Feeling like Trump

After a few months of experimenting, I decided to fire 4NJBets.com and see little reason to continue an account with the state-operated ADW for NJ residents, considering the lack of value-add as a contest player and the accessibility of video replays pretty much anywhere on the Web (the impetus for me subscribing).

Synonymous with "You're Fired",
the demise of the USFL, AC casinos
and a slick coiffure

There was part of me that hoped the membership, started a few months ago and opened by the account staff alacrity of a fleet snail, would produce more than a venue for betting races -- some bonus or rewards points, members-only contests, free PPs, a free pen...something extra more than a place to burn through cash.

The bottom line is that NJ-based handicapping contest players are screwed, when considering players in many others states can subscribe to a TwinSpires.com and DRFBets, both of which offer online play-in tournaments for seats in the $2 million NHC tournament in Las Vegas in early 2012.  The TwinSpires site, alone, is offering 20 seats in a November contest, which would be an enticement enough for me to defect, would NJ's archaic state law allow.  I am not really sure how to go about it, and have no time to form coalitions to pressure legislators to let horseplayers take their online dollars elsewhere, but if anyone has ideas, I'm all ears.

Speaking of contest play, I am happy to have survived the first three days of the Monmouth Park Survival at the Shore without burning a life preserver (as happened through the first weekend last season). There were 1,462 players eliminated already and only 5,024 to leapfrog on the way to the top spot for a coveted NHC seat; but, hey, 1,337th-place gives me a nice stalking trip, right?!

And, this coming Sunday, I will be "competing" in the first of two Monmouth-Woodbine handicapping challenges for a spot to Vegas.  It will be interesting to see whether Monmouth draws the 200 contests that are targeted in the brochure.  Later this week I'll post some thoughts on good horses that I'll pick (meaning those you should likely avoid).

An afternoon meant for horse racing!

No self-deprecating rants about my handicapping ineptitude or the downward spiral of NJ's live racing program...just excitement about the weather and a family outing at Monmouth Park this afternoon.

Thanks to the men and women of U.S. Armed Forces, civilians like us get to enjoy a wealth of freedoms and frivolities (i.e., horseplay). Let's do our best to acknowledge our service members not only this weekend, but all year, and say prayer for those who perished in the line of duty.

In searching of a military-themed piece tied to horse racing, I stumbled upon this story from VegasInsider.com, leading up to the 2008 NHC in Las Vegas, where a U.S. Army sergeant, Chris Lavezza, had earned a spot in the year-end NHC Championship after finishing 4th in an online qualifier...while serving in Afghanistan as part of Operation Enduring Freedom!  Here's a great quote from that story:

"The NHC helped take my mind off the gravity of being in a war zone,'' said Lavezza, who spent most of his time in Afghanistan in a compound in Kabul. ``You have to be vigilant every day out there especially when you travel given the existence of I.E.D.s (Improvised Explosive Devices) which can be anywhere. You just never know what's going to happen from day to day in Afghanistan.''

Imagine handicapping under such stress, though like many of us, the handicapping hobby is a release from the daily routine for many. Subjection to enemy gunfire is obviously far from routine, but you catch my drift.

I had a hard time navigating the NTRA website and others in trying to find out how Mr. Lavezza finished at the NHC, but it warmed my heart to see that not only did he qualify, but the NTRA's press release about his qualification tied Mr. Lavezza's interest in the sport to trips to Penn National with his father as a kid. Many of us have similar bonds, and as a horseplayer it is great to read these kinds of pieces, when there are misconceptions about horse racing as a sport of a lesser ilk.

Gaming industry survey data imply urgent need for NJ casinos outside Atlantic City

Typically, I like to post about my suspect handicapping skill and inability to take down a handicapping contest, but in my real line of work as a financial editor this week, I came across an interesting survey that obviously NJ's Governor Christie has not read but hints at a continued downward spiral for Atlantic City and that just maybe it is time for the Garden State to embrace casino gaming outside the misnomered "Vegas of the East."

