Best Laid Plan Gone Astray...Partly

The show-based handicapping contest wagering strategy contemplated here and that prompted a NJ Horseplayer blog respondent to coin the plan as "flawed" actually proved valuable in yesterday's SSC #3 contest at Monmouth Park, but ultimately two poorly ridden horses put an end to my contest hopes.

Of my first six (of 10 mandated) contest wagers, I scored on all three show wagers (each yielding at least 2-1) and missed on three $10 win wagers, getting me halfway through the Aqueduct-Gulfstream-Tampa card with a 6% ROI on my bankroll. I theorized going into SSC #3 that I could "move the chains" toward the mid- to later-card and "save up" for 1-2 well-placed win wagers that could vault me into the Top 15.

As noted Saturday, I found two horses mid-card that I thought had a decent shot of scoring at big odds, and rested my contest hopes on these, for lack of finding any plausible shots later in the afternoon.

The first was Loaded Lady ($10W/$16S) in the sixth from Tampa, listed at 20-to-1 but bet down to 8-to-1 at the open.  This four-year-old ultimately drifted back toward 15-to-1 and got off to a great start from post 4 in a 10-horse field at 11 furlongs on the turf, but jockey Willie Martinez inexplicably settled back as the field crawled to a 27-second opening quarter and nearly 54-second half before the horse ultimately finished dead last. Typically I do not harp on "poor trips", but I knew Loaded Lady had NO chance after seeing the opening splits.  There went one-quarter of my bankroll.

Another quarter of my bankroll ($25S) disappeared only moments later (the races almost went off simultaneously), when in Race 5 from Gulfstream (8-horse field, 1-mile turf), a $25k claimer, Jesus Castanon put 10.6-to-1 Zubani to sleep out of the gate.  The horse looked sharp (not a front-runner, but looking spry) out of the gate, but was pulled back to dead last and ultimately ridden 3-4 horse wide around the oval in a race run in 24.4-50-1:14 through three quarters before finishing seventh.

Two misplaced wagers launched my capital-preservation strategy out the window.  More than halfway through the contest card, and recognizing that show-based wagering would not give me enough winnings to make one big bet in one of the final races, I made six losing $10W wagers to put an unceremonious conclusion to my Simulcast Series Challenge season.

In the end, good handicapping rules all, and with the majority of winning horses in yesterday's 32-race handicapping contest card winning at 7-to-2 odds or less, kudos to those who were able to able to manage their bankrolls better and call enough shorter-priced winners to hit the top 15 and qualify for April's SSC Invitational.  However, I am not yet ready to abandon the notion of capital preservation to survive into the later stages of live-money contests and make one well-placed win wager in the late stages.

The next opportunity for NJ Horseplayer is the Preakness Day contest at Monmouth Park. Between now and then, we'll dabble on the online circuit and see what happens.

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Went the Day Well came between what compounded a maudlin day and what could have been a glorious afternoon for the NJ Horseplayer camp. The Vinery Spiral Stakes was the ninth of 10 carded for Saturday's NHC Tour Online Challenge, and I was high on Holiday Promise to upend this Grade 3 Derby prep field at 9 furlongs, and got 25-to-1 to assume that risk.  I was banking on Heavy Breathing to be the favorite off an impressive hand-ride win at Gulfstream and going to the lead, and thought Holiday Promise might stalk and have enough late kick to get lucky down the stretch.  Mission accomplished...except for Graham Motion-trained Went the Day Well (5-to-1), who was stronger down the stretch and took the Vinery.

Sure, I got more for Holiday Promise's place finish ($21.80; NHC Online Challenge awards players notional win and place earnings) than Went the Day Well's combined $18.40 WP, but my move in the standings from 101st to 35th suggests a win rather than a runner-up finish might have been the difference in grabbing a Top 4 spot (qualifying me for Vegas) and finishing 49th as I did. Note, too, that I originally had NHC contest Race 10 winner Close to the Edge (Race 6 from Santa Anita; 5-to-2) but shifted to the absolute longest shot in that field at the last minute, knowing I needed at least $24 of notional winnings to crack the Top 4. I would never have selected 61-to-1 El Pocho otherwise, but therein lies the difference between live-money and points-based handicapping contests.

