The race shapes up as somewhat paceless, which could compromise the chances for Derby winner Golden Tempo (9-2), though his Run for the Roses was similar to Renegade's, except for a significantly easier post position. My thesis hinges on Renegade getting post relief this Saturday and, similar to Golden Tempo, five full weeks of rest and recovery.
Here's my take on each runner in order of preference.
#4, Renegade (2-1): By far the best of trainer Todd Pletcher's two entries and a neck shy of winning the Derby from the absolute worst post (rail draw). Broke cleanly before getting pinballed along the rail and settling toward the rear. His late move was eye-catching but I sense he had to work harder than Golden Tempo to procure a potential winning position. In the Belmont, I anticipate he'll get a more favorable tracking trip near stablemate Powershift. Unless he hates the Saratoga surface (debut was a decent third as a two-year-old late last summer there but at a sprint distance), he's the winner.
#7, Commandment (6-1): I liked him going into the Kentucky Derby and remain a fan. I was tempted to make him top selection at the generous morning line and as he was jostled quite a bit in the Derby, but upon watching the replay a 50th time liked Renegade's finish from the dreaded rail a lot more. I wouldn't be surprised if Commandment wins but am sticking with Renegade.
#9, Golden Ticket (9-2): The morning line is generous but fair consider his deep closer style on a difficult track to execute such strategy. I'm not sure we'll see a minute and 10-second (or faster) three-quarter mile time like in most of his five lifetime races and so I'm calling him third-best. If the internal race fraction is that fast again, look out; could be your winner. Otherwise, something in the more reasonable 1:11-1:12 range make his prospects more challenging. Can win, just unsure he can repeat the late kick again on this particular track.
#6, Growth Equity (12-1): The distant best of three Chad Brown runners. Unsure he faced anyone credible in two short-field wins downstate leading into the Belmont, though he's got stamina. Distance shouldn't be an issue and I sense we'll hear his name among the leaders into the stretch. The question is whether he's quality enough to win the crown. I'll use underneath Renegade on my tickets and gauge his potential for a win in the Travers at Saratoga in late August.
#3, Chief Wallabee (3-1): Finished fourth in the Derby and is a hard-knocker. I think he'd benefit more from the traditional 12-furlong Belmont distance than this year's 10 furlongs. I sense he'll sit just off Powershift's flank and hope to outlast the rest if the race is semi-paceless. The knock for me, as noted in my Kentucky Derby analysis, is that he wilted late in two Derby preps, both to Commandment, who I think is better. Ceiling is third or fourth and 3-1 is too short.
#8, Emerging Market (6-1): Another Brown trainee and who gets the top jockey Flavian Prat. I wasn't a huge fan into the Derby, begrudgingly and defensively rating him in my second tear, and have no change of opinion. Simply, nothing caught my eye in the Derby to elevate Emerging Market beyond a midpack finish in Saturday's Belmont. Yes, he beat Golden Ticket in the Louisiana Derby earlier in the Derby prep season, but GT was significantly squeezed from the gate and still almost won. Emerging Markets simply capitalized.
#2, Powershift (12-1): The other Pletcher horse, who needed to face a group of older horses to break his maiden on the Kentucky Derby undercard. That's a significant negative. I sense he'll jump out as the leader and it might be uncontested, but there's not enough here to have confidence beyond the horse leading beyond 6-7 furlongs. Will fade and finish in the bottom half.
#5, Ottinho (20-1): Second and third in two stakes races but 11 lengths behind the winner in both. I'm figuring this Chad Brown trainee takes a little money, just not mine for a one-paced horse who seems to lack stamina or speed.
#1, Vitruvian Man (30-1): The connections can say they had a Belmont runner. Good for them.
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