An Angelic 2023 Kentucky Derby?

(Updated 5/6/23, 930a ET for scratches of Practical Move, Lord Miles, Continuar, Skinner and now Forte)

Kentucky Derby analysis is as much a crapshoot as predicting the NFL draft. 

Much as the Houston Texans destroyed months or even a year of "experts" 2023 NFL mocks by first drafting a QB and then trading up to the No. 3 pick, a lot can happen once those Churchill Downs gates just before 7 p.m. ET this Saturday to destroy overprognostication. 

It's best to take each of those distinct events for the entertainment value...and with a grain of salt. The same goes for consuming my analysis, though to me this feels a lot like 2007, one of my more successful Derby forays. 

Toss reason out the window and recognize the Run for the Roses is a one-off crapshoot of up to 20 starters, many with no shot and merely vehicles to fulfill some thoroughbred owners' dreams to say they had a Derby starter. Sure, 80-1 Rich Strike got extremely lucky last year, but he went 0-5 in subsequent stakes starts and his jockey is back to riding the lesser racing circuits. 

There are a lot of similar types entered this Saturday, but I suppose that's what makes it fun.

Now, I'm still a little bitter about Rich Strike running down my horse (Epicenter) in the stretch last year AND about top selection Maximum Security's DQ from first in 2019 but will give it another try in picking a winner. 

This year I give the slight edge to Angel of Empire over Forte. Both will be prominent on my tickets and likely paired with Tapit Trice and a few long-shots "underneath" as part of the trifecta box.

I'm not saying those horses will amount to 2007's top three -- Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin; all legends -- but much as two-year-old champ Street Sense was let go 16 years ago at almost 5-1, there are similarities to Forte, who is the 3-1 favorite but has more than his fair share of doubters. I speculate you could see 4-1 or 9-2, which is worthwhile as a win-bet proposition.

Here's how I rank the field, with thoughts on each horse. The pace may not be as testy as in years past, considering there doesn't seem to be need-the-lead types who'll set blistering fractions or elite speed runners like Justify. I see this as a more grind-it-out where my top three could outlast the field.  

Winner

#14, Angel of Empire (8-1): Trainer Brad Cox bring a runner with humble beginnings (maiden debut win at Indiana Grand last August, followed by two allowance races) but which has greatly matured with impressive back-to-back wins in the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby. Flavien Prat was his 5th jockey in six starts for the last victory and rides again. Gets decent enough post, has won on dry and wet surfaces and has been dismissed in his last three races (18-1, 13-1 and 9-2). Don't sleep on this one.

Trifecta Prospects

#5, Tapit Trice (5-1): This is the consummate Todd Pletcher horse -- get easy wins under a horse's belt at Aqueduct, Gulfstream (optional claimer on Feb. 4) and Tampa Bay Downs (Grade 3 on March 11) to build confidence ahead of running for the roses. Can run all day, but more of a "B" selection considering recent competition. Really had to grind out Toyota Bluegrass win at Keeneland in April vs. Verifying, who's in the Derby but is way too short at 15-1 for a runner whose ceiling is an optional claiming win. I wouldn't be shocked if Tapit Trice wins, but this $1.3 million buy may go off as the favorite with top rider Luis Saez. Using in trifecta box for sure but not as a top-choice winner.

#22, Mandarin Hero (20-1): Well, got second horse (Lord Miles) to scratch in order to reach the starting gate. I'll sprinkle into trifecta and superfecta wagers as, to me, it takes a lot to ship from Japan to the U.S. in a five-week stretch and be as game as he was finishing second by a nose in the Santa Anita Derby to Practical Move. Might be the best Japanese horse of the bunch, despite Derma Sotogake's gaudy UAE victory.

#17, Derma Sotogake (10-1): Begrudging underneath play on tris and supers, but won't back Japanese horses winning the Derby until I see it. Always a lot of hype that day will come, yet winning preps like the UAE Derby don't mean much for my money. Being a pacesetter could help chances.

Egregious Longshot to Use Underneath

#13, Sun Thunder (50-1): A horse with blinkers the first time in a Kentucky Derby seems strange, but not an act of desperation if you watch replays (my primary source of handicapping the Derby) and notice that no horse has been ridden worse than this guy. Closer types don't often suit the Derby and help to explain this one's trouble lines the past three ; but to me there's enough to go on here to at least use this bomber in my trifecta and superfecta plays. Finished 2nd to Angel of Empire in the Risen Star, where he got stuck behind foes before making a nice move in the stretch before getting passed late. The Louisiana Derby a month later saw similar as jockey Brian Hernandez again ran the horse into traffic before finishing fifth. Just sense Hernandez has to get lucky at some point, just not enough to win. 

Mudder Prospects to Consider If Track's Sloppy

#3, Two Phil's (12-1): Won the Street Sense Stakes stylishly (say that 3x fast) as two-year-old on sloppy going at Churchill Downs late last October. Failed to progress much first two tries in three-year-old campaign but ran Jeff Ruby Steaks field off its toes at Turfway Park on March 25 and should be near the early pace. Might have seen the best of him that day, but the combination of synthetic and wet surface wins makes him a consideration if Churchill's a messy surface on Saturday.

#16, Raise Cain (50-1): Dusted the field in the Gotham on March 4 at Aqueduct on a sealed muddy track against weak competition but clearly loved the wet going. Pass if Churchill is fast.

#4, Confidence Game (20-1): Seems like a one-turn (mile distance or less) horse to me but relished the slop in winning the Rebel. Yet hasn't seen the track since that Feb. 25 victory and he's a cut below.

Taking a Pass

#1, Hit Show (30-1): Draws dreaded rail. Stalker and second-tier Brad Cox horse who needed to show something in the Wood Memorial on April 8 and got outgamed by a 59-1 shot to the finish line.

#2, Verifying (15-1): Morning line is way too low. See notation above. Yet to win stakes race.

#6, Kingsbarns (12-1): Later-starting 3-year-old for Todd Pletcher. Is 3-for-3 lifetime including Grade 2 Louisiana Derby win but, again, another you might want to bet this summer rather than now.

#7, Reincarnate (50-1): Needed 4 races to break maiden at Del Mar in late November under trainer Bob Baffert. This guy hasn't done much for new trainer Tim Yakteem. Looks like one-pace filler.

#8, Mage (15-1): Will be wiseguy horse on the TV broadcasts for good second vs. Forte in Florida Derby, but loses top current jockey and I think was ridden hard that race and still couldn't prevail. Sense you're getting underlay (between 9-1 and 12-1), which isn't worth it in 20-horse field.

#11, Disarm (30-1): Nothing stands out. Alarmingly needed six months off after two-year-old win at Saratoga. One-paced runner. Of course I've been beaten a bunch by Winchell Thoroughbreds-owned runners from the sire Gun Runner, but I'll stand against.

#12, Jace's Road (50-1): A very hard-ridden third in the Louisiana Derby to secure this entry. Not a sharp gate-breaker. Can see getting beat to the punch by Practical Move among early pace then quitting.

#18, Rocket Can (30-1): Little to suggest more than a midpack finish. Confidence Game showed more guts when head-to-head in stretch of late-November race, and I thnk the Holy Bull win that followed in early February was a bit of smoke and mirrors, struggling to hold off second- and third-place finishers that went off at 34-1 and 58-1. Looked standing still vs. Forte in Fountain of Youth. Love trainer Bill Mott but not here.

#21, Cyclone Mischief (30-1): Earns spot in starting gate by virtue of Practical Move's scratch due to minor illness. Ceiling is optional claiming win in early January, the one time he got Lasix. Some early lick, but not much else.

#23, King Russell (50-1): Third alternate enters after Continuar's trainer scratched his horse, citing dissatisfaction with fitness. Not using.

Scratches (as of 5/5/23, 10a ET)

#9, Skinner (SCR): Is 1-for-6 lifetime and grinding out enough points for connections to say they attended the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Lost to Practical Move twice when looked in the eye. Why would Saturday be any different?

#10, Practical Move (SCR): Not enamored with some of the tin cans he beat in California, but advantage here is his ability to break sharply. Knock is inexperienced Derby rider Ramon Vasquez, yet if he gets out of the starting gate clean and works toward the lead, I've seen enough to suggest Practical Move is a determined sort who won't quit. Held off Japanese shipper and Derby second alternate Mandarin Hero, who I think is sneaky good and a play underneath if drawn into the field. Love the determination from Practical Move, but more of a "B" or "C" type pick in my plays.

#15, Forte (SCR): Five-race win streak started with the Hopeful last Labor Day weekend at Saratoga and included the Breeders Cup Juvenile championship in November, then he started the 3-year-old campaign by romping in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on March 4. Analysts shouldn't dismiss his next-out win in the Florida Derby, which many criticized as not the most stylish. Yet the horse didn't need to win that race to enter the Derby starting gate and still won with a wide late run and not tons of prompting. Edge vs. Angel of Empire to his inside from the starting gate, but I sense you'll see Prat track jockey Irad Ortiz's flank on Saturday and have a bit more late. Expect 1-2 finish.