Finally, congrats to fellow blogger Ray Wallin (Jersey Capper) for finishing tied for 40th in the NHC Online Challenge and landing within the Top 25 of SSC #3 going into the final race before bowing out. It was great to finally meet Ray yesterday, and to mingle with some other players during SSC #3, which is a great venue.

Monmouth Park, NHC Freebies on Tap

Of course one of the NHC Tour "free" online handicapping contests is today, coinciding with what I would consider a better contest: Monmouth Park's third (of three) Simulcast Series Challenges.  Winning a tournament (the Top 4 win spots in the 2013 NHC in Las Vegas) with 1,000-plus contestants sort of obviates the need for aggressive handicapping, but a quick view of those 10 contest races comprising the NHC freebie lend some valuable, productive insights for SSC#3.

Six of the 10 NHC contest races are part of the SSC#3 card, which includes the full 32 races from Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs.  (The other four include three stakes from Turfway Park, and a nine-horse - sure to scratch down to five runners - sprint from Santa Anita.).  As always, the SSC requires contest players to make at least 10 W/P/S wagers of at least $10, and as well documented the past few weeks, NJ Horseplayer is hoping to remain disciplined in a show-based contest strategy, incrementally increase a $100 starting bankroll in hopes of making a big win or win-place play at the end -- a winning strategy in recent live-money contests at Monmouth Park.

There are three interesting long-shots tied to the NHC freebie that I've got my eye on; whether I play them during SSC#3, and how (i.e. to win, place or show), is another question.

• Storm Warnings (8-to-1), Gulfstream Race 8, $30k claimer: Probably over-matched last out on December 17 in $44k allowance where one-time stakes runner Santiva lost by a neck.  A Beyer-best 82 vs. suspect field, and trainer with pretty decent turf ROI with the switch to Juan Leyva (has been decent on GP turf, from races I've seen) suggest this one is worth a look at a mile on turf, especially with the two favorites drawn way outside (posts 10 and 11).
• Zubani (10-to-1), Gulfstream Race 5, $25k claimer at a mile on turf: Glad that Scott Volk-trained Kelly's Pic scratched, since I had given serious consideration at 6-to-1. The four horses with the lowest morning lines look quite similar, in my view, and looking elsewhere I am willing to toss Zubani's last race, where the horse was too aggressively spotted. Race two back against $25k company at the distance suggests the horse can hang with these, and Allen Irwinski is 13% with turf runners.
• Loaded Lady (20-to1), Tampa Race 6, $16k starter handicap at 11 furlongs on turf: Colleague Red Rock or Bust can attest to my theory that turf races of these distance are the equivalent of a $3k claimer at Los Alamitos, and so I handicapped this race seeking big balloons. There are several angles here for NJ Horseplayer: 11-horse field of mostly so-so talent, third off the layoff for a horse that's 4-for-8 in-the-money on turf (but no winners), and relatively good closing speed and back at a level where bettors may dismiss the horse. Beyer figures do not stack up well versus horses to Loaded Lady's outside, but the horse's connections have spotted this one vs. some much tougher on turf, and the horse ran creditably in some of those races. At the very least, I will be playing this one for show money, but perhaps this is the latter-contest type play where I pull the trigger on a sizable win bet.

Side note: Captain America, a part of NJ Horseplayer's DRF Watch List, is listed at 15-to-1 in the sixth from Hawthorne and might be worth a look and side bet. 

Eager to Test New Strategy on Saturday

Perhaps the logic is as exciting as watching paint dry, but I am getting antsy about testing a show-wagering handicapping contest strategy touched upon a few weeks back here on NJHorseplayer.com.

Nothing fancy about
NJ Horseplayer

Admittedly there's scant glory in picking a thoroughbred that finishes second or third as opposed to a well-place win wager on a hefty long-shot, but heading into Saturday Simulcast Series Challenge #3 at Monmouth Park, finishing in the Top 15 is the primary goal en route to a spot in April's SSC Invitational and a 2-in-45 shot for a seat to NHC 14 in Las Vegas next January.

