the top 15 earn 1 of 45 spots in the April SSC Invitational for two spots in the 2013 National Handicapping Championship), I wasted my final bullet in Tampa's 9th. Game, set and match.

Typically I give myself a "cooling off" period before blogging my contest performance, but hosting a little shindig for tomorrow's NFL Championship round I wanted to pound out the unhappy recap and air some grievances. In short, I was close with my first $10W wager, 6-to-1 Fly South, in the opener from Gulfstream, where Javier Castellano gave the horse a perfect trip before succumbing to the clear favorite, 2-to-5 Don Missil. Even in hindsight I'm satisfied with my play against severe chalk.

My only other close call was 2-to-1 Mobilizerin the 4th from Gulfstream, who lost by a head and who took a lot of late money.  I put $10W while the horse was hovering around 7-2 with a minute until post; Mobilizer lost to the even-money favorite by a head.  I skipped out on $7 winner in 5-to-2 Red Orchestra when my top choice, Lady Whimsical, scratched from the gate in the 7th from Tampa, but other than perhaps a slight confidence booster, I'm not sure that "miss" ruined my day.  Pepe's Valentine ultimately did.

Gulfstream was ridiculously chalky (the three biggest win payouts were $11), which bodes poorly for horseplayers like me seeking prices, but I have no excuse at Tampa, where my five selections were generally awful but 5 of the 11 winners paid $30 or more for a $2W wager.

It's back to the drawing board, I suppose, and proof again that I've got a long way to go before even approaching the higher echelons of handicapping and bankroll management.  Until SSC#2 in February, I anticipate sitting tight on the contest front, maybe staying fresh with a few efforts on Derby Wars and maybe an NHC Tour freebie, assuming the Tour is offering five again this season to tour players.

---

A few side notes...

• Kudos to the Monmouth Park staff for getting a) the facility open under some icy conditions in the region and b) 134 contest players to turn out even on a day where Aqueduct was scratched because of weather; Sophia Mangalee does a great job spearheading these midwinter events.  I can only speculate that the turnout would have been upwards of 200 had the weather been more favorable, and anticipate a much deeper field for SSC #2 on February 18.
• Credit to Red Rock or Bust for toughing out the road conditions from the Oranges to participate. At one point Terry found the leaderboard with ~$150 bankroll after a nice win on 9-to-2 Tarpy's Goal in the 7th from Gulfstream but went scoreless thereafter to join me in the basement.
• Good luck to anyone from the NJ Horseplayer blogosphere involved in the National Handicapping Championship this week in Las Vegas!  After a full season as an NHC Tour player, I have the utmost respect to those who gained entry into what is sure to stack up as a difficult two-day tournament where the pot is worth more than $1.6 million, with the first of roughly 500 contestants taking down a cool mil. 

Starting 2012 on a Good Note

Happy New Year, everyone!  I hope everyone's having a prosperous start to 2012, more prosperous than my handicapping contest outcome in 2011 (as portrayed in my new blog header).

I got a late Christmas present in the form of a press release from Monmouth Park, announcing there will be a Simulcast Series Challenge this winter, with three handicapping contests slated for January 21, February 18 and March 24.  Fortunately, none of these conflict with any assistant basketball coaching obligations, weekend trips planned by the Mrs. or things like Valentine's Day, where playing ponies over catering to the wife would, presumably, be frowned upon.

SSC: Winter Picnic
at Monmouth Park

I despise winter, especially January and February -- really nothing redeeming about Arctic blasts, but these three contests are among the favorites on my calendar, considering the live-money aspect ($100 entry, $100 bankroll) with the potential to win real money (50% of the pot to the winner, then a sliding scale down for the Top 10 finishers) and the timing in the dead of winter.  For those who have yet to participate, the SSC is a must-attend.  Save for frugal food credits (usually a $10 voucher...not much, but something), everything is right about these tournaments.

The Top 15 in each month's contest advance to a 45-spot April play-in for two National Handicapping Championship seats.  I went 0-for-2011 with a break-even performance and one crap-out and am hoping to turn in a better performance this year.

If the SSC keeps true to form, players are required to make minimum $10 win, place or show (or a combination thereof) wagers, typically on Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs, for a minimum of 10 races.  Tampa, in my opinion, tends to produce the biggest prices and is an excellent handicapping contest track, more so than Aqueduct, though that may change in 2012 with bigger purses.  Gulfstream's card is always deep and of high contest quality.  Really, the handicapping contest is a wide-open affair, with some 35 races on the card.  The hardest part, for me, is patience, considering I seem to find value in every race.  Admittedly, however, the only way to win is patience and well-placed big wagers on 1-2 races...picking spots, more or less.

It's hard to be patient, but I'm anxiously counting down the days until SSC#1, past performances in hand and ready to stake out a spot in the Monmouth's terrace restaurant, looking out at the dormant track and picturing opening day some four months down the road (hopefully, based on what's going on with track ownership).

Otherwise, there's not much contest action to report on my end.  I may enter the Horse Tourneys $25 contest on Saturday for a shot at the "Last Chance" tournament in Las Vegas for this year's NHC, but would more or less fly blind and make picks in advance, which I'm typically not a fan of, though my"catch lightning in a bottle mentality" may win out at just a $25 ante with some well-placed long shots.  We'll see.  Elsewhere, it's a "freebie" for-fun contest, but I'd highly recommend Del Mar's "Winter Meet" contest; it's a great way to practice handicapping skills, with free PPs on a daily race of the day from Santa Anita.