#19, Lord Miles (SCR): Excited for Monmouth Park's top jockey Paco Lopez and hope he doesn't ride reckless. Should be in the mix early from wide post but seems a cut below. 

#20, Continuar (SCR): Japanese import who finished far behind Derma Sotogake in UAE Derby. 

CHRB Needs to DQ the Stewards

Still fuming that the winner of Sunday's Wicker Stakes at Del Mar drifted out about 7-8 paths into my onrushing horse in the stretch and cost him -- and me, the horseplayer -- the win and several dollars, I wanted to delve a bit into the disqualification issue at California's thoroughbred race tracks, namely to gain a better understanding of the process both in- and after-race.

Perhaps my research isn't the most scientific or journalistic, but for a general lack of time to conduct exhaustive research and interviews, I focused on a small sample of races since late-2017 where I recalled key disqualifications or non-DQs.

The findings are eye-opening and support my argument that the California Horse Racing Board needs to more-closely examine the highly inconsistent decisions of its referees and how they impact all parties, including paying customers, and a sport that's already rife with integrity questions. 

Most of us who support the sport recognize the risk that supposedly neutral observers -- state-licensed "race stewards" --  could make rulings we disagree with, largely in races involving claims of foul by jockeys, or in cases of "inquiry," where the stewards on their own will review a race where there's potential fouling and one horse compromised another's chances for placement. 

I'd never really questioned the integrity of the stewards or the decision-making process of these arbiters (the sport's rooted in gambling, so...), giving the benefit of the doubt that it's a difficult job that requires much training, licensing and rules interpretation and can cost the customer a lot of money.

Yet, the deeper I dig, the more I question the motives of the stewards and, for that matter, whether they're qualified to make racing DQ decisions, or better equipped to hand out soft-serve ice cream at your local DQ -- Dairy Queen.   

The ensuing samples show curious cases of clear jockey favoritism, horses not being summarily DQ'd for drifting out several paths into other horses' lanes, and of a rider being suspended for 3 days for an incident that never came up as an objection or stewards' inquiry after the race.

Feel free to comment, but overall there's a substantial case to be made about the competency of California's thoroughbred racing stewards.  

Sunday, July 22 -- Del Mar, Wicker Stakes

The Case: Dangerous riding, drifting and interference by the winner. 

Evidence: It's clear from the video, particularly the head-on view that the three stewards reviewed ("inquiry") for a good 6-7 minutes, that the horse that crossed the finish line first impeded another. 

Double Touch, #13, takes the lead in the stretch but drifts halfway out into the middle of the track, herds 3-4 other horses toward the grandstand, and bumps and potentially intimidates Bombard, #14 before the wire. Double Touch wins the photo finish, but a stewards' inquiry is declared. Surprisingly, Bombard's jockey and/or trainer didn't lodge an objection against Double Touch jockey Gary Stevens for failing to maintain his line and creating interference in the stretch.

Stewards Decision: No blood, no foul.

Outcomes: Bettors who had Double Touch cashed big on a 25-to-1 bomber, while mine and several others' win wagers on 8-to-1 Bombard were kaput. Minutes from this week's stewards meeting (page 7) make zero reference to a fine or reprimand vs. Stevens for riding dangerously, and had the audacity to say that Bombard drifted out too, which I'd argue was jockey Flavian Prat recognizing that Stevens' was rolling at him at almost 40 MPH. Sort of like being in Lane 5 of a sprint but moving to the right a little when you see Usain Bolt invading your space from all the way over in Lane 1. Common sense says to move the hell out of the way to avoid getting steamrolled.

NJ Horseplayer take: Based on the ire of several people on Twitter who either bet or just watched the race, Double Touch should have been disqualified and placed second. I complete agree. I should have been cashing winning wagers, as well as higher up the leaderboard of the Del Mar Online Contest instead of being in 180th-place out of 4,162 contestants as of this writing. 

Saturday, July 21 -- Del Mar Race 9

The Case: Jockey gets a seemingly egregious suspension from riding for, in essence, failing to ride his horse in a straight line.

Interesting, since...isn't that what Stevens did in the Wicker a day later?

Evidence: Below, watch #9, Truck Salesman, a 2-year-old making his first-ever start. Jockey Kyle Frye gets a clean lead and maintains TS's line until the stretch, where after a left-hand tap of the whip the colt tires a bit and comes into the path of fourth-place finisher Synthesis. The top three finishers were unaffected. 

Steward's Decision: Not Applicable, since there was no claim of foul by another rider vs. Frye or an inquiry into the stretch run that would merit an action such as a DQ.

Outcome: A look at the official race chart from Equibase makes zero mention of any sort of shenanigans in the stretch by Truck Salesman. Yet, in "Ruling #002" by the stewards from July 22, Frye was suspended 3 racing days for "failure to maintain a straight course in the stretch and causing interference. This constitutes a violation of California Horse Racing Board Rule #1699 (Riding Rules-Careless Riding)."

NJHorseplayer Take: Perhaps the jockey had prior warnings for similar race riding that substantiate severe 3-day penalty, but from afar the infraction seems minuscule vs. Stevens' Wicker. The cynic in me wonders whether the steward here wanted to teach the 26-year-old Frey a lesson, whereas they took no action on a Hall of Fame jockey riding for a trainer on the cusp of his first stakes win.

Sunday, May 6 -- Santa Anita Park Race 8

The Case: Winning horse ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith fails to maintain its lane, carries 2-3 of his opponents into the middle of the track during the stretch, then drifts back in before crossing the wire first.

The Background: I couldn't find a direct link of the video to post here, but it's available on Cal Racing.com and author John Cherwa gives a great account of the incident in the May 10 Los Angeles Times, including some excellent feedback from racing experts and stewards' rulings.

Steward's Decision: Our old friend -- Rule #1699 -- rears its head. The stewards made no change to the race-order finish, leaving prohibitive favorite Achira as the winner, while Geovanni Franco (who lodged a claim of foul vs. Smith...rightfully so) and runner-up Helen Hillary and that horse's connections and backers drew the short straw. But, hey, according to the stewards subsequent meeting minutes (pg. 7-8), Smith had to go back and attend a "film review" on May 10.

Outcome: Bettors who backed Helen Hillary may be angry to learn that Smith wasn't disqualified for his actions aboard Achira on May 6, but on May 10 was handed a four-day suspension (May 17-20) for, ahem, "failure to maintain a straight course and causing interference in the stretch."

NJHorseplayer Take: The ruling sounds harsh on the surface, but in hindsight is feckless, considering that Smith's suspension in California happened to be for a period when the steward knew full well that he'd be riding Justify in the Preakness Stakes in Maryland. I'm not saying that Smith should have been locked up or anything, but the CHRB is starting to look more clownish by the minute, and horseplayers who lost hard-earned money betting the victims of the race interference get zero solace in learning a few days later about a suspension, when on May 6 the stewards made a horrendous decision and bent the rules or had zero understanding of how to apply them. 

Saturday, March 10 -- Santa Anita Park, San Felipe Stakes 

I won't belabor this or the next example, but watch the replay, and read Cherwa's take in the LA Times. Smith comes out on the short end this time when DQ'd aboard apparent winner #4 McKinzie for "aggressive bumping" in the stretch, after #1 Bolt d'Oro (awarded the win by virtue of disqualification) clearly slams into him turning into the homestretch. I didn't bet this race, but watching it live and after several replay views would have made no change. Clearly the steward disagreed, first changing the order of finish, then suspending Smith three days for the incident. Read the quote from trainer Bob Baffert in the Cherwa story, pretty interesting.

Saturday, December 9, 2017 -- Los Alamitos Futurity

Another involving McKinzie. This time a suspect disqualification of a winner with obvious momentum and who looked sharper than the others, and the stewards' curious explanation. I was unable to find any follow-up investigation by the CHRB, but figure there wasn't one, since it's Los Alamitos and the officials probably wanted to move their meeting around then along to get out quicker and do their Christmas shopping.

Again, feel free to draw your own conclusions. However, as horseplayers, you'll agree that it's hard enough when you put in your work and find winners, then have it all blown up by inconsistent stewards incapable of fairly applying the rules and avoiding controversy. From the videos and other citations above, CHRB stewards are all over the map in their race-day and follow-up determinations. The state's governing body needs do something about it, namely to restore faith that horseplayers -- the core customer -- will get consistent and fair treatment on DQ rulings.

Fun, Free Contest for 2 NHC Seats

Summer officially arrived almost a month ago, but for most horseplayers the best part of it begins this week with the start of the boutique race meetings in Saratoga, NY and Del Mar, CA.

I've already got dates on my calendar to hit the Spa -- less than a four-hour drive from the NJ Horseplayer headquarters -- and haven't been to Del Mar yet, though it's a bucket-list item and a place near and dear to my heart.

That's because I qualified for my first National Horseplayers (nee Handicapping) Championship -- "the NHC" -- via this contest four seasons ago.

The 2018 edition kicks off this Wednesday, July 18. Register here.