Tuesday evening I handicapped and made selections on 10 races in advance of a Wednesday contest on DerbyWars.com, adhering to strict guidelines in shadowing that tournament as if I were perched in the Monmouth Park Clubhouse restaurant across the table from Red Rock or Bust playing in SSC #3, rather than participating in an online tournament.  The parameters were simple: a notional $10 show wager only on horses in fields of at least 8 and with odds greater than 5-to-1.  Races 2 through 5 on the Aqueduct and Gulfstream cards comprised my "shadow" tournament.

Three races were automatically eliminated (5- and 6-horse fields), leaving me with seven hypothetical selections.  I would have lost on three races but scored in four of the seven that met the standard, with horses 8-to-1, 10-to-1, 21-to-1 and 25-to-1 all cracking the top three and yielding show payments (on a $2 wager) of $4.80, $9.80, $9.40 and $6.80, respectively.  The outcome would have been an $83 profit on the $100 starting bankroll -- far better than I fared in SSC #1 and #2 and decent powder for a sizable late-day wager (win bet, in all likelihood) to perhaps crack the Top 15.

One can debate the merits of such a strategy or the appeal of show betting, but citing my analysis of my performance in SSC #2 in February, in addition to the outcome of my Derby Wars test run, I would argue that I stand a much better chance of meeting my objective to advance to the SSC Invitational in April.  Sure, this no guts-no glory approach is ultra-conservative, but I need to remember to convince myself on Saturday that a capital preservation strategy could pay dividends in lasting to day's end and advancing.

Of course, first I'll have to get cracking on my handicapping to identify some potential long-shots in advance, which I hope to address in print before Saturday's big contest at Monmouth Park.

Speaking of which, if you have not yet seen the piece, I was invited a few weeks back by Monmouth Park's Sophia Mangalee to guest-blog in advance of SSC #3.  Similar to my blogging hobby, I had a lot of fun with that piece, and was honored to be approached, let alone published, on a "professional" website.  Anyway, here's the link for interested readers: http://monmouthpark.com/blogs.aspx?blogid=28726.  Enjoy!

Story Up on Monmouth Park's Blog

Sophia Mangalee, contest director at Monmouth Park, thought enough of the NJ Horseplayer's ramblings to request my perspective about Simulcast Series Challenge #3 coming up on Saturday, March 24.

Here's a link to that piece (published Thursday), and as a relative newbie it is entirely flattering to be up there (albeit temporarily, since I am just a weekend hack) with Brad Thomas, perhaps the foremost authority on thoroughbred handicapper in the U.S.  Please enjoy!

Derby Wars Kicks It Up A Notch With $25k Tourney

Since first waxing poetic about DerbyWars.com last fall, this upstart online handicapping contest provider has greatly increased the opportunity for horseplayers to play in five-day-a-week contests (for cash and bonuses), and is breaking ground this Saturday, March 10, with a $25,100 tournament that draws no comparison and is, perhaps, the most lucrative yet of the online niche.

DerbyWars.com goes "Emeril"
on the online handicapping
contest circuit

DerbyWars.com is a utopia of sorts for New Jersey-based horseplayers and those in other states that limit access to online contest participation.  As an NHC Tour member seeking to advance to the annual National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas, NJ Horseplayer is prohibited from winning an NHC seat through notable venues such as DRFBets.com, Twinspires.com and the like (hopefully the privatization of Monmouth Park and the Meadowlands will change that), but DerbyWars.com provides a great alternative to horseplayers focused on the expanding contest circuit or honing their contest skills, and has quickly and firmly established itself as the industry leader.

There are two ways to claim a spot in Saturday's groundbreaking $25k tournament -- a straight $175 entry fee, or winning a "$25k Shootout Token" in smaller daily tournaments this week leading up to the event.  On Wednesday, for instance, DerbyWars.com will give away two $25k "tokens" through contests costing as little as 2,000 points (DW customer accrue points for either bankroll deposits or by placing in the Top 10 of points-based fantasy contests) and a 50-person survivor tournament that costs a mere $4 to enter.  As of Tuesday, 82 of the 165 eligible spots in the $25k tournament were claimed, leaving players plenty of opportunity to buy or win a chance this week at the $10,000 top prize.