The American Gaming Association's 2011 State of the States survey of casino entertainment revealed some startling, albeit unsurprising data that, in my opinion, hints that Mr. Christie and the Legislature might want to reconsider kowtowing to Atlantic City lobbyists and doing what is best for the state's tax coffers, creating jobs and stemming the outflow of cash to neighboring casino states New York, Pennsylvania and Delaware. To be sure, competition will only intensify in the Empire State, with Resorts World New York, the casino at Aqueduct, slated to open this summer, while plans evidently are underway for a "racino" at Belmont Park and a new arena for the NHL's Islanders.

In my view, Mr. Christie's incessant hammering of NJ's racing industry and his need to cut off the annual "subsidies" from casinos that propped up the racing business (and kept them quiet about slot gaming at the tracks) was ill-conceived and only obscured what is the chronic defection of wagerers from Atlantic City and a faulty business model that cannot match Las Vegas.  Separate from the AGA survey, I obtained figures showing that, between 2007 and year-end 2010, revenue generated by AC casinos declined by a compound annual average of 7.4%, with 2009 and 2010 reflecting double-digit declines amid the recession and slow recovery.  The notion that diverting tax dollars to "revive" AC and help complete another mega-casino (Revel) in an overly saturated AC market is utterly foolhardy and akin to Alec Baldwin's character Shelly Kaplow in the 2003 film The Cooler, who was stuck in the mentality of the old-world Las Vegas.

"Let me tell you something, Harvard,
come upstairs with me in my office, watch
and learn how to protect your investments
the old-school way."

Meanwhile, the AGA survey makes clear where this revenue is likely going, with Philadelphia quickly the No. 1 U.S. Racetrack Casino market in the U.S.  Yonkers is No. 2, while Dover, DE is No. 6 and three Pennsylvania markets (Grantville, Meadow Lands and Wilkes-Barre) ranked 8th, 9th and 10th.

Interesting, too, is that AGA reports that New Jersey saw the nation's biggest decline in consumer spending on gaming in 2010 (down 9.4%) and commercial casino tax revenue skidded 12.1%, the highest in the nation (by nearly five percentage points to No. 2 West Virginia).  At the same time, Atlantic City's 11-casino workforce fell by 6%, but remained the clear No. 2 behind Nevada. Furthermore, consider that Nevada has 25x the number of casinos (259, according to the AGA survey) than the Garden State but only 175,000 "commercial casino jobs" (as classified in the survey), or one-fifth the number per casino (675 for Nevada, 3,100 for AC).

Although I certainly understand the effort to sustain employment and make Atlantic City vibrant, the Governor is clearly missing the point that gaming at the Meadowlands, and perhaps Monmouth Park, must at least be considered, if not embraced, to stem the defection of casino and horseplayers to neighboring states.

Anyway, the AGA Survey is a worthwhile read, and as always I welcome your feedback.  I simply think that horseplayers should remain abreast of this kind of industry data.

The kind of story the industry needs to promote

Over lunch I read this piece on DRF.com, noting that a horseplayer at Sunland Park hit a $96 Pick-6 ticket that paid $752k!

There is no handicapping contest perspective here, but rather a random argument that these kinds of scores need to be marketed more prominently than in an industry trade publication in order to draw new customers to the sport.  In my view, host tracks should treat the publicity of handicapping contests with more detail - let us know the individuals, their strategies, great selections, etc...the kind of light this blog hopes to shed, even if only a little.

This idea is coincidentally bolstered by two other pieces in DRF - one showing a 5% increase in Preakness Stakes viewers (signaling that there is some intrigue in the sport and people will watch and participate), and another "critiquing" NBC's usually predictable coverage of Saturday's Preakness and how the mainstream media have let thoroughbred racing slip through the cracks, save for the Triple Crown (forget the other 362 days). 

Food for thought over your lunch break...

Preakness Day debacle

Realistically, unless I could have miraculously gone 12-for-12 on the Monmouth Park slate during this weekend's Horseplayer World Series contest, there was no chance of winning that event, which from the looks of it hinged on picking the correct Preakness Stakes winner.  Congrats to Tony Dadas of Middletown, NJ who did that by nailing a $40W/$20P wager on Shackleford to turn his $30 starting bankroll into $663.50 of winnings, plus the $2,590 first-place pool and a seat to the February 2012 HWS in Las Vegas!