The premise is simple -- parlay a $100 mythical per day into the one of the two biggest bankrolls by contest's end on Sept. 3 and win a berth to NHC#19 in Las Vegas in February 2019.

Tour membership is not required for the top prizes, so if you've considered trying a handicapping tournament and are not an NHC Tour member, Del Mar provides a great opportunity; if nothing else than to sharpen your skills or to kick the tires.

Sounds easy, right?

It's anything but, considering you'll go against a few thousand folks, from the novice who'll play names, favorite numbers, etc., to the extremely skilled...to the players who'll only play horses at gigantic odds in hopes of winning with a few.

As the second-place finisher in 2014, and as discussed in the post-contest recap linked here, the key of course is to identify winners, but also "value." A few words to the wise:

• Avoid playing horses at odds of less than 5-to-2. The reward for putting $100 (again, mythical dollars) on a runner who's 8-to-5 isn't worth the risk. You can't win this kind of contest playing favorites. You'd have to hit 40-50% of your wagers to have a chance in such a format. If you're in love with a short-priced favorite, just sit out the race that day; you only need to make 20 "wagers" over the contest to qualify for prizes.
• Find the overlays. In my 2014 contest, Meinertzhageni was 8-to-1 on the morning line and completely ignored by the bettors, but a logical horse who'd press the pace and showed speed in the past. The horse went off at 29-to-1 and won easily, vaulting me to the top of the leaderboard. 
• If you have time to wait until close to post time to make your daily play, absolutely monitor the live tote and take into consideration horses that the odds-maker thinks has a shot but is dead on the board.
• $100 Win Wagers ONLY. Again referring to my 2014 link spreadsheet, there's not a lot of value in playing place and show wagers in this format. There are simply too many players, and with no real money on the line, contestants will predominantly go "all in" with win plays. I recommend doing the same, and will take that approach myself this season.
• The only wagers allowed, by the way, are win, place and/or show, and to count as a "qualifying" play, you must use the full $100 daily bankroll.
• Sign up and enjoy! Again, zero cost to enter, and Del Mar provides free past performances for your use to make educated decisions on some great races where the turf meets the surf. 

When Contest Handicapping and Trainer Intent Collide

Trainers are willing to lose a race from time to time.

Well, except for Chad Brown, at least when I "bet against." 

At those points, it's best for you to the sprint to the window and bet his entries.

Your house will be safe, so feel free to go "all in" and bet it on the Chadster when I'm chilly.

Seriously though...

"Trainer intent" has become a bigger angle in my handicapping, and can be for you, particularly in assessing today's "free" NHC Tour qualification tournament.

I have zero inside knowledge, but often consider why a trainer will picks a certain spot to run his or her horse. Once in awhile you'll get bits of information from an on-track interview on TVG, a track's in-house feed or on social media.

Yet otherwise, we're often left to speculate.

In the context of a handicapping contest, I usually try to identify the most-vulnerable favorites on the card and reasons behind those vulnerabilities, since the only way to make waves in a handicapping contest with over 2,000 entrants -- many shooting for huge long-shots -- is to find a credible few.

This morning was no different in preparing for the 12-race card, with one horse in particular meeting my core parameters -- an over-rested horse that's likely to be overbet and is using the current race to prep for an even bigger one.

Hawksmoor

This accomplished mare is making the first start of her five-year-old campaign in the Dahlia B at Laurel Park -- Race 7, scheduled to run at 4:10 p.m. ET.

This $100,000 stakes race will go one mile on the turf and has scratched down to 8 runners.

In my opinion, Hawksmoor will be sent off below her 7-to-5 morning line, probably in the 2-to-5 or 3-to-5 range. So bettors and contest players alike will be lucky to get about a dollar of profit for every two on a win wager.

I'm not averse to playing favorites in contests or in cash betting, but in this case I'll speculate that this race checks off a few boxes for trainer Arnaud Delacour:

• Really soft field
• Preferred surface (turf)
• "Paid workout," e.g. a chance to pick up an easy $60,000 winner's share for owner Lael Stables, perhaps best known as the owners and breeders of the late, great Barbaro
• Easy prep for a graded stakes race

Key "knocks": 0-for-5 in North American races outside of Belmont Park,
1-for-5 at the 1-mile distance on turf, and prepping for a bigger future race

Hawksmoor is entirely capable of a rout, even if not 100% on her game.

We're talking about a three-time graded stakes winner (Grades 2 and 3) who is three lengths shy of back-to-back Grade 1 wins last autumn at the prestigious Keeneland and Del Mar Bing Crosby meets. The last time we saw her was in late November, a length behind Off Limits in the Matriarch.

Rested...and Ready?

Hawksmoor was given more than two months of rest before returning to training on February 9, and she has consistently worked well leading up to today.

Her front-running style should play favorably under Julien Leparoux, one of the best turf riders in North America, and especially more with the scratch of 5-to-1 I'm Betty G, another gal who was sure to pressure the early pace.

There's a cheap sprinter shipping in from Penn National, but doesn't belong on the same track with Hawksmoor, who's nearing the $1 million mark in lifetime winnings in just three years.

One could argue that all of the other runners fit the same profile, though I'm willing to bet the connections are not as concerned with winning today's race so much as Hawksmoor coming out of it healthy and ready for the Grade 3 Gallorette at Pimlico on Preakness Day, as she's been nominated for that one along with several other top runners -- certainly better ones than in the Dahlia.

Broken Bridle Is Worth a Look

Figuring that Hawksmoor and the 6, 30-to-1 Tanya's Gem (the aforementioned Penn shipper), set the tempo, I'm playing a horse that should sit just off the pace, has been in the winner's circle before...

...and whose connections probably want to win the race.

Broken Bridle, the 7, fits the bill at odds of 12-to-1.

This five-year-old mare also is making her 2018 debut. She hasn't run since late August at Laurel, but has hit the board in 9 of 10 starts at that track and sports several snappy works in preparation for today's stakes try. 

She finished ninth of 10 in her lone stakes attempt, the Grade 3 Commonwealth Oaks in September 2016, but ran gamely and I sense is tuned up enough for local trainer Gary Capuano. 

And this is no Grade 3 field, except for Hawksmoor.

Broken Bridle is not only the kind of horse worth playing in a notional-money handicapping contest, as she'll likely draw minimal attention based on a so-so background, she's also a use on my Pick 3 and 4 wagers on the side.

No matter what happens in the Dahlia, I think it's important for horseplayers to think a little bit more about trainers' motivations for entering their horses and to consider that, often, the goal for today's race may be more about a better opportunity down the road. 

Trying My Hand as a Public Handicapper

So, earlier this week I received a surprise email from Scott Carson, founder of Public Handicapper, to be an "editor" for the site's "The Winter of Our Discontent Holiday Handicap" contest, which kicks off Saturday and runs through January 28.

NJ Horseplayer seen weekly at
www.publichandicapper.com

As an enormous fan of public service, and since I've been a regular PH.com participant for the last 5-6 years, I jumped at the chance to volunteer to break down and make publicly available selections on four of the top U.S. thoroughbred races each weekend.

Plus, I add to the already-charismatic roster of expert editors whose role, outside of winning the contest, is to provide insights that may help bettors win money at the track.

Mine and my colleagues selections can be found here each week, with analysis on each race (as of Thursday night there was a technical glitch that hid my analysis of my first two picks, but that'll be fixed shortly). 

For those new to the Public Handicapper, it's a free handicapping contest site where players make mythical $2 win wagers on 1-4 races per week and at least one hours before the listed post-time for each race.

The winner is the person who accrues the highest bankroll in the tournament after meeting the minimum requirement to make selections in 12 of the contest races.

Prizes for this particular tournament are largely cash and consolation-types (i.e. free past performances), coming off the May-November contest that awards two valuable seats annually to the National Handicapping Championship (NHC).

In that one, I finished in the Top 200 (of 4,000-plus contestants), which is the best I've ever done in what is a rigorous grind where the races are difficult and the competition top-notch.

The winter of discontent contest that begins on Saturday is a perfect example, featuring three extremely deep and difficult races from Gulfstream Park in Miami, FL, and a 12-horse, Grade 1 turf race at Del Mar in San Diego, CA.

If anyone has questions about joining the contest, let me know and I'll try to help. Otherwise, just click the "Sign Up to Play" link on the site's left toolbar and follow the simple instructions.  

And remember to click on "Editor's Picks" up top to get mine and the other experts' selections and analysis...and I just might tip a half-full pint of Guinness your way as a sign of goodwill.

If my picks don't work out for you, remember that you get what you pay for (my services are free).

Bing Crosby Contest Starts Today

It's last-minute notice, but if you're interested in a free shot at a seat to the 2017 National Handicapping Championship (NHC), entering Del Mar's online handicapping challenge by this afternoon could be your ticket.

Del Mar in San Diego, CA, kicks off its "Bing Crosby" meet this afternoon.  The season, and handicapping contest, run through December 4, and again they're offering players a free, online tournament for two berths to the NHC.

Here's where you sign up: https://www.dmtc.com/contest/31.