Speaking of prizes, the payouts seem rather equitable.  NJ Horseplayer is by no means an expert in takeout comparisons (i.e. to other contest sites or versus real-money wagers on- or off-track), but the payouts for this Saturday will total $23k cash to the top 18 finishers, plus another $2,100 of "$25k Shootout Tokens" (12, in all).  The roughly 13% takeout is well below several parimutuel alternatives (i.e. Pick 3s and 4s at many tracks) and comparable to the mid- to high-teens we find for other daily Derby Wars tournaments.

With little in terms of NHC tournament action on Saturday, DerbyWars.com's timing to introduce a novel $25,000 handicapping tournament could not have been better.  NHCQualify.com is giving away up to six (6) NHC seats on Sunday, but the $160 entry fee for a less-than-1.67% shot at winning and 5% shot at coming away with anything (10 entries to a future tournament will be awarded to 6th-15th place) may be better spent on a tournament offering prizes to the top 12%.

In a perfect world (for yours truly and other NHC Tour players), the $25k Shootout this coming Saturday would provide eligibility to the National Handicapping Championship, but much as the online contest website quickly burst onto the scene last year with what is by far the best user-friendly interface of any peer site, NJ Horseplayer speculates that DerbyWars.com may again enter the NHC realm down the road.  (Brian Zipse, Managing Editor at DerbyWars.com affiliate HorseRacingNation's parent Horse Racing Labs, nee Immerse LLC, emailed NJ Horseplayer that no decisions on this front have yet been made.) 

Best of luck to those participating in DerbyWars.com's maiden $25k Shootout, and keep a gallon of water handy to wash down NJ Horseplayer's dust, just in case we find our way into the tournament.

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For related thoughts on the $25,100 Shootout, check out the takes of blogger brethren Red Rock or Bust and Equinometry.

One Nail-Biting Step Toward Qualifying for NHC

Sunday proved relatively productive for NJ Horseplayer, with a 12th-place finish (out of 209) in the HorseTourneys.com NHC Preliminary Feed-In Tournament producing a $195 credit for entry to one of the site's National Handicapping Championship qualifiers.

Today's $20 entry fee to today's tournament ultimately proved worth it, considering a few impressive wins, credible long-shot handicapping, and that likely I was less than a head away from finishing at least in the top 3 with a 21-to-1 shot (Passing Game in the 8th from Santa Anita).

The 10-race tournament got off to a good start, with 9-to-1 winner Travel Advisory in the 7th from Fair Grounds putting my bankroll at $32.20 with about 30 other players.  I hit the board in the 3rd contest race ($3 of place money) and went cold for 4 more, but got rolling in the final three races from Santa Anita.

Uncanny resemblance to NJ
Horseplayer's pet, "Mr. Cat"

Spending Smart was a huge overlay at 14-to-1 off a 6-to-1 morning line and was in-the-money in two attempts from 7 furlongs, and the quick early pace in the $62,500 optional claimer set up perfectly for this 5-year-old gelding son of Smarty Jones, who paid $30 to win and $11 to place, elevating me to 15th-place with two races remaining in the contest.  Passing Game just missed in the next, beat out by another $30 winner, which pushed me down to a tenuous 20th-place with a race to go.

Unimpressed by anyone in particular in the finale, an $8k claimer at 6 furlongs, I landed on 5-to-2 Folk Dancer, who finished 3rd in his last two outings, including a $12.5k claimer and a race prior where he was steadied hard.  I knew I needed at least an in-the-money finish to advance, and recent form seemed to be a credible angle in a field where the hot-riding Eswan Flores appeared the only credible foe on 5-to-1 Sizzling Gold, who ended up finishing second by a neck.  Dancer's victory assured me a spot in the Top 21.

If nothing else, the finish gives me a 1-in-50 shot at qualifying for an NHC seat (HorseTourneys.com is rewarding up to 12 NHC spots in March), whether it be next Sunday's tournament or one at a later date.  For tonight, however, it lets me rest a little bit easier that I am gaining as a handicapper and at some point will reach Las Vegas.