Another great debacle...

The afternoon proved horrific for me, going only 1 (a show wager) for 11 with three second-place finishers and my worst-played race of the season, when in a four-horse field I liked but passed on Perfect Embrace in the 7th and fatefully put a third of my bankroll on favorite So Much Love, who finished a fading second to a $13.20 winner. The handwriting was on the wall, as Red Rock Or Bust and Papa NJ Horseplayer also had fruitless, though enjoyable, afternoons.

There was otherwise nothing to write home about, considering my expectation that Sway Away could compete in the Preakness, which clearly did not happen.

Next up: the NHC Tour contest at Monmouth Park on Sunday, June 5, where maybe I'll let my kids make my contest selections for me as we spend the afternoon in the picnic area.

Monmouth's first live contest Saturday

The 12-race card at Monmouth tomorrow afternoon is not the most appealing, and two turf races have already been taken off the dirt in light of wetness, but the $50 handicapping contest for a spot in the Horseplayer World Series in Vegas next February is likely to come down to the Preakness, which is the final race of the contest (6:16 p.m. ET).  That is, of course, if we can avoid a repeat of last year's event, where the eventual winner nailed a 102-to-1 shot to run away very early with the top prize. 

It is nearly impossible to get a great feel of the contest card, considering the uncertain track conditions, but much like last week's TVG contest preview, I have identified a few prospects:

• Monmouth - Race 1: Sammy's Trip (5-to-1) is fourth choice in a 7-horse $20k maiden claimer, and the field is awful top to bottom, but a replay of this one's April 7 mile-turf race at Gulfstream showed the horse checked slightly very early (not noted in the past performances) before the first turn and ran evenly thereafter at a $35k condition. The 3-to-2 M/L favorite, Stimulus Program, may be deserving of such short odds, but the 4-month layoff following a 6th-place showing at Gulfstream and 10-week layoff before the next workout, in my view, do not inspire for such a short-priced horse, and I was not the least bit enamored with the second and third choices, so I may land here if 4-to-1 or more.
  
• Monmouth - Race 3: Green's Hard Ten (3-to-1). Yeah, there's really not much glory in calling a morning-line second-choice in a meager 6-horse field, but this one gets jockey Wilfredo Corujo, who is 0-for-9 to start the meet and 6-for-144 in 2011 (a meaty 4% win percentage).  I am hoping that the bettors dismiss Green's Hard Ten based on the jockey, but they would be remiss to do so based on some past races, notably the April 15 turf race at a mile-and-a-sixteenth at Gulfstream.  The horse's bold 5-wide middle move against comparable claimers is a bullish indicator for me on the cutback to six furlongs, IF the jockey avoids traffic (which shouldn't be hard in a 6-horse field).
  
• Preakness Stakes: The format for Saturday's contest (a $50 buy-in, with each player getting a $30 bankroll and the other $20 put to the contest pot, divided among the top 10 finishers) includes win, place or show (and combinations thereof) wagers on the 12 Monmouth races and Preakness, where I keep looking at Sway Away (15-to-1) and King Congie (20-to-1) as viable long-shots. I was bearish on California shippers in the Kentucky Derby, but Sway Away's San Vincente effort at Santa Anita in February (2nd to The Factor) was visually impressive, and if Garrett Gomez can be more patient with this one than Patrick Valenzuela in the Arkansas Derby (a key race), I think Sway Away will have a shot at speed-favoring Pimlico. Otherwise, King Congie was a very game third in the Bluegrass at Keeneland on April 16, and I know seems like a grass-synthetics type, but I anticipate the pace will not nearly resemble the dawdling 48.3 and 1:13.2 fractions of the Kentucky Derby, and this horse can close well into what I expect will be a strong pace scenario. Right now I'm thinking Sway Away, but the point may be moot, depending on whether I can preserve enough contest bankroll for the finale. 

Indiana player runs away with TVG contest

NTRA identified Shannon Brough of Salem, Indiana as the winner of Saturday's free TVG online contest, and this winner deserves tremendous credit for amassing a $184.20 bankroll with mythical $2 win-place wagers on 10 races.  Anyone who had picked all 10 winners of the races from Monmouth, Belmont and Hollywood would have amassed $197.90, suggesting that Shannon probably nailed all but one contest race - WOW!