As there's no cost to play I can't complain, but the format has been changed this year to one that I'm admittedly not crazy about.

Consistent with years past, players get a mythical $100 bankroll per day on which to place bets on a pre-selected race each racing day. In years past the wagers were limited to win, place and/or show, and payouts were capped at a robust 30-to-1.

This year, Del Mar has broadened the "wagering" card to exactas and trifectas and removed the cap.

The benefit for players who like to play those wagers is that one major score could be the difference.

The drawback is that it's not really about picking winners anymore, the basis upon which the NHC champion is determined each season. I see the positives and negatives, but for the latter think that someone can just get lucky playing a $100 trifecta with their three favorite numbers and getting lucky.

Regardless, I'm entered to play (user name "billhobo") and have had success in the past, qualifying for the 2015 NHC through Del Mar's summer contest.

It's a lot of fun to play, so make sure to enter; and for NHC Tour players it's a must, since Tour points are awarded to the Top 10% of finishers, consistent with other NHC-focused contests.

Last Call for Free Shot at $10k Breeders Cup Betting Challenge Entry

Your chance of winning is 0.0002%, but anyone interested in competing in a handicapping tournament, DRF Tournaments is hosting a free shot at a $10,000 paid entry, plus travel, to the 2016 Breeders Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) at Santa Anita Park on November 4-5.

As of ~noon ET there were about 500 spots remaining in a pick-and-pray tournament capped at 5,000 entries (one per person), so if you're interested enter here.

For any NJ Horseplayer readers new to the handicapping concept theme, the premise of today's event is simple -- before 4:20 p.m. ET, select the winners of 7 races and cross your fingers.

You will make mythical $2 win-place wagers on these races and attempt to build the highest bankroll by contest's end.  Notional caps are 20-to-1 ($42) on the win end and 10-to-1 ($22) on place; so if the winning horse pays $100 to win and $50 to place at the track, best you can do for contest purposes is the $64 maximum score.

The prospect of beating 4,999 other players are meager, but at the very least one you can take advantage of free DRF past performances to break down races 7-10 from Saratoga and 1-3 at Del Mar in the hopes of accruing the largest bankroll by contest's end to lock in a sweet prize.  It seems that DRF Tournaments also added $50 consolation prizes (in account credit) for the second through twenty-first place finishers.

The BCBC is a live-bankroll tournament where players compete for an estimated $1 million prize pool.  The National Handicapping Championship (NHC) Tour, of which I am a member, gets more notoriety for its $2.5 million year-end tournament in Las Vegas, but the BCBC is hosted on what is North America's greatest racing weekend.  The races generally are tremendous and opportunities to score major winnings are abundant.  It's worthwhile at least taking a shot at today's free tourney.

If you do enter, the DRF Tournaments website is improving, but there are still a few aspects of the contest interface that lag others on the market.

You need to pick your top choice ("select primary pick") and alternate in case your primary is scratched from the race ("select alternate pick"), but be aware that your top choice will be negated if your backup selection is scratched and you will need to re-enter your top choice (and a new secondary selection, of course) manually.

That's exactly what happened to me this morning when my backup scratched from Race 8 at Saratoga, which is a significant quirk.  Had I not been paying attention, my top selection (12-to-1 Baby Bear's Soup) would have defaulted to a post-time favorite that I do not think will win.  This does not happen on other online contest sites; so regular players used to HorseTourneys.com or Horseplayersqualify.com need to be cautious in this regard.

Also, if unlike me you are not on the beach and you want to keep a live track of the leaderboard, in the few NHC-focused contests I have entered, updates tend to be clunky.  Prepare for slower response times than on rival sites.  It is easier just to check back at contest's end to avoid any frustration.

Otherwise, I appreciate the fact that the BCBC operators sponsored today's contest, where I am winging it a bit with the following selections.  Good luck to all who enter!

• Saratoga 7, #6, Skylar's Pass (12-to-1): A first-time starter like most of the others entered but with some snappy works and out of The Factor, who I remember as a precocious sprinter.
• Del Mar 1, #7, Tiz Jolie (6-to-1): Prefer the rider switch to one known to like the front end in a bottom-level race where the leader could wire the field.
• Saratoga 8, #2, Baby Bear's Soup (12-to-1): Front-end type who seems to like one-turn races and dominated lesser last out but who ran against tougher in his first four lifetime races.
• Del Mar 2, #6, Look Twice (7-to-2): Similar thesis to Baby Bear's Soup.
• Saratoga 9, #12, Sugar Mags (15-to-1): Several prior races fit with today's field and sense Joel Rosario can get a clean trip and close into a quick pace, akin to my score on Saturday with 14-to-1 Irish Prayer in the Saratoga finale. 
• Del Mar 3, #4, Friulian (10-to-1): Scratched from a deeper and tougher $80k optional claimer on Saturday for a softer spot here against only six others at the $62k allowance condition.
• Saratoga 10, #7, Means Well (15-to-1): Colts Neck Stables is in walking distance to my house and I rarely like their horses when shipped to Saratoga, but the morning line is ludicrous for a horse who, although trying a turf sprint for the first time in 19 starts, I think will appreciate a distance cutback and a field rife with front-end speed that can melt down late; look for a late charge here to the wire to secure my $10,000 BCBC prize. 

2 Free NHC Seats, Tour Points Up For Grabs In Del Mar Online

"Cool As Ever" is appropriate branding for a free NHC-focused handicapping contest offered by Del Mar Thoroughbred Club and that gets underway with Friday's start of the prestigious summer meet.

NJ Horseplayer all about feeding
the Pokemon GO frenzy; $100 to
win on Pikachu & Ash

In 2014, I qualified for the National Handicapping Championship (NHC) through this contest by virtue of a second-place finish over 4,000-plus contestants, so I can attest to its value, especially for lower-budget players or those curious about playing the handicapping contest circuit but hesitant to take the cash bankroll plunge.

It's a free spin (Del Mar even provides past performances for each day's race), so there's no better time to sign up than now.

Registration closes on Friday.

Make no bones about it, this is a difficult contest to win, but at no out-of-pocket cost, it's one certainly worth playing, especially for NHC Tour members since Tour points are awarded to the Top 10% of finishers.  (On the latter, I picked up Tour points in 2015 via the (separate) November contest, so signing up here can only help those trying to qualify for the NHC by accruing Tour points.)

The premise is simple -- build the highest bankroll by Labor Day -- as are the rules:

• Make at least 20 mythical win, place and/or show wagers of $100 (the daily bankroll). 
• Del Mar selects one race per day, generally that afternoon's feature.
• Enter selections before the post time listed on that day's contest race. 
• The goal over the course of the 39-day meet is to make as high a profit as possible.
• A successful $100 straight "win" play on opening day on a 10-to-1 shot would, for example, put you atop the leaderboard at $1,000 ($22 win mutual x $50 minus $100 bet).
• A losing $100 wager puts you at -$100; 5 days of losing $100 bets = minus $500.
• The win "cap" is 30-to-1 (i.e. $3,000 of notional winnings).
• Starts Friday, July 15 and ends on Monday, Sept. 5.
• Top 2 finishers get 2017 NHC seats plus a $1,000 travel and hotel stipend.
• Top 50 finishers receive prizes (TBD),
• NHC Tour points to the Top 10% finishers.

Keys To Success

Hitting some long-shots is a necessity.  In the year I finished second, my $7,575.00 bankroll was about $800 below the winner but $1,125 ahead of the third-place player.  Other season-ending leaders had $6,500 (2015) and $5,068 (2013) for the summer contest, and $7,870 in the 2015 fall contest -- extremely solid returns on investment. 

If you have the time to make your pick closest to post time, seek value.  In the 2014 contest, I hit "cap" horses (39-to-1 and 29-to-1), but these were generally totally dismissed by the betting public (contest odds and mythical payouts shift as they would with real-money wagers).  In one such win, Meinertzhageni was an 8-to-1 morning liner who drifted up to 29-to-1 at post time.

Remember that California bettors hammer the favorites.  If you do not watch the California circuit that much, be aware that your 5-to-2 morning line favorite from trainers Bob Baffert or Phil D'Amato will be bet down to 3-to-5 by post time.  See "seek value" just above.  Either play another horse where there's more value or just skip the race if you cannot make the case for a rival.  Recall that you need to "bet" just 20 races to qualify, so a one-day pass at least sustains your bankroll. 

Avoid "chasing."  Say you end this coming weekend 0-for-3 and tied for last at minus $300.  Your inclination might be to ditch rational handicapping and take fliers on bombs in hopes of hitting one at the 30-to-1 cap.  Remember that, with a $100 daily bankroll, you can make up a lot of ground on the field with back-to-back 5-to-1 and 8-to-1 winners that make sense to play.  Stay patient.

Stick to "win" bets.  The spreadsheet on my September 2014 season recap taught me that I left money on the table in splitting my $100 bankroll into $50 win and place rather than going full bore with $100 to win on each day's selection.  Now, if you're way ahead of the pack in late August and are looking to sustain bankroll, I would endorse the more-conservative strategy or sticking to the sidelines.  Otherwise, $100 win is the way to go to move more quickly up the leaderboard. 

