It's early stages, but my "bad trip" horses (see August 3 post) at Saratoga are 1-for-3 thus far in their next-out race, producing an 18.7% return on investment on a notional $2 win-place bet.
- Sky Low Low, race 10, August 6: 3rd of 12, beaten three-quarters of a length (see Saving Ground Matters). Will keep on my list and potentially elevate next time with jockey upgrade. (-$4)
- Ed Charles, race 6, August 7: 10th of 12, some early interest but looked gassed. Will keep tabs as it was only his second lifetime race as a two-year-old. (-$4)
- Bottas, race 9, August 7: 1st of 7, perfect stalking trip and won a Grade 2 by almost two lengths. Will continue to monitor. (+$14.44)
- (Alakan shipped to Virginia for race 6 at Colonial Downs on Saturday, August 8, and finished second. I didn't play as this exercise is intended to focus solely on horses running at Saratoga.)
Three bad-trip horses are entered Sunday's and we'll continue with notional $2 win-place.
The first is unlikely to run as he'll only get into the race if it's scratched off turf and shifted to the dirt track (MTO). The latter two are unsurprising favorites after their prior races.
- Race 2: #9, Commitment Fund (MTO), 8/5: Not the least bit surprised he'd be favorite after July 5 debut and also that he's being stretched out from sprint debut.
- Race 5: #8, All Star Leigh, 5/2: Another two-year old race so hopefully horse doesn't bounce vs July 16 debut.
- Race 11: #9, Bosun, 7/2: My "more confident" play relative to All Star Leigh, especially if the rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz is confirmed. Hopeful the price drifts up a bit in a competitive 10-horse field.
Good luck if playing along!
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