Save the Date: Monmouth Park sets 2012 NHC Contests

(Correction on Feb. 24, 2012, regarding Monmouth-Woodbine contests in June and September; 2 (not 1) NHC spots will be awarded to on-track Monmouth Park players at each contest. There is no duplicate contest being held at Woodbine at the same time.)

Initially, I planned solely to pan Monmouth a bit for allowing non-NHC Tour contest players to win spots in the 45-player Simulcast Series Challenge invitational on April 28, but am more enthused by the release of on-track NHC-based contest dates at The Shore's Greatest Stretch, and that my solicited input may have had some positive impact on the schedule.  The early lowdown:

• Saturday, May 19: $200 Preakness Day contest for 2 NHC seats
• Kudos to Sophia Mangalee and her team for scheduling an event around one of the Triple Crown races.  As noted on February 9, NJ Horseplayer speculates that contests scheduled around the Derby, Preakness or Belmont can perhaps draw new players who are otherwise on track to wager on major races; in other words, a captive audience.  Including races from presumably deep fields from Pimlico should also prove very enticing to people seeking big payouts and considering handicapping contests (i.e. low-risk, high-reward proposition). 
• Sunday, June 3: $200 Monmouth/Woodbine Handicapping Challenge for 2 NHC seats
• Sunday, September 16: $200 Monmouth/Woodbine Handicapping Challenge for 2 NHC seats. 
• Positives include full fields expected at Woodbine for $500k Woodbine Oaks and $150k Plate Trial on June 3, and the contest tracks (Woodbine, in particular) will offer plenty of opportunities to score big prices 

Separately, a $100 contest for one 2013 Horse Player World Series tournament will be held on Saturday, July 21.  I'm not an HPWS guy, but it's a live contest. (Editor's note: Sophia informed NJ Horseplayer on Friday that the reason Monmouth Park did not make this event an NHC contest is because the NHC Tour counts July as the first half of the season, which we speculate has to do with the new Tour standings format rolled out by the Tour last month.)

Again, these are early findings, but the combination of 8 National Handicapping Championship seats up for grabs through contests at Monmouth Park (two from the SSC, and two each from the above-noted contests) is a great start, though the absence of NHC-oriented in July and August, during the prestigious Saratoga meet, is an early drawback.  Perhaps financial (i.e. uncertain ownership at Monmouth ties the marketing staff's hands in terms of announcing other dates or buying more NHC seats) or scheduling conflicts (i.e. with other NHC Tour dates at other NTRA venues) are at play, but hopefully NHC Tour players based around Monmouth will get at least another on-track opportunity for a contest later in the summer. 

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Keep Non-NHC Tour Players OUT of the SSC Invitational

NJ Horseplayer's opinion may upset or alienate some readers, but Monmouth's press release Monday about Chris Russo's (no, not "The Mad Dog") impressive last-race win in SSC#2 on Saturday and listing of the Top 15 finishers got me thinking -- why should SSC entrants who are not NHC Tour members get spots in an exclusive invite-only tournament for two spots in the National Handicapping Championship?

Two of the top 15 finishers among the 265 contestants in SSC#2 were not Tour players, which is fine; let them compete for prize money only as the rules specify.  I am fine with  them winning prize money, whether these are one-off players kicking the tires of the contest world, or people who compete regularly but have no interest in NHC or are merely too cheap to part with $50 for the annual Tour membership.  

In my opinion, Monmouth needs to make the 45-player SSC Invitational -- a key local on-track tournament for any NHC Tour player -- exclusive to paying NHC Tour members.  In the case of this past Saturday, for example, I would propose that the two highest finishers outside the Top 15 (NJ Horseplayer, as usual, not among them) who are NHC Tour members should get those spots on April 28, much as Tour players down the food chain win spots in other NHC-based tournaments where a player who has already qualified for the NHC but wins yet another qualifying tournament relinquishes his/her seat to the next-highest qualifying tournament finisher(s).  Another idea is to give the total number of spots to the SSC Invitational won by, hypothetically, 5 non-Tour players to the top-5 bankrolls of NHC Tour players in either SSC#1, 2 or 3.

Otherwise, to give entries into an NHC-drive tournament to non-Tour players devalues the $50 membership fee.  I hope consideration is given to this thought next season, as it is probably too late to change now.