Use the contest for practice.  The chances of a Top 2 finish are slim, so take advantage of the free past performances, access to free race video and replays (via www.calracing.com). to increase your contest handicapping and playing skills. 

Have fun, and see you at the finish line!

A Lone Star State of Mind

I am not afraid to think or act outside the box at times.

It's a necessity for part-time NHC Tour members, like me, who are competent handicappers but maybe constrained by budget and/or schedule; in short, those of us with full-time jobs, kids and other obligations that keep us from entering every single handicapping contest on the planet.

Consistent with my core premise for finding playable long-shots, and thanks to a horse named Kenjisstorm, I am rolling the dice on 2 final qualifying events in a last-ditch bid to qualify for Vegas, including a qualifier halfway across the U.S. on Saturday, December 5.   Certainly not high stakes, I'm gambling around $300 (total) on me posting two decent contest results.  

NJ Horseplayer hitting the road
for December 5 NHC qualifier
in Texas!

To me, it's a lower-risk (and more fun) proposition than, say, similar entry fee tournaments on NHCQualify.com where, for one, I hate the outdated contest interface and, two, I am likely to face full-time sharks who have already dual-qualified for Vegas and are playing for Tour points and cash. 

Last week, I vaulted up the standings of the current Del Mar 2015 Bing Crosby Season Online Challenge to end the week in 91st place (of 2,495 players) by virtue of Kenjistorm's dominant win in Friday's contest race at 23-to-1 odds.  

With four races to go in the Del Mar contest, I probably need a fortuitous score on a long-shot or (less likely) run the table in the closing week to crack the top 2 for an automatic NHC berth.  Otherwise, a Top 100 finish would net me around 2,000 points to push me toward 5,000 in the Tour standings -- good enough to keep my NHC dreams alive via a Top 150 finish.

I'm figuring it'll take around 8,000 NHC Tour points to crack the Top 150 of the standings, and so I'd need to find another 3,000 points to have a puncher's chance at reaching Las Vegas.

Strategically and budgetarily speaking, I needed to find spots that fit my mindset.

So, in addition to the final NHC qualifying tournament of 2015 on HorseTourneys.com this Sunday, November 29 (up to 5 spots up for grabs at a $155 entry fee), I have already entered and booked my passage for the "Last Chance" NHC qualifier at Lone Star Park outside of Dallas, TX.

The latter might appear to be a ludicrous choice considering that I live in New Jersey, but credit the management at Lone Star Park for the free entries for all Tour players (and rewards card members) to next Saturday's season-ending tournament...and to American Airlines for same-day nonstop flights from Newark to Dallas for around $130. 

As far as I can tell, Lone Star Park is still accepting entries for the December 5 tournament.

So, on Saturday, December 5, I'll be flying to Grand Prairie, TX to compete for 1 of 2 NHC berths against horseplayers in the Lone Star State and to check out a new track in my life's travels.  

The rationale is simple.  

I am unavailable in the final live qualifier in my area (Monmouth Park on January 2, 2016), and candidly, it costs me less to fly to Dallas in one day to compete compared with a like offering at the track 15 minutes from my house (Monmouth's Jan. 2 tournament costs $200).  

Wish me luck!

NHC Qualifying Season Winding Down, But Del Mar's Fall Freebie Worth A Try

NHC Tour players like myself still looking to qualify for the $2.5 million National Handicapping Championship or simply pick up NHC Tour points are running out of opportunities to make it to Las Vegas in January 2016, but there's a great no-cost online tournament about to set sail this Thursday.

In conjunction with the 2015 Bing Crosby Meet at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club from October 29 through November 29, the track is offering 2 slots to the 2016 NHC through an online handicapping tournament that's akin to its summer tournament that attracted nearly 5,000 players.

Whereas most of the NHC Tour world is focused on this weekend's Breeders Cup Championship, players need to remember to sign up for the Del Mar fall contest by Thursday in order to be eligible for the top prizes in addition to NHC Tour points that will be awarded.  No late sign-ups.

Only 1,260 players have registered to this point, but I anticipate the final number of entrants will at least approach 2014's of nearly 3,500 players.  Hey, for me, the fewer the merrier in my bid to qualify through a Del Mar online contest for a second-straight season. 

In my view, Del Mar is providing a unique and great service for Tour and non-Tour players alike in offering two expenses-paid trips to the 2016 NHC in Vegas.

The contest format is unique, too, in that players are required to make at least 10 (of 22 possible) mythical bets of $100 each on 20 races (1 per day) run at Del Mar and 2 at this weekend's Breeders Cup (the Distaff on Friday and the Classic on Saturday). 

Win, place and show (or any combination thereof) are the only "wagers" offered, and there are no restrictions on the number of horse per race that can be "bet."  

For instance, if you are torn between American Pharoah and Beholder but are intrigued by 30-to-1 longshot Effinex in the Classic, you can split your $100 bankroll on Saturday between the three in any combination of win-place-show. 

A running bankroll is kept throughout the Del Mar season and updated daily.  

In short, you start at zero dollars and rise or fall in the standings based on your daily outcome.  If you hit a $10 winner (4-to-1 odds) on Day 1 on a $100 win bet you'd be at +$400 ($500 minus $100); lose your first bet and you start Day 2 at -$100.  Go 0-for-22 and finish tied for last at -$2,200. 

There is no exacta, trifecta, superfecta or any other kinds of "exotics" wagering; the emphasis, really, is to pick winners.  From past experience, I find that you'll need at least a handful of long-shots to have a shot at winning, so roll those dice. 

For more information or to register, visit the contest website or contact contest coordinator Chris Bahr at chris@dmtc.com.  Good luck to everyone that enters!

NHC Freebie Contest Goal: Hit 2 Cappers

Seriously folks, my post this morning is not out of crankiness because of Rutgers' last-second defeat to Washington State last night (the chicken and beef gyro/Greek tailgate kicked some tail, BTW)...

Nor that the NHC Tour put another of its five "free" members-only contests on the day of a live Monmouth Park contest -- the final one of its season, and where I will be spending this afternoon but had to quickly 'cap another 7 races outside the 23 races at Woodbine and Monmouth...

Nor that rain washed all races off the turf at Belmont...

Nor that I finished in the bottom 10% of the Del Mar Summer Handicapping Challenge and was nowhere close to defending my 2014 co-championship...

It's more out of the quality (or lack thereof) of races on today's 10-race program for No. 4 of 5 National Handicapping Championship (NHC) Tour "free" contests, open to all Tour members and offering four spots to the $2.5 million NHC in Las Vegas in January. 

The fields are mostly deep, but let's face it...pretty bad.

And, again, Belmont's off the turf.

Nonetheless, I find that it presents a great opportunity to take some shots on outsiders against morning-line favorites that, in my view, are nothing special.

My goal this afternoon (and assuming my top picks do not scratch) is to hit 2 of my bomber selections in the NHC Tour freebie and pick up some Tour points.  Otherwise, I do not put a ton of effort, admittedly, into a 1-day contest with 2,000 players; it's not worth a ton of my time.

Here is a look at the horses I entered as top selections for the NHC Tour freebie.  Tour members can still sign up here before first post of Race 6 from Woodbine around 3:30 p.m.

Woodbine 6: #7, Aldous Snow (8-1), is bound to sit closer to the front in a seemingly pace-less field and was not in as good a form going into last year's Grade 1 Northern Dancer; has a good shot.

Belmont 6: #11, You Lie (20-1), has early foot as evidenced two back at non-winners of 3 lifetime and broke her maiden over a sloppy Gulfstream track.  Off the turf and with a field scratched down to 5 runners, I hope to get 7-to-2.  

Churchill 7: #8, Trawee (20-1), seems to be improving, but I use the term loosely in a bad $5,000 starter allowance field, and I like that 3 back she was game against $25-$30k beaten claimers where she finished second at an elongated sprint distance.  No shoe-in, but facing a 9-to-5 favorite who has beaten up on fields at Thistledown and Something-Or-Other Valley.

Belmont 7: #7, Second City (30-1), is live, in my opinion, off a game effort last out vs. similar at Saratoga and has won before with Kendrick Carmouche aboard.  Worse long-shots than this one, especially for a gelding with a win over an off surface.

Belmont 8: #9, Saratoga Dreamer (10-1), WAS my top pick anywhere until scratched from the Allied Forces, so I will side with #5, Conquest Tsunami (12-1) in a race shortened to 5 furlongs, as I figure any horse tried in the Delta Jackpot (a tight bullring track) has enough speed to maybe surprise #8, Ready for Rye, whom others will view a shoe-in at 9-5 morning line.  Taking a stand against.

Churchill 9: #3, Emmajestic (6-1), was overmatched two back on the same oval against $75,000 optional claimers and drops down even more from Grade 2 company at Indiana Downs to an easier condition and very evenly-matched field.  

