NHC 26: A Few Lengths from the Money

There's no glory in finishing 461st of 828 in NHC26, but several positive takeaways from my fifth NHC effort. 

The trip started horribly, with a TSA sick-out prompting jetBlue flight cancellation from Newark six hours before takeoff, a miraculous shift to JFK, delays, and 3:30 a.m. hotel arrival. 

I barely slept, considering the travel after-effects, contest anticipation, and 9 a.m. start to NHC26, and it showed on Day 1. 

I banked a mere $23.80 on a chalky Friday where half of winners in my 16 races (6 mandatory, 10 optional) were post-time favorites at average odds of 1.6-to-1, but wasn't dejected only $55 off the 83rd-place goal for Sunday-championship qualification and as I somehow maintained strategic focus of targeting vulnerable favorites while avoiding action-oriented impulse plays. 

Saturday was far better, with 8.2-to-1 and 10.7-to-1 winners in two of the eight mandatories, a 9-1 place, and five near-miss thirds including three cap types that simply didn't go my way. I might have been a Sunday qualifier with a bit more luck in two of these. Here's the replay evidence.

Aqueduct, Race 3, #6 Unbridled Bomber (18.06-to-1): The two longest shots in a sketchy 6-horse field made sense; just went the wrong way as Centavo was closer to the pace to score at 17.75-to-1 and my pick missed second by a neck, costing at least $10 of place money.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 5, #10 Radar Loop (19.5-to-1): A gut punch. Great stalking trip and had enough to win but squeezed badly in the stretch by the top two and lost all action before edged for third. There was a lengthy inquiry (stewards' notes lend little to this) and I believe grounds from the head-on of a double DQ had Radar Loop held for third. I was disappointed but not waylaid.  

Aqueduct, Race 7, #5 Blue Forty Two (21.25-to-1): No qualms, just too belated an effort and the favorite won at 0.67-to-1. Contest players love big fields, but I cite this and AQ3 above as opportunities to beat short-priced favorites in small fields, which should lend well to cleaner trips in optional races where the majority of contestants may be inclined to take a pass.   

Santa Anita Park, Race 3, #2 Quereme Pass (9-to-1): Not much to say. Second best. Great trip, nose beat. Missed opportunity for $20+ of win money.

Colonial Downs, Race 10, #5 Sharp Tones (28.3-to-1): On the flipside of the above "clean trips in short fields" logic, Joe Rocco's ride was abysmal. This one still gets under my skin. A YouTube replay wasn't available, but here's one from Bloodhorse. Rocco easily cost the three lengths needed to win by inexplicably running up on heels in the first furlong then completely losing patience top of the stretch with an erratic wide move. A sound optional play but a clearly unfavorable trip.

Gulfstream Park, Race 12, #10 Coco Abarrio (15.1-to-1): The top two finishers of 10 were 18-to-1 and 33-to-1, so my logic was correct. No qualms with performance but missed decent place money in this wide-option optional contest race. (Spanish-language replay.)

Santa Anita Park, Race 7, #10 Centrodelantero (4.4-to-1): One of the later races and a 9-horse field but sitting on a few late bullets, I made this more logical play in the seventh of eight Day 2 mandatories. Great trip, got the lead 2x in stretch but a nose-beat third in a 3-horse photo. The potential $16-$18 of bankroll would have positioned me to play less of a reach in my final two picks instead of 38-to-1 and 46-to-1.

The outcomes stunk, but on a patient handicapping front, I was satisfied with my Saturday effort, identifying several opportunities to strike with less popular selections. I believe it's key to contest success, no matter the format.

The table below shows the average odds of my Saturday selections was far higher than Friday's, yet several were in contention, and surely enough where my outcome could have been different with some racing luck. Only 25% of winners in my 20 Saturday races were favorites vs. 50% on Friday, so I mapped out appropriate opportunities.

NHC26 proved to be my best finish, sadly, but continued progress from NHC25. I'll continue to consider live-money tournaments at Monmouth Park and maybe Laurel Park, but target the bigger Horse Tourneys tournaments before online NHC events despite their slightly lower-cost entry points. 

The NHC is always a great time and it's gratifying to qualify for such a tremendous test, but with the prize pool flattening and players' gifts deteriorating (e.g., from a $100 casino chip per qualifier and open bar to a cheapo backpack) by the year, I envision no change in my bankroll to make it to NHC27.