Congrats to Shannon and two other players for earning berths to the 2012 NHC Tour Championship! I managed to finish 210th out of 3,306 competitors (top 8%), which isn't worth much in the grand scheme, but rarely do I get my hopes up about these free-for-alls, considering the depth of contestants, so I'm satisfied having nailed a few winners, including one I addressed on Saturday by way of video analysis, Chokecherymary.  Here were my selections:

• Monmouth, Race 6 - Itsagoodtendollars, 4-to-1 (6th out of 8): Originally landed on Marquet Rebel (finished 7th), but Turbo Compressor proved every bit the 6-to-5 chalk in a 13-and-a-half length win
• Monmouth, Race 7 - Steady Gentleman, 44-to-1 (5th out of 7): It look's like we're not at the Elite Meet anymore...back to smallish fields and a low-teens exacta payout...
• Monmouth, Race 8 - Primary Witness, 8-to-1 (3rd out of 7): The first of three calls from Saturday's blog, Witness stalked well but flatted out in the final turn. Zero bankroll with 7 races to go.
• Belmont, Race 8 - Hear the Footsteps, 8-to-1 (3rd out of 10): See Witness - flattened out the final 300 yards, but a good effort after almost half a year off and worth considering next time around.
• Belmont, Race 9 - Beer Meister, 26-to-1 (7th out of 10): Who was more drunk - me for picking this horse or Alex Solis confusing Meister Brau for Zenyatta and setting this horse up for a 20-length rally? Never happened... 
• Belmont, Race 10 - Isn'tlovejustgrand, 56-to-1 (4th out of 12): This could have been a potential game-changer for a lot of contest players, myself included (though not enough likely to win, since I was 0-for-5 heading into this race and needed some big prices), but this one finished a hard-closing length behind the 9-to-1 winner to provide some cheap thrills, zero bankroll notwithstanding...
• Hollywood, Race 5 - Every Ego, 25-to-1 (WIN: 1st out of 9): The caveat to these online contest is that notional payouts are capped at $42 and place at $22, so this one netted $58.60 and moved me to the top 300 in one fell swoop. Two very bullish indicators - Rafael Bejarano got the mount and this 3-year-old was meant for 2-turn grass as an offspring of El Prado and Grindstone.  Plus, the rest of the field was very suspect, in my opinion, and all angles worked as Bejarano rode to perfection.
• Hollywood, Race 6 - Chokecherymary, 5-to-1 (WIN: 1st out of 9): Although I knew I pretty much had no chance of placing Top 3 in the contest, I stuck with my earlier handicapping rather than fishing for a bigger price and was rewarded $13.20 to win and $6.40 to place, moving me to 124th place with a $78.20 notional bankroll.  As noted Saturday, replays of this horse's first two tries indicated this horse was live, and by all indications, Chantal Sutherland is off to a strong start at the Hollywood meet.  Chantal rode this 3-year-old filly to a 2-and-a-half length victory and is one to watch down the road. 
• Hollywood, Race 7 - Unbridled Kimanchi, 42-to-1 (last out of 11): I was between eventual winner Smug, 22-to-1 Tiz Gianni and 36-to-1 Competent, but thought this one might run to the lead and somehow hold on, but it never happened as Kimanchi sat a head behind the leader at the three-quarter pole in 1:11.2 before fading to dead last. 
• Hollywood, Race 8 - Price, 5-to-1 (3rd out of 5): Nothing like a deep 5-horse Cal-bred field to close out a contest. Price finished about a half-length behind the winner Korban, ending the contest.

In the end, two winners and three thirds (5 out of 10 "in the money") plus a fourth at an enormous price is something to build upon heading into the upcoming Monmouth Park contest for a seat in the less-ballyhooed Horseplayer World Series next February. On the other hand, considering the thin fields on opening weekend relative to the 2010 Elite Meet and that only two horses at double-digit odds won their races (11 of the 23 winners this past weekend were odds-on favorites at Monmouth), it is going to take a much better performance and, hopefully, a reversal favoring value-seeking contest handicappers.