Woodbine 9: #2, Button Down (12-1), cuts back three-eighths of a mile and faces tougher here, but I'd take Joel Rosario over Luis Contreras any day and I sense this 4-year-old filly gets a nice stalking trip and can fire late, similar to her maiden-breaker in May. 

Churchill 10: #12, Renn Lake (30-1), faces awful $5,000 claimers here and returns to the site of his best speed figure (November 2014).  The last two efforts show, to me, that against this field Renn Lake will at least be game, as evidenced by in-the-money finishes in 50% of his 20 dirt starts.   

Belmont 9: I loved #7, Constantine (20-1), but with the field scratched down to 5 horses and off the turf, I take a shot at "front-running" #9, Majestic Guy (30-1) for VERY low-percentage connections but where the horse's lone win was on a sealed sloppy track. Play at your own risk. 

Woodbine 10: #2, Grand Arch (6-1), is my top pick in a Woodbine Mile that, in my view, is merely so-so.  I tossed half of the field (3 thru 5 and 7 thru 9) and simply figure Luis Saez will cleanly stalk rail horse Obviously and win a Grade 1. If my earlier picks are flops, I might switch to #6, Tower of Texas (15-1) at a price but am sort of spooked by his late collapse in his last out at Woodbine. 

From Out Of The Clouds

To quote Rambo, "nothing is over."

So I'm not being hunted down in a small mining town.

Rather, I am relaxing on a deck after a 5-mile run and sipping coffee while writing to you a few hundred yards from the Atlantic Ocean on Long Beach Island on a gorgeous Jersey Shore midweek morning.

This morning, squarely in 3,793rd place in the Del Mar 2015 Online Handicapping Challenge and despite my state of relaxation (and perhaps delusion), I refuse to believe I am out of the contest.

More contest players need to take this approach.

Play (and handicap) to the end, I say, rather than losing complete interest or tossing darts at horses with little chance of winning.

NJ Horseplayer agrees; "You just
don't turn it off."

Find a playable long-shot and take an educated risk.

11 Races To Go

There is plenty of time to make up ground; maybe not to repeat as one of two champions in 2014's tournament for spots in the National Handicapping Championship, but perhaps to come away with a Top 200 finish and secure some points in the NHC Tour standings.  

Right now, for example, 200th-place in the Del Mar contest only has an $1,100 bankroll.

According to the NHC Tour points calculator, 200th is worth nearly 2,000 NHC Tour points; not a bad haul considering the field of nearly 5,000 players.

Granted, I am $810 in the minus, but in this contest format, where one good longshot gets me back to the plus side and the cap on winners is 30-to-1, a $1,900 deficit (to 200th) is not insurmountable.

Now, Wednesday's contest race is not entirely conducive to a cap horse.

The contest organizers picked as today's contest race the $80,000 Brubaker Stakes at a mile on dirt and featuring only 7 horses (sans potential scratches and most horses here better on the turf).

Contrary to 2014's wide open contest races, this year's contest has featured thinner fields, but handicappers need to play the race(s) in front of them, and so I will follow the flock.

So far in the hole, I cannot sit out the race, but my goal is to end this week on the plus side of the ledger and surge to a positive bankroll, perhaps giving me a shot in the contests final six races over next week, culminating in what I am guessing will be the Del Mar Futurity on Labor Day (Sept. 7).

Including today's mythical $100 wager, I can easily make up $810 this week; or that's my goal anyway in playing this contest through the end.

Safety Belt Makes Sense

The Brubaker is not a great race.

The 2-to-1 favorite, Motown Man, is clearly the most accomplished dirt horse in the field.

On dirt, Motown Man boasts 4 wins and 5 in-the-money finishes in 13 lifetime starts and has amassed $276k of lifetime winnings on the surface for trainer Ted West.  The horse has a Cal-bred stakes win to his credit at today's one-mile distance.

There are come chinks in the armor, however, as I see it, in that more of the horse's wins are at the optional claiming and allowance ranks, and in my view he benefitted from a dream trip in his last win at Del Mar on July 31.  Otherwise, this is no 2-to-1 world-beater.

Second-choice Big Cazanova is 5-to-2 and a need-the-lead type who is the only frontrunner in the field, in my view, but is 1-for-15 lifetime in dirt starts and will be overbet as the pacesetter and with a 3-for-3 record at Del Mar (albeit all on when the track had a synthetic surface).

And do not let the perceived class plunge for Big Cazanova fool you; save for a graded stakes win on the horse's favorite surface (synthetic), the horse has been largely overmatched.

Co-third choice (4-to-1) Smooth Roller is a 4-year-old Hard Spun gelding making only his third career lifetime start, but 2-for-2 lifetime (both on dirt) and I anticipate will take money.

For long-shot players, this leaves few options among the other four, who are a combined 0-for-10 in races on the dirt, but for my money there is appeal in the rail horse, Safety Belt.

The 12-to-1 morning line in my view discredits a 6-year-old who at the end of his 2014 campaign nearly ran down multiple stakes winner Regally Ready in the $75,000 Big Bear Stakes at Santa Anita at a whopping 50-to-1.  Please excuse the grainy video, but in that replay note the late kick by Safety Belt in the stretch, and consider the horse had a very strong gallop-out.

In making his first start of 2015 for 0-for-31 (2015) trainer Ron McAnally, I suspect that bettors will be chilly on Safety Belt, an Argentine whose two wins in 2014 were on turf against optional claimers.

Plus, the horse's seven works since June 18 have all been on turf, signalling that this horse will be perceived as a field "filler" in what on paper looks to be a race to be had by one of the three top choices.

As a longshot player, I relish angles such as this where, in a short field, there's a chance of a horse being set off as the longest shot, but for no great reason.

There's enough in the Big Bear to make the case for Safety Belt, and so I am playing him ($100 to win) in today's Del Mar contest race and hoping to upset the applecart early this week en route to a return to a positive bankroll by week's end.

Exemplifying with my comments to Josh Kamis with The Tournament Edge, here we have what I perceive to be a vulnerable favorite and a long-shot (Safety Belt) with three in-the-money finishes in five lifetime dirt starts, and who showed some late foot against a dirt stakes field last fall.

All that jockey Felipe Valdez needs to do with this horse fresh off the bench, in my opinion, is save ground and sit just off the front-runners ahead of a late bid in the stretch.

Perhaps a stretch, but one worth taking with less than a dozen races remaining and significant ground to make up in this handicapping contest.

Primetime Churchill Case For Pharoah's Final Breeders Prep

Fanning speculation is a compliance no-no in my real line of work (equity research), but as the blogosphere is free game and handicapping horses involves elements of guesswork anyway, I have no reins in projecting American Pharoah's next race in preparation for the Breeders Cup on Halloween.

Call it a wild guess, but I'm saying American Pharoah will run on Saturday, September 19 at Churchill Downs, contrary to comments by owner Ahmed Zayat published Tuesday by the Courier-Journal's Jonathan Lintner that he'd prefer the Travers if his horse is sound.  

Here Me Out

The Asbury Park Press's Steve Edelson, who has covered pre- and post-Haskell 2015 masterfully, in my view, already articulated Monmouth Park's desire to bring Pharoah back to Oceanport for at least a $1 million under conditions dictated to Mr. Zayat.

Reading between the lines of Mr. Lintner's story this afternoon, however, a comment by Mr. Zayat about money not being the issue presumably eliminates the Pennsylvania Derby at PARX and, in all likelihood, the horse's return to Monmouth Park, as I see it.  

Haskell 2015 was very special to most who witnessed it, but my non-expert opinion is that a return could be a letdown and not as interesting a proposition to customers, who in the New York metro area are thinking NFL, college football and carting their kids from soccer game to soccer game.  

Photo from Courier-Journal
If 30,000 came out for a parade,
imagine how many would watch
American Pharoah race again
under the lights at Churchill

And using the movie business as a parallel, sequels frequently bomb, so I think a mid- to late-September return to Monmouth loses its luster as average attendance dips after Labor Day. 

Scratch Saratoga and California

I get the whole prestige thing with Saratoga and Del Mar, but my gut tells me the connections are interested in maximizing their opportunities for publicity and money with Pharoah before he goes to the stud farm following the Breeders Cup.

Similar to a boxing champion, I think they'd also be entirely justified (whether perceived or not) as ducking the challengers du jour, Texas Red and Frosted, in a potential Travers match-up.  

Mr. Zayat's comment on money otherwise underpins my contention that the extra $600,000 to sweeten the pot to ship Pharoah to the Spa would not be an overriding factor, much as it will not be in sending Pharoah to PARX or Monmouth instead.  

Made-For-TV Event The Key

I like to bet long-shots, and so I'll make such a pitch here that there are two major parties to the equation -- Churchill Downs and NBC -- that make Churchill, in primetime, viable on Saturday, September 19 and American Pharoah's best option for a final prep.

If you look at horse racing as a broader marketing vehicle, and NBC's stake in the mix as the Breeders Cup network, I think sending Pharoah to Saratoga or Del Mar does nothing to enhance the horse's brand or anything more than a slight ratings bump, at least in the case of the Travers, run in the late-afternoon on a Saturday in late-August when a lot of folks are on vacation.

Perhaps I am too cynical, but I absolutely think television exposure is a big part of the equation, and the Travers lacks the brand equity to intrigue Mr. Zayat.  

Ties That Bind To Churchill

Now, think back to Triple Crown season, when Pharoah shacked up at Churchill Downs before the Belmont and after, then paraded in front of 30,000 there on June 13 in an NBC telecast. 

Churchill is clearly American Pharoah's home away from (California) home and the fans in Louisville are hungry for this horse and the sport, as evidenced by the whopping 24.4 rating and 44 share for Belmont Day -- by far the top viewing market in the nation that afternoon.

Combine a track that can accommodate 100,000-plus people and Churchill's financial heft as a publicly-traded entity, plus the potential for NBC to promote the track's already scheduled "Downs After Dark" and probably to quickly create and finance (and draw decent horses to) a race under the lights featuring the Triple Crown champ and heads would turn.  

Such an option, in my outsider position, would appeal highly to these connections, especially since that date is also just about halfway between the Haskell and the October 31 Breeders Cup, or "less squeezed" and taxing a schedule on Pharoah if, say, entered in late August for the Travers and perhaps a tune-up race in late September/early October.

Picture This

Source: www.theguardian.com

No matter what you're doing on the afternoon of Saturday, September 19, you cannot wait to get home from your kids' sports, family function, college football tailgate (yes, we do that here in New Jersey with Rutgers) or from whatever else you're doing that morning and afternoon and put your feet up on the couch and flip on American Pharoah's final prep race before the Breeders in primetime.

NBC already draws eyeballs on Saturday afternoons, so the Notre Dame crowd already tuned in for the 3:30 p.m. (ET) tilt vs. Georgia Tech might stay put just a little longer to catch a glimpse of the dynamic Triple Crown winner's return to Louisville, Kentucky...just down the road from where presumably he will cap off his illustrious racing career in Lexington on October 31.

American Pharoah would not need to ship from California to Saratoga back to California and potentially somewhere else in September in search of another prep for the Breeders.

Much as I dislike several things about Churchill Downs as a fan and horseplayer, from the high takeouts to the well-publicized treatment of Secretariat's jockey, Pharoah's home away from home, in my view, makes a lot of sense, or perhaps is just a pipe dream in hopes of getting new people interested in watching the sport and enjoying the greatness of this champion horse.  

Handicapping Contests A "Bettor" Alternative

Similar to both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, I find American Pharoah unbeatable and, therefore, better used atop higher-denomination exacta and trifecta bets and strictly for use as a single in multi-race exotic wagers.

You may read a lot of handicappers (or mainstream media posing as handicappers) over the next 48 hours coming out of the woodwork to make a case for early-speed types Upstart and Competitive Edge or, if the race falls apart under ridiculously fast fractions, late-runner Keen Ice.  

I would tread carefully banking on what many say and think most of the competitors do not belong in the same discussion let alone on the same track, since it's pretty clear that American Pharoah is infinitely better than the 7 rivals entered for the $1.75 million Haskell.

That being said, there are three primary wagering-hub alternatives to betting on the race that should draw one's attention to enjoy the action on Sunday.

"What's A Handicapping Contest?"

Finally I am back in my wheelhouse, talking about my favorite extracurricular activity and less about hotels, restaurants and New Jersey Transit trains.

Simply put, in a handicapping (a.k.a. picking winning horses) contest, players pay a fee -- but some are free -- to compete in a field of other contestants for a share of prizes ranging from straight-up cash to entries to the $2.5 million National Handicapping Championship (NHC) in Las Vegas.

You might (or might not) have read that I qualified for my first NHC last season.  It was the thrill of a lifetime and a decent achievement for a weekender to compete against professionals, and a place I am attempting to revisit through this year's qualifying season.

The typical contest emphasizes picking winners and uses a pre-set selection of races from one or more tracks in which each player make a notional $2 win/place wager on one horse.  

If your horse wins, you get the dollar value of that horse's real win/place payout; pick the runner-up and get that horse's place payout.  Player with the highest total bankroll at the end wins.

Simple, right?

There are a host of options to choose from this Sunday and I'll highlight those worth considering.

Free Contests - Haskell Challenge

If you have never played a single handicapping contest, Monmouth Park's "Haskell Challenge" is probably the best place to start.

Free to enter at www.haskellgame.com

In the Haskell Challenge, there's no cost to enter, and you will try pick a winner for all 14 races on Sunday's program, and Monmouth Park provides free "past performances" that you can use as a guide to make your selections. 

Here, your mythical bets are $2 "across the board" wagers on one horse.  

If your horse wins, you collect the combined win, place and show values and move up the leaderboard.  Pick the second-place runner and you get the place and show payouts.  Pick third and get the show payout.  

Scoring is cumulative over the 14 races, with the winner getting a sweet prize package for two to the 2015 Breeders Cup in Lexington, Kentucky's Keeneland Race Course.

Second- and third-highest finishing bankrolls win $500 and $200 cash, respectively.

NHC Tour-Focused Contests

If you have never heard of the "NHC Tour," a $50 annual membership gives the more-frequent contest players the opportunity to qualify for the $2.5 million NHC Championship, which is a 3-day no-entry-fee handicapping contest in Las Vegas.  

Most NHC Tour-focused contests require an entry fee, ranging anywhere from $40 to $3,000, depending on the host site.  

However, NHC Tour membership also includes access to 5 "free" members-only online contests where the Top 4 finishers earn spots in Las Vegas.

This weekend happens to be one of those freebies.  

It's never too late the join the NHC, so if you want to play on Sunday fork over 50 bucks to become a member and gain access to the contest.

Sunday's contest is hosted by NHCQualify.com and features 10 races from 5 different tracks, including Woodbine, Saratoga, Del Mar, Ellis Park and Monmouth Park.  

Consider the 8th contest race -- the Haskell -- a "free square" (akin to a bingo card) and pick American Pharoah for a small notional return, or roll the dice on one of the bomber long-shots, and try to connect with some prices in the other 9 contest races.  Good luck to those who enter!

Cash-Prize Contests: Derby Wars and HorseTourneys.com

Federal laws allow for fantasy sports websites to legally run cash-based handicapping contests, so there's nothing offshore or suspicious about it. 

You've probably seen a zillion TV ads for FanDuel or with the snooty pitchman for Draft Kings, but there are horse racing-focused fantasy/contest sites worth attention. 

If you're interested in small-ante tournaments as low as $1-$3, or are a higher-stakes sort willing to pony up $375 for a shot at $5,000 first-prize, then visit Derby Wars.

The Derby Wars interface is probably the most interactive on the market, offering in-game chat between contestants and other user-friendly features.

Derby Wars is one of several NHC qualification hubs as well, although the less-than-favorable percentages (1/100 for the August 7 and 14 qualifiers) to get through Derby Wars and to Las Vegas in January keep me away from using the site more often, but I know the site is good and several people who prefer playing for real cash prizes instead of entries to NHC or other big tourneys. 

For reasons expressed above, as an NHC Tour member my loyalties are more with HorseTourneys.com, which is the most prominent NHC qualifying hubs for online handicapping contests but also has cash-prize tournaments for multiple players and, similar to Derby Wars, head-to-head action. 

Recall that, Thursday, I addressed the "takeout" theme.

Whereas 19% for Monmouth Park's daily doubles is among the best in the industry (i.e., the track keeps, as profit, 19 cents of every dollar bet), the typical HorseTourneys.com contest charges a mere 9.1% takeout.  

In essence, far more of players' contest entry fees go back to the players, which is why you should pay attention.  

For example, in Sunday's $850 "pick and pray" (i.e., enter your selections on all 8-12 contest races before the first goes off and let it ride), it costs a mere $12 and the top five finishers come away with respective cash winnings of $400, $200, $150, $75 and $25. 

Higher rollers can spend $190 to enter a 44-player tournament where top prize is $3,750 and the takeout is 10.3%. 

Options Abound

Sunday provides a good opportunity for prospective players to kick the tires on the nascent handicapping contest circuit and view wagering from a completely different perspective.

Strategies vary by player, but most will agree that in addition to needing a bit of good fortune in the race outcomes, it's important to sprinkle in some long-shot selections along the way; playing all favorites is not going to work, much as I would argue with Sunday's Haskell Invitational and is primarily the reason the Haskell is, in my view, not a great "win" bet scenario.

American Pharoah's probably going to be bet down to 1-to-9, so a $2 win bet to win 10 cents of profit just is not worth it (see more from Thursday's blog on the on-track betting menu). 

On that note, in my upcoming and final pre-Haskell blog, I will break down the Haskell 2015 field and propose some real-money betting thoughts for Sunday.

Phinding Phair Betting Value At Sunday's Haskell

Addressing an entirely different menu than yesterday's restaurant suggestions, here I tackle the betting options for Sunday's card at Monmouth Park, highlighted by what is now the $1.75 million Grade 1 Haskell (purse was increased yesterday from $1 million), scheduled to go off just before 6 p.m. and Race #12 on a 14-race program.

Please be clear that I am not making selections yet (I expect to do that in a later installment), but rather addressing the types of wagers that will be available, along with a brief reference to "takeout", or the house's cut of each bet you make.

Readers would be well-advised, first, to read Lenny Moon's explanation on the Equinometry blog of "Picking the Proper Parimutuel Pools" to get a tutorial on each specific wager.  Lenny provides thorough, simple explanations for wagerers based on each person's bankroll range. 

I share Lenny's belief that a person with a $40-$50 bankroll for the day should not be lured into multi-race "exotics," but rather focus on win-place-show or, at most, daily double and exacta bets.  If exacta and daily double are too confusing, then scale down your expectations and consider bets based on the program handicappers' selections or listening to the free race-by-race analysis provided over the loud speakers by Mike Curci and Brad Thomas for some win-bet ideas.  

In sum, you might hear people talking about bets like "Pick 4" or "Jersey Shore Pick 6" but those are akin to the lottery, even for the deeper-bankrolled players and pro handicappers.  Just ignore those.

3 Equitable Betting Options

Based on published "takeout" rates on Monmouth Park's website and the ease of these concepts, and consistent with the advice I typically give customers as a volunteer racing ambassador, I recommend 3 bets: win (or "win-place" in spots), exacta (straight or "box"...more on that later) and daily double.

There are several reasons -- the concepts are easy to grasp, one can profit a bit (more so with the exacta and daily double bets) and the "takeout" favors the bettor more than other betting options at Monmouth Park: 17% on win-place-show and 19% on exacta and the daily double.  

The lowest takeouts at Monmouth Park are 15% on the more-complex Pick 4 and Pick 5, where bettors need to pick the winner in a specified 4- or 5-race sequence.

Here you'll generally find your bigger-bankroll players, since the cost is higher for exponentially higher return potential; Monmouth, to simplify, only keeps as profit 15 cents of every dollar bet into the pool, which is way better than in the trifecta and Pick 3 pools (25% takeout, 75% final payout to bettors).   

Win or Win-Place (17% "Takeout")

Monmouth's takeout outstrips top rival summer tracks Woodbine (14.95%), Del Mar (15.4%) and Saratoga (16%), but is around the median for the industry, according to Horseplayer Association of North America's 2015 Track Ratings.  

On a minimum $1 win, place or show wager, in other words, Monmouth Park keeps 17 cents of profit, and your final win payout (say, $5 on a $1 win bet on a horse at final odds of 5-to-1) is from the other 83 cents in the parimutuel "pool".

The betting concept otherwise is simple -- bet on the horse you want to win, finish second (place) or third (show).  To be clear, betting $2 on a horse to "show" produces the "show" payout if the horse wins, not the higher win payout. 

The "show" payout is usually a waste of time (unless there's a "bridge-jumper" effect, as I'll discuss below as a likelihood for American Pharoah in the Haskell), since the "pool," or total dollar value of show bets track wide, is generally small.  In short, a 2-1 favorite who wins will pay (on a $2 bet) $6 to win ($4 profit, plus your initial $2 investment), $3 and change to place and $2.20 to show. 

Is it really worth betting $2 to show on a favorite (or most horses)?  Probably not, unless that 20-cent profit is going to set you up for life or merely boost your ego in making a winning bet.

I generally encourage straight win bets, or in the case of a long-shot (say, 10-to-1 odds or more) a $2 win-place bet that will still yield a profit even if your horse finishes second.

Exacta (19% "Takeout"), Straight or "Box"

Monmouth's is third-lowest in North America, according to HANA, behind little-known Kentucky Downs (18.25%) and the three New York tracks (Saratoga, Belmont and Aqueduct: 18.5%), giving a great option to bettors to bet in a high-return pool.  

I am increasingly surprised at customers' lack of insight on the exacta concept whenever I'm volunteering at Monmouth Park.  

Simply put, bet as little as $1 to pick the first- and second-place runners in order of finish to produce a much higher return on the wager than a win, place or show bet.

Say you logically think the #6, Asskicker, is going to pummel the field; but you're also into hunches and there's the #7 horse at 20-to-1, Gladys, like your great grandma.  

You're torn which to bet your last $2. 

Sure, you can come away with $2.20 and a slightly bigger ego on your win bet on the big favorite (#6), or $42 in the event that Gladys (#7) shocks the world.  

However, there's a more-profitable option: the exacta.

You can play a $2 "straight" exacta (go to the betting window and say "$2 exacta #6 and #7"), in which Asskicker must finish first and Gladys must finish second in order for you to cash a winning ticket.  

Another option is to hedge your bet and play a $1 "exacta box #6 and #7," in which case you win so long as Asskicker and Gladys both finish first and second.  

The payout will be much higher if Gladys upends Asskicker, but either way you'll come away with a more-lucrative payout than a win bet on Asskicker (and potentially Gladys).

Naysayers will argue that you're wasting $1 of your $2 right off the bat (since one of the bets will come out a loser if the other wins), but to me that's too technical for the Haskell Day crowd and I'd fully endorse the exacta box wager.

Daily Double (19% Takeout)

Monmouth Park again deserves credit here for one of the lowest takeouts in North America (see "DD Takeout" on the HANA chart).  

On Sunday, Monmouth will have daily double wagering starting on Races 1 through 13.

This is another simple concept -- for a minimum $1 wager, select the winners of back-to-back races.

The "double," back in the day, was only offered in 2 races (1 early, 1 late card) and the only "exotic" wager offered at the track, but seems to now play second fiddle to "multi-race exotics" like the Pick 3, 4, 5 and 6 featured on TVG and other horse handicapping venues.  

However, a 19% takeout is low relative to the Pick 3 (25%) and 10-cent Pick 6 (20%) and easier. 

Let's invoke American Pharoah's name here.  

You're convinced, like me, that he's going to route the Haskell field (Race 12) and will not be bet-able as a win, place or show proposition; who wants to risk $2 to make 10-20 cents of profit, after all.

Instead, you can play either a Race 11-12 daily double or Race 12-13 daily double, using American Pharoah as your single selection for Race 12.

You can bet 1 horse per race, or the entire field.

Say Gladys is the horse you like in Race 11.  As a 20-to-1 long-shot, you'd be well-advised to make a $1 daily double bet (go to the teller and say "Race 11, $1 daily double #7 with insert American Pharoah's # here").  

If Gladys upsets the field and Pharoah dominates the Haskell, you're in for a really nice return.

If you have $10 burning a hole in your pocket and love Pharoah but no idea which of the 10 horses to take in Race 13, you can play the Race 12 double with Pharoah on top of the entire 10-horse Race 13 field, hoping to maybe catch an enormous long-shot that turns your 10 bucks into, say, 30 bucks ("Race 12, $1 double Pharoah with ALL").  

The downside is maybe about $5-$6 of losses if the big favorite wins Race 13 in the above scenario and you only get a few bucks back for your winning double ticket with 2 prohibitive favorites.

1 Haskell Bet Worth Considering -- $2 ALL (except Pharoah) to SHOW

Extremely wealthy (and/or nutty) bettors will sometimes bet solely into the Show pool on a horse they sense is guaranteed to finish in the top 3 of a race.  

You'll generally find this at lower-tier tracks, such as in West Virginia, where the state mandates a 10% return on investment on show bets (10 cents to the dollar), contrary to most states (5%).  Very few places you'll be able to make a 10% return on investment in a minute or two...

I'm making up numbers, but in some cases, you'll see $500,000 bet into the show pool on 1 horse, compared with $10,000 in the win pool and $5,000 in the place pool.

The end result is 1-to-9 odds on the prohibitive favorite and what's known as a "bridge-jumper" (whereby the person(s) who bet gobs of money on that horse would jump off the nearest bridge if the horse finishes 4th or worse).

Show pools often skew a horse's odds, and based on the suspect field that Pharoah's facing in the Haskell, I am speculating that Pharoah could get sent off at 1-to-5 or 1-to-9.

Watch the Haskell
"show pool"

Keep an eye on the show pool, found on the infield tote board at Monmouth Park.

If infinitely more money is bet on Pharoah to show than to win, it might behoove you to bet $2 to show on all of the other horses in the field.

God forbid Pharoah stumbles out of the gate and pulls up in the backstretch to avoid potential injury and does not finish the race, all of that show money in Pharoah's pool would go to the top 3 finishers, and likely to the tune of at least $20 apiece.  

If each pays $20, your $12 of total show wagers (6 horses at $2 to show each = a $12 investment) would yield at least a $48 profit ($60 total return), and profiting is what betting horse racing is all about.

I would completely understand it, though, if you make a $2 win bet on Pharoah to have the ticket for history's sake, but consider backing that up with "$2 ALL, except Pharoah" to show.  

I have seen instances where bridge-jumper losses resulted in an $80 show payout on a horse, so for the risk of a $7-$8 loss, to me it's worth considering.

Next posting, I will take a look at a more-nuanced subject: "handicapping contests" being offered this weekend surrounding the Haskell Invitational.